The Democrat Thread

[Y2HH]

You say that like I didn't download the data. P/E ratios crossed 30 in early 1997.

 

That chart shows that they didn't cross 20 until about 98. There are always companies with high P/E ratios, but on average, they were still hovering around 20 in 97/98, it was then they exploded.

Edited April 9, 2013 by Y2HH

[Balta1701]

That chart shows that they didn't cross 20 until about 98.

(I coudln't read the scale that easily myself so I downloaded the spreadsheet).

 

You can clearly see in the data that it starts taking off in 1995 and doesn't look back. By1997 it was in "unusual" territory and we went from there.

 

The average P/E ratio through 1996 and the first half of 1997 was 33.

[Y2HH]

(I coudln't read the scale that easily myself so I downloaded the spreadsheet).

 

You can clearly see in the data that it starts taking off in 1995 and doesn't look back. By1997 it was in "unusual" territory and we went from there.

 

Yea, but that's the point, it wasn't until around 97 that things were no longer looking like a standard cycle, and they absolutely skyrocketed on speculation.

 

The market, throughout time, usually hovers around 10-25 in P/E, some short term spikes here and there, but nothing like what occurred between 98 and 2000.

 

Then again, we have a mini .com bubble happening right now, with the likes of Facebook (1,785) Amazon (was about 2000 until they went negative in the recent quarter) and LinkedIn (900) P/E ratios.

[lostfan]

Great deal for the banks, though. Borrow money for free and then charge to loan it back out.

 

Too bad we couldn't use some of that free money for nice things like infrastructure and public works.

There's literally no better time to take on a project like that. While people are more or less paying you to hold their money.

[Balta1701]

There's literally no better time to take on a project like that. While people are more or less paying you to hold their money.

Which is why we're doing the exact opposite (Sequester yeah!)

[lostfan]

Yea, but that's the point, it wasn't until around 97 that things were no longer looking like a standard cycle, and they absolutely skyrocketed on speculation.

 

The market, throughout time, usually hovers around 10-25 in P/E, some short term spikes here and there, but nothing like what occurred between 98 and 2000.

 

Then again, we have a mini .com bubble happening right now, with the likes of Facebook (1,785) Amazon (was about 2000 until they went negative in the recent quarter) and LinkedIn (900) P/E ratios.

Waiting for Amazon to correct so I can hold some of those shares. No way do I buy at those prices they have right now. But Amazon the company clearly isn't going anywhere. They have debt but it's not toxic debt, it's from investments and whatnot.

[StrangeSox]

There's literally no better time to take on a project like that. While people are more or less paying you to hold their money.

 

 

Which is why we're doing the exact opposite (Sequester yeah!)

 

The world is run by some incredibly dumb people.

[lostfan]

Which is why we're doing the exact opposite (Sequester yeah!)

This is an article of faith that's kind of cemented in the public consciousness thanks to that disastrous 2010 wave election even though it's completely false... federal deficit size = high unemployment

 

...therefore we fight unemployment by taking away hundreds of thousands of jobs at a time. Nobody can explain how, or why, this works though, because they haven't thought it through. We wonder what went wrong with GDP growth 2 quarters ago. Um, pretty self-evident.

[lostfan]

And it's not like we have recent, updated real-world examples to show that either doesn't work or will lead to another recession. Oh wait.

 

But yeah, more comparisons to Greece plz kthx

[StrangeSox]

This is an article of faith that's kind of cemented in the public consciousness thanks to that disastrous 2010 wave election even though it's completely false... federal deficit size = high unemployment

 

Also that federal budgets of monetary sovereigns who print the world's reserve currency are analogous to "household" budgets.

 

I'd place plenty of blame on many Democrats and the media as well. Despite most Americans caring about things other than "Deficits!," it's all they talk about, all the focus on. So that means people come to think it's a legitimate problem that actually needs to be addressed right now, and it sucks all the oxygen out of the room for anything else. How long has Obama been on his inexplicably stupid "Grand Bargain" kick now? Since the 'summer of recovery'?

 

...therefore we fight unemployment by taking away hundreds of thousands of jobs at a time. Nobody can explain how, or why, this works though, because they haven't thought it through. We wonder what went wrong with GDP growth 2 quarters ago. Um, pretty self-evident.

 

Well, several years back it was "Confidence!" and "Uncertainty!" so now those same people are insisting that we govern through a never-ending series of crises.

[Y2HH]

Waiting for Amazon to correct so I can hold some of those shares. No way do I buy at those prices they have right now. But Amazon the company clearly isn't going anywhere. They have debt but it's not toxic debt, it's from investments and whatnot.

 

Amazon's problem isn't debt, it's their business model. Due to the fact that they're online only, they have massive competition, and a constant drive to the bottom in price, they have a profit margin of less than 1%. I don't need to explain how and why that's not a very good thing. This is why Amazon is trying to use this time to create other businesses that can drive profits for them, because their retail branch will never get high margins, as retail never does.

[bigruss]

Amazon's problem isn't debt, it's their business model. Due to the fact that they're online only, they have massive competition, and a constant drive to the bottom in price, they have a profit margin of less than 1%. I don't need to explain how and why that's not a very good thing. This is why Amazon is trying to use this time to create other businesses that can drive profits for them, because their retail branch will never get high margins, as retail never does.

Right, it's why they have all their cloud applications (webhosting, music, video, etc).

 

They also are selecting retail areas that DO have higher margins and attacking them aggressively, I know they entered my company's MRO market about 9 months ago with amazonsupply.com .

[Jake]

How do you the think the margins are in ebooks? Do they do any of their own publishing? Seems like only a matter of time before they would.

 

I assume the Kindle has nice margins as well, but that will have constant and cutthroat competition as well -- especially given it doesn't have a strong argument as better product.

 

 

[Balta1701]

How do you the think the margins are in ebooks? Do they do any of their own publishing? Seems like only a matter of time before they would.

 

I assume the Kindle has nice margins as well, but that will have constant and cutthroat competition as well -- especially given it doesn't have a strong argument as better product.

Yes, they do some publsihing.

[bigruss]

How do you the think the margins are in ebooks? Do they do any of their own publishing? Seems like only a matter of time before they would.

 

I assume the Kindle has nice margins as well, but that will have constant and cutthroat competition as well -- especially given it doesn't have a strong argument as better product.

Almost anything digitally delivered is going to have good margins, it's typically the physical hardware that makes little money to actually losing money in some cases.

 

The one thing Im not sure about is ebooks, while you would assume they are making a killing off of them, I haven't seen a drastic decrease in price for the actual ebook downloads. This either means the publisher is charging the same/more, or Amazon is keeping the extra profits. Even a year ago in college, the books I bought straight from the publisher that were ebook rentals, were just as much a typical text book (around $100).

[Balta1701]

Almost anything digitally delivered is going to have good margins, it's typically the physical hardware that makes little money to actually losing money in some cases.

 

The one thing Im not sure about is ebooks, while you would assume they are making a killing off of them, I haven't seen a drastic decrease in price for the actual ebook downloads. This either means the publisher is charging the same/more, or Amazon is keeping the extra profits. Even a year ago in college, the books I bought straight from the publisher that were ebook rentals, were just as much a typical text book (around $100).

Or the ebook distributors are colluding to keep prices high.

[bigruss]

Or the ebook distributors are colluding to keep prices high.

That's what I figured. Pretty s***ty.

[StrangeSox]

election nights are a lot more stressful when you are related to the candidate.

[bmags]

election nights are a lot more stressful when you are related to the candidate.

 

You are related to mongo mc michael?

[StrangeSox]

You are related to mongo mc michael?

No, but i did meet him at a fundraiser and my parents almost won a signed Jersey and dinner with him. I think i have video of his incoherent speech i could post later.

 

My father-in-law was up for election. Looks like he is going to win comfortably.

[Jake]

No, but i did meet him at a fundraiser and my parents almost won a signed Jersey and dinner with him. I think i have video of his incoherent speech i could post later.

 

My father-in-law was up for election. Looks like he is going to win comfortably.

 

Close friend of my family lost an election for school board last night. 5 people ran for 4 spots. He finished 5th of course...I was a little surprised and a little not surprised. He had name recognition as one of the bigger lawyers in town, but clearly that may have actually hurt more than helped in this case. He's a character, lol

[StrangeSox]

This was my fil's full-time job, so a loss would have put him in a difficult place. Probably have to un-retire from the trades and go back to some tough physical labor for several more years.

[Jake]

Horrific news in Texas today, re: stabbing.

 

It shocks me to see conservatives on my facebook feed politicizing this event, with mocking "we need knife control" stuff. Don't they realize that this guy's lack of a gun saved MANY lives? Nobody died today from that attack, though certainly lives were changed for the worse. Do you think he could have managed to spare the lives of these people if he was shooting them point blank with guns instead of stabbing with a knife? Would he have been subdued by students as soon, or would they have had to wait for a reload (after who knows how many shots)?

 

They're undermining their own point.

[lostfan]

Tried making the same point about the guy who stabbed all those kids in China on the same day of the Sandy Hook tragedy. None of those kids died and all of them made full recovery. They'll hear what they want to hear though. If I never hear another stupid gun rant on Facebook it'll be too soon. You can't talk to these people - "I know banning guns is unconstitutional, but we need to expand background checks and look into straw purchase reform because the laws aren't working and easy to circumvent" reads to them as "I want Obama to confiscate everyone's guns, and use those guns to force people to allow atheists to teach kids how to have gay sex in public schools, and teach girls how to perform do-it-yourself abortions at home."

[Balta1701]

From the category of "How could a human seriously do this"...man arrested in Missouri for refusing to leave his husband's bedside in the hospital, barred from visitation.