The Democrat Thread

[StrangeSox]

When it comes to finance and economics, especially in how it affects me/my family, I tend to prefer the "think for myself method" rather than reading what others claim and taking it at face value, so long as they attach a study or graph.

 

I get that this board is obsessed with fact checking, white papers, studys, graphs, and polls, and in some cases I see this as applicable, and I see it as necessary. But when it comes to finance and it's effects on people from the top down, I do tend to quickly dismiss things that don't match with the reality around me. Graph says inflation is 0. World around me says otherwise.

 

You do realize that that is really bad reasoning, right? That individuals are susceptible to all sorts of unintentional biases, and that humans are known for having very high rates of false positives for pattern recognition?

[Y2HH]

You do realize that that is really bad reasoning, right? That individuals are susceptible to all sorts of unintentional biases, and that humans are known for having very high rates of false positives for pattern recognition?

 

I'm not saying I'm right and you, anyone else here, or that study is wrong. This is merely my observation and how it's affected me, and the people around me. In my experiences that graph is bulls***. However, you may find the exact opposite.

 

This is why some economists are saying inflation is on the rise, others claim it's steady, and others even say deflation is coming. If it were as simple as looking at a graph, they'd all come to the same conclusion, but they aren't.

Edited December 20, 2010 by Y2HH

[StrangeSox]

I'm not saying I'm right and you, anyone else here, or that study is wrong. This is merely my observation and how it's affected me, and the people around me. In my experiences that graph is bulls***. However, you may find the exact opposite.

 

Well, you're making pretty declarative statements like "prices ARE rising" and calling me and NSS idiots and retards. That sounds like you're saying we're wrong, and this sounds like a backpedal.

 

This is why some economists are saying inflation is on the rise, others claim it's steady, and others even say deflation is coming. If it were as simple as looking at a graph, they'd all come to the same conclusion, but they aren't.

 

But they don't rely on anecdotes and gut feelings or common sense. Because all of those things are extremely vulnerable to cognitive bias.

 

These graphs are based on national data and trends, on large sample sizes. Your personal experiences are based on a relatively limited number of data points in a very limited geographical area. So, yeah, your personal experience may or may not reflect national data, but that's not a reason to doubt national data.

[Balta1701]

I can see what's going on out there, it's not very hard to do, either. You should try it once. I see prices rising across the board on everything from gasoline, to milk, to bread. I see people taking pay cuts for new jobs or to keep their current jobs. I see the costs employers are covering in terms of 401k's (matching), and/or healthcare/dental care falling, meaning they're covering less and having you make up for the difference. I see the value of the dollar (while on a recent rise), still worth far FAR less than it once was. I don't need nor require a book, graph, study or paper to prove this to myself...and I really don't care if you believe what I say or not.

Let me have some fun with anecdotes. I track my grocery expenses very closely. In 2008, I hit about the end of a 2 year runup of milk prices: CA ran a multi-buy deal, where you buy 2 and you get a better price. On average, I was paying nearly $5.

 

By the end of 2008, that amount had been cut more than in half.

 

In 2009, it went up slightly, but no where near the amount that it was.

 

Strikingly, this is amazingly similar to the "including volatile commodities" part of that graph; including food and fuel costs. A big spike followed by a huge decline.

 

Now, I don't think that we were suffering from the worst deflation in history based on my milk prices, and I don't think that we suffered from the worst inflation in history based on my milk prices. But I wrote this just to illustrate...what your anecdotes tell you is different from what other people's anecdotes tell them.

[Balta1701]

Future House chair of Homeland Security Committee Peter King, terrorist sympathizer.

 

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-sto...ashington/full/

In case you didn't know, he's also going to hold hearings which I'm sure will bring honor and dignity onto himself and onto the house next year, as a committee chairman. Seemingly at the top of his list is holding hearings on the "Radicalization of the Muslim community in the U.S."

[Y2HH]

Let me have some fun with anecdotes. I track my grocery expenses very closely. In 2008, I hit about the end of a 2 year runup of milk prices: CA ran a multi-buy deal, where you buy 2 and you get a better price. On average, I was paying nearly $5.

 

By the end of 2008, that amount had been cut more than in half.

 

In 2009, it went up slightly, but no where near the amount that it was.

 

Strikingly, this is amazingly similar to the "including volatile commodities" part of that graph; including food and fuel costs. A big spike followed by a huge decline.

 

Now, I don't think that we were suffering from the worst deflation in history based on my milk prices, and I don't think that we suffered from the worst inflation in history based on my milk prices. But I wrote this just to illustrate...what your anecdotes tell you is different from what other people's anecdotes tell them.

 

But this is kind of my point when it comes to finance/economics.

 

It affects you differently, regardless of some national study, just as it affects everyone differently. If I were buying all my goods and services on a nationalized "average price", maybe then the graph would mean something to me, but I'm not. I'm buying where I live, around where I live, and where I live prices are up, across the board, for everything I do.

 

I simply cannot apply that graph to MY life, nor my area, because my experience isn't matching up with it.

[Y2HH]

Well, you're making pretty declarative statements like "prices ARE rising" and calling me and NSS idiots and retards. That sounds like you're saying we're wrong, and this sounds like a backpedal.

 

Allow me to amend my statement.

 

Prices around me ARE rising.

 

I'm happy you live in a far away land where everything is now cheaper, which means you have more free cash to spend, since you're saving it on everything else.

 

Oh, and I do apologize for calling you a retard and an idiot, or anyone else. I wish I hadn't. It's why I stopped posting here last time, and it's creeping back...I'll be more careful. I love these sorts of discussions and disagreements, but sometimes they rile me up.

Edited December 20, 2010 by Y2HH

[bmags]

prices around me are falling rapidly, 30% off, 40% off, it's crazy. I can't account for it, but i don't think it's good for the economy.

[NorthSideSox72]

But this is kind of my point when it comes to finance/economics.

 

It affects you differently, regardless of some national study, just as it affects everyone differently. If I were buying all my goods and services on a nationalized "average price", maybe then the graph would mean something to me, but I'm not. I'm buying where I live, around where I live, and where I live prices are up, across the board, for everything I do.

 

I simply cannot apply that graph to MY life, nor my area, because my experience isn't matching up with it.

So really, all you are saying is, inflation for Y2HH appears to be going up, in his/her experience.

[StrangeSox]

prices around me are falling rapidly, 30% off, 40% off, it's crazy. I can't account for it, but i don't think it's good for the economy.

[Y2HH]

So really, all you are saying is, inflation for Y2HH appears to be going up, in his/her experience.

 

That's been my personal experience, so it's the only experience I can draw upon, regardless of what some graph shows should be happening.

[Balta1701]

That's been my personal experience, so it's the only experience I can draw upon, regardless of what some graph shows should be happening.

Which is why one might take a larger survey. ANd perhaps graph the data.

[Y2HH]

Which is why one might take a larger survey. ANd perhaps graph the data.

 

Good point, I'll concede that.

[kapkomet]

Interesting.

 

Kaperbole's posts are like modern art made from material from the recycle bin. Yeah its garbage, but there's a certain artistic quality to them that's almost hypnotic.

 

 

LMAO. I love it.

 

[BigSqwert]

Good God. What is up with this headline at Huffington?

 

Obama On Verge Of Major Victory As Missile Defense Treaty Gains GOP Support

 

Getting something like that isn't a major victory. That's one of the basics that you automatically get signed no matter who the President is. I don't care if the opposition party is being big dicks about it but I don't consider this a "major victory".

 

This reminds me of that old Chris Rock bit where he talks about people who say s*** like "I take care of my kids". No s***. You're supposed to take care of your kids. You want a cookie?

[Y2HH]

Good God. What is up with this headline at Huffington?

 

 

 

Getting something like that isn't a major victory. That's one of the basics that you automatically get signed no matter who the President is. I don't care if the opposition party is being big dicks about it but I don't consider this a "major victory".

 

This reminds me of that old Chris Rock bit where he talks about people who say s*** like "I take care of my kids". No s***. You're supposed to take care of your kids. You want a cookie?

 

Well, it's a major victory for the people...but for one party or the other, I agree...you get that done regardless of politics.

[StrangeSox]

For the Tea Party Express, old habits die hard. TPE's PAC, Our Country Deserves Better, continued through the election cycle with its track record of raising money in support of grass-roots tea party candidates and then funneling those donations to the Republican consulting firm that founded it, recent filings show.

 

In a month-long period surrounding the midterm elections, a whopping 73 percent of funds raised -- totaling $599,377 -- was paid out to Russo Marsh and Associates, the Sacramento-based GOP political consulting firm that essentially founded the PAC in 2008, for miscellaneous costs including travel, consulting fees and media buys.

linky

[Rex Kickass]

Good God. What is up with this headline at Huffington?

 

 

 

Getting something like that isn't a major victory. That's one of the basics that you automatically get signed no matter who the President is. I don't care if the opposition party is being big dicks about it but I don't consider this a "major victory".

 

This reminds me of that old Chris Rock bit where he talks about people who say s*** like "I take care of my kids". No s***. You're supposed to take care of your kids. You want a cookie?

 

Actually, the acheivement of the Treaty was a major victory for the Obama administration in and of itself. Its ratification is the completion of that victory.

[HuskyCaucasian]

what does this mean?

@joshtpm - was #2010shellacking obama's secret plan to make GOP pass his whole legislative agenda? #chess #12stepsahead #dreamon

[Balta1701]

what does this mean?

@joshtpm - was #2010shellacking obama's secret plan to make GOP pass his whole legislative agenda? #chess #12stepsahead #dreamon

That they were "Shellacked" in the midterm elections, and suddenly that shook the Senate loose to start passing everything they needed passed.

[bmags]

what does this mean?

@joshtpm - was #2010shellacking obama's secret plan to make GOP pass his whole legislative agenda? #chess #12stepsahead #dreamon

 

it's making fun of how people always credit obama with playing a "long game"

[HuskyCaucasian]

That they were "Shellacked" in the midterm elections, and suddenly that shook the Senate loose to start passing everything they needed passed.

ah, that makes sense

[Balta1701]

By a 67-28 vote, the Senate has invoked Cloture to end debate on the new START treaty. A vote will likely be held in the next couple days.

[kapkomet]

It's called buying off votes.

[StrangeSox]

It's called buying off votes.

 

Yeah, it's sad that Republicans feel the need to sell their votes to support what should have been easily passed months ago.