The Republican Thread

[Balta1701]

Ron Paul wins CPAC strawpoll. Crowd apparently booed the result when it was announced. Romney second, Palin distant third.

NRO

 

Here's another NRO comment on Paul's results there.

There may have been some boos, but Paul was by far one of the more popular speakers at CPAC this year. “End the Fed!” was one of most-heard chants and his “Campaign for Liberty” group was everywhere. Heck, a lot of the time, it seemed like they, not the American Conservative Union, was CPAC’s host. Even Ann Coulter, who drew a huge crowd herself, felt compelled to give a shout out to Paul-mania, saying she agreed with everything he stands for outside of foreign policy — a statement met with cheers.

[kapkomet]

Democrats know so much better who to elect. Oh wait a minute, that only counts for "moderate Republicans".

 

[Balta1701]

Democrats know so much better who to elect. Oh wait a minute, that only counts for "moderate Republicans".

So, which one should we consider you to be defending here, sarah palin or ron paul?

[southsider2k5]

So, which one should we consider you to be defending here, sarah palin or ron paul?

 

Do you honestly believe that Ron Paul or Sarah Palin will be on the 2012 ballot? I will bet you your entire first year's salary that doesn't happen.

[Balta1701]

Do you honestly believe that Ron Paul or Sarah Palin will be on the 2012 ballot? I will bet you your entire first year's salary that doesn't happen.

I'm 50/50 on Palin. If you put the primary out there right now, this moment, and the competitors were the suspects we have right now (Palin, Romney, Huckabee, Paul, Pawlenty, perhaps Jindal, etc.) then I think she'd win it and do so with relative ease. I think there needs to be either a new name in that field or a fundamental shift in the nation's politics before I'd say that changes.

 

Do you disagree? If so, who would you say would win that case; a Repub. primary held right now?

[NorthSideSox72]

I'm 50/50 on Palin. If you put the primary out there right now, this moment, and the competitors were the suspects we have right now (Palin, Romney, Huckabee, Paul, Pawlenty, perhaps Jindal, etc.) then I think she'd win it and do so with relative ease. I think there needs to be either a new name in that field or a fundamental shift in the nation's politics before I'd say that changes.

 

Do you disagree? If so, who would you say would win that case; a Repub. primary held right now?

Palin's DISapproval ratings are currently over 70%, and over 50% IN HER OWN PARTY. Those are death sentence numbers. NO way she wins the nomination. I think any of Romney, Huckabee, Pawlenty, Jindal or even Gingrich have a better shot than her.

 

[southsider2k5]

I'm 50/50 on Palin. If you put the primary out there right now, this moment, and the competitors were the suspects we have right now (Palin, Romney, Huckabee, Paul, Pawlenty, perhaps Jindal, etc.) then I think she'd win it and do so with relative ease. I think there needs to be either a new name in that field or a fundamental shift in the nation's politics before I'd say that changes.

 

Do you disagree? If so, who would you say would win that case; a Repub. primary held right now?

 

That's just it. It doesn't matter who would win today. The leader has not emerged yet. The leaders right now all have huge flaws, just like the Dems did four years ago at this time. Those thing will pull them down, and someone new will emerge.

 

Like I said, I will put it in print here today, there is zero chance Sarah Palin or Ron Paul is the Republican nominee in 2012. I can't believe that you actually think it is possible, unless you have been drinking waaaaayyy to much of your own parties flavor-aid.

[Balta1701]

Like I said, I will put it in print here today, there is zero chance Sarah Palin or Ron Paul is the Republican nominee in 2012. I can't believe that you actually think it is possible, unless you have been drinking waaaaayyy to much of your own parties flavor-aid.

Hell, I'm scared that we go into the 2012 race with still 11% unemployment because we never fixed the financial system or the housing market or health care or passed an energy bill and the stimulus was too small and not only is she your nominee, she winds up with a dominant win because "it's the economy, stupid". Even under the Obama administration's optimistic scenario we're still looking at 8%+ unemployment then.

[southsider2k5]

Hell, I'm scared that we go into the 2012 race with still 11% unemployment because we never fixed the financial system or the housing market or health care or passed an energy bill and the stimulus was too small and not only is she your nominee, she winds up with a dominant win because "it's the economy, stupid". Even under the Obama administration's optimistic scenario we're still looking at 8%+ unemployment then.

 

You really are that brainwashed, wow.

[Balta1701]

Palin's DISapproval ratings are currently over 70%, and over 50% IN HER OWN PARTY. Those are death sentence numbers. NO way she wins the nomination. I think any of Romney, Huckabee, Pawlenty, Jindal or even Gingrich have a better shot than her.

Romney is never going to be trusted by that party, probably with good reason. He's too slick, too wealthy, and he's not a real Christian.

 

Huckabee...IMO, Palin beats him solely because they have the same base, and she's stronger with that base than he is.

 

Pawlenty is sort of in the Romney mold except with less money to spend but no crazy religious background.

 

I could see someone like say, Scott Brown, coming up as a legit outside challenger, but I think she easily winds up beating any of those.

 

And anyway, just because I have to prove you wrong with data, here's a recent Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll of approval ratings of all the Republican candidates. Amongst Republicans, Palin shows a 70% approval rating, best of any of the candidates.

[NorthSideSox72]

Romney is never going to be trusted by that party, probably with good reason. He's too slick, too wealthy, and he's not a real Christian.

 

Huckabee...IMO, Palin beats him solely because they have the same base, and she's stronger with that base than he is.

 

Pawlenty is sort of in the Romney mold except with less money to spend but no crazy religious background.

 

I could see someone like say, Scott Brown, coming up as a legit outside challenger, but I think she easily winds up beating any of those.

 

And anyway, just because I have to prove you wrong with data, here's a recent Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll of approval ratings of all the Republican candidates. Amongst Republicans, Palin shows a 70% approval rating, best of any of the candidates.

The polls taken by agencies not obviously aligned with one party have shown quite the opposite.

 

[southsider2k5]

Romney is never going to be trusted by that party, probably with good reason. He's too slick, too wealthy, and he's not a real Christian.

 

Huckabee...IMO, Palin beats him solely because they have the same base, and she's stronger with that base than he is.

 

Pawlenty is sort of in the Romney mold except with less money to spend but no crazy religious background.

 

I could see someone like say, Scott Brown, coming up as a legit outside challenger, but I think she easily winds up beating any of those.

 

And anyway, just because I have to prove you wrong with data, here's a recent Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll of approval ratings of all the Republican candidates. Amongst Republicans, Palin shows a 70% approval rating, best of any of the candidates.

 

That poll is three months old, and from Fox, which is funny that when they agree with something, you have no problem pulling that out.

 

Just last week the WaPost found over 50% of Republicans felt she was unqualified to be President.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/...s_slipping.html

 

I know the left wing keeps pushing the Palin crap because short of actually being a decent President, the best thing that could happen to the Obama re-election campaign is Sarah Palin being on the GOP ticket.

[Balta1701]

So let's see, the other day I cited Gallup, R2K, Rasmussen, and CNN for polling data and my polling data was attacked. This time I go with Fox news, and my polling data is attacked. And then you say that I only post polling data that agrees with me. Of course I do. So do you.

[southsider2k5]

So let's see, the other day I cited Gallup, R2K, Rasmussen, and CNN for polling data and my polling data was attacked. This time I go with Fox news, and my polling data is attacked. And then you say that I only post polling data that agrees with me. Of course I do. So do you.

 

It was more attacked because you treat Fox News like the plague, but boy three months ago they showed Sarah Palin with an approval rating, so now they have to be right!!!!

 

It's an old act.

 

Sarah Palin is not going to be the nominee, I will bet you pretty much anything on that.

[Balta1701]

Sarah Palin is not going to be the nominee, I will bet you pretty much anything on that.

What kind of odds are you willing to give?

[NorthSideSox72]

That poll is three months old, and from Fox, which is funny that when they agree with something, you have no problem pulling that out.

 

Just last week the WaPost found over 50% of Republicans felt she was unqualified to be President.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/...s_slipping.html

 

I know the left wing keeps pushing the Palin crap because short of actually being a decent President, the best thing that could happen to the Obama re-election campaign is Sarah Palin being on the GOP ticket.

This is what I was talking about - all the recent polling by any real polling organization indicates that Palin is a non-starter for the GOP Prez nomination.

 

[southsider2k5]

What kind of odds are you willing to give?

 

Who needs odds, you are convinced, right?

[Balta1701]

Who needs odds, you are convinced, right?

Nope. I think its entirely plausible, but certain? God no.

[Rex Kickass]

Mike Huckabee on CPAC: It pretty much is just a bunch of libertarians now.

 

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/02...l.php?ref=fpblg

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Mike Huckabee on CPAC: It pretty much is just a bunch of libertarians now.

 

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/02...l.php?ref=fpblg

The GOP has made some strides lately, because of the economy mostly, but also frustration over Obama's performance, and some other factors. But none of that has changed the fact that the Republicans are fractured, and having trouble keeping the band together (which they have been very good at until recently). You have the Christian Coalition types, the libertarian/small government types, the old school moderate Republicans, and then the whole angry old white guy crowd that doesn't know who to align with (and driven mostly by talk show hosts and unfounded "facts").

 

The Tea Party seems to have started as the small government crowd, but then became the "I'm angry about Obama" crowd.

 

I think the GOP has a golden opportunity in 2010 and 2012 to make big gains - but I also think they are unlikely to rally around anything other than "Obama sucks", successfully. That will work to an extent, but it won't give them anything huge, like 1994.

 

[Cknolls]

The GOP has made some strides lately, because of the economy mostly, but also frustration over Obama's performance, and some other factors. But none of that has changed the fact that the Republicans are fractured, and having trouble keeping the band together (which they have been very good at until recently). You have the Christian Coalition types, the libertarian/small government types, the old school moderate Republicans, and then the whole angry old white guy crowd that doesn't know who to align with (and driven mostly by talk show hosts and unfounded "facts").

 

The Tea Party seems to have started as the small government crowd, but then became the "I'm angry about Obama" crowd.

 

I think the GOP has a golden opportunity in 2010 and 2012 to make big gains - but I also think they are unlikely to rally around anything other than "Obama sucks", successfully. That will work to an extent, but it won't give them anything huge, like 1994.

 

 

With unemployment at 10+% in November, The R's will gain 70 seats.

[Texsox]

I seem to recall that Hillary had some high negative numbers, that didn't stop the GOP radio network from annointing her the next candidate. If palin gets around some good campaign people she could be a factor. It's a shame her own party doesn't appreciate her.

 

And after rereading the Perry article in Texas Monthly, I could really rally around him. They could be a great ticket. Two Governors from huge states that weathered the economy better than most.

[southsider2k5]

The GOP has made some strides lately, because of the economy mostly, but also frustration over Obama's performance, and some other factors. But none of that has changed the fact that the Republicans are fractured, and having trouble keeping the band together (which they have been very good at until recently). You have the Christian Coalition types, the libertarian/small government types, the old school moderate Republicans, and then the whole angry old white guy crowd that doesn't know who to align with (and driven mostly by talk show hosts and unfounded "facts").

 

The Tea Party seems to have started as the small government crowd, but then became the "I'm angry about Obama" crowd.

 

I think the GOP has a golden opportunity in 2010 and 2012 to make big gains - but I also think they are unlikely to rally around anything other than "Obama sucks", successfully. That will work to an extent, but it won't give them anything huge, like 1994.

 

People keep talking about the fracturing of the GOP, but why isn't anyone talking about the breaking apart of the Dems? Heck, they just lost one of their most moderate voices in Washington in Evan Bayh. He was a guy who routinely fought with the left wing of his party. They can't even keep their own people in line to pass their own agenda.

 

Those divides have been in the GOP for a while, and this schism still hasn't happened.

[southsider2k5]

Nope. I think its entirely plausible, but certain? God no.

 

That's pretty much what I figured.

[NorthSideSox72]

I seem to recall that Hillary had some high negative numbers, that didn't stop the GOP radio network from annointing her the next candidate. If palin gets around some good campaign people she could be a factor. It's a shame her own party doesn't appreciate her.

 

And after rereading the Perry article in Texas Monthly, I could really rally around him. They could be a great ticket. Two Governors from huge states that weathered the economy better than most.

And in that case, Hillary had 50% disapproval ratings, not 70% - and she didn't make it. Palin is a non-starter.