MexSoxFan#1 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 (edited) QUOTE (Jake @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 10:31 PM) Why is it that every political scientist everywhere (and don't get it wrong, that's what Nate Silver is) is predicting an Obama win? Simply put, they hate the message so they try to kill the messanger. We'll finally find out tonight if the stats guys were right. My bet is that they will be. For all it's worth, professor Wang predicted the exact EV count in 2004 so that alone proves he isn't biased, he calls it as he sees it. Edited November 6, 2012 by MexSoxFan#1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 QUOTE (MexSoxFan#1 @ Nov 6, 2012 -> 09:55 AM) Simply put, they hate the message so they try to kill the messanger. We'll finally find out tonight if the stats guys were right. My bet is that they will be. For all it's worth, professor Wang predicted the exact EV count in 2004 so that alone proves he isn't biased, he calls it as he sees it. It's mainly the "gut-feeling" pundit class that is pushing back against the onslaught of stats. It's no different than the reaction of people like Joe Morgan to sabermetrics. If numbers and process can quantify it and remove the fog, then they can't talk about their horserace crap for the 12 months prior to the election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 FOX won't quit hammering how the methodology of the polls is off Like the polling firms wouldn't be aware of such basic, glaring weaknesses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Nov 6, 2012 -> 10:01 AM) It's mainly the "gut-feeling" pundit class that is pushing back against the onslaught of stats. It's no different than the reaction of people like Joe Morgan to sabermetrics. If numbers and process can quantify it and remove the fog, then they can't talk about their horserace crap for the 12 months prior to the election. Just the other day I was thinking about this and thought of the same basic comparison. Pundits hate metrics because it essentially limits their ability to predict and they cant "fudge" numbers. While more open minded people are willing to look at states as real and often predictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 9, 2012 -> 09:45 AM) I have to get this out of my way real quick.... :lolhitting :lolhitting :lolhitting Donnelly isn't going to beat Mourdock anywhere but NWI where he is from. I've dealt with the guy on many occasions, and he isn't winning over the rest of Indiana. Y'all may have noticed me being absent for a while. I wanted to say...this makes me more sad than you know. I voted for one Republican at the national level in my lifetime. I'd have voted for him again this year if I could have. I'm a Democrat, through and through. And the more I think about it, the more I am saddened by the fact that Dick Lugar will not be in the United States Senate starting in 2 months. He should be there. This country is worse for him not being there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Hi balta, Nice to see you again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr_genius Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Question: I am conducting a study and want to know which 5 special entitlements or free stuff would make you vote Republican the most. List a maximum of 5 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 QUOTE (mr_genius @ Nov 7, 2012 -> 09:30 PM) Question: I am conducting a study and want to know which 5 special entitlements or free stuff would make you vote Republican the most. List a maximum of 5 please. Study my ass. You want a top 5 list of the platform for 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr_genius Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 QUOTE (kapkomet @ Nov 7, 2012 -> 09:38 PM) Study my ass. You want a top 5 list of the platform for 2016. the 2016 platform is a work in progress. i simply want everyone's voice to be heard. the free stuff list will be tallied and the best choices we go to a committee. we will then have a team of smart math nerds determine which list of free stuff will get us the most votes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 QUOTE (mr_genius @ Nov 7, 2012 -> 09:41 PM) the 2016 platform is a work in progress. i simply want everyone's voice to be heard. the free stuff list will be tallied and the best choices we go to a committee. we will then have a team of smart math nerds determine which list of free stuff will get us the most votes. Free falling bras. Mucho sweet p...... baseball tickets cell phones - those obama phones were hotcake muthaf***as more mucho sweet p.... money money money and some mucho sweet p..... (might have to be redistributed if there's not enough to go around) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr_genius Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 (edited) QUOTE (kapkomet @ Nov 7, 2012 -> 09:44 PM) Free falling bras. Mucho sweet p...... baseball tickets cell phones - those obama phones were hotcake muthaf***as more mucho sweet p.... money money money and some mucho sweet p..... (might have to be redistributed if there's not enough to go around) good list. i'm pretty sure in reality we can't guarantee the "mucho sweet p.....", but we can make a campaign promise to do it. Edited November 8, 2012 by mr_genius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 QUOTE (mr_genius @ Nov 7, 2012 -> 10:05 PM) good list. i'm pretty sure in reality we can't guarantee the "mucho sweet p.....", but we can make a campaign promise to do it. Then blame the Dems when you can't. Its really a win-win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr_genius Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 8, 2012 -> 06:48 AM) Then blame the Dems when you can't. Its really a win-win. Obama's fault Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 QUOTE (mr_genius @ Nov 7, 2012 -> 09:30 PM) Question: I am conducting a study and want to know which 5 special entitlements or free stuff would make you vote Republican the most. List a maximum of 5 please. Free stuff 1. dead fetuses 2. married gay couples 3. mosques 4. partially burned american flags 5. nukes following giant cuts to defense spending and secret deals with Russia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrimsonWeltall Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 QUOTE (mr_genius @ Nov 8, 2012 -> 03:30 AM) Question: I am conducting a study and want to know which 5 special entitlements or free stuff would make you vote Republican the most. List a maximum of 5 please. 1) Food stamps 2) Food smushed and cut into the shape of stamps 3) Ink stamps of food 4) Postage stamps with pictures of food on them 5) Edible postage stamps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr_genius Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 (edited) I'm not sure you guys are in the demographic we are looking to give free stuff too. Remember, it's about getting 65% of a certain demographic. 70% would be gravy on the mashed potatoes. Edited November 9, 2012 by mr_genius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 (edited) QUOTE (CrimsonWeltall @ Nov 8, 2012 -> 06:43 PM) 1) Food stamps 2) Food smushed and cut into the shape of stamps 3) Ink stamps of food 4) Postage stamps with pictures of food on them 5) Edible postage stamps Rush Limbaugh says it's impossible to beat Santa Claus. How bout the Republicans of which I am one, coming up with a candidate that women actually tolerate, blacks actually tolerate and Hispanics actually tolerate? A candidate that doesn't make them puke. Didn't Obama win HUGE in all 3 categories? But old white rich men like Romney and the Republican candidates. Only problem here is the old white rich men own a lot of businesses and this gives them an excuse to continue laying people off, outsourcing and all that ridiculous stuff. Edited November 9, 2012 by greg775 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EvilMonkey Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 8, 2012 -> 09:22 PM) Rush Limbaugh says it's impossible to beat Santa Claus. How bout the Republicans of which I am one, coming up with a candidate that women actually tolerate, blacks actually tolerate and Hispanics actually tolerate? A candidate that doesn't make them puke. Didn't Obama win HUGE in all 3 categories? But old white rich men like Romney and the Republican candidates. Only problem here is the old white rich men own a lot of businesses and this gives them an excuse to continue laying people off, outsourcing and all that ridiculous stuff. Let's see, which of those groups do Democrats give lots of free stuff to....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSqwert Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 QUOTE (Alpha Dog @ Nov 8, 2012 -> 08:19 PM) Let's see, which of those groups do Democrats give lots of free stuff to....... Like freedom to marry who they love, freedom to choose what to do with their own bodies, and freedom to go see a doctor without having to declare bankruptcy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EvilMonkey Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Nov 8, 2012 -> 10:24 PM) Like freedom to marry who they love, freedom to choose what to do with their own bodies, and freedom to go see a doctor without having to declare bankruptcy? I was thinking more like free birth control, free abortions, free citizenship, free phones but you can go that way since that is about the limit of your vision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 QUOTE (Alpha Dog @ Nov 8, 2012 -> 11:19 PM) Let's see, which of those groups do Democrats give lots of free stuff to....... With the unemployment rate being so high in the 18-29 age group that ---ch-slapped both McCain and Romney in two consecutive elections, how can you explain Obama's appeal to those aforementioned young people? Just slick marketing? Palin and Ryan were roughly the same age as Obama or younger, why weren't they attractive enough to sway votes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 QUOTE (Alpha Dog @ Nov 8, 2012 -> 10:19 PM) Let's see, which of those groups do Democrats give lots of free stuff to....... Lol, minorities are all lazy moochers! That's why they won't vote for republicans! I sincerely hope that's the message conservatives take away from this election because it'll make the next one that much easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 QUOTE (Alpha Dog @ Nov 8, 2012 -> 10:25 PM) I was thinking more like free birth control, free abortions, free citizenship, free phones but you can go that way since that is about the limit of your vision. Republicans lost the greedy slut vote, why oh why can't those whores see the wisdom of the Republican party?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenksismyhero Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 9, 2012 -> 01:00 AM) With the unemployment rate being so high in the 18-29 age group that ---ch-slapped both McCain and Romney in two consecutive elections, how can you explain Obama's appeal to those aforementioned young people? Just slick marketing? Palin and Ryan were roughly the same age as Obama or younger, why weren't they attractive enough to sway votes? Because for people looking for something (jobs, help with debt, etc) it's an easier sell to say "we should be helping you!" than "government needs to stop being so involved in our lives." The GOP message is geared more towards the "haves" than the "have nots." And that's a major problem in the next election, although hopefully the economy will be better and their will be more "haves." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 This viewpoint is why people across the country rejected the GOP. I hope they fully embrace the Randianism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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