FutureSox 2008 MLB Draft Discussion

[Flash Tizzle]

Keith Law now has the Sox thinking Jason Castro as SF is supposedly on G. Beckham right now.

While I expect them to be screwed with their selection (ie, every appealing player will be drafted before us and OF COURSE this will be the ONE year with no surprises or overdrafts), I would think our talent evaluators have enough sense than to bother with Castro.

 

I've already set my expectations. Franchise player. No exceptions. We can't afford to be drafting mediocre catchers, future 4th OFers or Lance Broadway clones.

[fathom]

With the two Beckhams, Posey, Crow, Hosmer, Alvarez, Smoak, Skippy, and Alonso in the draft, you'd have to think we can get one of them.

 

I wonder if Posey might not fall to the Sox?

Edited June 1, 2008 by fathom

[BearSox]

If we draft Castro at 8 overall, I quit life.

[Flash Tizzle]

With the two Beckhams, Posey, Crow, Hosmer, Alvarez, Smoak, Skippy, and Alonso in the draft, you'd have to think we can get one of them.

 

I wonder if Posey might not fall to the Sox?

I read several days ago not only are teams drawn away from Hosmer due to this financial demands, but apparently, Boras was rumored to be demanding a major league clause in his contract similar to Andrew Miller. No way in hell we're messing with that even if he's available.

 

I keep forgetting about Alonso. I guess it's just strange to consider drafting the third best (or fourth, if you believe Wallace will be moved) first baseman in the draft at the 8th position. And from what I can quickly gather on him, there's concerns over his lack of power. Do you take a chance hoping he develops power? At 15 maybe, but I believe there should be more certainty in our position.

[fathom]

I read several days ago not only are teams drawn away from Hosmer due to this financial demands, but apparently, Boras was rumored to be demanding a major league clause in his contract similar to Andrew Miller. No way in hell we're messing with that even if he's available.

 

I keep forgetting about Alonso. I guess it's just strange to consider drafting the third best (or fourth, if you believe Wallace will be moved) first baseman in the draft at the 8th position. And from what I can quickly gather on him, there's concerns over his lack of power. Do you take a chance hoping he develops power? At 15 maybe, but I believe there should be more certainty in our position.

 

Alonso is an OBP machine though. In our park, anyone can hit 20 homers.

[fathom]

I read several days ago not only are teams drawn away from Hosmer due to this financial demands, but apparently, Boras was rumored to be demanding a major league clause in his contract similar to Andrew Miller. No way in hell we're messing with that even if he's available.

 

I keep forgetting about Alonso. I guess it's just strange to consider drafting the third best (or fourth, if you believe Wallace will be moved) first baseman in the draft at the 8th position. And from what I can quickly gather on him, there's concerns over his lack of power. Do you take a chance hoping he develops power? At 15 maybe, but I believe there should be more certainty in our position.

 

I know Sox won't take Hosmer, but hopefully one of the top 7 picks will go to him. BTW, I heard today that the Mets think Pedro Alvarez could fall to the 18th pick.

[Dick Allen]

From Keith Law ESPN.com

 

• Brett Lawrie is heavily in Cincinnati's mix at No. 7, while Jason Castro has popped up at No. 8 to the White Sox or perhaps at No. 9 to Washington. If the Reds don't take a college pitcher, then both Houston (Aaron Crow?) and Texas (Shooter Hunt, Christian Friedrich) will likely go in that direction, unless a top player falls to Texas due to signability concerns.

 

 

[Flash Tizzle]

I know Sox won't take Hosmer, but hopefully one of the top 7 picks will go to him. BTW, I heard today that the Mets think Pedro Alvarez could fall to the 18th pick.

If we're willing to pass on Alvarez, it better be because of Smoak or Crow. Not that those two are more projectable, but i'd atleast understand the financial difference. It's a nice consolation prize.

 

However, if Smoak and Crow are gone (which would be all but guaranteed if Alvarez falls to us) I'll have just about enough of our drafting philosophies. We finally have a reasonable draft slot, for the first time in fifteen years, and it can't be thrown away with a safe pick. Passing on talent two straight seasons because of Boras and slot recommendations is pitiful.

 

[fathom]

Tribune saying Sox will take Beckham or Wallace, but of course, won't pay over slot money.

[bighurt4life]

Alvarez could easily be the pick. Not all teams are sold on his defensive ability at third, and could be moved to LF or 1B.

 

i stand corrected

[Flash Tizzle]

Tribune saying Sox will take Beckham or Wallace, but of course, won't pay over slot money.

After reading some of the players we've been associated with lately, I've come around on Wallace by default. I'm just tired of this slot recommendation crap. Especially when it seems to involve nothing more than devotion to an MLB policy, which, if broken, incurs NOTHING. And doesn't anyone think it's a problem that the teams who have no issue with slot recommenations, such as Detroit/Boston/NY, have great talent fall to them?

 

[Chisoxfn]

From what I've read, that would be severely over-drafting him.

Castro is hard to peg. He has a lot of physical ability but is considered very raw (and much more a project than the typical college player). I have no problem with him, its just there are other guys that I grade out higher. I'm really hoping Skipworth falls to the Sox (or Smoak), Otherwise I'm leaning Wallace/Beckham.

 

The interesting thing is if the Giants took Beckham, you'd than be talking about Smoak potentially sliding down (again probably not to 8, but you never know).

[whitesoxbrian]

With the two Beckhams, Posey, Crow, Hosmer, Alvarez, Smoak, Skippy, and Alonso in the draft, you'd have to think we can get one of them.

You named 9 players. We have the 8th pick. Checking everything, I think we have a good chance of landing one of the 9.

 

BTW, if Alvarez is there for us and we don't pick him, you can count on one remote control going through a TV.

 

Look, if a guy gets compared to Pujols, you take him. Use Crede as trade bait for somebody, however, you keep Fields around. If Alvarez gets hurt or isn't progressing, he's there for a reason, and maybe if Quentin goes back to his old self and gets hurt repeatedly, we can try Fields in LF and Alvarez at 3B.

Edited June 2, 2008 by whitesoxbrian

[westy21]

Here is my 1st round mock draft as of May 25th.

 

01. Tampa Bay Rays: SS Tim Beckham, HS-Georgia

02. Pittsburgh Pirates: 3B Pedro Alvarez, Vanderbilt

03. Kansas City Royals: 1B Eric Hosmer, HS-Florida

04. Baltimore Orioles: LHSP Brian Matusz, San Diego

05. San Francisco Giants: C Buster Posey, Florida St.

06. Florida Marlins: C Kyle Skipworth, HS-California

07. Cincinnati Reds: RHSP Aaron Crow, Missouri

08. Chicago White Sox: 1B Justin Smoak, South Carolina

09. Washington Nationals: MI Gordon Beckham, Georgia

10. Houston Astros: RHSP Shooter Hunt, Tulane

11. Texas Rangers: 1B/3B Brett Wallace, Arizona St.

12. Oakland Athletics: 1B Yonder Alonso, Miami

13. St. Louis Cardinals: RHSP Tim Melville, HS-Missouri

14. Minnesota Twins: LHSP Christian Friedrich, Eastern Kentucky

15. Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP/3B Ethan Martin, HS-Georgia

16. Milwaukee Brewers: RHCL Josh Fields, Georgia

17. Toronto Blue Jays: C/3B Brett Lawre, HS-Canada

18. New York Mets: OF Zach Collier, HS-California

19. Chicago Cubs: SS/RHP Casey Kelly, HS-Florida

20. Seattle Mariners: OF Aaron Hicks, HS-California

21. Detroit Tigers: CL Andrew Cashner, Texas Christian University

22. New York Mets: C Jason Castro, Stanford

23. San Diego Padres: OF/1B Ike Davis, Arizona St.

24. Philadelphia Phillies: SS/OF Anthony Hewitt, HS-Conneticut

25. Colorado Rockies: RHSP Jake Odorizzi, HS-Illinois

26. Arizona Diamondbacks: 2B/OF Jemile Weeks, Miami

27. Minnesota Twins: 3B Conor Gillaspie, Wichita St.

28. New York Yankees: RHSP Gerrit Cole, HS-California

29. Cleveland Indians: RHSP/CL Ryan Perry, Arizona

30. Boston Red Sox: SS/3B Reese Havens, South Carolina

 

I don't see the Sox passing on Beckham, I also want them to get a lot of highschoolers after the first round just to get the system younger.

[BearSox]

I hope that the only reason why Smoak and Crow aren't being talked about are because they are projecting them to be gone by 8. Because if Smoak and/or Crow are there at 8 for some reason, and we draft freaking Gordon Beckham (who I think is extremely overrated) or Brett Wallace (or even worse, Jason Castro) over them, I would cry a lot and throw a big hissy fit.

Edited June 2, 2008 by BearSox

[heirdog]

Alonso is an OBP machine though. In our park, anyone can hit 20 homers.

 

What about a guy that hit 35 one year in a pitcher's park and then came to Sox and is on pace to hit less than 12?

 

But in all seriousness, if we can't get Smoak, we need another big time prospect, which Alonso could be.

[heirdog]

I hope that the only reason why Smoak and Crow aren't being talked about are because they are projecting them to be gone by 8. Because if Smoak and/or Crow are there at 8 for some reason, and we draft freaking Gordon Beckham (who I think is extremely overrated) or Brett Wallace (or even worse, Jason Castro) over them, I would cry a lot and throw a big hissy fit.

 

Under the radar, KW style and no doubt a Dave Wilder recommendation, respectively.

[Cerbaho-WG]

Sickels:

 

 

Here is my pseudo-prediction for the first round of the draft. I'm trying to find the right balance between known team interest in these players, past organizational philosophy, and both best-player-avaialble and team needs. I'll push this to the supplemental round and see how things to.

 

1) Rays: Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS: Seems like the most logical pick to me.

2) Pirates: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt: Pirates prove they are willing to spend $$.

3) Royals: Buster Posey, C, Florida State: Royals opt for close-to-ready bat.

4) Orioles: Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego: Can't pass him up.

5) Giants: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina: Excellent bat, close to ready.

6) Marlins: Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS: The rumors make sense to me.

7) Reds: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri: Best player available.

8) White Sox: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia: System thin on hitting could use him.

9) Nationals: Aaron Hicks, RHP, California HS: Nats decide he's a pitcher.

10) Astros: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky: Astros opt for "safe" college pitcher.

11) Rangers: Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS: Rangers shell out big bucks.

12) Athletics: Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona State: Classic Oakland pick.

13) Cardinals: Tim Melville, RHP, Missouri HS: Cards opt for high-quality local talent.

14) Twins: Brett Lawrie, INF, Canada HS: Twins pick cold-weather bat, hoping for another Morneau and worried that he won't last to 27..

15) Dodgers: Ethan Martin, RHP, Georgia HS: Best high school pitcher still on board tempts Dodgers; he fits their mold.

16) Brewers: Josh Fields, RHP, Georgia: Should help in the majors quickly.

17) Blue Jays: Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami: Would be a steal at this slot and I think he's got a good chance to fall here.

18) Mets: Jason Castro, C, Stanford: Should reach the majors quickly, solid all-around.

19) Cubs: Casey Kelly, SS, Florida HS: Cubs will pay the premium.

20) Mariners: Anthony Hewitt, INF, Connecticut HS: Mariners can't resist his tools.

21) Tigers: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane: Tigers feel they receive a steal here.

22) Mets: Andrew Cashner, RHP, TCU: Mets opt for another safe, affordable pick to pair with Castro.

23) Padres: Ryan Perry, RHP, Arizona: Will get a chance to start but ends up in bullpen eventually.

24) Phillies: Zach Collier, OF, California HS: He's toolsy like the Phils like, and not quite as raw as some they have drafted in the past.

25) Rockies: Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Illinois HS: Rockies have a known interest in him.

26) Diamondbacks: Gerrit Cole, RHP, California HS: Arizona can't resist his arm strength at this slot.

27) Twins: Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State: Twins opt for gritty midwest option to help third base situation.

28) Yankees: Brett Devall, LHP, Florida HS: Money not an object, Yanks take projectable lefty.

29) Indians: Chris Carpenter, RHP, Kent State: Sneaks into first round on arm strength and affordability.

30) Red Sox: Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina: Fits their philosophy well and they are known to love him.

 

SUPPLEMENTAL ROUND

31) Twins: Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami: pairs nicely with Gillaspie in future Twins infield.

32) Brewers: Wade Miley, LHP, Southeastern Louisiana: live arm lefty can't be resisted.

33) Mets: Ike Davis, OF, Arizona State: Mets pick up third college pick, Davis is a potential steal here.

34) Phillies: Mike Montgomery, LHP, California HS: pairs with Collier to provide two fine California preps.

35) Brewers: Tyler Stovall, LHP, Alabama HS: young pitcher to mix with two college guys ahead of him.

36) Royals: Tyler Sample, RHP, Colorado HS: Royals return to recent high school orientation with this pick.

37) Giants: Isaac Galloway, OF, California HS: Giants can't resist toolsy athlete.

38) Astros: Ross Seaton, RHP, Texas HS: Astros snare local talent.

39) Cardinals: Dan Schlereth, LHP, Arizona: Successful college pitcher with high strikeout rate attracts Cardinals.

40) Braves: Zeke Spruill, RHP, Georgia HS: Perfect fit for Braves.

41) Cubs: Robbie Ross, LHP, Kentucky HS: Young lefty arm proves hard to resist.

42) Padres: Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest: Local guy, good track record hitting well for a weak college team.

43) Diamondbacks: David Cooper, 1B, California: D-backs can't believe he falls this far but he does.

44) Yankees: Kyle Lobstein, LHP, Arizona HS: Combines with DeVall to give Yanks two young lefties, if they spend the money to sign them.

45) Red Sox: Scott Gorgen, RHP, UC Irvine: Statheads would love this pick.

46) Padres: Tim Murphy, LHP, UCLA: Like Perry, he gets a chance to start but ends up in bullpen eventually.

[Hatchetman]

i just want to be on the record of saying i don't like beckham. reminds me of jeff blauser. i'd be happy with smoak, wallace, or hosmer (unlikely).

[JDsDirtySox]

My brother went to the Cape this past summer... and really loved what he saw out of Castro.

Don't get caught up in the projected slot/order of players.

[fathom]

i just want to be on the record of saying i don't like beckham. reminds me of jeff blauser. i'd be happy with smoak, wallace, or hosmer (unlikely).

 

I agree that Beckham's overrated, but at least it would be a pick that should produce a MLB starting position player. I just got done talking to someone who saw him at the SEC Tournament and the Athens regional, and they were incredibly unimpressed by Beckham.

[DBAHO]

SaberScouting's top 100;

 

SaberScouting.com Draft Top 100

 

1. Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA)

2. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt

3. Buster Posey, C, Florida State

4. Brian Matusz, LHS, San Diego

5. Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS (CA)

6. Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina

7. Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia

8. Aaron Crow, RHS, Missouri

9. Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS (FL)

10. Shooter Hunt, RHS, Tulane

11. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)

12. Casey Kelly, SS, Sarasota HS (FL)

13. Christian Friedrich, LHS, Eastern Kentucky

14. Brett Wallace, 1B, Arizona State

15. Zach Collier, RF, Chino Hills HS (CA)

16. Ethan Martin, RHS, Stephen’s County HS (GA)

17. Aaron Hicks, CF, Wilson HS (CA)

18. Brett Lawrie, C, Brookswood SS (CAN)

19. Josh Fields, RHR, Georgia

20. Andrew Cashner, RHR, Texas Christian

21. Tim Melville, RHS, Holt HS (MO)

22. Gerrit Cole, RHS, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)

23. Reese Havens, 2B, South Carolina

24. Mike Montgomery, LHS, Hart HS (CA)

25. Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami (FL)

26. Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State

27. Jason Castro, C, Stanford

28. Alex Meyer, RHS, Greensburg HS (IN)

29. Robbie Ross, LHS, Lexington Christian Academy HS (KY)

30. Aaron Weatherford, RHR, Mississippi State

31. Zach Putnam, RHS, Michigan

32. Ross Seaton, RHS, Second Baptist HS (TX)

33. Brad Holt, RHS, UNC-Wilmington

34. Ryan Perry, RHR, Arizona

35. Jake Odorizzi, RHS, Highland HS (IL)

36. David Cooper, 1B, California

37. Isaac Galloway, CF, Los Osos HS (CA)

38. Sonny Gray, RHR, Smyrna HS (TN)

39. Brett Marshall, RHS, Sterling HS (TX)

40. Brett DeVall, LHS, Niceville HS (FL)

41. Wade Miley, LHS, Southeastern Louisiana

42. Dennis Raben, RF, Miami (FL)

43. Zach Stewart, RHR, Texas Tech

44. Ike Davis, 1B, Arizona State

45. Nick Maronde, LHS, Lexington Catholic HS (KY)

46. Tyson Ross, RHR, California

47. Daniel Schlereth, LHR, Arizona

48. Roger Kieschnick, RF, Texas Tech

49. James Darnell, RF, South Carolina

50. Tyler Ladendorf, SS, Howard JC (TX)

51. Kyle Lobstein, LHS, Coconino HS (AZ)

52. Tyler Stovall, LHS, Hokes Bluff HS (AL)

53. Tyler Sample, RHS, Mullen HS (CO)

54. Bryan Price, RHR, Rice

55. Brett Hunter, RHR, Pepperdine

56. Niko Vazquez, 2B, Durango HS (NV)

57. Stephen Fife, RHS, Utah

58. Adrian Nieto, C, American Heritage HS (FL)

59. Chris Carpenter, RHS, Kent State

60. Tanner Scheppers, RHS, Fresno State

61. Jamie Mallard, 1B, Middleton HS (FL)

62. Brent Warren, CF, Xavier HS (IA)

63. Kyle Weiland, RHR, Notre Dame

64. Anthony Hewitt, CF, Salisbury HS (CT)

65. Tyler Chatwood, RHS, East Valley HS (CA)

66. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Pitt CC (NC)

67. Daniel Webb, RHS, Heath HS (KY)

68. Evan Frederickson, LHR, San Francisco

69. Cody Satterwhite, RHR, Mississippi

70. Tim Murphy, LHS, UCLA

71. Zack Cox, 3B, Pleasure Ridge Park HS (KY)

72. Jaff Decker, RF, Sunrise Mountain HS (AZ)

73. Brad Hand, LHS, Chaska HS (MN)

74. Austin Dicharry, RHS, Klein-Collins HS (TX)

75. Petey Paramore, C, Arizona State

76. Lance Lynn, RHS, Mississippi

77. Aaron Shafer, RHS, Wichita State

78. Jordy Mercer, SS, Oklahoma State

79. Scott Bittle, RHR, Mississippi

80. Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest

81. Scott Green, RHS, Kentucky

82. Anthony Gose, LHR, Bellflower HS (CA)

83. Seth Lintz, RHS, Marshall County HS (KY)

84. Destin Hood, CF, St. Paul’s Episcopal HS (AL)

85. Logan Forsythe, 2B, Arkansas

86. Brett Jacobson, RHR, Vanderbilt

87. Donnie Roach, RHS, Bishop Gorman HS

88. Ryan Flaherty, 2B, Vanderbilt

89. Zeke Spruill, RHS, Kell HS (GA)

90. Eric Thames, LF, Pepperdine

91. Ryan Westmoreland, CF, Portsmouth HS (RI)

92. Bobby Lanigan, RHR, Adelphi

93. Bobbu Bundy, RHS, Sperry HS (OK)

94. Robbie Grossman, LF, Cy-Fair HS (TX)

95. D.J. Mitchell, RHR, CLemson

96. Josh Lindblom, RHR, Purdue

97. Andrew Liebel, RHS, Long Beach State

98. Xavier Avery, CF, Cedar Grove HS (GA)

99. Scott Gorgen, RHS, UC-Irvine

100. Ryan Weber, RHS, Clearwater Central Catholic (FL)

 

Other Names To Watch

 

Jay Austin, CF, North Atlanta HS (GA)

Zach Cone, CF, Parkview HS (GA)

Jordan Danks, CF, TExas

Cutter Dykstra, CF, Westlake HS (CA)

Anthony Ferrara, LHS, Riverview HS (FL)

Carlos Gutierrez, RHR, Miami (FL)

Jason Knapp, RHS, North Hunterdon HS (NJ)

Daniel Marrs, RHS, James River HS (VA)

Brandon Miller, C, Woodward Academy HS (GA)

Brett Mooneyham, LHS, Buhach Colony HS (CA)

Shane Peterson, RF, Long Beach State

J.P. Ramirez, LF, Canyon HS (TX)

Xavier Scruggs, 1B, UNLV

Blake Tekotte, CF, Miami (FL)

Joe Wieland, RHS, Bishop Manogue HS (NV)

Vance Worley, RHS, Long Beach State

[DBAHO]

And their top 25 in detail;

 

1. Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA)

Bio: 6′0, 188, Bats R, Throws R, 18 years old

The Skinny: Beckham has been coming on hard toward the top spot since the pre-season high school showcases, where he was wowing scouts at each stop. Beckham flashed elite glovework that will play at short in the big leagues, an advanced bat, and the athleticism, makeup, and aptitude to project across the board. Some question his power projection and prefer surer bets from the college ranks. On the other hand, there’s a chance for 5 plus tools and a team willing to take some risk has a good chance at having a future star at the most premium position. Beckham’s the favorite to go #1 to Tampa Bay.

Pros: Athleticism, Glove, Bat

Cons: Power, Distance from MLB

Comparison: Edgar Renteria with more power

Adjusted OFP: 63

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

2. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt

Bio: 6′2, 212, Bats L, Throws R, 21 years old

The Skinny: The consensus top prospect at the start of the year has shown an impact bat that makes scouts salivate, but they have been salivating less lately due to a mid-season hand injury sapping some of Alvarez’s power and hurting his timing. He’s hardly falling down draft boards with a special bat and a track record with wood bats to match, but a possible move to 1B and the $9.5 million demands advisor Scott Boras has floated could make teams pause. That being said, he’s got a special bat and won’t get out of the top 3.

Pros: Bat, Power, Track Record

Cons: Boras, Injury, Position

Comparison: Lefty-Hitting Aramis Ramirez

Adjusted OFP: 62

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

3. Buster Posey, C, Florida State

Bio: 6′1, 205, Bats R, Throws R, 21 years old

The Skinny: Posey simply continues to gain steam from being a fringe first rounder at the beginning of the season, possibly even enough to make himself the top pick in the draft. With a close-to-sure-thing compact stroke, gap power, good athleticism, plus skills behind the plate, excellent makeup, and a affordable price tag, he is a safe pick for teams and as good a bet to reach his ceiling in the draft. His package of tools compares favorably an athletic MLB backstop like Russell Martin, but Posey is more of a .280 hitter with 12-15 homeruns, stacking up with Martin everywhere else.

Pros: Athleticism, Glove, Bat

Cons: Power, Ultimate Upside

Comparison: Russell Martin with a less impact bat

Adjusted OFP: 61

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

4. Brian Matusz, LHS, San Diego

Bio: 6′4, 200, Bats L, Throws L, 21 years old

The Skinny: Matusz has been on the radar for the top of the 2008 draft since he didn’t sign out of high school as a 4th round pick by the Angels in the 2005 draft. Matusz operates with above-average stuff for a lefty, in the low 90’s with the fastball, and flashing a plus curve and plus changeup. He also uses a slider as a fourth pitch and has good command, but relies more on overwhelming college hitters with stuff rather than feel. His command is inconsistent and his mechanics are stiff, two problems that feed off of each other. Matusz also frustrates scouts by pitching backwards rather than off of his fastball. He shows the ability to underachieve with big time talent, but has all the makings of an elite lefty starter if it clicks, and is a safe bet to contribute in a big league rotation.

Pros: Stuff/Polish Combination

Cons: Loses Feel at Times

Comparison: Andy Pettitte or Jeff Francis

Adjusted OFP: 61

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

5. Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS (CA)

Bio: 6′3, 195, Bats L, Throws R, 18 years old

The Skinny: Skipworth is the best prep catching prospect since Joe Mauer; that seems to be a good place to start with the highest ceiling in the draft. Skipworth passed the biggest test for a high school hitter when he proved elite hitability with a 18-for-18 stretch against tough southern California prep pitching. He also flashes big power from the left side and a plus arm behind the plate, giving him three plus tools. Along with that, Skipworth has also passed the biggest test for prep catchers by showing drastically improved receiving and throwing skills that now allow you to project him comfortably behind the plate in the big leagues. The only reason he isn’t ranked higher is the track record of high school catchers; there’s a lot of things that go wrong and it’s just hard to successfully project prep catchers—it speaks volumes that he’s in the top 5. The Marlins are known to love him at #6; he won’t get past the Fish barring a weird set of occurrences.

Pros: Bat, Power, Arm

Cons: High School Catcher

Comparison: Brian McCann

Adjusted OFP: 60

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

6. Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina

Bio: 6′4, 215, Bats B, Throws L, 21 years old

The Skinny: Aside from Pedro Alvarez, Smoak may be the most potent bat in this draft class. To go along with tremendous upside at the plate, the switch hitting first baseman also is a plus defender at first base with a good arm. He also has raked for three years at South Carolina and in the Cape Cod League after his freshman year, but had some trouble making contact with Team USA after his sophomore year. Smoak displays plus power to all fields and projects as a relatively safe power bat, especially after yet another big year for the Gamecocks.

Pros: Bat, Power, Defense

Cons: Can Only Play 1B

Comparison: Switch-Hitting Paul Konerko

Adjusted OFP: 59

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

7. Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia

Bio: 6′0, 185, Bats R, Throws R, 21 years old

The Skinny: Everyone loves players at premium positions who can swing the bat and Beckham fits that description perfectly. There’s some question as to whether he can remain at shortstop, but he continues to answer any and all questions about whether his college production at the plate is for real, as he’s put up a huge season at Georgia. He may be a fringy shortstop, and not every scout is sold on his sometimes awkward swing mechanics, but Beckham put up some big numbers with wood bats in the Cape League and has done all he can to prove he can be an everyday big league bat up the middle.

Pros: Bat/Power/Position Combo

Cons: Swing Mechanics, Can he play SS?

Comparison: Michael Young with less batting average

Adjusted OFP: 58

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

8. Aaron Crow, RHS, Missouri

Bio: 6′2, 205, Bats R, Throws R, 21 years old

The Skinny: Crow exploded onto the prospect scene when he lit up the radar guns in the Cape Cod League and hasn’t missed a beat since. He’s showed a 93-95 mph fastball, plus slider, and good command; he isn’t just another thrower with velocity at the top of the draft. That being said, he’s slipped from top 3 consideration with some inconsistency late in the season, an over-reliance on the slider, and some funk in his delivery. Despite a few concerns, every pitcher has some warts, and not many show the ability to dominate with three pitches and command, so Crow won’t get out of the top ten.

Pros: Fastball, Slider, Track Record

Cons: Delivery, Inconsistency

Comparison: John Maine with more velocity

Adjusted OFP: 58

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

9. Shooter Hunt, RHS, Tulane

Bio: 6′3, 200, Bats R, Throws R, 21 years old

The Skinny: Collegiate power arms with a track record of success are always a commodity in the draft, and behind Crow, Shooter Hunt is the best of that crop. Hunt continues to rack up the strikes out for Tulane, and despite a few too many walks, he is still a potential front of the rotation starter with two plus pitches in a low 90s fastball and hammer curve along with an average changeup. His delivery has some effort in it and that causes some command and control issues, but the stuff borders on unhittable when it’s on and he can be a closer if he changeup and third pitch don’t work out. Texas is rumored to be on Hunt and he probably doesn’t get past #11. Here’s Frankie’s report on Hunt.

Pros: Power stuff, Long track record

Cons: Command/Control, Delivery

Comparison: Max Scherzer with a better breaking ball

Adjusted OFP: 57

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

10. Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS (FL)

Bio: 6′4, 215, Bats L, Throws L, 18 years old

The Skinny: Hosmer has been targeted as a top pick for the 2008 draft since he was a freshman in high school. His American Heritage squad is a baseball factory that will likely take home the National Championship this year, as the clinching out for this season’s state title was a Hosmer 94 mph fastball. While he has been up to 95 on the mound with a sidearm delivery and average slider, his calling card has been his bat all along. Hosmer has big power and contact skills that have been proven against top competition with wood bats for years. He also has a propensity to chase high fastballs and his mechanics will break down at times. He won’t be limited only to first base; he has the plus arm to play in the outfield, but is a 40 runner and would be fringy defensively so first base is the best fit. Advisor Scott Boras has reportedly asked for $7 million and that could cause Hosmer to fall a long way or even honor his commitment to Arizona State.

Pros: Bat, Power, Track Record

Cons: Position

Comparison: Justin Morneau

Adjusted OFP: 57

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

11. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)

Bio: 6′2, 215, Bats L, Throws L, 21 years old

The Skinny: Consistency is the name of the game for Yonder Alonso, and that is exactly why a team is likely to make him a top 15 pick. There are many big bats to choose from this year but Alonso is considered by most to be one of the safest to reach their ceiling. There’s a lot to like about this slugging first baseman, including the fact that his big bat may only cost slot money. He also has an advanced approach at the plate, plus power to all fields, above-average defense, and great makeup. He won’t wow you with any of his tools and is a below-average runner, but is in the top tier of talent and will land easily in the top half of the first round.

Pros: Polished bat, Consistency, Full Package

Cons: Problems with advanced arms, Lack of standout tool

Comparison: Adrian Gonzalez

Adjusted OFP: 57

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

12. Casey Kelly, SS, Sarasota HS (FL)

Bio: 6′3, 195, Bats R, Throws R, 18 years old

The Skinny: Like Hosmer, Kelly has also been on the radar for the top of this draft for years. He has a scholarship to play Quarterback for Tennessee in the fall, and is a mid-first round talent as a pitcher, but his calling card is his standout play as a premium shortstop. In a slender 6′3 frame, Kelly flashes present high-level defense that some say is already big league ready with solid range, great hands, and a plus arm that reaches the mid-90s on the mound. With long limbs and some present strength, Kelly flashes present average raw power with projection for more and also has average speed and the makeup that allows many to project him as a Derek Jeter-like star shortstop. Many scouts question how much Kelly’s bat will play in pro ball, but there were similar concerns on Jeter and other athletic all-around players coming out of high school as well—all the elements are there for success with the bat. That being said, at this juncture, Kelly can look tentative and weak with the bat at times, like more of a slap hitter. That may just mean he projects as a solid contact guy as he fills out, rather than a HR threat. Kelly has the confidence, swagger, dynamic personality, and work ethic to be the superstar his tools suggest, and this allow scouts to project the necessary improvements. If Kelly ends up not having a big league bat, a Michael Main-level pitching prospect with a lightning quick arm action, no injury history. 91-93 mph fastball, and present plus curveball is a pretty nice backup plan. The Tigers, Cubs, and Yankees are all known to be on Kelly, and all appear willing to meet his over-slot pricetag to buy out his commitment to play QB and SS for the Vols, but would get some relief by being able to spread the bonus over five years under the dual sport provision by MLB. Here is Kiley’s in-depth Kelly update with video along with other mentions here, here, and here

Pros: Defense, Arm, Full Package

Cons: Bat, Distance from MLB

Comparison: Derek Jeter

Adjusted OFP: 56

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

13. Christian Friedrich, LHS, Eastern Kentucky

Bio: 6′3, 210, Bats R, Throws L, 21 years old

The Skinny: Here comes the second tier of college lefties following Brian Matusz. Mainly because he lacks the power fastball that Matusz possesses, Friedrich is a notch behind. But, armed with a filthy plus curveball and a fastball that hovers around 90, the Eastern Kentucky southpaw looks very attractive considering he still has a ton of projectability for a collegiate player. While scouts like Friedrich’s changeup as a solid third pitch, some have concerns about his consistency with fastball command and reliance on his go-to curveball, along with the low level of competition at small Western Kentucky.

Pros: Curveball, Knack for strikeouts

Cons: Control, Bad college competition

Comparison: Barry Zito, Oakland Version

Adjusted OFP: 56

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

14. Zach Collier, RF, Chino Hills HS (CA)

Bio: 6′2, 185, Bats L, Throws L, 17 years old

The Skinny: Collier burst onto the scene late, jumping from a solid mid-round prospect to a first-rounder after getting 3 hits off of Aaron Hicks (#16 on our list) and taking a Hicks 93 mph fastball deep in front of a gaggle of scouts. He was under the radar because of a short track record (due to not attending the big high school showcases), and is a 17 year old senior that hasn’t had much high level instruction. That being said, scouts caught onto Collier due to his smooth, short left-handed stroke with a high finish and backspin loft. His projectable frame allows scouts to dream on his best tool, raw power, that is mostly pull-side pop, developing into a consistent, pole-to-pole plus tool. He has present above-average speed and an average arm that will play in center, but as he fills out and the power develops, he’ll likely move to right field, where he fits as a solid defender. You could compare Collier’s late rise to earlier versions of late-rising, smooth-hitting, left handed prep OF prospects: in 2005 there was Jay Bruce and in 2002, Jeremy Hermida. Collier is a rawer prospect, as mentioned above, but has the same profile and while not as tooled up or known as fellow Southern California prep outfielders Aaron Hicks and Isaac Galloway, he’s gifted in the right places with big raw power, present hitability, and projection. Bruce and Hermida were more highly-regarded at draft time, ranked 12th and 13th respectively by Baseball America in deeper drafts, but the upside and profile is the same. Collier is a risk/reward pick, but one that has shown, despite being raw, that he can hit better than more polished and instructed prospects, and that’s the tool teams want to bet on. He’s wowed a number of teams in pre-draft workouts and, in a shallow draft like this, he’s a prospect teams are willing to take as high at #9 (Nationals) and the 10-20 range has multiple interested teams.

Pros: Advanced Bat, Power, Projection

Cons: Distance to MLB, Will likely move to corner

Comparison: Raw Version of Jay Bruce

Adjusted OFP: 56

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

15. Ethan Martin, RHS, Stephens County HS

Bio: 6′2, 195, Bats R, Throws R, 18 years old

The Skinny: Martin was a known top prospect coming into the year due to his powerful bat at third base, but burst onto the scene as a top pitching prospect when he shut down Eric Hosmer’s American Heritage HS with a 93-95 mph fastball and above-average slurve and changeup the flash plus. He’s a good athlete that projects as a plus defender at third and repeats his delivery well. The delivery does have some effort in it and it affects his command, but Martin has made strides in refining his approach. Being somewhat new to full-time pitching, his stuff isn’t always crisp everytime out, and there are some rough edges to his game, but scouts like his aggressive demeanor and, like Kelly, Martin has top-round talent as a hitter and pitcher that gives teams a backup option if pitching doesn’t work out.

Pros: Power Stuff, Full Package

Cons: Feel for his craft

Comparison: Micah Owings or GIl Meche

Adjusted OFP: 56

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

16. Aaron Hicks, CF, Wilson HS (CA)

Bio: 6′2, 175, Bats B, Throws R, 18 years old

The Skinny: Hicks has been highly regarded for years and is a tools factory. He’s been up to 97 on the mound and many scouts grade his arm in center as an 80. He has 70 speed that gives him big-time defensive and baserunning potential and has flashed above-average power and hitting ability against the best competition southern California has to offer and as a regular on the national showcase circuit. He also flashes a plus slider along with his plus-plus mid-90’s fastball, but lacks polish on the mound and also has said he has no interest in pitching professionally. So, he projects slightly better as a center fielder and wants to be a cente rfielder, you just get a backup plan on the mound built it if he can’t hit. Hicks gets a lot of comparisons to a similar talent from southern California in the 2003 draft, Adam Jones. Scouts have serious reservations about Hicks’ bat and that devalues all the flashy tools if he doesn’t show the refinement to make contact (or show command on the mound). This ranking is a hedging of sorts, but teams have more polarized opinions of Hicks, who has an enormous upside.

Pros: Arm, Speed, Elite Specimen

Cons: Lacks hitability and polish

Comparison: Adam Jones

Adjusted OFP: 56

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

17. Brett Lawrie, C/UT, Brookswood SS (Canada)

Bio: 5′11, 200, Bats R, Throws R, 18 years old

The Skinny: Lawrie has a lot of helium headed into the days before the draft, but if you asked most scouts who saw him last summer, they may tell you that they saw this coming. The Canadian slugger has played catcher effectively and has showed big upside on offense and defense, flashing plus raw power and a plus arm behind the dish. He also has above-average speed, solid contact skills, plate discipline, and developing defensive skills behind the plate. Lawrie also is surprisingly refined at the pate for a Canadian prospect that hasn’t had as many at-bats as most elite American prep prospects. His advanced bat was made known to teams when he had a 21-for-30 hitting streak on one swing through spring training camps, and hit 3 homers in a double-header on another trip thorough camps, facing some extended spring and low-minors arms, but also some high-level arms, including extra base hits off of Luke Hochevar and Kyle Davies. Lawrie continues to allay fears of a minor league flameout with all-out makeup and some scouts think he may work too hard. The advanced bat and periodic loss of interest defensively may even push him off of catcher to speed up the path to the big leagues, but Lawrie could play almost anywhere on the field except shortstop. Toronto and Minnesota are known to have interest in the mid-first round.

Pros: Bat, Power, Arm

Cons: Raw Tools, Lack of competition

Comparison: Upside of Eric Byrnes or Russell Martin

Adjusted OFP: 56

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

18. Brett Wallace, 1B, Arizona State

Bio: 6′2, 235, Bats L, Throws R, 21 years old

The Skinny: Wallace is the annual “bad body, big bat” player of this year’s draft. To be fair, though, Wallace does not have the awful body or lack of athleticism that people act like he has and his bat is just too good to last long in the first round. Following another video game like season for Arizona State, Wallace is firmly established as one of the best pure bats in the class with elite contact skills and patience that will be his meal ticket. Some scouts question his power, but all agree it’s at least average. He’s played some third base this season, but will ultimately be a serviceable first baseman. Wallace’s body and power work together to elicit a wide range of projections on power and longevity, but everyone thinks he’s a big league hitter.

Pros: Track record, Pure hitter, Patience

Cons: Body, Position, Upside

Comparison: Will Clark or Lefty-Hitting Kevin Youkilis

Adjusted OFP: 56

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

19. Andrew Cashner, RHR, Texas Christian

Bio: 6′5, 185, Bats R, Throws R, 21 years old

The Skinny: This 6-foot-6 righty has been flying up the boards of late, and at least in our eyes, is now the top college reliever in the class. With a fastball that’s been reportedly touching 98 MPH, the TCU righty has been close to untouchable out of the pen. Teams may balk at his lack of track record and closing experience, but others will salivate over his electric arm, projectable frame, and makings of an out-pitch slider. Many teams like his clean arm and feel for a changeup enough to project him as a starter with his newfound velocity, but Cashner lacks feel and command at times and is still raw. Some teams think he could start, which would boost his profile significantly, and there is reportedly interest in the top 10, all the way up to #6 (Marlins). Otherwise, teams like Seattle, Philadelphia, and the Mets are rumored to be looking college reliever in the late teens and early 20s.

Pros: Fresh arm, Fastball velocity

Cons: Track record, Polish

Comparison: Chris Ray

Adjusted OFP: 55

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

20. Tim Melville, RHS, Holt HS (MO)

Bio: 6′5, 210, Bats R, Throws R, 18 years old

The Skinny: Melville has not had the spring that everyone anticipated, and with that in mind, his stock has slipped from the top half of the first round. On the other hand, given the weakness in prep pitching this class has, he still may be the first of that crop to go, and that still may come in the top 20 picks. Projectable arms with fastballs that touch the mid 90’s will always be hot commodities. Melville is a good athlete that would play both ways if he were not sign and go to North Carolina. He has good command of a low 90s fastball and a curve that was plus in the pre-season showcases. Melville’s stuff has been down some during the season while his command and changeup have been inconsistent. He has shown flashes this spring and has shown the stuff, feel, and big projection to be taken in the middle of the first round.

Pros: Projection, Two-pitch combo, Shows feel

Cons: Lackluster spring, changeup

Comparison: Adam Wainwright

Adjusted OFP: 55

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

21. Reese Havens, 2B, South Carolina

Bio: 6′1, 195, Bats L, Throws R, 21 years old

The Skinny: After some so-so college seasons in his freshman and sophomore years, Havens really seemed to turn a corner in the Cape Cod League last summer and this spring with a new batting stance. It looks like second base is a more likely landing spot than shortstop, as he’s rough around the edges defensively. Havens is more quick than fast with good instincts and solid professional makeup. Some teams think his arm is enough to team with his athleticism and savvy and stick him behind the plate. His bat from the left side is more than enough to carry him to the elite levels as a professional player and he has the advanced hitting ability, approach, solid gap power, and good athleticism to entice a team to pop him in the 20s. Boston is known to have interest in Havens since he was in high school. Here’s Frankie’s breakdown of Havens’ swing.

Pros: Pure hitter, Top competition

Cons: Position, Power, Upside

Comparison: Kelly Johnson

Adjusted OFP: 55

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

22. Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami (FL)

Bio: 5′10, 175, Bats B, Throws R, 21 years old

The Skinny: Weeks is known by most as Rickie Weeks little brother, but their games are very different. Jemile has a long track record at Miami and with Team USA of success against top competition. Weeks is a switch-hitter with a quick short stroke and a contact approach with surprising pop for his size and gap power. He’s a plus runner and a heady baserunner that could steal 30 bases. He’s a good fit at second base as he has a below-average arm and no better than average range at the keystone, but has the quick feet and good hands to be a solid defender.

Pros: Bat, Speed, Experience

Cons: Lacks upside at the plate and in the field

Comparison: Chone Figgins without defensive flexibility

Adjusted OFP: 55

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

23. Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State

Bio: 6′1, 195, Bats L, Throws R, 20 years old

The Skinny: When speaking of Gillaspie, there seems to be a split among teams on just how good he is. However, those who like him like him a lot. Gillaspie, in our eyes, profiles as an outstanding pure hitter, but one who may never hit for more than average power, though. He has an advanced approach and uses the whole field and has a gritty and aggressive approach to the game. He also projects to stay at the hot corner as he’s a solid athlete with an average arm.

Pros: Proven with wood bat, Athleticism, Makeup

Cons: Lacks upside at the plate and in the field

Comparison: Paul O’Neill offensively

Adjusted OFP: 55

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

24. Josh Fields, RHR, Georgia

Bio: 6′0, 180, Bats R, Throws R, 21 years old

The Skinny: Fields was a highly regarded talent in last year’s draft as a sometimes dominating, sometimes baffling college closer. As a Scott Boras client, his demands turned teams off and he went unsigned as a 2nd round pick to the Braves. He showed the same flashes of brilliance this season with a fastball hitting 98 and a Brad Lidge-level two-plane slider, but now lacks leverage as a senior and while his command is improved, it still needs some work. The command issues stem from his max effort mechanics that cause Fields to leave the ball up—a pitch that will get hit more and more often at higher levels. He also has a slight build that gives some pause about his durability, but scouts universally praise his makeup. He has a chance to pitch this season in a big league bullpen, but could also languish in the minors longer than expected with command problems like recent first round college relievers like Ryan Wagner, Joey Devine, and Craig Hansen. Fields is a high risk/high reward pick that contenders in the second half of the draft may pop hoping for big league bullpen help this season.

Pros: Fastball/Slider Combo, Top Competition

Cons: Control, Mechanics, Size

Comparison: Brad Lidge with less command

Adjusted OFP: 55

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

 

25. Brad Holt, RHS, UNC-Wilmington

Bio: 6′4, 195, Bats R, Throws R, 21 years old

The Skinny: Holt burst onto the scene this season as a legitimate high pick when his projectable frame, smooth mechanics, and clean arm were sitting at 93-95 and hitting 97 late in games for UNC-Wilmington. He now has serious helium with his newfound velocity, and shows uncommonly good command for a big body with a velocity spike. Holt’s slider shows the potential to be above-average but it’s inconsistent now, while he also shows feel for a changeup and a good approach to pitching. Teams are poised to pop Holt as high as the late first round and he seems like a lock to be gone by the 50th pick. Once you get past the top tier of talent in the draft, teams looking for pitching want to bet on starters with clean deliveries and good command of a plus fastball with the ability for three pitches. While he hasn’t faced elite competition and lacks a present out-pitch, Holt meets those criteria, and he has a fresh arm, solid makeup, and no injury history. The Mets and Brewers are known to have interest: both clubs draft players of Holt’s type and both have multiple high picks and a budget where Holt would be attractive as a high upside arm that would be signable in the top 50 picks. Here’s an earlier mention from us of Holt’s meteoric rise.

Pros: Velocity, Fresh Arm, Command

Cons: Lack of high level experience and go-to out pitch

Comparison: Max Scherzer

Adjusted OFP: 55

SaberScouting Prospect Profile

[Wanne]

I don't see the Sox passing on Beckham, I also want them to get a lot of highschoolers after the first round just to get the system younger.

 

To me...high schoolers are somewhat wasted picks unless it's pretty apparent they'll forgo their college scholarships. As for Beckham....the thing that I don't get is why would the Sox take him instead of guys like either Smoak, Wallace or Alonso when they invested so heavily in young SS Juan Silverio.

[Cerbaho-WG]

Because you take the best person available and Silverio is actually 20.