FutureSox 2008 MLB Draft Discussion

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Looks like Bureau was wrong about Regier getting fired...

Didn't he get reassigned though? That's the nice way of saying fired from your position and slotted somewhere else. And if that's true, Bureau did leak that before the press did.

 

On topic with the thread though, I just hope we get a guy with a star ceiling and none of this "might be a solid regular" s***. Anyone who compares to AJ isn't the type of guy you take 8th overall. Let's not forget the Sox signed AJ for next to nothing after he got non-tendered, and there are always capable backstops with decent bats looking for starting jobs at small salaries. I don't want Alonso either, so I hope he's not seriously being considered.

[chimpy2121]

From John Manuel's blog:

 

• The White Sox have been linked to Arizona State’s two-time Pac-10 triple crown winner, Brett Wallace, at the No. 8 spot, but the Sox may be more interested in another Pac-10 lefthanded hitter. Chicago farm director Alan Regier was given extensive scouting duties in the wake of Dave Wilder’s firing. Regier, a former assistant coach at California, is the godfather of Stanford catcher Jason Castro. Regier’s recent promotion to the scouting side has fueled speculation that Castro, whose profile is similar to Chicago’s current catcher, A.J. Pierzynski, could be the Sox’ pick.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=286#more-286

 

 

If we take a catcher not named Posey or Skipworth in the first...wow.

[fathom]

Take Crow if he's there! Contreras will be a free agent after next season, and it's not like we have any possible options coming along in the minors (Poreda will be a set-up man, in my opinion).

 

I can't imagine the outrage on here tomorrow if we take Castro.

Edited June 4, 2008 by fathom

[maggsmaggs]

Take Crow if he's there! Contreras will be a free agent after next season, and it's not like we have any possible options coming along in the minors (Poreda will be a set-up man, in my opinion).

 

I can't imagine the outrage on here tomorrow if we take Castro.

I would love Crow and hope he drops to the Sox. Like you said, we don't have many options in the minors and like Hawk said yesterday, elite starting pitching prospects can net you any position prospect. Plus, it would be cool to have a Mizzou guy that I have seen pitch in college with the Sox. I have also heard that Crow is a pretty relaxed guy and not a wild child like many college ball players are.

[DBAHO]

Saber Scouting's Top 15 Mock Draft in depth;

 

1 - Tampa Bay Rays

Frankie’s Projection: Buster Posey, C, Florida State

Kiley’s Projection: Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA)

Frankie: Posey, from all indications, still seems to have the inside track. Beckham fits their profile of past drafts but I’m sticking with what I’ve consistently heard all spring. They love Posey and he’s done nothing to change their minds.

Kiley: Looks like I’m going to be the wordy one. Beckham seems to have been the favorite for some time now, and is atop the SaberScouting Top 100, but not without a late charge from Buster Posey, who is hitting out of his mind in the college postseason. The decision appears to come down to those two, and both are at positions of need for the Rays, but the choice comes down to one question: upside or probability? Tampa’s track record says best available, with a lean toward the toolsy athletic type, and everything I’ve heard indicates Beckham is the guy. That being said, it’s a narrow choice, it’s impossible not to like Buster Posey, and scouting director R.J. Harrison very well may prefer Posey straight-up. This performance may have helped Beckham, and here’s the indication that the Beckham family is getting.

An enterprising Rays fan over at great blog DRaysBay (Justin Downie, to be exact), gives us a sneak peak at the right, into the alternate universe where Frankie is correct.

 

#2 - Pittsburgh Pirates

Frankie’s Projection: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt

Kiley’s Projection: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt

Frankie: There doesn’t seem to be much reason to disagree on this one. Finally, it looks like the Pirates will do right by their fan base and take the best player on the board. Don’t think for a second it won’t cost them though. It may be a serious challenge to sign him. There’s been no buzz to say they’ll go any other direction with this pick.

Kiley: Pittsburgh needs to show it’s fans that it is serious about winning, and the former MLB slot-enforcing czar, Frank Coonelly, is now in the front office for the Pirates and says they’ll take the best available player. After last year’s passing on Matt Wieters fiasco, due to a large pricetag shopped by Scott Boras, they won’t make the same mistake twice.

 

#3 - Kansas City Royals

Frankie’s Projection: Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS (FL)

Kiley’s Projection: Buster Posey, C, Florida State

Frankie: This is where the scenarios begin to really diverge and things get very sticky. I have to stick with my original thoughts on this, though. The Royals know how to scout hitters and know a good one when they see one. Hosmer is going to cost them and that could be the only thing to interfere with this perfect match. I just don’t see this not playing out. Hosmer could slide a long way if he doesn’t go here. We reported on Hosmer’s reported price tag in a prior article. It’s great being self-referential.

Kiley: There has been a lot of pro-Eric Hosmer talk and anti-Posey talk at this pick, and with last year’s surprising pick of a polished HS hitter represented by Scott Boras (Mike Moustakas), there’s no telling where KC goes this time around, but Hosmer’s certainly in play. For me, the Royals have stockpiled corner bats in recent years, and, at a pick like this, with a guy as special, high probability, and scorching hot at the most premium of positiosn, like Posey, you can’t let him past, even if insiders will tell you Posey isn’t the guy and he’s raising his bonus expectations.

 

#4 - Baltimore Orioles

Frankie’s Projection: Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego

Kiley’s Projection: Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego

Frankie: I’m not exactly being gutsy on this projection. It really makes too much sense though. The Orioles have been on Matusz all spring and really, a guy of this caliber should not last longer than this. He gets surprisingly overlooked at times. A polished lefty with strikeout stuff and reasonable bonus demands is very hard to pass. The Orioles won’t.

Kiley: It seems like this is the only pick in the draft that everyone has projected the same guy for a few months. Matusz still isn’t a cinch here, as there has been talk of Justin Smoak, Gordon Beckham, and Posey (if he falls), but it appears that talk out of O’s camp is they want a college arm. Some may make a case for Aaron Crow if that’s the criteria, but Matusz has a chance to be a special top of the rotation lefty, and Baltimore has been tied to Matusz for some time; for good reason, it’s the right pick here for them.

 

#5 - San Francisco Giants

Frankie’s Projection: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina

Kiley’s Projection: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina

Frankie: The buzz all spring is that the Giants would like to grab one of the elite hitters in this class. Posey could be gone as well as Alvarez, so this really makes sense. From all indications, they prefer Smoak over Alonso and Beckham. This could change only if someone like Tim Beckham drops into their laps.

Kiley: The Giants have actually come out and said, not even anonymously, in the local papers that they want a polished bat at this pick. Smoak, for me is the best pick for that criteria, and personally, I only have Kyle Skipworth a hair ahead of Smoak on the SaberScouting Top 100, and the Giants need an impact bat, and fast. Combine that with talk that the Giants aren’t on Skipworth, but are all over Smoak, and this looks like an easy one. Which, of course, means I’ll be wrong. There’s some talk of Posey here if he slips, and also Gordon Beckham.

 

#6 - Florida Marlins

Frankie’s Projection: Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA)

Kiley’s Projection: Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS (CA)

Frankie: This is my first really “out there” idea. Tim Beckham dropping to sixth overall hasn’t been considered much and I myself even mentioned him as a possibility with the fifth overall pick. For no real reason, it is possible that he could slip here, but no further. If he is, there is no chance the Marlins don’t take him.

Kiley: Florida is one of those teams that is hard to figure as they consistently go off the map with personnel moves, although usually make the right move. They’d love to get Posey to slip to them here, which I can’t see happening, and the Marlins may wet their pants if Beckham slips, as in Frankie’s scenario. Florida has long been tied to Kyle Skipworth, as he can help solve their ongoing catching woes, and for me, has the highest upside in the draft. The Marlins are also on a quicker moving bat, local slugger Yonder Alonso, but if Skipworth is there and no one crazy slips, his Brian McCann-like package of upside is the pick.

 

#7 - Cincinnati Reds

Frankie’s Projection: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri

Kiley’s Projection: Brett Lawrie, C, Brookswood HS (Canada)

Frankie: There were a lot of ways to go on this one. The Reds usually do their best to take the best player on the board though. Crow is that guy. He had some problems in the middle of his spring season but has bounced back nicely. They could look at Brett Lawrie for this spot also, but that is a real long shot.

Kiley: As Frankie mentioned, there’s a late rumor going around that the spot Lawrie’s helium will park him is right here at #7. That idea seemed laughable about a month ago, but Lawrie wasn’t joking around when he took his impact bat and plus-plus power to spring training camps all over the south (and the Dominican) and hit homer after homer, many off of major league pitchers on rehab. One stretch had 8 jacks in 8 days, one had 5 bombs in a doubleheader, and all of it has been in front of a large group of a curious scouting community. There obviously a good chance Lawrie won’t go here (although he probably doesn’t get past the Twins at 14, and certainly not the Jays at 17) and in that case, the Reds have been on Gordon Beckham and Aaron Crow, who would both be fine choices.

 

#8 - Chicago White Sox

Frankie’s Projection: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia

Kiley’s Projection: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia

Frankie: The White Sox have loved what they’ve seen from Beckham since he was in the Cape Cod League last summer. He’d be a nice fit for their organization and could move up quickly. Typically they have drafted guys with big results even if there have been some doubts about his overall game. Beckham has questions about his defense and swing but has put up massive numbers.

Kiley: Brett Wallace has been rumored to the guy at this spot for as long as I can remember, which is probably a few months (not. enough.sleep.). However, lately the Sox appeared to have cooled and on him starting following Beckham as a premium position guy who could step into Orlando Cabrera’s place quickly after he leaves. I think the Sox lean to the shortstop here, but Wallace is a distinct possibility, and so are the remaining power arms, Aaron Crow and Shooter Hunt, along with an off-the-board rumor of college catcher Jason Castro.

 

#9 - Washington Nationals

Frankie’s Projection: Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS (CA)

Kiley’s Projection: Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS (FL)

Frankie: Skipworth had a huge performance at his recent workout for the Nationals and it’s looking more and more likely that this is a match made in heaven. There have been rumors that Skipworth could slip but given the long running rumor of this connection, it is too much to ignore and the pre-draft workout could just be the icing on the cake.

Kiley: In my scenario, the Nats could really go in any direction. There’s power college arms Aaron Crow and Shooter Hunt along with Boras-repped high school bat Eric Hosmer. And the Nats are just the team who would go for a toolsy high schooler in Aaron Hicks or Gerrit Cole. They’ve also been tied to Zach Collier after his big workout in Washington, and the same goes for Skipworth (who’s gone in my scenario). So, how do I decide who the Nats go with? Highest ceiling. Hosmer has been watched closely since before he could drive and he fits the Nats approach of find the best talent and work out the money later.

 

#10 - Houston Astros

Frankie’s Projection: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane

Kiley’s Projection: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri

Frankie: The Astros are looking far and wide for a big arm to draft and Hunt seems like the perfect match. Not only is he a big, power arm but he could also move fairly quickly up the ladder. Hunt should be on the table for them to grab if they want him or they could go with the likes of someone like Gerrit Cole or Aaron Crow if he falls to them.

Kiley: And, in my scenario, Aaron Crow falls to them. He’s slipped some with reported high bonus demands and stuff that faded down the stretch, but he’s a potential frontline arm, despite some funk in the arm action. The Astros could go bat here with Yonder Alonso, opt for a power college arm alternative in Shooter Hunt, or maybe pop Boras-advised, polarizing prep hurler Gerrit Cole.

 

#11 - Texas Rangers

Frankie’s Projection: Gerrit Cole, RHP, Orange Lutheran HS

Kiley’s Projection: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane

Frankie: If this isn’t an ideal match, then I don’t know what is. The Rangers have never been afraid to take power arms in the prep ranks with makeup concerns and Cole may be the best arm in the draft. They are also, historically, not at all bothered by working with Scott Boras. If he doesn’t go here, he could fall but this really seems like a great landing place for Cole.

Kiley: I would agree that Cole is an easy choice here, but I think Texas opts for a college arm here with all those prep arms coming along slowly. And their GM tells me (okay, tells another reporter) that college arm sounds great to him. Texas drafted Hunt out of high school, still needs pitching, might not want another prep arm, but still wants upside. I think Hunt might be the perfect pick here, rather than Cole.

 

#12 - Oakland Athletics

Frankie’s Projection: Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)

Kiley’s Projection: Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)

Frankie: This is one Im surprised more people don’t talk about. I just dont see Alonso, a first baseman that is not quite the hitter that Smoak is (of course that is debatable to some), going in the top ten picks. And, his place discipline seems like a neat match for Oakland. If he did last this far, I can’t imagine them letting him slide any further. Not to mention, he should be signable for slot dollars.

Kiley: Alonso certainly is a nice fit here, and Daric Barton isn’t really the type to preclude you from drafting another 1B high. And not like Billy Beane would worry about such a thought; he can trade anything! I think this might be a spot for Brett Lawrie if he doesn’t go #7 to Cincinnati, as Oakland loves drafting catchers and advanced power bats. There’s also some talk that this could be a landing spot for Florida prep shortstop Casey Kelly, as the A’s have shown some interest and have broken out of their recent college-only ways, but Alonso and Lawrie are likely higher on their list.

 

#13 - St. Louis Cardinals

Frankie’s Projection: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky

Kiley’s Projection: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky

Frankie: Friedrich has long been linked to Oakland essentially by default but if he does indeed slip by them, St. Louis is probably an even more logical landing spot for the curveball artist. St. Louis is said to be on the hunt for an advanced college arm and Friedrich would fit that bill. I’d be very surprised if Friedrich falls any further than this spot.

Kiley: St. Louis has been relatively conservative drafting under Jeff Luhnow, with mostly college picks and the occasional prep hitter mixed in. Some locals may call for hometown product Tim Melville, but there’s no history with the Cards and prep pitcher to base that prediction on. I have the Redbirds sticking with the college route, grabbing a small school lefty in Friedrich that gets a lot of Barry Zito comps for his average fastball, good change, and knockout curve that’s the best in the draft. This one almost seems too easy to me, look for us to be wrong, maybe Brett Wallace or Zach Collier with Tim Melville as the darkhorse.

 

#14 - Minnesota Twins

Frankie’s Projection: Zach Collier, RF, Chino Hills HS (CA)

Kiley’s Projection: Aaron Hicks, CF, Wilson HS (CA)

Frankie: The Twins are as good as any team at scouting the high school ranks and Collier has emerged in a big way this spring. It seems logical that Minnesota would be right on the case. Minnesota has made some very surprising picks over the years, especially last year in the first round with Ben Revere. This could be a real wildcard selection, someone we may not even be thinking of. Brett Lawrie might be a fit here as well.

Kiley: As Frankie says, Minnesota leans to the high school/tools end of the spectrum, frequently goes off-the-board, and usually does well in the draft. Brett Lawrie is definitely in play here, and I would think is the pick if he’s available. In my scenario he isn’t, and Collier is a distinct possibility, but may be too raw at the plate for Minnesota’s liking. Casey Kelly fits great here if the Twins would go over slot, but that’s unlikely. I wouldn’t be suprised if Brett Wallace, Tim Melville, Aaron Hicks, or Ethan Martin were the pick, either. I’ll go with Aaron Hicks here, and say the Twins chase the upside, and believe they’ve got a faster version of Torii Hunter with an 80 arm that could play on the mound. They may even draft him as a pitcher rather than a center fielder, as Hicks reportedly is more open to signing as a pitcher.

 

#15 - Los Angeles Dodgers

Frankie’s Projection: Ethan Martin, RHP, Stephen’s County HS (GA)

Kiley’s Projection: Tim Melville, RHP, Holt HS (MO)

Frankie: It’s a pretty safe bet to say that the Dodgers will likely go with a prep arm. Martin is drawing more and more attention for his efforts on the hill and would fit neatly into what the Dodgers tend to do. They have a history drafting two way players and they could use Martin in either capacity. Jake Odorizzi and Tim Melville could also fit into this spot.

Kiley: This is yet another spot that could go in a number of directions, and at this point in the draft, that’s a function of a glut of similarly-talented guys. You’ll hear this, I’ll guess, 400 times on the ESPN telecast; TV loves sweeping generalizations, but this one is probably true. Zach Collier is a local kid that again wowed the Dodgers in workouts (he did that for a number of teams), and Gerrit Cole is another local kid, but his funky arm action and Boras representation may scare the Dodgers off. I agree with Frankie that Martin is a natural fit for Logan White, as he loves power prep arms (Withrow, Billingsley, Kershaw, Elbert) and power third base bats (Bell, DeWitt, LaRoche), and two-way athletes (Loney). That being said, White does skew to more projectable frames and cleaner deliveries, isn’t afraid to take a guy 5-10 picks earlier than people expect, looks at the full body of work rather than taking the hot name, and has already taken two first rounders out of the Missouri prep ranks (Elbert, DeWitt). All of that thinking out loud leads me to Melville.

Kiley’s Mock Draft

1. Tampa Bay - Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS

2. Pittsburgh - Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt

3. Kansas City - Buster Posey, C, Florida State

4. Baltimore - Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego

5. San Francisco - Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina

6. Florida -Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS

7. Cincinnati - Brett Lawrie, C, Canada HS

8. Chicago White Sox - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia

9. Washington - Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS

10. Houston - Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri

11. Texas - Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane

12. Oakland - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)

13. St. Louis - Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky

14. Minnesota - Aaron Hicks, CF, California HS

15. Los Angeles - Tim Melville, RHP, Missouri HS

Frankie’s Mock Draft

1. Tampa Bay - Buster Posey, C, Florida State

2. Pittsburgh - Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt

3. Kansas City - Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS

4. Baltimore - Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego

5. San Francisco - Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina

6. Florida - Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS

7. Cincinnati - Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri

8. Chicago White Sox - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia

9. Washington - Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS

10. Houston - Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane

11. Texas - Gerrit Cole, RHP, California HS

12. Oakland - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)

13. St. Louis - Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky

14. Minnesota - Zach Collier, RF, California HS

15. Los Angeles - Ethan Martin, RHP, Georgia HS

[quickman]

Take Crow if he's there! Contreras will be a free agent after next season, and it's not like we have any possible options coming along in the minors (Poreda will be a set-up man, in my opinion).

 

I can't imagine the outrage on here tomorrow if we take Castro.

 

 

it would be just like the sox to take castro knowing they could get away cheaply because of the incest. Hopefully that will not happen. Is still think wallace has the best bat of the first round. He will be a strong pro from the plate.

[DaTank]

Johnathon Mayo's most recent mock:

1. Tampa Bay Rays: Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS, Griffin, Ga.

Officially, it's the same five who have been in the conversation all along: Beckham, FSU catcher Buster Posey, Southern California catcher Kyle Skipworth, Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez and San Diego lefty Brian Matusz. Sticking with Beckham here, at least for the time being.

Last week's projection: Tim Beckham

 

2. Pittsburgh Pirates: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt

No change here, with the Pirates still in line to make some waves by taking Alvarez. They'll still consider Posey and perhaps even Matusz if they feel they need to go with the top college pitcher.

Last week's projection: Alvarez

 

3. Kansas City Royals: Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla.

Hosmer remains the top choice here, but if the Pirates pass on Alvarez, he would be a consideration. If they decide to go with pitching, Matusz is still in the mix.

Last week's projection: Hosmer

 

4. Baltimore Orioles: Aaron Crow, RHP, University of Missouri

It's been up and down lately for the right-hander, who slid partially because of a mini-slump and partially because of some perceived demands for a big-league contract. He had a terrific start in the NCAA regionals and the big-league-deal request has reportedly been taken off the table. The O's will still consider Matusz as well as South Carolina first baseman Justin Smoak.

Last week's projection: Brian Matusz

 

5. San Francisco Giants: Buster Posey, C, Florida State

If the Rays don't take him and the Pirates take Alvarez, this is the next place Posey can end up. The Giants supposedly are leaning toward a bat even if Posey's gone, with Smoak and Skipworth being possibilities. If Matusz were around, they might discuss going in that direction, but they'll be pleased as punch to get the FSU catcher.

Last week's projection: Posey

 

6. Florida Marlins: Brian Matusz, LHP, University of San Diego

With the O's going with Crow, that leaves the Marlins with a choice of Matusz or Skipworth, the two players they seem to have been on the most. There was some late talk of Andrew Cashner here, but with Matusz still on the board, they won't hesitate to take the southpaw.

Last week's projection: Skipworth

 

7. Cincinnati Reds: Yonder Alonso, 1B, University of Miami

The Reds could consider Smoak, but word all along has been that they prefer Alonso. If they want a middle infielder, there's Georgia's Gordon Beckham. High school bats being considered could include Skipworth and Canadian Brett Lawrie. For now, we'll stick with the Miami first baseman.

Last week's projection: Alonso

 

8. Chicago White Sox: Gordon Beckham, SS, University of Georgia

They'll have interest in Alonso if the Reds don't take him and they might have interest in Skipworth if he's around. ASU's Brett Wallace still gets mentioned occasionally here, and Smoak could get some consideration, but G-Beck still makes the most sense in this slot.

Last week's projection: Gordon Beckham

 

9. Washington Nationals: Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS, Riverside, Calif.

It looks like this could be a choice between the polished college hitter in Smoak and the high-upside high school player in Skipworth. Could make for a spirited debate and for now we'll have the Nats come down on the high school backstop side of the argument.

Last week's projection: Smoak

 

10. Houston Astros: Justin Smoak, 1B, University of South Carolina

It still seems like a college arm makes the most sense here, with Tulane's Shooter Hunt still a possibility and perhaps Andrew Cashner figuring into the mix. But with a bat like Smoak's surprisingly still around, it's easy to see the 'Stros not letting him drop any further.

Last week's projection: Crow

 

11. Texas Rangers: Andrew Cashner, RHP, Texas Christian

There have been four names mentioned prominently here: Cashner, Hunt, Aaron Hicks and SoCal high school pitcher Gerrit Cole. Georgia prepster Ethan Martin could still figure into the mix as well. But we'll stick with the guy in the Rangers' backyard for now.

Last week's projection: Cashner

 

12. Oakland A's: Aaron Hicks, OF/RHP, Woodrow Wilson HS, Long Beach, Calif.

What's this? The A's taking a toolsy outfielder with their top pick? The A's don't draft like they used to all the time and they've been high on Hicks for a while. They could still go with college lefty Christian Friedrich, and would love it if Smoak got to them. Wallace is still in the mix and they would consider Ethan Martin as well.

Last week's projection: Christian Friedrich

 

13. St. Louis Cardinals: Ryan Perry, RHP, University of Arizona

There have been countless reports about a Hicks workout in St. Louis that went well, but in this scenario, he's off the board. They could consider Friedrich, Wallace or another SoCal toolsy outfielder in Zach Collier. We're leaving the strong-armed Perry in here for the time being.

Last week's projection: Perry

 

14. Minnesota Twins: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky

Friedrich is probably in the conversation in a whole host of places, but he has to land somewhere. The Twins would love for Hicks to get to them, but that is becoming more and more unlikely. Lawrie has been mentioned, but it's sounding like they may nab a college arm here and perhaps take some higher-ceiling high school guys later on.

Last week's projection: Aaron Hicks

 

15. Los Angeles Dodgers: Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills HS, Calif.

It's hard not to put a high school arm like Martin or Jake Odorizzi with the Dodgers, and they both might be in the mix. So might Lawrie. But if Collier is still there, the Dodgers might find his upside too difficult to pass up. He had a recent workout in Dodger Stadium, for whatever that's worth.

Last week's projection: Collier

 

16. Milwaukee Brewers: Brett Lawrie, C/3B, Brookswood SS, Langley, B.C.

Like many teams, there's a hope here that perhaps one of the names mentioned above will filter down to this spot. If that doesn't happen, the Brewers could be looking at Lawrie or Anthony Hewitt, both of whom reportedly performed extremely well in workouts with the club lately. They'd probably take a long look at Hunt and maybe a closer like Josh Fields sneaks in. For now, we'll go with the Canadian prepster, who's been impressing a lot of late.

Last week's projection: Anthony Hewitt

 

17. Toronto Blue Jays: Brett Wallace, 1B/3B, Arizona State

A guy who can hit like this deserves to go higher, and he just might. If that's the case, the Jays may stay within their borders and take Lawrie, who hails from British Columbia. But with Wallace on the board and Lawrie gone, Wallace's offensive skill set will be too hard to pass up.

Last week's projection: Wallace

 

18. New York Mets: Ike Davis, OF, Arizona State

It's still looking like the Mets will opt for talent that can help them sooner rather than later, at least with some early picks. If Perry makes it down this far, he could be a choice, but we'll stick with ASU's Davis, the son of former big league reliever Ron Davis.

Last week's projection: Davis

 

19. Chicago Cubs: Casey Kelly, SS, Sarasota HS, Fla.

It's been looking likely that the Cubs will go with a high school bat if the right one is here. Collier and Lawrie have been mentioned, but with them off the board, it could leave the Cubs looking hard at Sarasota High School shortstop Casey Kelly. He's also a talented pitcher and a University of Tennessee quarterback recruit, but the Cubs have the resources to get it done if they so choose.

Last week's projection: Brett Lawrie

 

20. Seattle Mariners: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane

All along, the feeling was the Mariners would look for the best college pitcher with a live arm. It could be Perry or Cashner if they were here, but they're not in this projection. If they want to go with a safer college arm, Ole Miss right-hander Lance Lynn could be discussed. Or they could go for a closer with someone like Fields. As of this writing, though, we'll say the Tulane ace's slide will stop here.

Last week's projection: Hunt

 

21. Detroit Tigers: Ethan Martin, RHP, Stephens County HS, Toccoa, Ga.

The Tigers have been willing and able to do just about anything with their top picks and it's automatically assumed that any "signability issue" types could slide to them. Barring that, they would have interest in high school talents like Collier or Lawrie, or strong college arms like Perry or even Rice's Bryan Price. Instead, they'll go with a prep arm with a ton of upside in Martin.

Last week's projection: Casey Kelly

 

22. New York Mets: Jason Castro, C, Stanford

Castro, a left-handed hitter who's proven to most scouts this spring that he can catch, has been mentioned as a possibility all up and down the first round over the past few weeks. With the Mets still looking for college bats and Castro still not off the board, this seemed to be a good match. Miami's Jemile Weeks (speed) or maybe South Carolina's James Darnell (power) could figure in here as well.

Last week's projection: Castro

 

23. San Diego Padres: Daniel Schlereth, LHP, University of Arizona

Scouts have always liked Schlereth's arm and his bulldog mentality, but he kind of fit a setup-man profile. Then he pitched in a series against Stanford with a ton of eyes and came out throwing 97-98 mph. He's been lights-out his past few outings, greatly enhancing his draft status, and is now being looked at as a guy who might even be able to close at the next level. Lance Lynn's name has been mentioned as a possibility as well.

Last week's projection: Schlereth

 

24. Philadelphia Phillies: Anthony Hewitt, SS, Salisbury School, Conn

The Phillies don't shy away from the toolsy high schoolers and Hewitt's got as much upside as anyone in the Draft. He may not be here at this point and if that's the case, the Phils could look at Collier or Martin should one of them be around. Lawrie would get some consideration and a sleeper could be Alabama high school product Destin Hood.

Last week's projection: Martin

 

25. Colorado Rockies: Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Highland HS, Ill.

Odorizzi's name moved steadily up the charts this spring as he continued to throw consistently well to the point where some thought of him as perhaps the best prep arm in the class. He might not be the first off the board, but word is that the Rockies would love to have him still be around at this slot.

Last week's projection: Ordorizzi

 

26. Arizona Diamondbacks: Josh Fields, RHP, University of Georgia

Another strong-armed college reliever (it appears to be a strength in this class), he might go above to a team looking for a short reliever who can move quickly. Fields had a sub-par junior season and went back to school rather than sign with the Braves via the second round last year. He was virtually unhittable in his senior season and though he's a Boras advisee, he should sign and move quickly, a la Matt LaPorta. If Fields is gone, Jemile Weeks is a strong possibility.

Last week's projection: Fields

 

27. Minnesota Twins: Brett DeVall, LHP, Niceville HS, Fla.

They took a college lefty at No. 14 in this edition, so why not a prep southpaw here at No. 27? DeVall's the best lefty in the high school ranks and a pretty advanced pitcher, so he could be seen as rather safe, at least as far as prep arms go. The Twins could also decide to make sure they get a local product, another prep lefty named Brad Hand.

Last week's projection: DeVall

 

28. New York Yankees: Brett Hunter, RHP, Pepperdine University

I'm not saying it's going to happen, but here's stating that it could. The Yankees don't shy away from risky injury picks (like Andrew Brackman a year ago). And while it might seem unlikely they'd go that route two years in a row, Hunter did return lately and was up to 94-95 mph during a regional start. If the Yankees are fairly convinced he's healthy, they could take a shot. Last week's pick, Cole, still could fit, and the Yankees probably wouldn't mind if someone like DeVall was still around.

Last week's projection: Cole

 

29. Cleveland Indians: Jemile Weeks, 2B, University of Miami

The indication is the Indians would like a college bat in this spot and Weeks is someone they hope is still here. There's a chance that he could go higher, leaving the Indians to figure out which of the advanced hitters fit best. For now, they don't have to worry about that.

Last week's projection: Weeks

 

30. Boston Red Sox: Lance Lynn, RHP, University of Mississippi

The Red Sox are willing to go in any direction at any point in the Draft, so this pick is anyone's guess. There'd been a lot of talk about South Carolina's Reese Havens, but Lynn's name has recently cropped up as a late-first-round candidate. He might go before this spot, but for now, he stays here.

Last week's projection: Lynn

 

What I don't understand in his mock is if he has Skipworth AND Smoak being chosen after us, why wouldn't we take one of them instead of G-Beck?

 

[DBAHO]

The Beckham pick is based on need, and really there isn't a whole lot of difference b/w the likes of Beckham, Smoak and Skipworth.

 

So that's the main logical argument I can think of, but I would be annoyed if we didn't take either Skipworth or Smoak if they were still on the board.

 

Maybe the Sox think Beckham can rise quickly through their system and be ready to contribute in 2010 at some point?

[DaTank]

The Beckham pick is based on need, and really there isn't a whole lot of difference b/w the likes of Beckham, Smoak and Skipworth.

 

So that's the main logical argument I can think of, but I would be annoyed if we didn't take either Skipworth or Smoak if they were still on the board.

 

Maybe the Sox think Beckham can rise quickly through their system and be ready to contribute in 2010 at some point?

 

Wouldn't a Smoak pick be based on need as well? If Thome retires after this year or when his contract runs out after next year, and Crede leaves, who would we have to fill the 1B/DH type need? We already have Alexei as a possibility at SS when O-Cab leaves, Getz, Richar, and Ozuna as other MI options. IMO, Beckham will never do much. I also think the #8 pick is starting to become a curse. Check the #8 picks since 2000, no team changing players in there.

 

[Chisoxfn]

Smoak is arguably the best hitter in the draft.

Skipworth is the best prep catching prospect to come out since Joe Mauer

Beckham is a legit top 10 talent, but isn't in the same category as the above two guys.

 

If the Sox pick Beckham with Smoak/Skipworth on the board I'll be very dissapointed (and this is coming from someone who likes Beckham).

[29andPoplar]

Smoak is arguably the best hitter in the draft.

Skipworth is the best prep catching prospect to come out since Joe Mauer

Beckham is a legit top 10 talent, but isn't in the same category as the above two guys.

 

If the Sox pick Beckham with Smoak/Skipworth on the board I'll be very dissapointed (and this is coming from someone who likes Beckham).

Jason, I just don't think they'll go with a high school guy. Call it a hunch. Now if Smoak is on the board they've got to think really hard about passing him up. Heir apparent for Konerko when his deal expires after 2010. Then again, the same could be said for Brett Wallace.

 

Aren't the Giants all over Smoak though?

[DBAHO]

Jason, I just don't think they'll go with a high school guy. Call it a hunch. Now if Smoak is on the board they've got to think really hard about passing him up. Heir apparent for Konerko when his deal expires after 2010. Then again, the same could be said for Brett Wallace.

 

Aren't the Giants all over Smoak though?

I can only see the Giants passing up on Smoak for either Posey or Skipworth.

 

Pretty sure they will take Smoak though.

[fathom]

Jason, I just don't think they'll go with a high school guy. Call it a hunch. Now if Smoak is on the board they've got to think really hard about passing him up. Heir apparent for Konerko when his deal expires after 2010. Then again, the same could be said for Brett Wallace.

 

Aren't the Giants all over Smoak though?

 

Yes, Smoak won't be there when we pick. I think the possible guys are Skippy, Wallace, G. Beckham, Crow, and Castro. I'd be happy with the first 4.

[29andPoplar]

I think the possible guys are Skippy, Wallace, G. Beckham, Crow, and Castro. I'd be happy with the first 4.

 

Agree completely based on the (small amount) of research I've done. I think Castro would be an overdraft there and there are doubts about his hitting.

[Chisoxfn]

Jason, I just don't think they'll go with a high school guy. Call it a hunch. Now if Smoak is on the board they've got to think really hard about passing him up. Heir apparent for Konerko when his deal expires after 2010. Then again, the same could be said for Brett Wallace.

 

Aren't the Giants all over Smoak though?

The Giants are very interested in Smoak, but they might also consider Pedro Alvarez if he falls (in fact I'd be shocked if they didn't). Brett Wallace doesn't at all compare to Smoak. I've seen both play a few times and the reality is that Smoak is as good (or at least close to as good) of a pure hitter as Wallace (don't get me wrong, both show the ability to be tremendous "pure" hitters), except Smoak possesses far more power potential and is better defensively. Neither Skipworth or Smoak appear to be tough signs either.

 

I understand that the Sox may not take Skipworth and if he's on the board it won't be the first time I've flipped out at the way the Sox do business. I felt the same way when the Sox took Lucy (over Suzuki who I absolutely loved and saw play numerous times at Fullerton), McCulloch, and Whisler. Those were probably the three most disappointing picks since I've been following). The other thing that always gets my panties in a bundle is the Sox unwillingness to take talented guys that fall and offer over slot money. Maybe not going after Alvarez (I understand 9.5M is a strong commitment to a player that young, especially if someone like Smoak who grades similarly is on the board), but I see no reason why not to take a flyer on a top 3 round talent whose slide down because teams know he'll cost 2 or 3 round money (or he may have a strong lean to a school).

 

In there defense, they were aggressive with Danks, but its well known Reinsdorf refuses to go above slot money (and I have a problem with that approach because I think its fiscally smart to go above smart money because in the long term, with proper scouting, it gives you more good prospects.

[scenario]

The Giants are very interested in Smoak, but they might also consider Pedro Alvarez if he falls (in fact I'd be shocked if they didn't).

 

I read an article that said Alvarez is the Pirates' 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choice, and ownership has already expressed a willingness to cough up the money for him. So the odds of him falling to the Giants seems slim.

Edited June 4, 2008 by scenario

[bighurt4life]

but its well known Reinsdorf refuses to go above slot money (and I have a problem with that approach because I think its fiscally smart to go above smart money because in the long term, with proper scouting, it gives you more good prospects.

 

Not necessarily true. We went well over slot with Joe Borchard (I think we also did with Nevin Griffith) the team's philosophy on this issue is that they'll pay more if the player is really worth it but if they see two players who grade out similarly but one want slot money and the other wants 2-3 million more than slot then they'll take the player who's a little cheaper and more worth the money

[Balta1701]

Not necessarily true. We went well over slot with Joe Borchard (I think we also did with Nevin Griffith) the team's philosophy on this issue is that they'll pay more if the player is really worth it but if they see two players who grade out similarly but one want slot money and the other wants 2-3 million more than slot then they'll take the player who's a little cheaper and more worth the money

Did the slotting system even exist as it stands now when we drafted Borchard?

[Chisoxfn]

IIRC, the slotting system was not in existence for the Borchard pick. That said, I didn't follow the draft at that time so I can't comment on that fully. However, after that failed pick the Sox have been afraid of going out and putting out big bucks on a prospect. They can put it down and rationalize it anyway they want, but they have went with the easy sign since that point in time. In there defense, most of the time they pick (which is usually in the teens & twenties) has been at a point where typically guys grade out relatively similarly.

[DaTank]

Looks like the Reds won't be taking Crow. According to the Cincinnati Enquirer, they've narrowed it down to: Matusz, Posey, G-Beck, and Alonso.

 

http://beta.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/s....cincinnati.com

[fathom]

Looks like the Reds won't be taking Crow. According to the Cincinnati Enquirer, they've narrowed it down to: Matusz, Posey, G-Beck, and Alonso.

 

http://beta.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/s....cincinnati.com

 

I can't see Reds taking Posey, as they drafted a catcher last year. If I was them, I'd take a pitcher.

[Heads22]

My draft philosophy is, for the love of God, take the best player available instead of based on need.

[BearSox]

Looks like the Reds won't be taking Crow. According to the Cincinnati Enquirer, they've narrowed it down to: Matusz, Posey, G-Beck, and Alonso.

 

http://beta.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/s....cincinnati.com

Smoak will likely be gone at either 3, 4, or 5, Matusz at 4 or 7, and then that leaves Crow there at 8! It would be nice to get an arm like his in the system. Contreras/Broadway's replacement in the short run, and if everything goes as planned, Vazquez's replacement in the long run. Plus, even if he does fail as a starter, he would still have potential as a set up man. The same can't really be said for Matusz.

 

Also, man, would it be nice to see Gordon Beckham go at no. 7. I like Beckham and all, but I don't think he's worth a top 10 selection and his bat/power is more of a product of the aluminum and college baseball in general. He's got a hitch in his swing, and I have trouble seeing his bat transition as well as Wallace's or Smoak's. I think he's a fine prospect and all, but there are other players who will be there at 8 who'd I'd rather see drafted. I like Alonso also, but he is as slow as they come, and there is signability concerns. (however, sadly there are some w/ Crow as well).

 

For me, the prospects are in three tiers, based on who I think the org. likes, who I like, and who I think has a shot at being there (I am assuming that all of TBeckham, Alvarez, Posey and Matusz will be gone, as they are the most certain locks for the top 7, IMO):

 

1st Tier:

1.) Aaron Crow

2.) Justin Smoak

3.) Kyle Skipworth

 

2nd Tier:

4.) Brett Wallace

5.) Gordon Beckham

6.) Yonder Alonso

 

3rd Tier:

7.) Shooter Hunt

8.) Andrew Cashner

9.) Tim Melville

WTF? Tier:

-Jason Castro

-Christian Friedrich

-Ike Davis

 

However, since only 7 teams pick ahead of us, we don't have to drop down below the 2nd tier.

 

[DaTank]

It appears fairly certain the Reds will be taking University of Georgia shortstop with the No. 7 overall pick. They've long been associated with a variety of college players, mostly bats (Yonder Alonso) and also RHP Aaron Crow, but it's looking like the middle-infielder who's had a monster season for the super-regional bound Bulldogs (.397, 24 HR, 65 RBI, 1.286 OPS, 17 SB) will be joining the Reds organization tomorrow.

 

per Johnathon Mayo

 

http://draft.mlblogs.com/archives/2008/06/latest_buzz.html

[BearSox]

f*** YEAH! This means the odds of Crow being there at 8 increased a ton!