lostfan Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 (edited) QUOTE (RockRaines @ May 30, 2008 -> 12:37 AM) The question wasnt whether our team is winning, its what to do with Swish, and if AJP is playing better in the 2 hole or further down the order. The biggest change has been Q in the 3 hole as his RBI count is above how many games they've played. Its an illusion that AJ is better in the 2 hole, he is in fact been a better hitter further down the order. Breaking down the stats like that is misleading. AJ had a nice streak where he was the best hitter in baseball while he was hitting further down in the order and then he predictably cooled off. He could just as easily have another hot streak in the 2 hole, much like he could've just as easily never had the hot streak. He's not a dramatically different hitter in either spot. Swisher, on the other hand, isn't going to suddenly become a .800-.900 OPS player again just because he gets put in the 2 hole. If he is getting on base at that high .300s clip again I think it's pretty much common thinking that he belongs at the top of the order, but that's not happening. Edited May 30, 2008 by lostfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 (edited) QUOTE (rangercal @ May 30, 2008 -> 05:25 AM) The only stat that matters to me is W-L and the Sox are winning with AJ at # 2. Does it really have that much to do with him at #2, or more with Q at 3? Q since the switch: .327 .409 .636 SLG 19 RBI in 15 games Previous #3 hitter: .209 .350 .769 OPS 22 RBI in 37 games How bout OC's move: batting 2nd: .220 .298 .569 OPS 3 2B 17 runs in 30 games batting 1st: .276 .311 .709 OPS 6 2B 17 runs in 23 games AJP batting 2nd: .231 .286 .613 OPS 4 RBI 3 2B 6 runs 13 games So we can see that although AJ's stats have gone down with the move, overall our offense has been a bit more productive and our #3 hitter has basically blown the doors off the previous hitter. But it would be foolish to think that AJP was the reason as OC was actually close to the same hitter in that spot. Edited May 30, 2008 by RockRaines Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 QUOTE (RockRaines @ May 30, 2008 -> 07:38 AM) Does it really have that much to do with him at #2, or more with Q at 3? Q since the switch: .327 .409 .636 SLG 19 RBI in 15 games Previous #3 hitter: .209 .350 .769 OPS 22 RBI in 37 games How bout OC's move: batting 2nd: .220 .298 .569 OPS 3 2B 17 runs in 30 games batting 1st: .276 .311 .709 OPS 6 2B 17 runs in 23 games AJP batting 2nd: .231 .286 .613 OPS 4 RBI 3 2B 6 runs 13 games So we can see that although AJ's stats have gone down with the move, overall our offense has been a bit more productive and our #3 hitter has basically blown the doors off the previous hitter. But it would be foolish to think that AJP was the reason as OC was actually close to the same hitter in that spot. No one said AJ was THE reason for the resurgence, but I still feel his being in the #2 really makes him a better hitter. He has always been a bigger threat when he is looking at using all of the fields instead of trying to yank the ball into the bullpen sports bar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 (edited) QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 30, 2008 -> 06:46 AM) No one said AJ was THE reason for the resurgence, but I still feel his being in the #2 really makes him a better hitter. He has always been a bigger threat when he is looking at using all of the fields instead of trying to yank the ball into the bullpen sports bar. It has certainly helped the team, but its hard to ignore the statistics that suggest he is actually a more complete and better hitter further down the order. I think the winning has given you Rosey colored glasses when looking at AJP since the move. I am guilty of it too, and thought the same way until I looked at his stats after seeing how much his numbers had fell during last nights game. Edited May 30, 2008 by RockRaines Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 QUOTE (RockRaines @ May 30, 2008 -> 06:50 AM) It has certainly helped the team, but its hard to ignore the statistics that suggest he is actually a more complete and better hitter further down the order. I think the winning has given you Rosey colored glasses when looking at AJP since the move. I am guilty of it too, and thought the same way until I looked at his stats after seeing how much his numbers had fell during last nights game. His stats in the 6 hole being better than the 2 hole is more about his seasonal streaks than about his performance in those slots. He's been cold lately, whereas he started off hot. If you want the better indicators of how he'll do over the course of the season, look at HOW he's hitting - he's still the "good" AJ hitting in the 2-hole, especially with O-Cab now getting on base more often. He goes the other way, and rarely strikes out. When he does that, his average will stay high, even in these little slumps. If you move him down the order, he may change that style to a more power swing, and that doesn't suit AJ as well performance-wise. I still think AJ in the 2-hole is pretty ideal. Better him than Swisher, at least for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 QUOTE (RockRaines @ May 30, 2008 -> 06:50 AM) It has certainly helped the team, but its hard to ignore the statistics that suggest he is actually a more complete and better hitter further down the order. I think the winning has given you Rosey colored glasses when looking at AJP since the move. I am guilty of it too, and thought the same way until I looked at his stats after seeing how much his numbers had fell during last nights game. Also BTW, the Sox are now 12-3 with the recent lineup changes (OC, AJ, CQ, JD, JT, PK, JC, NS, AR or similar). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 QUOTE (RockRaines @ May 29, 2008 -> 09:37 PM) The question wasnt whether our team is winning, its what to do with Swish, and if AJP is playing better in the 2 hole or further down the order. The biggest change has been Q in the 3 hole as his RBI count is above how many games they've played. Its an illusion that AJ is better in the 2 hole, he is in fact been a better hitter further down the order. Lets wait till Swish starts hitting for a week or two in a row and at that point I think the discussion is warranted. AJP had a bit of a slump in the 2 spot, but aside from that he's been rock solid. I think the biggest reasons for his successes this season have been an improved approach (back to the old AJ of using all fields) and a much much better physic (he's in great shape after being rather portly the last year or two). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve9347 Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 QUOTE (RockRaines @ May 30, 2008 -> 07:38 AM) Does it really have that much to do with him at #2, or more with Q at 3? Q since the switch: .327 .409 .636 SLG 19 RBI in 15 games Previous #3 hitter: .209 .350 .769 OPS 22 RBI in 37 games How bout OC's move: batting 2nd: .220 .298 .569 OPS 3 2B 17 runs in 30 games batting 1st: .276 .311 .709 OPS 6 2B 17 runs in 23 games AJP batting 2nd: .231 .286 .613 OPS 4 RBI 3 2B 6 runs 13 games So we can see that although AJ's stats have gone down with the move, overall our offense has been a bit more productive and our #3 hitter has basically blown the doors off the previous hitter. But it would be foolish to think that AJP was the reason as OC was actually close to the same hitter in that spot. How about this? If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Swisher is still batting around .200 so you think putting him in the 2 hole is a good idea? Ridiculous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rowand44 Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 (edited) QUOTE (Steve9347 @ May 30, 2008 -> 11:22 AM) How about this? If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Swisher is still batting around .200 so you think putting him in the 2 hole is a good idea? Ridiculous. And his obp is .332 compared to AJ's .335. IMO Swisher is eventually going to have to be moved back up in the order cause he will be getting on base at a better pace than AJ any day now and at the moment our one concern should be getting as many people on base for CQ as possible. But as of now, I'm definitely fine with the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" line of thinking, eventually moving Swisher back to the top of the order will be the best thing for this line up though imo. Edited May 30, 2008 by Rowand44 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 I'm fine with how things stand ATM. If Swisher starts to get hot, then you can look at moving him back up, but if AJ is still doing well in the #2 spot, then you don't have to move him from there either. But the #'s show that AJ hasn't been doing that well in the #2 spot, so I guess we could see a change there at some point, but then again, if the team keeps winning, there's no real reason to change things up there for the sake of it. After this season, if OC leaves, we'll need a new leadoff hitter, which Swisher could be given the opportunity of claiming again, but a player such as Rafael Furcal would really fit a big need there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Princess Dye Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 lets say we keep things as they are, and we keep winning at a decent clip. come very close to winning the division, lose to Minn by one game what if right now we could maximize things by getting Swisher up in the order where he belongs? keeping things the way they are can be a negative, too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
29andPoplar Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 I'm not big on these batting order discussions but I will say this ... all of it is due to not having a true leadoff hitter ... a guy who can get on base at a .370+ clip and can disrupt the rhythm of the pitcher once he's on. They are not easy to find, but not trying to rain on the parade while the team is playing well, but it is Kenny Williams' fault for not finding and acquiring that guy. We were told all along what a good #2 hitter Cabrera is and that he is mediocre in the leadoff spot. Right now I believe it's not so much a case of where Cabrera is hitting, it is more due to the likehood he'd start hitting in general. He's warming up now. This guy is not a .220 hitter. Quentin at the #3 spot is a no brainer, seeing as he's been the team's best hitter and that's where your best hitter belongs. Swisher is down in the order now because Guillen is trying to take the pressure off him. I'm not sure where he hit in Oakland but I would guess it was in more of a traditional RBI spot. Until he starts warming up, and there have been a few signs he is (better at bats), to me it's best to leave him low in the order. But very frankly everything starts at the top. The team has no true leadoff hitter, it's been more of a case of who they can shoehorn into the #1 spot. I would bet if one were to ask Kenny Williams about the leadoff spot, he would agree and then say "where is such a player found, is such a player available, and where would he play?". But if Tailgunner Joe Cowley is to be believed, it is pretty obvious Williams' first priority is finding a leadoff guy who can play 2B. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankensteiner Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 QUOTE (DBAH0 @ May 30, 2008 -> 11:00 AM) I'm fine with how things stand ATM. If Swisher starts to get hot, then you can look at moving him back up, but if AJ is still doing well in the #2 spot, then you don't have to move him from there either. But the #'s show that AJ hasn't been doing that well in the #2 spot, so I guess we could see a change there at some point, but then again, if the team keeps winning, there's no real reason to change things up there for the sake of it. After this season, if OC leaves, we'll need a new leadoff hitter, which Swisher could be given the opportunity of claiming again, but a player such as Rafael Furcal would really fit a big need there. I wouldn't touch Furcal. Guy has a lot of tread on his tires which is scary for a speed guy. Plus he'll cost a fortune and he's not really worth it unless he's playing like he has this season. Guy was a pretty big bust last year (.688 OPS). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 QUOTE (Princess Dye @ May 30, 2008 -> 12:04 PM) lets say we keep things as they are, and we keep winning at a decent clip. come very close to winning the division, lose to Minn by one game what if right now we could maximize things by getting Swisher up in the order where he belongs? keeping things the way they are can be a negative, too. By what measure do you conclude that having Swisher in the 2 slot is better than AJ? Because right now, even with AJ's slump, his OBP is slightly higher, his AVG is far higher, and AJ is striking out half as often (in fact, AJ has one of the lowest K rates in the lague right now). Those are hallmarks of a solid #2 hitter, whereas Swisher has a profile that for now is much better suited to the heart of the order. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ May 30, 2008 -> 10:14 AM) By what measure do you conclude that having Swisher in the 2 slot is better than AJ? Because right now, even with AJ's slump, his OBP is slightly higher, his AVG is far higher, and AJ is striking out half as often (in fact, AJ has one of the lowest K rates in the lague right now). Those are hallmarks of a solid #2 hitter, whereas Swisher has a profile that for now is much better suited to the heart of the order. AJ has also hit at below .200 for the last week. One thing you sort of do want out of your top 2 guys is a lack of streakiness. Because if they're hot and cold, then you are hot and cold in terms of having runners on base for superQ to drive in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eickevinmorris Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 I'm sure Swisher would also benefit from having protection behind him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 30, 2008 -> 12:25 PM) AJ has also hit at below .200 for the last week. One thing you sort of do want out of your top 2 guys is a lack of streakiness. Because if they're hot and cold, then you are hot and cold in terms of having runners on base for superQ to drive in. There is no such thing as a non-streak hitter, or at least they are rare. Some certainly have more pronounced ones than others. I think its a terrible idea to move someone around based on one week of play, for a number of reasons. Now, if AJ hits .200 for another couple weeks, and Swisher or someone else looks ready to step up, then by all means make the move. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwolf68 Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 QUOTE (Frankensteiner @ May 30, 2008 -> 12:14 PM) I wouldn't touch Furcal. Guy has a lot of tread on his tires which is scary for a speed guy. Plus he'll cost a fortune and he's not really worth it unless he's playing like he has this season. Guy was a pretty big bust last year (.688 OPS). Totally agree, but Kenny won't be afraid of him. Cabrera is a temporary solution for this year. I still would like to pry Hu from the Dodgers or see if Arias in Texas has rebounded any? We have ZILCH in our minors at SS. As far as Swisher...career .246 hitters typically dont spend time in the top of the order...he's a solid 7th hitter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 QUOTE (kwolf68 @ May 30, 2008 -> 07:38 PM) Totally agree, but Kenny won't be afraid of him. Cabrera is a temporary solution for this year. I still would like to pry Hu from the Dodgers or see if Arias in Texas has rebounded any? We have ZILCH in our minors at SS. As far as Swisher...career .246 hitters typically dont spend time in the top of the order...he's a solid 7th hitter. Hu looked AWFUL when I saw him in the Cubs series. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 As bad as Swisher's been, his OBP this season is still 13 points higher than Orlando Cabrera's career OBP. Swisher, unless he starts hitting some home runs, should bat 8th 9th or 1st. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxFan562004 Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 30, 2008 -> 01:52 PM) As bad as Swisher's been, his OBP this season is still 13 points higher than Orlando Cabrera's career OBP. Swisher, unless he starts hitting some home runs, should bat 8th 9th or 1st. Yeah, that's why I don't mind seeing him near the top, and as of earlier this week he was leading the league in pitches per AB, which can be useful Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Princess Dye Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 argh. what is the bigger problem: having no true #1 hitter or having no skilled #2 hitter. i mean AJ has done well, but he doesnt do the specific things you want from yr #2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 QUOTE (Princess Dye @ May 30, 2008 -> 03:06 PM) argh. what is the bigger problem: having no true #1 hitter or having no skilled #2 hitter. i mean AJ has done well, but he doesnt do the specific things you want from yr #2 What games are you watching? He does precisely the things you want from your #2 - high contact, low strikeouts, hits to all fields, high (or decent) average, decent OBP. What else could you possibly want from a #2 hitter? The only realistic criticism I see of AJ at #2 is a lack of speed, but then most of the lineup fits that category. His OBP could be a bit higher, but he's still above most of the lineup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ May 30, 2008 -> 03:09 PM) What games are you watching? He does precisely the things you want from your #2 - high contact, low strikeouts, hits to all fields, high (or decent) average, decent OBP. What else could you possibly want from a #2 hitter? The only realistic criticism I see of AJ at #2 is a lack of speed, but then most of the lineup fits that category. His OBP could be a bit higher, but he's still above most of the lineup. Actually as a #2 hitter he hasnt really done any of that. As a #6 hitter he has, but in the #2 hole, not so much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted May 30, 2008 Share Posted May 30, 2008 QUOTE (Steve9347 @ May 30, 2008 -> 10:22 AM) How about this? If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Swisher is still batting around .200 so you think putting him in the 2 hole is a good idea? Ridiculous. Yes. And them winning doesnt have a whole lot to do with AJP hitting 2nd, it has ALOT to do with Q hitting 3rd and 90 percent of it is starting pitching and bullepn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.