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Puerto Rico Primary Thread


NorthSideSox72

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The Puerto Rico primary is this Sunday. Its the 3rd to last race, with only MT and SD to follow.

 

The one poll out for PR was done over a long period (May 8-20), there have been primaries since then, and both candidates have been to the island to campaign in the interim, so it may not be very reflective of reality. That Univision poll showed Clinton with a 51-38 lead.

 

This is seen as the last chance for Clinton to dent Obama's lead in delegates and popular vote, since MT and SD (which are on Tuesday, 6/3) are widely seen as strong for Obama. There is no way mathematically for her to actually catch Obama in delegates of course, and the popular vote is only a remote possibility IF she gets her way big time on FL and MI. But this is looking like the last state she can declare a victory of any kind in.

 

Let the commentary begin.

 

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 29, 2008 -> 04:38 PM)
I'm just asking again...how the Hell does Puerto Rico get this many delegates?

I also find it odd that they have more say in the primaries than many states do.

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QUOTE (BigSqwert @ May 29, 2008 -> 05:53 PM)
I also find it odd that they have more say in the primaries than many states do.

Well, in any other year, they wouldn't have gotten any say. It's just an anomaly of this year's race.

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QUOTE (Mplssoxfan @ May 29, 2008 -> 04:26 PM)
Well, in any other year, they wouldn't have gotten any say. It's just an anomaly of this year's race.

Even still, they have more delegates than quite a few of the states, even the late ones.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 30, 2008 -> 05:37 AM)
Are expatriots counted like Mexico does?

For U.S. citizens, there was a "Democrats Abroad" primary a couple months ago. For Puerto Ricans who have moved to the U.S., don't they have some level of citizenship anyway, so doesn't that depend on where they're registered?

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http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/200...01/1093667.aspx

Election officials expect to see a low vote count -- perhaps just 400,000 out of nearly 3 million registered voters -- as the polls are about to close here. Such a number would be far lower than turnout usually is for local elections.

 

That wont help her popular vote argument. Even IF she gets 70% of the 400,000 in PR, she wont pass Obama in the popular vote minur MI. I have it at about Obama +19,435 when PR is fully counted. MT or SD wont give Obama much of a boost since they have such small populations.

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PR doesn't get a vote in November, so why should we care what they do today.

 

Anyone care what the Obama/Clinton results are from Italy or France... they are as important as the ones in PR.

 

the problem with Clinton's argument about popular vote, you need to subtract PR and Guam and US VI as they don't count in November. If her argument is that she wins the states that matter in November, you need to remove those that aren't actually states.

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QUOTE (Heads22 @ Jun 1, 2008 -> 02:51 PM)
I live in one of those caucus states, so I suppose I don't really count as an American.

Not to hillary. And technically a caucus vote really only counts as 1/4 or 1/20 of a popular vote. 4-20 people might be "linked" to a state delegate which is what they use to count the "popular vote" in caucus states..

Edited by Athomeboy_2000
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QUOTE (whitesoxfan101 @ Jun 1, 2008 -> 03:37 PM)
The caucus system has to go. I don't think it's the only reason that Obama is going to win at all like some people do, but the system is pretty damn stupid.

While I love that it helped Obama win the nomination, caucuses are NOT democratic and do not TRUELY represent the will of the people. The need to go.

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Why Clinton won PR by so much: Name Recognition

 

Fully one-third, or 34 percent, of likely voters said they hadn't heard enough about Obama to express an opinion about him. Only 16 percent said that about Clinton, the former first lady and current U.S. senator from New York, a state with many Puerto Ricans.

 

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QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Jun 1, 2008 -> 04:40 PM)
While I love that it helped Obama win the nomination, caucuses are NOT democratic and do not TRUELY represent the will of the people. The need to go.

 

I think the Democrats ought to get rid of primaries and instead, do caucuses. The most democratic? No. The best way to build a party? Absolutely.

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So, it appears that Clinton won by a 68-32 split (by %), netting 21 delegates (38-17), and gaining about 141,000 in the popular vote category.

 

We now have MT and SD on Tuesday, and their combined 31 delegates.

 

We should also know for sure, by then, the MI and FL decisions. Or are those 100% now anyway?

 

So basically, we should have a really solid picture of things by Wednesday morning. And I'd have to guess that the picture will be something like, Obama is just a dozen or two Supers away from victory. At that point, he'll find that many to come out of the woodwork, and it will be over.

 

Question, though - even if that happens and Obama actually has the full majority, what if Clinton elects not to concede, and decides to go to Denver in a futile attempt to talk some supers out of voting for Obama? I mean, what's to stop her from doing that, other than looking like even more of a buffoon than she already does?

 

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QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Jun 1, 2008 -> 04:43 PM)
Fully one-third, or 34 percent, of likely voters said they hadn't heard enough about Obama to express an opinion about him. Only 16 percent said that about Clinton, the former first lady and current U.S. senator from New York, a state with many Puerto Ricans.

If you don't care, why are you voting.

 

I hate it when uneducated folks decide they should be voting.

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jun 2, 2008 -> 08:57 AM)
Question, though - even if that happens and Obama actually has the full majority, what if Clinton elects not to concede, and decides to go to Denver in a futile attempt to talk some supers out of voting for Obama? I mean, what's to stop her from doing that, other than looking like even more of a buffoon than she already does?

Given her track record, that's exactly what she's going to do.

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