FutureSox 2008 MLB Draft Discussion

[BearSox]

I figure that there will be an official draft thread posted in the SoxTalk forum come draft time (less than two weeks away!), but I figured to make a thread where we can talk about rumors and such, and express our opinions about draft until then. We have the thread/poll, but that seems limited to just our first round pick and perhaps potential picks afterwards. I thought I would expand the horizon and open up the discussion not only for the White Sox, but the whole draft in general as well.

 

Due to the fact we signed Scott Linebrink (type A free agent) and did not lose any significant free agents, we have lost our 2nd round pick to the Brewers. That gives us just two picks in the top 100. If my math is correct, that means our 1st round is at number 8 (well duh), and our 3rd rounder is at pick number 86. After doing some more math, I figured out our 4th round pick is at pick number 121. After that, it gets easy to find out which number we pick at though, since all compensation picks are taken care of. So our first ten picks look something like:

 

1st round - no. 8

2nd round - n/a

3rd round - no. 86

4th round - no. 121

5th round - no. 151

6th round - no. 181

7th round - no. 211

8th round - no. 241

9th round - no. 271

10th round - no. 301

11th round - no. 331

 

As far as projecting picks goes, things get realyl hazy past the first round, extremely hazy after the first 100, and almost impossible after the first 200. However, being the crazy SOB I am, I am willing to try and project our first 6 picks.

 

If I was the scouting director, this year I would look at college positional prospects mainly, you are true baseball players. Players that know how to play the game, and play it right. While pitching is still a need within the orginization, I feel we need to address hitting primarily (as evident by our low .200's batting average collectively in all of the minors).

 

________________________________________________________________________

 

1st Round (pick no. 8): I'd forget about Tim Beckham, Alvarez, Posey, Matusz, Hosmer, and Skipworth right from the beginning. Hosmer is off the list as I see no justification in paying some player coming out of high school who's never played in the MLB 7 million dollars. But if either of the other 5 dropped to 8, I'd glady take them. That leaves Crow, Smoak, Gordon Beckham, and Wallace. As of now, it looks like Cincy wants more pitching, so for the sake of it, we'll make Crow the pick at no. 7. Now, that leaves Smoak, Gordon Beckham, and Wallace as the only players I see worth no. 8. You gotta go with the switch-hitting 40 home run threat 1st baseman here. He's got a pretty swing from both sides, and is argueably the best hitter in this draft. PICK: 1B Justin Smoak, South Carolina

 

3rd Round (pick no. 86): Like I said previously, I'd focus on smart college positional players who have a feel for the game. Now, this area gets hazy for projecting picks, so the players I am mentioning, I am just guessing that they'll be here. Some possible selections I see here are: Jordan Danks, Brandon Crawford, James Darnell, Chris Carpenter, Brad Hand, and Jake Jefferies. Crawford has a lot of potential, but too many question marks. Darnell, probably won't be there. A pitcher is a thought, but Carpenter has injury problems and Hand is more of a thrower right now. While a catcher like Jefferies would be nice, I'll go with the guy the White Sox have had connections with in the past, even before John Danks, Jordan Danks. He can play all three outfield positions with plus D, and he comes from a good baseball backround. He also provides plus speed, and perhaps a possible leadoff hitter in the futre. However, he still needs development with the bat. PICK: OF Jordan Danks, Texas

 

4th Round (pick no. 121): If things weren't hazy before, they've gotten really hazy now. It's almost impossible to project who will be here due to the fact that every team and scouting director have differing opinions. But since I verged into this territory, I'll project that Danny Espinosa is here. His bat lags behind his glove at short, but he comes from UC Irvine, and knows how the play the game. He's a switch hitter with line drive power as well. I believe he is the type of player that we have been lacking in our system, and he fits perfectly in what I said I am looking for. PICK: SS Danny Espinosa, UC Irvine

 

5th Round (pick no. 151): I'm getting tired of typing here, and I am pulling names out of a hat it seems like now. A guy that I like who might be here is Ryan Lavarnway out of Yale. He knows how to hit and put up ridiculous numbers at Yale, but then again, he doesn't face elite competition. However, he's worth the risk as he can catch, but is raw defensively. If catching does not work for him, he can play the outfield as well. PICK: C/OF Ryan Lavarnway, Yale

 

6th Round (pick no. 181): Okay, I'm still looking for bats. Here, I'll take Xavier Scuggs, who has immense power potential, but is a bit of a free swinger. He's worth the risk. PICK: OF/1B Xavier Scruggs, UNLV

 

7th Round (pick no. 211): Still pulling names out of a hat here. Catcher is still a need within the organization, so I'll go with Ryan Babineau here. He's looks to be your prototypical backup/platoon type catcher, as he won't hit for average, but he can pop out about 10 and provide excellent D while he does it. PICK: C Ryan Babineau, UCLA

 

________________________________________________________________________

 

Another later round pick guy I kind of like is Tyler Webber, the catcher from Wichita St. Turns out he is a big White Sox fan, and he is one of the best defensive catchers in college.

[BearSox]

Here is my 1st round mock draft as of May 25th.

 

01. Tampa Bay Rays: SS Tim Beckham, HS-Georgia

02. Pittsburgh Pirates: 3B Pedro Alvarez, Vanderbilt

03. Kansas City Royals: 1B Eric Hosmer, HS-Florida

04. Baltimore Orioles: LHSP Brian Matusz, San Diego

05. San Francisco Giants: C Buster Posey, Florida St.

06. Florida Marlins: C Kyle Skipworth, HS-California

07. Cincinnati Reds: RHSP Aaron Crow, Missouri

08. Chicago White Sox: 1B Justin Smoak, South Carolina

09. Washington Nationals: MI Gordon Beckham, Georgia

10. Houston Astros: RHSP Shooter Hunt, Tulane

11. Texas Rangers: 1B/3B Brett Wallace, Arizona St.

12. Oakland Athletics: 1B Yonder Alonso, Miami

13. St. Louis Cardinals: RHSP Tim Melville, HS-Missouri

14. Minnesota Twins: LHSP Christian Friedrich, Eastern Kentucky

15. Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP/3B Ethan Martin, HS-Georgia

16. Milwaukee Brewers: RHCL Josh Fields, Georgia

17. Toronto Blue Jays: C/3B Brett Lawre, HS-Canada

18. New York Mets: OF Zach Collier, HS-California

19. Chicago Cubs: SS/RHP Casey Kelly, HS-Florida

20. Seattle Mariners: OF Aaron Hicks, HS-California

21. Detroit Tigers: CL Andrew Cashner, Texas Christian University

22. New York Mets: C Jason Castro, Stanford

23. San Diego Padres: OF/1B Ike Davis, Arizona St.

24. Philadelphia Phillies: SS/OF Anthony Hewitt, HS-Conneticut

25. Colorado Rockies: RHSP Jake Odorizzi, HS-Illinois

26. Arizona Diamondbacks: 2B/OF Jemile Weeks, Miami

27. Minnesota Twins: 3B Conor Gillaspie, Wichita St.

28. New York Yankees: RHSP Gerrit Cole, HS-California

29. Cleveland Indians: RHSP/CL Ryan Perry, Arizona

30. Boston Red Sox: SS/3B Reese Havens, South Carolina

[Chisoxfn]

I won't comment too much on the mock, simply because the reality is it is a total crapshoot so its kind of a best effort. Gerrit Cole to the Yanks is an interesting pick, considering Cole has an absolutely brilliant arm (top 5 type of arm). The problem is his mechanics are questionable and there are a lot of experts already scheduling his first arm operation.

 

One thing I want to comment is a name I really like, Brandon Crawford. This guy entered the season as one of the premiere collegiate players in the country (SS, UCLA) and he along with his Bruins had a down season but he has legitimate tools across the board (he has a lot of offensive tools, atlhough he still has to put everything together offensively) and could be an impact type of SS. If the Sox do pass on Beckham in the 1st round, than getting a SS like Crawford in the 3rd would be a major coup.

 

I do want to point out that I tend to disagree on your assessment of Danks. I think he is a much more pure hitter than you give him credit for (I've watched about 10 or so Texas games on TV this year and he has a very smooth swing, but I think he's the type of player that should garnish a decent amount of power (not 30Hr power, but 15-25 Hr's isn't out of the question). Definately think he has the ability to be a very very solid OFer.

[BearSox]

I won't comment too much on the mock, simply because the reality is it is a total crapshoot so its kind of a best effort. Gerrit Cole to the Yanks is an interesting pick, considering Cole has an absolutely brilliant arm (top 5 type of arm). The problem is his mechanics are questionable and there are a lot of experts already scheduling his first arm operation.

 

One thing I want to comment is a name I really like, Brandon Crawford. This guy entered the season as one of the premiere collegiate players in the country (SS, UCLA) and he along with his Bruins had a down season but he has legitimate tools across the board (he has a lot of offensive tools, atlhough he still has to put everything together offensively) and could be an impact type of SS. If the Sox do pass on Beckham in the 1st round, than getting a SS like Crawford in the 3rd would be a major coup.

 

I do want to point out that I tend to disagree on your assessment of Danks. I think he is a much more pure hitter than you give him credit for (I've watched about 10 or so Texas games on TV this year and he has a very smooth swing, but I think he's the type of player that should garnish a decent amount of power (not 30Hr power, but 15-25 Hr's isn't out of the question). Definately think he has the ability to be a very very solid OFer.

I agree with the assessment that Danks is a very good pure, natural hitter. The problem though is that he hasn't quite been able to put it together.

 

And yeah, outside of the first 10-15 picks in the draft, it's pulling names out of a hat and matching them with the team.

Edited May 26, 2008 by BearSox

[Dick Allen]

From Keith Law at espn.com:

 

Plenty of GMs were on hand at the SEC tournament, with Theo Epstein, Kevin Towers and Kenny Williams all making appearances. Williams also showed up at the ACC tournament on Saturday. The White Sox are rumored to be leaning towards either Georgia shortstop Gordon Beckham, who went 1-for-6 with a walk and three strikeouts in Georgia's two-and-out run, or Arizona State third baseman Brett Wallace for the No. 8 overall pick.

[daa84]

its pretty weird how similar smoak alonso beckham and wallaces numbers all are....seems like the main concern with wallace is his body, but he has dropped weight and leads off for ASU, 14 or 18 in SBs...some scouts say hes the best pure hitter in the draft ...i remember reading something from a GM saying "if wallace doesnt become a .300 hitter in the majors, nobody in this draft will"

 

all of those guys have a good eye at the plate, though alonso has drawn the most walks....itll be an interesting draft, and id be happy wiht anyone of those college guys, and even with skipworth if hes there

[Chisoxfn]

I actually watched a lot of clips of Wallace yesterday and my opinion is changing. He's in my better shape than when I saw him a year or two ago. My flaw with Alonso is out of all of the guys he seems to have the least athletic build.

 

I'm now leaning, Smoak/Beckham/Wallace if we go the college route & Skipworth if we go the prep route. I would take Crow if he somehow fell to us (But I can't see the Reds passing up on him).

[maggsmaggs]

I actually watched a lot of clips of Wallace yesterday and my opinion is changing. He's in my better shape than when I saw him a year or two ago. My flaw with Alonso is out of all of the guys he seems to have the least athletic build.

 

I'm now leaning, Smoak/Beckham/Wallace if we go the college route & Skipworth if we go the prep route. I would take Crow if he somehow fell to us (But I can't see the Reds passing up on him).

I saw some highlights of Alonso, and when he runs, it looks like he has weights on his feet. Slow kid. Might put up good numbers, but I hate guys that are so slow. I agree with your picks there, Smoak gives us a tremendous three hitter who will be a big time power guy, walk a ton, I question whether he will be a .300+ hitter, but his other numbers will be great. Beckham seems like a great five hitter, but people are questioning his ability to stick at short which is key, but then others have said he can, so that will be interesting. Wallace might be the best pure hitter of all of the guys, seems like a Todd Helton-type if Helton didn't play in Coors. Crow would be real interesting for me because he is a Mizzou guy and he is a guy who could succeed in the bullpen immediately this year and then start in the minors the following year. Wishful thinking, but I think he could be a solid pitcher in the pen for the Sox with a mid 90's fastball with movement that he commands tremendously, a great slider and solid change.

Edited May 26, 2008 by maggsmaggs

[Chisoxfn]

I saw some highlights of Alonso, and when he runs, it looks like he has weights on his feet. Slow kid. Might put up good numbers, but I hate guys that are so slow. I agree with your picks there, Smoak gives us a tremendous three hitter who will be a big time power guy, walk a ton, I question whether he will be a .300+ hitter, but his other numbers will be great. Beckham seems like a great five hitter, but people are questioning his ability to stick at short which is key, but then others have said he can, so that will be interesting. Wallace might be the best pure hitter of all of the guys, seems like a Todd Helton-type if Helton didn't play in Coors. Crow would be real interesting for me because he is a Mizzou guy and he is a guy who could succeed in the bullpen immediately this year and then start in the minors the following year. Wishful thinking, but I think he could be a solid pitcher in the pen for the Sox with a mid 90's fastball with movement that he commands tremendously, a great slider and solid change.

When it comes to Beckham in the clips I've seen he shows good range and a strong arm. I think he can stick there. Still, given that guys like Brandon Crawford should be around in the 3rd, I wouldn't have a problem going for a more raw/toolsy shortstop/middle infielder later on and going with the pure sluggers (who also appear to hit for average, so these guys aren't Adam Dunn's; just want to point out that I'm not being a hypocrite because I've made it clear that I hate pure sluggers in the sense that all they do is draw walks and hit for power; they also have to hit for an average to be worthwhile in my book).

 

Wallace has a sweet swing and shows some good power too. It could turn into a stellar pick because like Smoak he has very few holes in his game at this point which should lead to a quick path to the majors and they also have the ability to be game changing offensive players at the big league level. Wallace and Smoak are both better athletes by a long shot than Alonso (he looks slower than Paulie for god sakes).

[Chisoxfn]

Regardless I'd like to see the Sox take a different approach in the draft and take a boatload of toolsy but raw middle infielders. These are the type of guys that if they develop can be impact guys at SS/2B & CF (all areas of weakness in the Sox system).

[BearSox]

There's no question in my mind, if Smoak is there at 8, he should/will be the pick. I am thinking right now that the most of this Beckham/Wallace talk right now is because people are projecting Smoak to be gone by 8, which is a good possibility. Wallace will undoubtedly be there at 8, so perhaps we are sending our scouts to scout players we know we can get, and if one of the better prospects like Smoak or Skipworth fall, they'd be the pick.

 

At least I hope that's the case. I like Wallace, but picking him over someone like Smoak or Skipworth would be horrible, IMO.

Edited May 26, 2008 by BearSox

[BearSox]

Here's a good link to player scouting reports:

 

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/ev...y2008/index.jsp

[bighurt4life]

Hopefully we can take someone that plays a premier position in the draft. Wallace will probably end up at 1st (plus we already have our future 3b in Fields if he manages to stay at 3rd) Smoak and Hosmer also play 1b. First basemen are a lot easier to find in the later rounds than other positions because you don't really have to be able to do much defensively at 1st so teams can draft someone purely for their bat instead of looking for players will great tools who have to be able to do everything well, this way if their defense never comes around you can just stick them at first and call it a day. I'd like to see us go after Beckam because that will be a need position for us in the near future. (some would argue that it is a need right now)

[danman31]

If Jordan Danks is still available in the 3rd round it's an indictment of how bad/hard the draft is. Danks is a damn fine talent and if the Sox had a 2nd rounder and grabbed him I'd be ecstatic. He hasn't dominated this year like a first rounder would, but he is as good of an athlete as you will see and his defense has to be among the best for OFers.

[DBAHO]

There's basically a set top 9 in my mind right now.

 

The 2 Beckham's, Crow, Alvarez, Smoak, Alonso, Posey, Skipworth and Matusz.

 

Hosmer would make it a top 10 on talent, but who is going to pay $7M for a high school first baseman? I certainly don't see the Sox picking him, but maybe a team like the O's would.

 

So I will be annoyed if we end up picking Tim Melville or Brett Wallace, who we have been linked with a bit.

 

I would love to get either Posey or Skipworth, but I think both will be off the board before we pick.

 

So I'm actually going against the trend, and I'll say we'll pick Brian Matusz if he's still on the board.

 

He's got 3 good pitches, and although his fastball is only in the 87-92 range (although it'll get to 94 on occasions), it's his secondary stuff which has scouts excited.

 

Danks I certainly can't see lasting until the 3rd round, he's a 2nd round talent IMHO.

[DaTank]

Assuming Hosmer is gone by #8, and Smoak, Alonso, and Wallace aren't, I'd have to go with Smoak. He seems like the most complete player out of the group. Smoak is a great switch-hitting power-hitter that many compare to Mark Teixeira. Also has Gold Glove caliber D. Also, Wallace isn't called "The Walrus" but some scouts for no reason. The kid has a massive body.

 

[BearSox]

There's basically a set top 9 in my mind right now.

 

The 2 Beckham's, Crow, Alvarez, Smoak, Alonso, Posey, Skipworth and Matusz.

 

Hosmer would make it a top 10 on talent, but who is going to pay $7M for a high school first baseman? I certainly don't see the Sox picking him, but maybe a team like the O's would.

 

So I will be annoyed if we end up picking Tim Melville or Brett Wallace, who we have been linked with a bit.

 

I would love to get either Posey or Skipworth, but I think both will be off the board before we pick.

 

So I'm actually going against the trend, and I'll say we'll pick Brian Matusz if he's still on the board.

 

He's got 3 good pitches, and although his fastball is only in the 87-92 range (although it'll get to 94 on occasions), it's his secondary stuff which has scouts excited.

 

Danks I certainly can't see lasting until the 3rd round, he's a 2nd round talent IMHO.

From all indications, if Alvarez is gone by 3, the Royals no. 2 option is Hosmer, and I could see them willing to shell out 7 million on him.

[daa84]

Assuming Hosmer is gone by #8, and Smoak, Alonso, and Wallace aren't, I'd have to go with Smoak. He seems like the most complete player out of the group. Smoak is a great switch-hitting power-hitter that many compare to Mark Teixeira. Also has Gold Glove caliber D. Also, Wallace isn't called "The Walrus" but some scouts for no reason. The kid has a massive body.

 

is that wallace? jebus the scouting report that said he has thick thighs wasnt joking

 

but to be fair i heard that before this year he lost like 20 or 25 lbs...and we dont know when that pic was taken....still for the most part, its my opinion that pro athletes dont really have problems with their weight (some do) but when it comes down to making millions in free agency and winning world series, guys tend to get in shape...of course there are exceptions, but if wallace is hard worker it shouldnt be a huge deal....

 

i actually wouldnt mind taking wallace....he seems like a billy beane pick...great hitter, great approach, great discipline, but the body that scares scouts away

Edited May 26, 2008 by daa84

[BearSox]

Hopefully we can take someone that plays a premier position in the draft. Wallace will probably end up at 1st (plus we already have our future 3b in Fields if he manages to stay at 3rd) Smoak and Hosmer also play 1b. First basemen are a lot easier to find in the later rounds than other positions because you don't really have to be able to do much defensively at 1st so teams can draft someone purely for their bat instead of looking for players will great tools who have to be able to do everything well, this way if their defense never comes around you can just stick them at first and call it a day. I'd like to see us go after Beckam because that will be a need position for us in the near future. (some would argue that it is a need right now)

 

You act as if guys who can hit 30+ homers, bat around .300, and provide you with a high OBP grow on trees.

 

Beckham so far has been a one year wonder, and there is still doubt as to whether he can play short or not. Beckham is probably the least sure thing from the bunch of Hosmer, Smoak, and Wallace.

[bighurt4life]

You act as if guys who can hit 30+ homers, bat around .300, and provide you with a high OBP grow on trees.

 

Beckham so far has been a one year wonder, and there is still doubt as to whether he can play short or not. Beckham is probably the least sure thing from the bunch of Hosmer, Smoak, and Wallace.

 

nobody has hit 30 and .300 yet, all just projections. I'm just saying that finding guys who's only tool is hitting is a lot easier than finding guys who can hit, field, catch, throw and run. that being said, if beckham projects to not stick at short then I think you just take whomever is the best hitter of the bunch.

 

Honestly, none of us are scouts and baseball players are probably the most difficult players to project out of all the major sports so who the hell knows. I just would like to see us shore up the middle infield spots through this draft as our farm system is almost totally devoid of infield prospects

 

[maggsmaggs]

nobody has hit 30 and .300 yet, all just projections. I'm just saying that finding guys who's only tool is hitting is a lot easier than finding guys who can hit, field, catch, throw and run. that being said, if beckham projects to not stick at short then I think you just take whomever is the best hitter of the bunch.

 

Honestly, none of us are scouts and baseball players are probably the most difficult players to project out of all the major sports so who the hell knows. I just would like to see us shore up the middle infield spots through this draft as our farm system is almost totally devoid of infield prospects

But I'll bet if we picked the players for the Sox, we would get about as many hits as they would. Because baseball is such a mental game and the talent disparity is so great in differnet conferences and divisions, baseball is by far the hardest to predict. And with pitchers, the injuries that occur are so frecuent, that baseball is really just a roll of the dice.

[Ozzie Ball]

An article on Justin Smoak, breaking down his swing. Doesn't really tell us anything new but worth a quick read anyway.

http://www.baseball-intellect.com/Articles...stin-smoak.html

 

If he's there he'd be my pick.

 

The guy says he's gong to try and add one on Gordon Beckham sometime this week also.

Edited May 27, 2008 by Ozzie Ball

[danman31]

So I will be annoyed if we end up picking Tim Melville or Brett Wallace, who we have been linked with a bit.

 

So I'm actually going against the trend, and I'll say we'll pick Brian Matusz if he's still on the board.

 

He's got 3 good pitches, and although his fastball is only in the 87-92 range (although it'll get to 94 on occasions), it's his secondary stuff which has scouts excited.

I don't think Matusz will be there. I've heard his fastball is slower than that. 86-89 sounds closer to what I was told, but who knows. Velocity gets inflated in reports anyway.

 

I've heard very good things about Melville. He pitched in Columbia during the HS season and my buddy knows a Royals scout who watched him pitch that day. Says he really likes his delivery. I'm not big on drafting HSers in the 1st round, but I wouldn't be upset if they took him depending on who was on the board. Also, if Crow or Matusz are available and the Sox don't take them, I'm gonna be pissed. Screw needing position players, take best available.

[DBAHO]

From all indications, if Alvarez is gone by 3, the Royals no. 2 option is Hosmer, and I could see them willing to shell out 7 million on him.

Hey if that happens, that's very good news for us because it'll basically push another top tier guy down to our spot.

 

Alvarez at #2 (the Pirates IIRC) is what needs to happen there.

[DBAHO]

I don't think Matusz will be there. I've heard his fastball is slower than that. 86-89 sounds closer to what I was told, but who knows. Velocity gets inflated in reports anyway.

 

I've heard very good things about Melville. He pitched in Columbia during the HS season and my buddy knows a Royals scout who watched him pitch that day. Says he really likes his delivery. I'm not big on drafting HSers in the 1st round, but I wouldn't be upset if they took him depending on who was on the board. Also, if Crow or Matusz are available and the Sox don't take them, I'm gonna be pissed. Screw needing position players, take best available.

Before this season, I wouldn't have minded taking Melville this season. But his stock has really gone downwards, and although he'll go top 20, I think he's a reach in the top 10 now.

 

But he would still be an excellent pitching prospect. Just not on the same level as Crow or Matusz at this point.

 

Matusz to the O's at #4 is a possibility, but if they decide to go for say Alvarez, then I think there is a real chance of him sliding down to #8.