"Don't tell me how well they hit, but when they hit them&quot

[WCSox]

Anderson is a better CF, but he's not a better hitter.

 

Considering that Taveras has no power at all and a career .334 OBP, he's not really a "better" hitter.

 

Owens, save for the 2nd half of '07, spent his career in the minor leagues. Taveras has not. You can't compare MLB career numbers to minor league career numbers. If that's the case we should be comparing Joe Borchard and Brad Eldred to Jim Thome.

 

I didn't use Owens' minor league numbers. And that's a silly comparison, especially considering that Owens almost equaled Taveras' career numbers in his first season with a meaningful number of at-bats.

 

Nice cherry-picking. Pods had a .351 OBP in '05 as a veteran. 2005 was Taveras' rookie year. He got on at a .367 clip last year. Taveras has a career OBP of .334, compared to Podsednik's career OBP of .337.

 

Pods was also limited with a groin injury over the past two months of '05 and Taveras has never had an OBP over .333 outside of last year. So why do you want him leading off again? I don't consider the 2005 Pods as anything more than an average leadoff hitter. His only real value was his speed.

 

Owens has nothing on Taveras and he's not a carbon copy player. Owens sucks. Taveras does not suck.

 

The only thing that Taveras has over Owens is that he's better in CF. The two are pretty much equal at the plate, and one could argue that Owens has better upside as a base-stealer. But given that the Sox have both Anderson and Swisher available to play CF and that Taveras has too low an OBP to be a legitimate leadoff hitter, I don't see Taveras bringing anything special to the table that makes him worth trading for. Taveras might be useful to a team that has nobody remotely capable of playing CF and too few outfielders in general. That isn't the case with the Sox.

 

As far as Taveras, well that's your opinion but I don't know what you expect our GM to do. I don't think Jose Reyes or Ichiro are available.

 

There's nothing that Kenny can do at this point without giving up Quentin, Danks, Floyd, or Fields.

 

2008 Nick Swisher, .359 career OBP

 

This is probably Kenny's best bet for the remainder of the year.

 

Finding a guy that can consistently get on at a .350 clip with plus speed and contact who can also hold his own in the field is pretty hard.

 

No kidding. That's why the Sox are going to have to suck it up and deal with Swisher or O-Cab leading off this year. Willy Taveras isn't the answer and Kenny would have to mortgage the future to get a guy like Reyes or Ichiro.

Edited June 22, 2008 by WCSox

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Considering that Taveras has no power at all and a career .334 OBP, he's not really a "better" hitter.

 

Taveras hits for better average and is a better situational hitter. Anderson has more power, and I like the guy by the way, but he's not a better hitter, especially for his role in the lineup. We don't need more pop-ups and home runs, we need guys that can move runners along and come up with clutch base hits. Brian in his MLB career has been the type of guy you hide in the lineup for his defense, whereas Taveras in his career has been used both for his bat/speed offensive combo and his defense.

 

That's a silly comparison, especially considering that Owens almost equaled Taveras' career numbers in his first season with a meaningful number of at-bats.

 

Taveras, 26, has put up his numbers over 1733 career AB's. Owens, 27, has 365. That's not a silly comparison.

 

Pods was also limited with a groin injury over the past two months of '05 and Taveras has never had an OBP over .333 outside of last year. So why do you want him leading off again? I don't consider the 2005 Pods as anything more than an average leadoff hitter. His only real value was his speed.

 

Taveras' time last year was limited due to injury and his manager going with the hot hand down the stretch. I don't get your point here.

 

Pods' speed was his game. It's the same thing with Taveras. The difference is, Taveras is younger, has been healthier, and has the tools to play a premium position.

 

You either have a manager that wants to play the speed game at the top or a manager that wants to play the base-clogging game at the top. Ours wants the speed game, and Taveras is a guy that can play it.

 

The only thing that Taveras has over Owens is that he's better in CF. The two are pretty much equal at the plate, and one could argue that Owens has better upside as a base-stealer. But given that the Sox have both Anderson and Swisher available to play CF and that Taveras has too low an OBP to be a legitimate leadoff hitter, I don't see Taveras bringing anything special to the table that makes him worth trading for. Taveras might be useful to a team that has nobody remotely capable of playing CF and too few outfielders in general. That isn't the case with the Sox.

 

It's not just that Taveras is a better CF, he is a CF whereas Owens is a bad LF. Taveras can play a defense-first position while Owens can only play a power position without the power. You are highly underestimating the value of a young speed guy that can play a great CF.

 

There's nothing that Kenny can do at this point without giving up Quentin, Danks, Floyd, or Fields.

 

I disagree. He can make moves to improve the club if we end up losing a slugger for a long period of time without sacrificing a major component of the team. If he wants an ideal leadoff hitter - .350+ OBP, plus speed, contact, fundamentals, instincts, defense at a premium non-power position, and the first true lead-off man we've had since Lofton - he's going to have to give up a ton. Roberts is the only ideal lead-off guy out there and the O's are asking for stupid s*** they're not going to get.

 

This is probably Kenny's best bet for the remainder of the year.

 

I don't think Kenny makes any serious moves this year unless a slugger hits the 60-day DL.

 

No kidding. That's why the Sox are going to have to suck it up and deal with Swisher or O-Cab leading off this year. Willy Taveras isn't the answer and Kenny would have to mortgage the future to get a guy like Reyes or Ichiro.

 

I disgree about Taveras not being "the answer" to a degree. We're probably not going to end up with anyone that is "the answer" at the lead-off position unless we can deal for Roberts, Figgins, or Willits over the offseason. If that's not the case, I think Taveras is the kind of guy we could strike gold with, ala Pods in '05 except as a better all-around player. If KW can pick up Taveras and a guy like Ellis or Hudson to hit second over the offseason, and they both have career average years, we'll have enough at the top of the lineup to change the dynamic of the team. We'll have enough to manufacture a run in the first inning and late off tough pitching, and we'll have the defense, the power, and hopefully the pitching to get us through the year.

[WCSox]

Taveras hits for better average and is a better situational hitter. Anderson has more power, and I like the guy by the way, but he's not a better hitter, especially for his role in the lineup. We don't need more pop-ups and home runs, we need guys that can move runners along and come up with clutch base hits. Brian in his MLB career has been the type of guy you hide in the lineup for his defense, whereas Taveras in his career has been used both for his bat/speed offensive combo and his defense.

 

Taveras is worthless as anything other than a leadoff hitter. And if he can't consistently put up a .350-.370 OBP, his only option is to lead off for a team that has crap defensively in CF. That's not the 2008 White Sox.

 

Taveras, 26, has put up his numbers over 1733 career AB's. Owens, 27, has 365.

 

And Owens pretty much equaled Taveras' career numbers in his rookie season. They're the same at the plate, with Taveras being better in CF.

 

That's not a silly comparison.

 

The silly comparison was Thome and Borchard.

 

Taveras' time last year was limited due to injury and his manager going with the hot hand down the stretch. I don't get your point here.

 

My point is that Taveras doesn't consistently get on base enough to lead off.

 

Pods' speed was his game. It's the same thing with Taveras. The difference is, Taveras is younger, has been healthier, and has the tools to play a premium position.

 

And neither can consistently get on base enough to be solid leadoff hitters.

 

You either have a manager that wants to play the speed game at the top or a manager that wants to play the base-clogging game at the top. Ours wants the speed game, and Taveras is a guy that can play it.

 

Taveras can't get on base enough to play the "speed game." His OBP is freaking .305 right now, with a career average of .334. That absolutely sucks for a leadoff hitter.

 

It's not just that Taveras is a better CF, he is a CF whereas Owens is a bad LF. Taveras can play a defense-first position while Owens can only play a power position without the power. You are highly underestimating the value of a young speed guy that can play a great CF.

 

Taveras isn't "great" in CF. He's above average, and not nearly as good as Anderson. FWIW, I don't want Owens in Chicago right now either.

 

I disagree. He can make moves to improve the club if we end up losing a slugger for a long period of time without sacrificing a major component of the team.

 

I don't think Kenny makes any serious moves this year unless a slugger hits the 60-day DL.

 

I'd love to see Paulie sit on the DL until mid-August to let his hand heal and see how Anderson shakes out, but I don't see that happening. I'd also strongly consider releasing Thome, but I don't see Kenny doing that either.

 

I disgree about Taveras not being "the answer" to a degree. We're probably not going to end up with anyone that is "the answer" at the lead-off position unless we can deal for Roberts, Figgins, or Willits over the offseason. If that's not the case, I think Taveras is the kind of guy we could strike gold with, ala Pods in '05 except as a better all-around player. If KW can pick up Taveras and a guy like Ellis or Hudson to hit second over the offseason, and they both have career average years, we'll have enough at the top of the lineup to change the dynamic of the team. We'll have enough to manufacture a run in the first inning and late off tough pitching, and we'll have the defense, the power, and hopefully the pitching to get us through the year.

 

You're trying to fit a round peg into a square hole. Taveras is a nice player, but there's NO ROOM FOR HIM on the 25-man roster right now. The Sox already have four legitimate starting outfielders, and Taveras doesn't bring enough to the table to merit roster space as a 5th. And he doesn't hit well enough to merit demoting Anderson.

 

The Sox need a legitimate leadoff hitter with some base-stealing capability. But it's not going to happen this year. They don't have the prospects to give up for said player and their roster is already overcrowded.

Edited June 22, 2008 by WCSox

[whitesoxfan101]

In batting average, the Sox are #5 in the AL with runners on base. #2 with runners in scoring position.

 

Batting average is always a misleading stat, and something only lazy, flat earth fans feel can determine anything. It works that way with the bases empty and it works that way with men in scoring position too. If you watch this team everyday, you know we are not a team that comes up with a lot of big hits.

Edited June 22, 2008 by whitesoxfan101

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Taveras is worthless as anything other than a leadoff hitter. And if he can't consistently put up a .350-.370 OBP, his only option is to lead off for a team that has crap defensively in CF. That's not the 2008 White Sox.

 

 

 

And Owens pretty much equaled Taveras' career numbers in his rookie season. They're the same at the plate, with Taveras being better in CF.

 

 

 

The silly comparison was Thome and Borchard.

 

 

 

My point is that Taveras doesn't consistently get on base enough to lead off.

 

 

 

And neither can consistently get on base enough to be solid leadoff hitters.

 

 

 

Taveras can't get on base enough to play the "speed game." His OBP is freaking .305 right now, with a career average of .334. That absolutely sucks for a leadoff hitter.

 

 

 

Taveras isn't "great" in CF. He's above average, and not nearly as good as Anderson. FWIW, I don't want Owens in Chicago right now either.

 

 

 

I'd love to see Paulie sit on the DL until mid-August to let his hand heal and see how Anderson shakes out, but I don't see that happening. I'd also strongly consider releasing Thome, but I don't see Kenny doing that either.

 

 

 

You're trying to fit a round peg into a square hole. Taveras is a nice player, but there's NO ROOM FOR HIM on the 25-man roster right now. The Sox already have four legitimate starting outfielders, and Taveras doesn't bring enough to the table to merit roster space as a 5th. And he doesn't hit well enough to merit demoting Anderson.

 

The Sox need a legitimate leadoff hitter with some base-stealing capability. But it's not going to happen this year. They don't have the prospects to give up for said player and their roster is already overcrowded.

Look, I know you don't like Taveras. You won't even say that he's capable of a Pods-in-'05 type year even though he had something very close to that last year. You think Owens is just as good at the plate, if not better, even though he hasn't proven it at the big league level. You don't think he's a better player than Brian Anderson even though he's been that through his career. You don't think a lead-off hitter is valuable unless he gets on base at a .350-.370 clip, even though you know we haven't had that for a long time and probably won't have it for a long time because, as you also know, Ozzie wants at least above average speed at that spot.

 

Just looking around the league, if the season ended today, the following teams would make the playoffs:

 

Boston, Sox, Angels, TB, Philly, Cubs, Cards, Arizona

 

Looking at their lead-off hitters (players that have led off for 5 games or more):

 

Boston - Ellsbury .358, Crisp .300, Pedroia .322

Sox - Cabrera .322, Swish .350

Angels - Figgins .422, Matthews .319, Izturis .330, Willits .319

TB - Iwamura .341

Philly - Rollins .346, Victorino .343, Taguchi .286, Werth .350

Cubs - Soriano .332, Johnson .343

Cardinals - Schumaker .367, Barton .336, Ryan .319

Arizona - Drew .306, Young .304

 

Out of those 21 players, there are a total of 5 that get on at a .350 clip or higher. 2 of them (Ellsbury, Figgins) are prototypical lead-off guys. Schumaker is kind of close to being that, Swisher is a middle of the order hitter who is no longer leading off because he doesn't have the speed, and Werth is a journeyman in the middle of a good year. Of those 8 teams only 3 of them regularly lead off with a guy who gets on at a .350 clip or higher, yet they'd all be playoff teams if the season ended today. You don't NEED to have a guy get on at that clip.

 

The idea that a guy like Taveras is worthless with his speed if he can't get on at that clip is frankly idiotic. Over a 550 AB season, a hitter with an OBP of .350 gets on base 192.5 times. Over a 550 AB season, a hitter with a .334 OBP (Willy's career OBP) gets on base 183.7 times. The difference there is 8.8 times, so rounding up, the 9 fewer times Willy gets on base makes him worthless comparitively? That's moronic. Those 184 times he gets on he's dangerous, and if the difference between him and say Roberts is not only 9 successes but also two more high ceiling prospects in trade and probably $5 million plus in salary on top of that, I'll take my chances with Willy.

[WCSox]

Look, I know you don't like Taveras.

 

Yeah, my response is based on a personal vendetta against Taveras. Good one.

 

You won't even say that he's capable of a Pods-in-'05 type year even though he had something very close to that last year.

 

Oh, he's CAPABLE for sure. But WILL he do it? He's currently sporting an Anderson-like .305 OBP. Do you want to risk giving up a prospect, hoping that he improves and doesn't get hurt again? I don't.

 

You think Owens is just as good at the plate, if not better, even though he hasn't proven it at the big league level.

 

Wrong. That said, I don't think that Owens is a solution, either.

 

You don't think he's a better player than Brian Anderson even though he's been that through his career.

 

He's inferior defensively. They're very different hitters, but I'll give you that Taveras is slightly better at the plate overall. Then again, at least Anderson fits the "defensive sub" role well. Taveras would be a downgrade as a defensive sub.

 

You don't think a lead-off hitter is valuable unless he gets on base at a .350-.370 clip, even though you know we haven't had that for a long time and probably won't have it for a long time because, as you also know, Ozzie wants at least above average speed at that spot.

 

Just looking around the league, if the season ended today, the following teams would make the playoffs:

 

Boston, Sox, Angels, TB, Philly, Cubs, Cards, Arizona

 

Looking at their lead-off hitters (players that have led off for 5 games or more):

 

Boston - Ellsbury .358, Crisp .300, Pedroia .322

Sox - Cabrera .322, Swish .350

Angels - Figgins .422, Matthews .319, Izturis .330, Willits .319

TB - Iwamura .341

Philly - Rollins .346, Victorino .343, Taguchi .286, Werth .350

Cubs - Soriano .332, Johnson .343

Cardinals - Schumaker .367, Barton .336, Ryan .319

Arizona - Drew .306, Young .304

 

Out of those 21 players, there are a total of 5 that get on at a .350 clip or higher. 2 of them (Ellsbury, Figgins) are prototypical lead-off guys. Schumaker is kind of close to being that, Swisher is a middle of the order hitter who is no longer leading off because he doesn't have the speed, and Werth is a journeyman in the middle of a good year. Of those 8 teams only 3 of them regularly lead off with a guy who gets on at a .350 clip or higher, yet they'd all be playoff teams if the season ended today. You don't NEED to have a guy get on at that clip.

 

Then why in the hell do you want to trade for a mediocre hitter like Taveras? Despite what you claim, he's not much of a contact hitter. Why not just go with a solid OBP guy like Swisher in the leadoff spot, who isn't much of a runner and has some power... rather than a base-stealer like Taveras, who can't get on to steal the stupid base in the first place?

 

Speed is nice, and I'm all for it. But you need it at the top of the lineup, and Taveras can't hit there. Just like Owens.

 

Also, some of the guys that you mention in that list (Rollins, Sizemore, Soriano) are valuable leading off because they can get into scoring position with one swing of the bat. Taveras and his .344 career SLG can't do that.

 

The idea that a guy like Taveras is worthless with his speed if he can't get on at that clip is frankly idiotic.

 

Not nearly as idiotic as your posts. Taveras isn't worth crap with his current .305 OBP, even with his speed, because he can't freaking get on base. If the Sox want a mediocre-OBP base-stealer, they might as well promote Owens to Chicago for free.

 

Your man-love for Taveras is mind-boggling. Is he a nice player? Sure. But is he worth trading a solid prospect to land when the Sox already have TWO center fielders on the 25-man roster? Hell no.

 

And if the Sox DID trade for Taveras, who would you remove from the lineup to make room for him? Paulie's coming back in about a week, which means that Swisher (likely) moves back to CF. Are you going to bench Swish for Willy Taveras? I hope not. How about Quentin or Dye? Or Thome? THERE'S NO FREAKING ROOM FOR HIM! This isn't a fantasy team. You need players to fit specific ROLES. Taveras would be a 4th outfielder on this team, and he lacks the defensive prowess to be an improvement over Anderson as a defensive sub.

Edited June 23, 2008 by WCSox

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Yeah, my response is based on a personal vendetta against Taveras. Good one.

 

 

 

Oh, he's CAPABLE for sure. But WILL he do it? He's currently sporting an Anderson-like .305 OBP. Do you want to risk giving up a prospect, hoping that he improves and doesn't get hurt again? I don't.

 

 

Wrong. That said, I don't think that Owens is a solution, either.

 

 

 

He's inferior defensively. They're very different hitters, but I'll give you that Taveras is slightly better at the plate overall. Then again, at least Anderson fits the "defensive sub" role well. Taveras would be a downgrade as a defensive sub.

 

 

 

Then why in the hell do you want to trade for a mediocre hitter like Taveras? Despite what you claim, he's not much of a contact hitter. Why not just go with a solid OBP guy like Swisher in the leadoff spot, who isn't much of a runner and has some power... rather than a base-stealer like Taveras, who can't get on to steal the stupid base in the first place?

 

Speed is nice, and I'm all for it. But you need it at the top of the lineup, and Taveras can't hit there. Just like Owens.

 

Also, some of the guys that you mention in that list (Rollins, Sizemore, Soriano) are valuable leading off because they can get into scoring position with one swing of the bat. Taveras and his .344 career SLG can't do that.

 

 

 

Not nearly as idiotic as your posts. Taveras isn't worth crap with his current .305 OBP, even with his speed, because he can't freaking get on base. If the Sox want a mediocre-OBP base-stealer, they might as well promote Owens to Chicago for free.

 

Your man-love for Taveras is mind-boggling. Is he a nice player? Sure. But is he worth trading a solid prospect to land when the Sox already have TWO center fielders on the 25-man roster? Hell no.

 

And if the Sox DID trade for Taveras, who would you remove from the lineup to make room for him? Paulie's coming back in about a week, which means that Swisher (likely) moves back to CF. Are you going to bench Swish for Willy Taveras? I hope not. How about Quentin or Dye? Or Thome? THERE'S NO FREAKING ROOM FOR HIM! This isn't a fantasy team. You need players to fit specific ROLES. Taveras would be a 4th outfielder on this team, and he lacks the defensive prowess to be an improvement over Anderson as a defensive sub.

 

Taveras isn't going to put up a .305 OBP forever. Yes, I'd buy low on a good player depending on the cost.

 

Your argument about a high OBP guy at the top with power and not much speed is pointless. As long as Ozzie is making out the lineup cards, we're not going to have that. That's not his game.

 

You can't put "a mediocre-OBP base-stealer" in the lineup when he's a liability in the field. When he can make the plays out there, then you can.

 

I don't know why you keep getting this idea that I'd bench a slugger for Taveras if acquired. I've been talking about the 2009 team or this year's team if someone goes down for a considerable length of time.

 

You say my posts are idiotic but you fail to realize that we're probably not going to have any player that you like as a lead-off guy for a long time, unless we make a splash for Roberts or Figgins next year. We're not going to have a Swisher type, or a Youklis type, or a Reyes type, or Rollins type, or anything like that. We'll probably have the same type of lead-off hitter we've had since Ozzie started managing the club, and that's a guy who doesn't overwhelm you with the bat or get on base at a high percentage but can do some things on the basepaths. Of all those kinds of players, Taveras is one that has a track record of being good and it's largely because of his abilities as a CF.

 

It's not that I have man-love for Taveras. It's that I understand the type of team our manager and GM want to build, I understand that there are large financial commitments to certain players, I understand we have a very weak farm system, and I understand there will most likely be an opening in CF next year. Taveras has the speed Ozzie and Kenny like, he has a small salary, he shouldn't take all that much to acquire in terms of talent, and he plays a great CF. I too could go on and on about what type of player I'd prefer in the lead-off spot but there's no point since the majority of those players aren't realistic acquisitions. Taveras is a realistic acquisition which is why I mentioned him. In fact, according to Ed Farmer the Sox tried to acquire him both after 2006 and 2007. So if you think he sucks, well that's too bad because your team's manager and general manager both like him and he'll probably be a target over the offseason - even after a down year, just like how KW picked up the Great Podsednik.

[WCSox]

Taveras isn't going to put up a .305 OBP forever. Yes, I'd buy low on a good player depending on the cost.

 

I would too, but there's pretty much nothing left in our farm system. I'd feel more inclined to hold onto what we have right now than trade away more talent for an average player that won't help this year's team very much. Kenny has dealt A LOT of minor-league talent over the past four years. If he's going to do it again, it'd better be for a big impact guy like Roberts or Figgins.

 

Your argument about a high OBP guy at the top with power and not much speed is pointless. As long as Ozzie is making out the lineup cards, we're not going to have that. That's not his game.

 

Funny, Swisher was our opening day leadoff hitter, no? I know what Ozzie likes, but he hasn't had that type of player since 2005.

 

I don't know why you keep getting this idea that I'd bench a slugger for Taveras if acquired. I've been talking about the 2009 team or this year's team if someone goes down for a considerable length of time.

 

So you're advocating trading for a player to hypothetically fill in for an injured player who hasn't gotten hurt yet, or to fill out a 2009 roster that's still completely up in the air? That's pretty silly.

 

You say my posts are idiotic but you fail to realize that we're probably not going to have any player that you like as a lead-off guy for a long time, unless we make a splash for Roberts or Figgins next year. We're not going to have a Swisher type, or a Youklis type, or a Reyes type, or Rollins type, or anything like that. We'll probably have the same type of lead-off hitter we've had since Ozzie started managing the club, and that's a guy who doesn't overwhelm you with the bat or get on base at a high percentage but can do some things on the basepaths. Of all those kinds of players, Taveras is one that has a track record of being good and it's largely because of his abilities as a CF.

 

If the Sox are going to make a move this year, it's going to be FOR THIS YEAR. Not next year. As for acquiring Taveras in the off-season, that's fine with me because the Sox are going to be in rebuilding mode then anyway. I'm not relying on Anderson or Swisher to be a long-term option at CF. I'm hoping that Thome is gone next year, that JD moves to DH, that Quentin moves to RF, Swisher moves to LF, and somebody is brought in to compete with Anderson for CF. If it's Taveras, that's fine with me. But this isn't the time to trade for him.

 

It's not that I have man-love for Taveras. It's that I understand the type of team our manager and GM want to build, I understand that there are large financial commitments to certain players, I understand we have a very weak farm system, and I understand there will most likely be an opening in CF next year. Taveras has the speed Ozzie and Kenny like, he has a small salary, he shouldn't take all that much to acquire in terms of talent, and he plays a great CF. I too could go on and on about what type of player I'd prefer in the lead-off spot but there's no point since the majority of those players aren't realistic acquisitions. Taveras is a realistic acquisition which is why I mentioned him. In fact, according to Ed Farmer the Sox tried to acquire him both after 2006 and 2007. So if you think he sucks, well that's too bad because your team's manager and general manager both like him and he'll probably be a target over the offseason - even after a down year, just like how KW picked up the Great Podsednik.

 

I never said that he "sucks" and I find it sad that you're using these stupid straw man arguments. I've repeatedly said that Taveras is a "nice" player. Your posts in this thread have become downright dishonest.

Edited June 23, 2008 by WCSox

[gosox41]

Look, I know you don't like Taveras. You won't even say that he's capable of a Pods-in-'05 type year even though he had something very close to that last year. You think Owens is just as good at the plate, if not better, even though he hasn't proven it at the big league level. You don't think he's a better player than Brian Anderson even though he's been that through his career. You don't think a lead-off hitter is valuable unless he gets on base at a .350-.370 clip, even though you know we haven't had that for a long time and probably won't have it for a long time because, as you also know, Ozzie wants at least above average speed at that spot.

 

Just looking around the league, if the season ended today, the following teams would make the playoffs:

 

Boston, Sox, Angels, TB, Philly, Cubs, Cards, Arizona

 

Looking at their lead-off hitters (players that have led off for 5 games or more):

 

Boston - Ellsbury .358, Crisp .300, Pedroia .322

Sox - Cabrera .322, Swish .350

Angels - Figgins .422, Matthews .319, Izturis .330, Willits .319

TB - Iwamura .341

Philly - Rollins .346, Victorino .343, Taguchi .286, Werth .350

Cubs - Soriano .332, Johnson .343

Cardinals - Schumaker .367, Barton .336, Ryan .319

Arizona - Drew .306, Young .304

 

Out of those 21 players, there are a total of 5 that get on at a .350 clip or higher. 2 of them (Ellsbury, Figgins) are prototypical lead-off guys. Schumaker is kind of close to being that, Swisher is a middle of the order hitter who is no longer leading off because he doesn't have the speed, and Werth is a journeyman in the middle of a good year. Of those 8 teams only 3 of them regularly lead off with a guy who gets on at a .350 clip or higher, yet they'd all be playoff teams if the season ended today. You don't NEED to have a guy get on at that clip.

 

The idea that a guy like Taveras is worthless with his speed if he can't get on at that clip is frankly idiotic. Over a 550 AB season, a hitter with an OBP of .350 gets on base 192.5 times. Over a 550 AB season, a hitter with a .334 OBP (Willy's career OBP) gets on base 183.7 times. The difference there is 8.8 times, so rounding up, the 9 fewer times Willy gets on base makes him worthless comparitively? That's moronic. Those 184 times he gets on he's dangerous, and if the difference between him and say Roberts is not only 9 successes but also two more high ceiling prospects in trade and probably $5 million plus in salary on top of that, I'll take my chances with Willy.

 

Are these numbers their season OBP's or their OBP's while hitting in the lead oft spo?

 

I see what you're saying, and I selected the lead off role as an example because it's the obvious source. But most of the teams you mentioned here don't have 6 one dimensional hitters with no speed behind them. Some of these teams have guys that can do things like lay down a bunt and hit to all fields instead of trying to pull everything.

 

FWIW, as hard as it is too find, I'll still take a prototypical leadoff hiter who can steal 50 bases and maintain a .370 or high OBP. Heck, I'll take less OBP right about now for a guy who can steal a base. It's why Sox fans voted Pods on the All Star team in '05. He was far from a great hitter. But he is a game changer. He messes with defenses when he's on base and it makes thoe that hit behind him more productive. that being said, I don't want Pods again.

 

 

 

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I would too, but there's pretty much nothing left in our farm system. I'd feel more inclined to hold onto what we have right now than trade away more talent for an average player that won't help this year's team very much. Kenny has dealt A LOT of minor-league talent over the past four years. If he's going to do it again, it'd better be for a big impact guy like Roberts or Figgins.

 

Again, not talking about this year's team. I thought we already agreed on Kenny not making any big moves this season.

 

Funny, Swisher was our opening day leadoff hitter, no? I know what Ozzie likes, but he hasn't had that type of player since 2005.

 

Yes, Swisher did lead off to start the season. Ozzie moved him because he didn't want him there anymore. The type of production Ozzie got out of the lead-off slot in 2005 either comes from a great player or a good player in a great year. We have a better shot of getting a good player and hoping he has a great year than we do of getting a great player.

 

So you're advocating trading for a player to hypothetically fill in for an injured player who hasn't gotten hurt yet, or to fill out a 2009 roster that's still completely up in the air? That's pretty silly.

 

Um, I'm saying if someone goes down he'll be looked at, otherwise he'll be a target next year. As far as what priority he'll be, who knows, but he's on Kenny's list. I don't know why it's silly to speculate on the future of the Sox on a Sox fan message board. The makeup of the team has to change and it's probably not happening this season.

 

If the Sox are going to make a move this year, it's going to be FOR THIS YEAR. Not next year. As for acquiring Taveras in the off-season, that's fine with me because the Sox are going to be in rebuilding mode then anyway. I'm not relying on Anderson or Swisher to be a long-term option at CF. I'm hoping that Thome is gone next year, that JD moves to DH, that Quentin moves to RF, Swisher moves to LF, and somebody is brought in to compete with Anderson for CF. If it's Taveras, that's fine with me. But this isn't the time to trade for him.

 

I agree, this isn't the time to trade for him. But, if KW got an offer he couldn't refuse I'd be fine with sending down Wise or dumping Ozuna or trading/sending down Anderson to give him AB's as a 4th OF for now.

 

I never said that he "sucks" and I find it sad that you're using these stupid straw man arguments. I've repeatedly said that Taveras is a "nice" player. Your posts in this thread have become downright dishonest.

 

Just scroll up on the page, it's pretty easy to find you saying:

 

"Taveras is worthless as anything other than a leadoff hitter. And if he can't consistently put up a .350-.370 OBP, his only option is to lead off for a team that has crap defensively in CF. That's not the 2008 White Sox."

 

"And Owens pretty much equaled Taveras' career numbers in his rookie season. They're the same at the plate, with Taveras being better in CF."

 

"Taveras can't get on base enough to play the "speed game." His OBP is freaking .305 right now, with a career average of .334. That absolutely sucks for a leadoff hitter."

 

So he's worthless as anything other than a lead-off hitter, but his career OBP sucks for a lead-off hitter, and Jerry Owens is at least as good of a hitter if not better. I just summed it all up by saying you think he sucks - as an everyday player anyway, which is what this conversation is about.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Are these numbers their season OBP's or their OBP's while hitting in the lead oft spo?

 

I see what you're saying, and I selected the lead off role as an example because it's the obvious source. But most of the teams you mentioned here don't have 6 one dimensional hitters with no speed behind them. Some of these teams have guys that can do things like lay down a bunt and hit to all fields instead of trying to pull everything.

 

FWIW, as hard as it is too find, I'll still take a prototypical leadoff hiter who can steal 50 bases and maintain a .370 or high OBP. Heck, I'll take less OBP right about now for a guy who can steal a base. It's why Sox fans voted Pods on the All Star team in '05. He was far from a great hitter. But he is a game changer. He messes with defenses when he's on base and it makes thoe that hit behind him more productive. that being said, I don't want Pods again.

Those numbers are just their regular season OBP's this year. I don't know where to find more detailed stats as far as hitting in a certain spot.

 

Yes, most of those teams have a lot better balance. We need some better balance too, and part of it IMO is finding some guys that can make things happen on the basepaths and play fundamentally sound baseball so that way we can manufacture runs here and there.

 

I don't want Pods again either. He can never stay healthy and he can't play CF.

[WCSox]

Again, not talking about this year's team. I thought we already agreed on Kenny not making any big moves this season.

 

I wasn't involved in this conversation prior to today.

 

Yes, Swisher did lead off to start the season. Ozzie moved him because he didn't want him there anymore.

 

Wrong. He moved him because he was in a terrible slump. If Swisher had performed at his career average, he'd still be hitting there.

 

Um, I'm saying if someone goes down he'll be looked at, otherwise he'll be a target next year. As far as what priority he'll be, who knows, but he's on Kenny's list. I don't know why it's silly to speculate on the future of the Sox on a Sox fan message board.

 

He WAS on Kenny's list, before he signed Swisher. I don't know why you're so certain that he's still on Kenny's radar. If I were Kenny, I'd be somewhat put off by the season he's currently having.

 

The makeup of the team has to change

 

Gee, I never would've guessed that with a $100+ million payroll, a just-above-average team, and a number of aging sluggers whose contracts expire soon.

 

Just scroll up on the page, it's pretty easy to find you saying:

 

"Taveras is worthless as anything other than a leadoff hitter. And if he can't consistently put up a .350-.370 OBP, his only option is to lead off for a team that has crap defensively in CF. That's not the 2008 White Sox."

 

"And Owens pretty much equaled Taveras' career numbers in his rookie season. They're the same at the plate, with Taveras being better in CF."

 

"Taveras can't get on base enough to play the "speed game." His OBP is freaking .305 right now, with a career average of .334. That absolutely sucks for a leadoff hitter."

 

So he's worthless as anything other than a lead-off hitter, but his career OBP sucks for a lead-off hitter, and Jerry Owens is at least as good of a hitter if not better. I just summed it all up by saying you think he sucks - as an everyday player anyway, which is what this conversation is about.

 

Taveras with an OBP of .305 indeed does suck. That doesn't mean that the Sox can't take a flyer on him in the offseason, but he absolutely does suck right now as a hitter. On our team, he'd be worthless because his OBP is way too low for a leadoff hitter and O-Cab's presence means that he can't hit in the 2-hole either. He also has absolutely zero power (career .344 career SLG), which is a huge negative. He's never eclipsed 3 homers or 19 doubles in a season. Meanwhile, Swisher has averaged 31 doubles and 26 homers over the past three seasons. So even if Taveras steals 33 bases (and gets thrown out 9 times), a guy like Swish (who has a higher OBP, to boot) is going to be more valuable in at the top of the lineup because he's able to put himself in scoring position with his bat. It's no wonder that Kenny traded for Swisher this winter, rather than Taveras.

 

And when evaluating a player, I take into account factors beyond their plate performance. Obviously, Taveras has other skills - namely his base-steadling capability and very solid defense in CF. So, no, I'm not saying that he "sucks" in general. His career numbers suggest that he sucks AT THE PLATE. Similarly, Anderson more or less "sucks" as a hitter as well, but has value elsewhere. So, no, your characterization of my remarks is completely off base.

 

Taveras has a lot of talent and is a good fit on a number of teams that are deficient in CF. I wouldn't characterize him as completely worthless, but his value is certainly limited. He's basically Owens with the ability to play solid defense in CF. He's had his moments, but he's incredibly inconsistent. If he were as good as you think that he is, the Astros never would've let him go.

 

And until the Sox move Thome or Paulie, Swisher will be in CF and there will be no room for Taveras anyway.

Edited June 23, 2008 by WCSox