Chisoxfn Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 TCSN: White Sox Draft Preview By Andrew Dunn Chisport.com The White Sox enter tomorrow’s MLB draft holding the No. 8 selection, their first top 10 pick since 1990, when they selected RHP Alex Fernandez. With a farm system devoid on top-tier talent, this draft has become extremely crucial for Kenny Williams and his staff to help rebuild it. Many fans are clamoring that the Sox try to draft an impact bat like Justin Smoak, while others would rather head down the “best player available” approach. Let’s take a look at the prospects that could be there for the Sox with the eighth pick. HITTERS Gordon Beckham (SS – Georgia. 6’0, 185, Bats R, Throws R, Age 21) With Tim Beckham likely headed to the Rays at No. 1, Gordon Beckham is the consensus next best middle infielder left in the draft. Beckham has had an outstanding season at Georgia, with an OPS approaching the 1.400 mark. Beckham has also been a threat on the bases (stealing 16 bases on 17 attempts) and has showed good plate discipline throughout the season. He would give the Sox an impact middle infielder in their system, something they haven’t had in a long time. There are major questions on whether Beckham has the ability to play shortstop in the majors. Scouts also have some issues with his hitting mechanics, but these have not been a major hindrance to his production so far. Beckham is comparable to a Khalil Greene / Michael Young offensively; however, his value as a prospect will depend heavily on whether he can stay at short. At this stage, he would appear to be in the Sox’s top 2 or 3 targets. Justin Smoak (1B – South Carolina. 6’4, 215, Bats S, Throws L, Age 21) Touted as an excellent prospect since high school, Smoak is a dangerous switch-hitting first baseman who has shown excellent power and plate discipline from both sides of the plate, posting an OPS over .1300 this season. Many scouts and experts believe he could have the most potent bat out of any prospect coming out of this draft. Defensively, Smoak has good glove at first, so he should have no problem staying there for the majority of his career. He has been compared offensively along the lines of Lance Berkman, and with his past production throughout high school and college, he is one of the safer power hitting prospects in the draft. The Giants are rumored to be very high on him with the No. 5 pick however, so he may not be on the board when the Sox are on the clock. Brett Wallace (1B/3B – Arizona State. 6’2, 235, Bats L, Throws R, Age 21) Wallace is big-bodied hitting prospect slated to go in the top dozen or so picks. This season, Wallace has once again shown excellent offensive production, flashing a pure bat with elite contact skills and plate discipline. Despite weighing 235 pounds, Wallace doesn’t have the terrible body or athleticism that people expect of him, and his bat makes him one of the better corner infield prospects in the draft, although it is unlikely that he will play third in the bigs. There are questions from some scouts about how much power Wallace will have at major league level, although he is quite similar to a Kevin Youklis type of hitter, who could have fantastic OBP skills in the majors. With the Sox brass targeting hitters who have a knack for getting on base, Wallace could definitely end up being the Sox’s choice at No. 8, but some feel that could be a slight overdraft. Buster Posey (C – Florida State. 6’1, 205, Bats R, Throws R, Age 21) Posey is one of the safest players in the draft, and would fill a definite hole in the Sox’s system, which currently only has Donny Lucy as a real prospect of note at the catcher position. At the start of the season, Posey was only considered to be a borderline first-round selection, but a season with an OPS around the 1.400 mark has catapulted himself up to top echelon of the draft. Buster has always shown good defensive skills behind the plate, and catchers with his offensive production have been taken early in drafts before, as it is a premium position (e.g Jeff Clement for the Seattle Mariners). With the other top catching prospect in the draft (HS C Kyle Skipworth) believed to have a guarantee from the Florida Marlins. Posey could be one prospect who could maybe slide down the board, if he is not taken in the top 4. If he is available, the Sox should definitely consider Posey as their guy. PITCHERS Aaron Crow (RHS – Missouri. 6’2, 205, Bats R, Throws R, Age 21) Crow has been a dominant starter for the majority of the season at Missouri, impressing scouts with his overall numbers and velocity. He had a 10-0 record with a 3.08 ERA and a 92/24 K/BB ratio. Crow has a mid 90’s fastball in his arsenal with good command, and a slider / changeup combo. His overall numbers are very impressive considering he pitches in the Big 12, which is one of the better leagues in college baseball. Although he tailed off a little towards the end of the season, Crow is still considered to be a probable top five selection. There are some lingering questions about his arm action and delivery, but not many pitchers have the ability to dominate hitters like him. There is a chance he could slide down to No. 8, but the Cincinnati Reds are believed to be quite high on him at No. 7, if he does make his way down to that spot. Brian Matusz (LHS – San Diego. 6’4, 200, Bats L, Throws L, Age 21) Matusz is the other “top” pitching prospect in the draft with Crow, and is probably considered the more safer choice of the two. He had an outstanding season for San Diego albeit in a friendly environment. He went 9-2 with a 2.03 ERA and a 108/20 K/BB ratio. Matusz has a low 90’s fastball, and excellent secondary stuff (curve / change combo) with good command, as well as a slider which he’s still developing. Matusz can frustrate at times by relying more on his secondary stuff and not working off his fastball. He has the talent to become an elite lefty starter in the mould of an Andy Pettite if things click. It is unlikely that he will be available at No. 8 for the Sox, especially with the lack of top pitching prospects in this year’s draft. Tim Melville (RHS – Holt HS (MO). 6’5, 210, Bats R, Throws R, Age 18) Melville is one of the “wild cards” in this year’s draft, and could be chosen anywhere from the top 10, to the lower ends of the 1st round. At the start of the season, Melville was considered to be a sure-fire top 10 prospect due to the projectible stuff he had flashed in a mid 90’s fastball and a knuckle curve. However, this season Melville struggled. Some think that his arm could never get warmed up because of the cold weather all season long, while his command and his third pitch in a changeup were inconsistent at best. Pitchers with Melville’s stuff don’t grow on trees, so he should still be one of the first few pitchers chosen in the draft. He has been compared to Adam Wainwright, and depending on how his changeup develops, he could end up as a starter or in the bullpen. He is somebody who could be chosen a lot earlier than people expect, so he is one to look out for on draft day. Conclusion: The makeup of the top 10 will ultimately depend a lot on where two hitting prospects represented by Scott Boras in Pedro Alvarez and Eric Hosmer are taken. Boras has placed a $9.5 demand on Alvarez, a college first baseman who was the favorite to be chosen first before his mid-season hand injury, and a $7M package on Hosmer, a high school first baseman who has been compared to Casey Kotchman with a little more pop. If both of these players are chosen in the top four by either the Pirates, Royals or Orioles, the Sox should be able to get one of the higher ranked prospects at No. 8. However, if this scenario does not eventuate, the Sox could be forced into taking a Brett Wallace at No. 8. The most likely scenario has Gordon Beckham being available and taken by the Sox at No.8. Beckham fills a major need and projects to be a good offensive player in the major leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cali Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 How could Beckham be comparable to Greene/Young offensively? One player blows and the other one is quite good, so which one is it? haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 I love the thought of getting a stud SS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted June 4, 2008 Author Share Posted June 4, 2008 Personally I think both Khalil & Michael Young are solid shortstops. Young had a couple above average seasons but as a whole neither are what I consider upper echelon shortstops. However, there is a great article on Baseball-Intellect which actually breaks down Beckham's swing and compares it to Alex Rodriguez. The similarities are staggering. The only legitimate question is to ask whether Beckham has the bat speed and raw abilities of Alex Rodriguez (or even close to it). http://www.baseball-intellect.com/Articles...kham-swing.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted June 4, 2008 Author Share Posted June 4, 2008 I should add that the SS I absolutely love is Crawford out of UCLA and if he somehow is there in the 3rd round the Sox need to take him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 Whats with that kid from ASU? Is he Prince-fielder fat? Thats alot of weight with that height. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted June 4, 2008 Author Share Posted June 4, 2008 He's got big legs. However, he dropped a decent amount of weight and actually has solid speed. That said, you could probably say there would have to be at least some concers about his weight. He's a tremendous pure hitter whose had 2 straight triple crowns in the pac 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jun 4, 2008 -> 11:33 AM) He's got big legs. However, he dropped a decent amount of weight and actually has solid speed. That said, you could probably say there would have to be at least some concers about his weight. He's a tremendous pure hitter whose had 2 straight triple crowns in the pac 10. And we all know KW loves those ASU players, and has probably seen quite a bit of this kid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 QUOTE (Cali @ Jun 4, 2008 -> 12:14 PM) How could Beckham be comparable to Greene/Young offensively? One player blows and the other one is quite good, so which one is it? haha Get Greene out of PETCO and he'd actually be pretty good offensively. He's always had pretty good away splits over his career IIRC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quickman Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 QUOTE (RockRaines @ Jun 4, 2008 -> 10:40 AM) And we all know KW loves those ASU players, and has probably seen quite a bit of this kid. As I mentioned in other threads I saw him play in the spring, he can flat out hit. He clearly stood out as a higher caliber player then his teammates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 QUOTE (quickman @ Jun 4, 2008 -> 12:27 PM) As I mentioned in other threads I saw him play in the spring, he can flat out hit. He clearly stood out as a higher caliber player then his teammates. Timo-esque? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soxfan3530 Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 (edited) Two weeks ago i would say Beckham without out a doubt. However, Alexei is showing me he may be the shortstop of the future for this team. Edited June 4, 2008 by soxfan3530 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxFan562004 Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 QUOTE (DBAH0 @ Jun 4, 2008 -> 11:45 AM) Get Greene out of PETCO and he'd actually be pretty good offensively. He's always had pretty good away splits over his career IIRC. http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=greenkh01 he has about 40 points difference in his OPS+ between home and away, he is an above average hitting SS away and a below average hitting SS at home. Damn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wanne Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 QUOTE (quickman @ Jun 4, 2008 -> 11:27 AM) As I mentioned in other threads I saw him play in the spring, he can flat out hit. He clearly stood out as a higher caliber player then his teammates. What's crazy about Wallace is I think his numbers would have been better if Pat Murphy wouldn't have dicked around with him batting him leadoff for the first 15-18 games. I think he might have gotten 100 RBIs hitting in the 3-hole all year...I think he's a tad over 80. Ike Davis was no slouch at the plate either this year hitting around .395 with 16 dingers and over 2 dozen doubles. The whole team has nine guys hitting over .333 on the year. We'll see how they fare now in the Super Regionals. Luckily they missed going against Matusz and San Diego when Fresno knocked them out. They sure put a beating on people in their regional. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 QUOTE (SoxFan562004 @ Jun 4, 2008 -> 02:10 PM) http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=greenkh01 he has about 40 points difference in his OPS+ between home and away, he is an above average hitting SS away and a below average hitting SS at home. Damn. I remember we had a few discussions with San Diego about somebody (may have been Buehrle) last season, and Greene was mentioned. He could easily hit 20-25HR's a season at the Cell and give you about a .260 AVG, and play excellent defense. But the Pads wanted to hang onto him (although I wonder now with how they're doing, if a O-Cab for Greene swap (with other pieces being thrown in) could maybe be feasible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxFan562004 Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/base...ex.html?eref=T1 SI has the Sox taking Smoak since the SS isn't there. Saying KW was scouting the ACC games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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