The Democrat Thread

[StrangeSox]

In the name of reducing deficits (a grand total of about $60M over 5 years) and also some concerns over abortion (which isn't in the act), House Republicans have blocked an anti-child marriage bill.

 

WASHINGTON -- On Thursday, the House took up the International Protecting Girls by Preventing Child Marriage Act of 2010. The bill would ensure that child marriage is recognized as a human rights violation, and develop comprehensive strategies to prevent such marriages around the world. The legislation seemed likely to garner strong bipartisan support in Congress, and in the Senate, it did. But last night, the bill was voted down in the House by Republicans who argued the bill is too costly and could lead to increased abortions -- gripes the measure's supporters say have no basis in reality and are just excuses to kill the popular bill.

 

The measure, introduced by Sens. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), passed the Senate by unanimous consent and attracted a list of 42 cosponsors, including Sens. David Vitter (R-La.) and Roger Wicker (R-Miss.). It also had the support of nonpartisan groups like the YWCA. On Dec. 6, former president of Ireland Mary Robinson and Nobel Peace Prize winner Desmond Tutu wrote an op-ed in The Washington Post, praising the United States for stepping up: "This act illustrates how support for securing a just and healthy life for every woman and girl transcends politics."

[StrangeSox]

They can create charts and fudge numbers all they want.

 

I know that the costs of everything I do have gone up. That's inflation. And it's > 0%. We can shut our eyes and pretend prices have not gone up...but they have, across the board.

 

I don't care what some bulls*** chart says, either.

 

Statistics/data sampling & analysis > anecdotes.

[NorthSideSox72]

Statistics/data sampling & analysis > anecdotes.

Don't bother, Y2HH has mastered the big glass parking lot method of discussion. All charts, statistics, and actual data is useless. All that matters is anecdotal experiences.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

By the way, on inflation... while its very low now, that will not last. Give it a couple years, and we will be seeing big inflation numbers.

 

[StrangeSox]

Don't bother, Y2HH has mastered the big glass parking lot method of discussion. All charts, statistics, and actual data is useless. All that matters is anecdotal experiences.

 

Oh, I know.

[Balta1701]

By the way, on inflation... while its very low now, that will not last. Give it a couple years, and we will be seeing big inflation numbers.

Disagree. The main reason why that won't be even possible is that the Federal Reserve is likely to be very aggressive in preventing it...and they have an enormous amount of room to move in that direction without even raising rates, just by selling off the stuff it took onto its balance sheet.

 

If there is an inflation spike, it won't be driven by the amount of "Money" generated during the crisis or by the size of the deficits, it's going to be generated by energy costs.

[Y2HH]

Don't bother, Y2HH has mastered the big glass parking lot method of discussion. All charts, statistics, and actual data is useless. All that matters is anecdotal experiences.

 

This isn't true at all.

 

Way to character assassinate someone who disagrees with most of your financial opinions, though, and then have your lackeys agree with a simple minded, "oh, I know...", load of s***.

 

I know a LOT about finance. More than most of you ever will. But I know, my "anecdotal" evidence of rising prices isn't real -- because a chart says so.

 

The fact that you guys believe I'm wrong, and prices have not risen (if I'm wrong and you are right, they haven't), shows how stupid and absolutely retarded both of you are in regard to finance...

 

Prices HAVE risen, prices ARE rising.

[StrangeSox]

This isn't true at all.

 

Way to character assassinate someone who disagrees with most of your financial opinions, though, and then have your lackeys agree with a simple minded, "oh, I know...", load of s***.

 

I know a LOT about finance. More than most of you ever will. But I know, my "anecdotal" evidence of rising prices isn't real -- because a chart says so.

 

The fact that you guys believe I'm wrong, and prices have not risen (if I'm wrong and you are right, they haven't), shows how stupid and absolutely retarded both of you are in regard to finance...

 

Prices HAVE risen, prices ARE rising.

 

You've hand-waved away data on numerous issues, not just this particular finance issue. You always prefer your personal stories and thoughts to data and analysis. That's terrible reasoning, sorry. Everyone is susceptible to all sorts of bias, conscious and subconscious, and that makes anecdotal evidence less than reliable.

[NorthSideSox72]

Disagree. The main reason why that won't be even possible is that the Federal Reserve is likely to be very aggressive in preventing it...and they have an enormous amount of room to move in that direction without even raising rates, just by selling off the stuff it took onto its balance sheet.

 

If there is an inflation spike, it won't be driven by the amount of "Money" generated during the crisis or by the size of the deficits, it's going to be generated by energy costs.

Let's see what happens in 2-3 years. Now, to be clear, I am not saying its going to be like the early 80's or anything. We won't see 14% mortgages. Too much headroom to work with, as you mention. But I will not at all be surprised when its spiking to 5-6%, the Fed acts, and all that does is stabilize it in that range.

 

And I know you like to focus on energy, but energy is just one piece of the puzzle. The amount of cash being put into the economy, as well as other factors, all play in.

 

This isn't true at all.

 

Way to character assassinate someone who disagrees with most of your financial opinions, though, and then have your lackeys agree with a simple minded, "oh, I know...", load of s***.

 

I know a LOT about finance. More than most of you ever will. But I know, my "anecdotal" evidence of rising prices isn't real -- because a chart says so.

 

The fact that you guys believe I'm wrong, and prices have not risen (if I'm wrong and you are right, they haven't), shows how stupid and absolutely retarded both of you are in regard to finance...

 

Prices HAVE risen, prices ARE rising.

I wasn't criticizing your viewpoint that inflation may be higher than those stats show - I was criticizing your method of doing so. And your last line is exactly why. People here provide you with data, you respond with, more or less "all charts and numbers are made up", and then throw out a 100% unfounded conjecture.

 

That's the big glass parking lot.

 

And if you know so much about finance, how about you illustrate for us, instead of throwing out statements with no support whatsoever.

 

[bmags]

By the way, on inflation... while its very low now, that will not last. Give it a couple years, and we will be seeing big inflation numbers.

 

I've been seeing this for 3+ years now.

[NorthSideSox72]

I've been seeing this for 3+ years now.

Eh? Inflation has been pretty tame in the past three years. Or, if you mean people have been saying it will happen for 3+ years, that's still correct. No one is saying it was going to happen while still deep in the recession, they are saying it will happen during the recovery, which is only just now starting to take some baby steps.

 

[Y2HH]

You've hand-waved away data on numerous issues, not just this particular finance issue. You always prefer your personal stories and thoughts to data and analysis. That's terrible reasoning, sorry. Everyone is susceptible to all sorts of bias, conscious and subconscious, and that makes anecdotal evidence less than reliable.

 

No, I've made it clear I don't like polls in the past, and I still do not. Data is fine, if it can be backed up by some sort of real world method. In the financial world -- especially in the financial world -- I see charts, graphs and other statistical data all over the place, but it often doesn't translate to the real world, but looks great on the paper it's printed on.

[Y2HH]

Eh? Inflation has been pretty tame in the past three years. Or, if you mean people have been saying it will happen for 3+ years, that's still correct. No one is saying it was going to happen while still deep in the recession, they are saying it will happen during the recovery, which is only just now starting to take some baby steps.

 

And this is the part that makes no sense.

 

I'd love to be able to make sense of inflation data right now, but I simply cannot. What tied inflation to reality has completely become unwound and makes NO sense anymore. They've borrowed so much and printed so much paper money in the last few years that inflation should have skyrocketed, but it hasn't. Why? It makes no sense. Then I see charts showing it's at almost 0%, but across the board, in every way, prices have gone up while wages have mostly remained flat or even gone down (and forget about including the people who lost their jobs).

 

While I'd love to make sense of it all, I just cannot do so...so when I see charts showing one thing, but have experienced the exact opposite...it's impossible for me to agree with.

Edited December 20, 2010 by Y2HH

[Balta1701]

And I know you like to focus on energy, but energy is just one piece of the puzzle. The amount of cash being put into the economy, as well as other factors, all play in.

That's my point though...the cash that has been pumped into the economy can be pulled out just as easily by the Fed, and in fact, that will happen automatically as people pay back the loans in the portfolio that the Fed has accumulated, even if they don't sell any of the assets they hold to take the cash back in. Prior to the announcement of QE2, the Fed announced that it was going to continue reinvesting those funds in additional securities, so as to continue pushing cash outwards.

 

In the even that it turns around, every asset the fed purchased can be sold for some value as a method of taking that cash back off of the market.

[Balta1701]

It makes no sense.

Yes, it does. All of that money is sitting on the sidelines.

 

In the event of a financial panic, everyone is going to try to accumulate as much in stable assets that won't lose value as possible. That's the normal response to a financial panic; to horde stable assets. There is no asset in the world considered to be as stable as the U.S. dollar. Banks and investors have sucked up every dollar that has become available, and it still hasn't been enough to provoke serious inflation. At some point, the desire for stable, safe assets will finally be satiated, and some of those dollars will again start moving towards riskier investments, seeking higher returns.

[Y2HH]

Yes, it does. All of that money is sitting on the sidelines.

 

So the hundreds of billions of stimulus is unspent and sitting on the sidelines?

[Balta1701]

So the hundreds of billions of stimulus is unspent and sitting on the sidelines?

A portion of the tax cuts in it, absolutely. The exact same thing will happen with much of the upper income tax cuts in the recently passed 3rd stimulus. You've hit upon exactly why upper income tax cuts are a poor response to the current crisis.

[Y2HH]

A portion of the tax cuts in it, absolutely. The exact same thing will happen with much of the upper income tax cuts in the recently passed 3rd stimulus. You've hit upon exactly why upper income tax cuts are a poor response to the current crisis.

 

I'm not a fan of the upper income tax cuts, but I'm also not a fan of our tax system, either. I know, very unrepublican of me.

[NorthSideSox72]

And this is the part that makes no sense.

 

I'd love to be able to make sense of inflation data right now, but I simply cannot. What tied inflation to reality has completely become unwound and makes NO sense anymore. They've borrowed so much and printed so much paper money in the last few years that inflation should have skyrocketed, but it hasn't. Why? It makes no sense. Then I see charts showing it's at almost 0%, but across the board, in every way, prices have gone up while wages have mostly remained flat or even gone down (and forget about including the people who lost their jobs).

 

While I'd love to make sense of it all, I just cannot do so...so when I see charts showing one thing, but have experienced the exact opposite...it's impossible for me to agree with.

It makes perfect sense, as Balta said and for other reasons.

 

But yet again, you fail to show any data at all to back up a claim that flies in the face of all the data that is provided.

 

[Y2HH]

It makes perfect sense, as Balta said and for other reasons.

 

But yet again, you fail to show any data at all to back up a claim that flies in the face of all the data that is provided.

 

Ho hum.

 

If it were that simple, you wouldn't have people claiming that inflation is going to run wild "soon", as they've been saying for a few years now, and this is coming from financial "experts" in the field with plenty of "data".

 

But you fail to realize that, I guess.

 

So let's pretend as if none of these things occur or have been occurring, because it makes explaining it away easier...even though it's not.

 

If it were this simple as posting some simple data, the ENTIRE economic world would agree on whether inflation will rise, fall or remain exactly the same.

 

But I've read many DIFFERENT opinions on what is happening and what will happen.

Edited December 20, 2010 by Y2HH

[bmags]

Whatev, the KC Fed chief has been crying about inflation his whole career. It's probably why he his where he is.

[Y2HH]

Whatev, the KC Fed chief has been crying about inflation his whole career. It's probably why he his where he is.

 

This is my point.

 

I've heard and read about so many financial experts claiming all manner of things about inflation, why it will rise, why it should be rising, why it's not rising and we are actually headed for deflation, etc.

 

Many different opinions on it, but none seem to really "know", they're all just good at making "guesses".

 

I've just come to the conclusion that I don't know and that it makes no sense to me. But I guess it does make sense, at least I've been told that by a quite of a few of you now. So I guess I'm just too stupid to understand!

 

Either that, or I'm actually smart enough to admit that what's going on out there makes no sense and I'm not sure what to make of it.

Edited December 20, 2010 by Y2HH

[NorthSideSox72]

Ho hum.

 

If it were that simple, you wouldn't have people claiming that inflation is going to run wild "soon", as they've been saying for a few years now, and this is coming from financial "experts" in the field with plenty of "data".

 

But you fail to realize that, I guess.

 

So let's pretend as if none of these things occur or have been occurring, because it makes explaining it away easier...even though it's not.

 

If it were this simple as posting some simple data, the ENTIRE economic world would agree on whether inflation will rise, fall or remain exactly the same.

 

But I've read many DIFFERENT opinions on what is happening and what will happen.

I'll try this one more time.

 

You make claims of something happening. The data provided by other people contradict it. Your response so far: data is bulls***.

 

Now... will you show any data or explanation whatsoever to counter it? Doesn't need to be a graph or a study, even just a financial or economic description of examples or reasons. Something. Anything other than "its there, you're all blind".

 

 

[Rex Kickass]

Future House chair of Homeland Security Committee Peter King, terrorist sympathizer.

 

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-sto...ashington/full/

 

And King was at the heart of it: In the 1980s, he was a prominent fundraiser for Noraid, the Irish-American organization that raised money for the IRA and was suspected of running guns to Ulster, too. Indeed, King's rise to prominence within the Irish-American movement was predicated upon his support for the IRA at a time when New Yorkers were softer on terrorism than they are now. Noraid helped win King his seat in Congress, making him, in some respects, the terrorists' Man in Washington.

 

On his travels to Northern Ireland, King would stay with members of the IRA and spend his evenings in IRA drinking clubs, soaking up the atmosphere and, I dare say, enjoying the craic.

[Y2HH]

I'll try this one more time.

 

You make claims of something happening. The data provided by other people contradict it. Your response so far: data is bulls***.

 

Now... will you show any data or explanation whatsoever to counter it? Doesn't need to be a graph or a study, even just a financial or economic description of examples or reasons. Something. Anything other than "its there, you're all blind".

 

When it comes to finance and economics, especially in how it affects me/my family, I tend to prefer the "think for myself method" rather than reading what others claim and taking it at face value, so long as they attach a study or graph.

 

I get that this board is obsessed with fact checking, white papers, studys, graphs, and polls, and in some cases I see this as applicable, and I see it as necessary, especially when it comes to science. But economics and finance are not an exact science, especially now, in an era where 97% of the money out there isn't on paper, but on a computer. When it comes to finance and it's effects on people from the top down, I do tend to quickly dismiss things that don't match with the reality around me. Graph says inflation is 0. World around me says otherwise. Call it me being naive, or ignorant, and dismiss it if you will...doesn't affect me either way.

 

I can see what's going on out there, it's not very hard to do, either. You should try it once. I see prices rising across the board on everything from gasoline, to milk, to bread. I see people taking pay cuts for new jobs or to keep their current jobs. I see the costs employers are covering in terms of 401k's (matching), and/or healthcare/dental care falling, meaning they're covering less and having you make up for the difference. I see the value of the dollar (while on a recent rise), still worth far FAR less than it once was. I don't need nor require a book, graph, study or paper to prove this to myself...and I really don't care if you believe what I say or not.

 

I'm attaching no studies, no graphs, nor citing any books or financial white papers to prove this to you. If you believe prices are remaining the same, that inflation doesn't exist, and the stimulus money is sitting on the sidelines and they haven't pumped trillions into the economy in order to "stimulate growth", go ahead and keep believing that.

Edited December 20, 2010 by Y2HH