Beware of History

[Cochise]

At around this point last year, The Tribe were a game behind the Tigers. We all know who ended out on top and who was sitting at home in October.

 

How does this relate to us? The Twins currently sit one game behind us in the standings. I am tired of hearing that they won't be around at the end of the season, or that they aren't as good as we are. This is the same story I heard time and again from 2002-2004 and again in 2006 when they were the ones who ended up playing in October while we sat watching them, pissed off knowing that the Sox blew it. They always play above their heads, thats the kind of play Gardenhire gets out of his teams. Also, notice that the Twins have gone 19-5 since we swept them at the Cell a month ago. They obviously can't maintain a clip like that, but I don't think this team is going to go away. Plus, there is always the Tigers, who could come alive at any moment. I know we have been saying that all season, and as each day passes and they remain 7 games back, it becomes harder and harder to dig themselves out of a hole like that. But that offense could come out an dominate, and if they make some moves in the coming weeks to tweak some of the weaknesses they have, they could be another thorn in our sides.

 

Its not all gloom and doom, though I have a propensity to be one of the first to start shouting that the sky is falling, but we need to get some things together. We need to start winning road games. We need to keep beating teams we should beat, and we need to keep beating up on our own division. If we do that, I think the division should be ours for the taking.

 

All of that said, I think the team that poses the biggest threat to hinder the Sox playoff chances is the Sox themselves. We need to avoid prolonged slumps. The season is more than half over, we know what we have. We have a streaky team that is very reliant on the longball. It doesn't look like we are going to make any significant trades. Hopefully we can maintain the pitching we have had yearlong and remain healthy. I'd like to see PK come back with some renewed vigor and maybe provide a little extra offensive jolt. I'd really like to see Javy not suck has recently and has in big game situations. Maybe Jose can revert to pre-June form and Buehrle can remain in June form. The youngsters hopefully will pitch as wonderfully as they have been and they bullpen will hopefully remain rested and dominant. Bobby needs to come back to Linebrink isn't coughing up 9th inning homers anymore. This is a lot to ask for, but I think they Sox can do it. I hope they can.

Edited July 7, 2008 by NorthSideSox15

[YASNY]

Nice post. You summed it up very well, imo.

[RockRaines]

The twins are as hot as a team can get during a season of ups and downs, and yet we still held them off so far.

[Swingandalongonetoleft]

Tomorrow they can get within a 1/2 game and we can't do anything about that. On one hand it's pretty demoralizing to win 15/14 like they've done and not be able to catch the first place team, on the other we've also been pretty damn good and haven't been able to shake them off. I still think in the end Detroit is somehow going to be involved, but for now, somethings gotta give- I doubt both teams can keep winning every game they play too much longer.

[whitesoxfan101]

The post is good, but the premise that history is relevant is wrong IMO. I have learned to ignore the term "beware of history" since 2005. Now that I've gotten that pet peeve off my chest, your point that the biggest threat to the Sox playoff chances is the Sox is 100 percent correct. We are clearly the most talented and best all around team in this divison, but that doesn't mean we will win the division. Still have to play well, and if you want to use "history" as an example that the best team doesn't always win the division, the 2003 Sox are a good place to look. The good news is the Twins have 5 more road games left than we do, and are starting a stretch of very difficult schedule tomorrow in Boston.

Edited July 7, 2008 by whitesoxfan101

[jenksycat]

The sox played like ass, then won a bunch of games, then lost a couple, etc. The Twins went 16-2. The sox are still 1 game up.

 

The way I see it, the Twins cannot keep up that pace (and if they do, they will be the greatest baseball team in the history of the MLB) but the sox can keep up the moderate streaky pace they are at.

[Lemon_44]

On paper, you would think the Sox may open up some ground this week. The twins go to Boston and Detroit while the Sox go to KC and Tex. If the Sox can get their act together on the road, which, to me, is the main change needed to winning the division, they could have a 2 to 3 game lead again.

[beck72]

If the sox pitch in the 2nd half near as well as they have in the 1st, they should be fine regardless of what the Twins or Tigers do. Only Dye and AJ are hitting above their career norms [though Quentin and Ramirez also have hit higher than projected and might cool off]. The key for me is how the middle of the order hits with Thome, PK, Crede and Swisher.

[RME JICO]

At around this point last year, The Tribe were a game behind the Tigers. We all know who ended out on top and who was sitting at home in October.

 

How does this relate to us? The Twins currently sit one game behind us in the standings. I am tired of hearing that they won't be around at the end of the season, or that they aren't as good as we are. This is the same story I heard time and again from 2002-2004 and again in 2006 when they were the ones who ended up playing in October while we sat watching them, pissed off knowing that the Sox blew it. They always play above their heads, thats the kind of play Gardenhire gets out of his teams. Also, notice that the Twins have gone 19-5 since we swept them at the Cell a month ago. They obviously can't maintain a clip like that, but I don't think this team is going to go away. Plus, there is always the Tigers, who could come alive at any moment. I know we have been saying that all season, and as each day passes and they remain 7 games back, it becomes harder and harder to dig themselves out of a hole like that. But that offense could come out an dominate, and if they make some moves in the coming weeks to tweak some of the weaknesses they have, they could be another thorn in our sides.

 

Its not all gloom and doom, though I have a propensity to be one of the first to start shouting that the sky is falling, but we need to get some things together. We need to start winning road games. We need to keep beating teams we should beat, and we need to keep beating up on our own division. If we do that, I think the division should be ours for the taking.

 

All of that said, I think the team that poses the biggest threat to hinder the Sox playoff chances is the Sox themselves. We need to avoid prolonged slumps. The season is more than half over, we know what we have. We have a streaky team that is very reliant on the longball. It doesn't look like we are going to make any significant trades. Hopefully we can maintain the pitching we have had yearlong and remain healthy. I'd like to see PK come back with some renewed vigor and maybe provide a little extra offensive jolt. I'd really like to see Javy not suck has recently and has in big game situations. Maybe Jose can revert to pre-June form and Buehrle can remain in June form. The youngsters hopefully will pitch as wonderfully as they have been and they bullpen will hopefully remain rested and dominant. Bobby needs to come back to Linebrink isn't coughing up 9th inning homers anymore. This is a lot to ask for, but I think they Sox can do it. I hope they can.

NorthSideSox15,

The Twins went 19-5 and we are still in 1st place. We are 10-3 in our last 13, and have a 24-11 Divisional record.

 

For Minnesota, they have played 5 more home games than us and had that huge run during interleague play. This week will be a great test for them as they play 7 on the road in Boston and Detroit. Minnesota will be around all year, but Detroit has much more potential to do some damage.

[CanOfCorn]

While you are absolutely correct about the Sox being their biggest challenge...the Twins have had a relatively easy schedule since the Sox sweep. The only team that is really scary...and that is really only in their own division, is the Brewers. They also played such powerhouses as the Nats, Padres and Indians. Yes, they did play the first place D-Backs, but they are at .500 right now and are struggling. They did take 2/3 from the Tigers and took 4/6 from the Brew Crew, but, this isn't a team that swept the best of the best. Then I would be more worried.

[kapkomet]

While you are absolutely correct about the Sox being their biggest challenge...the Twins have had a relatively easy schedule since the Sox sweep. The only team that is really scary...and that is really only in their own division, is the Brewers. They also played such powerhouses as the Nats, Padres and Indians. Yes, they did play the first place D-Backs, but they are at .500 right now and are struggling. They did take 2/3 from the Tigers and took 4/6 from the Brew Crew, but, this isn't a team that swept the best of the best. Then I would be more worried.

The Twins did what we need to do - win against the teams that we should. That is it, in a nutshell, IMO.

 

[TCQ]

The only reason the twins are still around is because they are batting in the mid 300s with RISP and about 288 with RISP/2outs. There is absolutely no way that any team can keep that pace up, let alone the twins with only two accepted good hitters.

 

Also with their pitching, all but one of their pitchers have never thrown 200 innings in a season.

Most

Baker-143

Nick Blackburn-11.2

Boof Bonser-173

Livan Hernandez-204 last year

Slowey-66.2

Perkins-28.2

 

So other than livan i dont know how all these guys can continue the pace their on. I know liriano is coming back and has done well in the minors but still he hasnt done well against major leaguers in 2 years.

[Rowand44]

The Twins roster isn't very impressive imo but I refuse to count the Twins out of anything, ever.

[kapkomet]

The Twins play a damn good fundamental baseball game. Always have. They are a sound, decent baseball team year in and year out, primarily because they play the game the right way all through their system.

 

[thedoctor]

i think it goes without saying that a team in first place controls its own destiny.

 

the sox just need to keep doing what they've been doing. it seems to have worked well.

[Cochise]

The post is good, but the premise that history is relevant is wrong IMO. I have learned to ignore the term "beware of history" since 2005. Now that I've gotten that pet peeve off my chest, your point that the biggest threat to the Sox playoff chances is the Sox is 100 percent correct. We are clearly the most talented and best all around team in this divison, but that doesn't mean we will win the division. Still have to play well, and if you want to use "history" as an example that the best team doesn't always win the division, the 2003 Sox are a good place to look. The good news is the Twins have 5 more road games left than we do, and are starting a stretch of very difficult schedule tomorrow in Boston.

 

 

Just wanted something sort of flashy to catch people's eyes. I guess it was too cliche, my bad.

[LVSoxFan]

I am hardly what anybody here would call a Sox optimist (see sig) but I will tell you this: yes, it's a pain to have Minny right on our ass right now... BUT....

 

If anybody had told me that at the ASB we would be at or just out of first place I would not have believed you.

 

Let's be honest: it's a wonder we're still hanging in considering that the small-ball days of 2005 are nowhere to be found. We're old, we're slow and we're more than HR-dependent. Heading into this season I thought: 3rd place at best. And with Detroit looking like a monster, Cleveland fresh off a playoffs and the always-annoying Twins... how can it be we're in first? So I'll take it.

 

As they say, you can't win a season in the first half, but you can lose it. And we haven't done that (unless we get swept in KC and Texas this week). So there IS cause for optimism. As long as we get hot 2nd half and not tired, with the pitching breaking down (and then we're screwed).

 

We've also got two suprise, out-of-nowhere players: Ramirez and Quentin. I didn't even factor them in before the start of the season because I'd never heard of them. Not only that, but the Indians just traded away Sox-killer C.C. Sabathia.

 

I'd be still very surprised if we win the division, but hey: I'll be the first to admit I'm surprised we've made it this far.

Edited July 7, 2008 by LVSoxFan

[StrangeSox]

I am hardly what anybody here would call a Sox optimist (see sig) but I will tell you this: yes, it's a pain to have Minny right on our ass right now... BUT....

 

If anybody had told me that at the ASB we would be at or just out of first place I would not have believed you.

Let's be honest: it's a wonder we're still hanging in considering that the small-ball days of 2005 are nowhere to be found. We're old, we're slow and we're more than HR-dependent. Heading into this season I thought: 3rd place at best. And with Detroit looking like a monster, Cleveland fresh off a playoffs and the always-annoying Twins... how can it be we're in first? So I'll take it.

 

As they say, you can't win a season in the first half, but you can lose it. And we haven't done that (unless we get swept in KC and Texas this week). So there IS cause for optimism. As long as we get hot 2nd half and not tired, with the pitching breaking down (and then we're screwed).

 

We've also got two suprise, out-of-nowhere players: Ramirez and Quentin. I didn't even factor them in before the start of the season because I'd never heard of them. Not only that, but the Indians just traded away Sox-killer C.C. Sabathia.

 

I'd be still very surprised if we win the division, but hey: I'll be the first to admit I'm surprised we've made it this far.

 

What does that tell you besides giving up outs via sacrifice bunts and getting caught stealing to "manufacture" runs isn't really the best way to score? Good OBP + doubles/ HR's = great offense.

[RockRaines]

What does that tell you besides giving up outs via sacrifice bunts and getting caught stealing to "manufacture" runs isn't really the best way to score? Good OBP + doubles/ HR's = great offense.

This team has to see a hell of alot more pitches than that team as well.

[almagest]

What does that tell you besides giving up outs via sacrifice bunts and getting caught stealing to "manufacture" runs isn't really the best way to score? Good OBP + doubles/ HR's = great offense.

There is a ton of research showing that bunting is only really useful in close and late situations, and that basestealers need to steal at >75% success rate to contribute positively to runs scored, yet people continually assert that what the Sox are "missing" is this nebulous concept of run manufacturing. I really don't understand it, especially since the Sox hit over 200 home runs in 2005, and slugged their way through all but 2 or 3 games in the playoffs. Our problem this year has been a couple of black holes throughout the lineup (Swisher, Cabrera, Konerko, Thome, Uribe) that only now are starting to produce, or are on the bench/injured. We weren't struggling offensively because we weren't bunting with a runner on first or second in the 5th inning.

 

Anyway, back on topic. The Twins are unbelievably annoying. But they won't continue to be this good. I really think that 90 wins is the benchmark for winning the division, and all the Sox need to do is focus on winning at least that many games. The rest will take care of itself.

[greg775]

There's so much ball left who knows what will happen?

I think the Twins and Tigers are for real.

It'd be nice to keep playing well against the Royals. We're off to a good start vs. them

this year.

[DABearSoX]

 

 

in '04 the Red Sox won and in '05 we won....

 

in '07 the Red Sox won and in '08...

 

Does history repeat itself?

[Kyyle23]

in '04 the Red Sox won and in '05 we won....

 

in '07 the Red Sox won and in '08...

 

Does history repeat itself?

 

Haha! I will subscribe to that theory

[jenksycat]

in '04 the Red Sox won and in '05 we won....

 

in '07 the Red Sox won and in '08...

 

Does history repeat itself?

 

That has been my quote since the minute the BoCrox won in '07.

 

Its actually kind of weird:

 

BO wins in 04, has a decent 05 but loses in the first round, bombs in 06, wins in 07.

 

Chi wins in 05, has decent 06 but the division is ridiculous, bombs in 07, ____ in 08.

[WilliamTell]

The twins are as hot as a team can get during a season of ups and downs, and yet we still held them off so far.

 

In 2006 they started getting hot in June, and never let up.

Edited July 7, 2008 by WilliamTell