The Republican Thread

[Y2HH]

Ok. Lotsa issues to deal with here. First, use centimeters, it's so much nicer.

 

Anyway, you're correct in several important ways, but fault systems like New Madrid are so complex its hard to say exactly what things matter.

 

The San Andreas fault moves along at about 3-4 centimeters per year. It's a very well defined system along a plate boundary. Generally, if you do the same math you do here and say "how long does it take about 5 meters to build up", you get an answer of about 100 years, which would give you a 100 year recurrence interval. (By the way, 1906...107 years ago, and 1857 was the last quake on the middle section of the San Andreas just north of L.A.).

 

Unfortunately, the Earth never works this way, even when it seems to be simple. Give you a few examples. The Southern Section of the San Andreas, down by San Diego, hasn't broken in over 300 years. Honestly, it doesn't make sense why it hasn't. There should have been enough motion on that section to produce several large earthquakes. A good rule of thumb in geology, I've found, is that once you calculate a recurrence interval for a fault...you'll find that the fault is overdue by a factor of 4.

 

The other complicated thing that happens...not all the motion between the 2 plates happens on the San Andreas. About 20% of the motion winds up absorbed by North America. It's created a series of faults around L.A. and out through the Mojave desert, that are on their own capable of producing large earthquakes. 2 of them happened in the 1990's, Landers and Hector mine, both magnitude ~7 earthquakes.

 

So, when things are moving, they don't necessarily move simply. You can build up stress on many different faults close in next to each other, and that motion can be released in complicated patterns that are impossible to predict.

 

So, to New Madrid. Its not at a plate boundary, so right away we have a problem, because that means the motion is much harder to figure out. It's probably being driven by the rocks nearby relaxing after the last ice sheet's weight was removed (think of it like a pillow on your couch popping back up after you stand up). Everything's trying to move upwards, but some parts have to move upwards more than others. In a couch cushion that's easy, in real rocks, it's hard, because rocks are hard to break.

 

If we do that same math, 1 cm a year, gives a recurrence interval of 500 years for a 5 meter displacement. That actually doesn't work that badly, there's good evidence for earthquakes at abour 1450, 900, and 300 a.d. (give or take 50-100 years on the dates). Prior to that though, we lose some of the record, but everyone seems to find a big swarm at around 2350 b.c.

 

But think about this...if the Southern San Andreas is 3x overdue, then doesn't that mean there would need to be 2-3 quakes, at some point, to make up the difference?

 

These systems are messy. It's been 200 years since the last swarm. It could be another day, it could be another 200 years. The best way to talk about these winds up being in terms of probability. The numbers I see say, for example, the southern San Andreas ought to go within 50 years, so there's about a 2% chance per year of it being the year. New Madrid ought to go within the next 500 years, so maybe there's a 0.1-0.5% chance of it going per year, if things work that way. That means it's 1/4-1/20 as likely to go as the southern san andreas. That's still a fairly substantial risk...and it's hard to do that math better.

 

Since we don't have a complete record of every quake, there could have been a 2000 year gap in there that we haven't been able to measure. Or, movement could be particularly fast right now because of how the surface is adjusting to the ice removal.

 

In terms of the insurance though, the area itself is much worse than L.A. The area around New Madrid is flat and old crust. Remember how that small East Coast earthquake was felt in canada, 1000's of km away? Old, slow crust translates energy through it much easier than broken up materials like L.A. So, a New Madrid quake will cause damage over a much larger area.

 

Furthermore, the material around those sites (St. Louis, Memphis) is all river sediments. River sediments are terribly weak under earthquake stresses (they're the materials that undergo liquefaction). They shift all over the place and lose their strength. L.A. has other problems, but Structure collapse will be a much more major issue if the New Madrid area goes. Roads, buildings, infrastructure will take a major hit over a very wide area. That's in addition to the fact that L.A. has simply built their buildings to a higher standard than New Madrid.

 

So yeah, there's still a substantial earthquake risk in the heart of this country. It's probably comparable to the risk facing Seattle or Portland. L.A. is more likely, Seattle/Portland would be more powerful at the source but weaker once it hit the cities, New Madrid would be particularly devastating to structures because of what the area is made of.

 

Thank you for this, I find this fascinating.

 

Let me ask you a question...and bare with me, I've been drinking a little, so these might be rapid fire questions. Being that the New Madrid, albeit very stable at the moment, has produced very huge quakes in the past and suddenly went dormant (didn't it reverse the course of the Mississippi it hit so hard at one point?), why don't we take extra precautions on our Nuclear Power Plants to defend them from such a recurrence of a quake? It's my understanding, that in comparison to an equal Richter scale quake that once hit the Candlestick Park area of California (I'd like to say San Andreas?), if the same sized quake hit the New Madrid, wouldn't it's area of affect be absolutely massive in comparison? As I understand it, the Nuclear Power Plants in our area would actually be hit and possibly go into meltdown because of a similar quake. Why are scientists THAT convinced it won't happen? Is it because of the lack of rock formations at New Madrid that keep it contained? Or have I simply been massively misinformed on this?

[Balta1701]

Thank you for this, I find this fascinating.

 

Let me ask you a question...and bare with me, I've been drinking a little, so these might be rapid fire questions. Being that the New Madrid, albeit very stable at the moment, has produced very huge quakes in the past and suddenly went dormant (didn't it reverse the course of the Mississippi it hit so hard at one point?), why don't we take extra precautions on our Nuclear Power Plants to defend them from such a recurrence of a quake? It's my understanding, that in comparison to an equal Richter scale quake that once hit the Candlestick Park area of California (I'd like to say San Andreas?), if the same sized quake hit the New Madrid, wouldn't it's area of affect be absolutely massive in comparison? As I understand it, the Nuclear Power Plants in our area would actually be hit and possibly go into meltdown because of a similar quake. Why are scientists THAT convinced it won't happen? Is it because of the lack of rock formations at New Madrid that keep it contained? Or have I simply been massively misinformed on this?

The one that hit the 1989 world series was actually on one of the faults close to the San Andreas, like the Hector Mine and Landers ones I referred to earlier. The stresses that are absorbed by the rocks surrounding the San Andreas have built the hills/coast ranges in California, with various faults running through them. One of those faults broke in 1989, producing a magnitude ~7 earthquake. The San Andreas in that area breaking again would be a repeat of 1906, a magnitude 8 event that would do an enormous amount of damage.

 

In terms of New Madrid itself, when you go to the map, there's actually a pretty wide berth around the epicenter of the 1811-1812 quakes and any nuclear plants (look at the Missouri bootheel, that's basically the heart of the damage zone from those, it literally wound up in Missouri because the damage from those quakes made that land cheap and a Missouri businessman got his hands on it). Western-Central Arkansas, Eastern/Central Tennessee, a couple in the heart of IL and MO.

 

So that's at least something. But honestly, in the event of a magnitude 8 event on New Madrid, the safety of those in southern IL and MO might well rely on the safety systems in the plants. If you recall the East Coast quake 2 years ago...that one was large enough that it was beyond the safety limits for the closest nuclear plant, if only slightly. It didn't take serious damage, but the fact that they only had that thing rigged for a magnitude ~5.8 event was fairly disheartening.

 

Hopefully if they've built those things in that area, they've got them up to snuff to sustain a magnitude 7+ event, but if I can be pessimistic for a minute...Fukushima was supposed to be safe from the quake, and we saw quite readily what simply disabling the pumping systems did to that plant. There are also a couple nuclear plants within the potential damage zones of faults, including the San Andreas, in California, one of which (San Onofre) is already shut down because of excessive mechanical failures.

 

People have been worried about how those reactors would react to a well positioned earthquake for years, and although they say they're built to sustain those ground motions...I'll still call myself worried because of all of the interdependent systems. Simply knocking off the piping to the backup pumps was enough to cause a meltdown in Japan. The question for all of these then is how reliable the Nuclear Regulatory Commission licensing is, because that's what we're counting on to ensure survivability.

[StrangeSox]

Diablo Canyon was built pretty much on a fault line.

 

Anything that comes near a critical structure, even a mounting bracket, usually has to be seismically engineered at a nuke plant. The requirements (basically, peak accelerations you have to account for) vary by region throughout the country.

[southsider2k5]

Now I'd call this the "Trump" card. Now watch Maher weasel out of it.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/yahoo-...-151304482.html

 

Donald Trump has placed himself in the middle of another controversy involving a birth certificate—this time his own.

 

In a letter obtained by Yahoo News, the real estate mogul and de facto leader of last year's "birther" movement against President Barack Obama sent a copy of his New York City birth certificate to comedian Bill Maher, who earlier this week made a Trump-like demand to see it.

 

On Monday's "Tonight Show With Jay Leno," Maher said he would donate $5 million to the charity of Trump’s choice (Maher suggested Hair Club for Men, among others) if the "Celebrity Apprentice" host could prove he is not the "spawn of his mother having sex with an orangutan." Maher was mocking Trump's much-publicized announcement in October that he would donate $5 million to charity if Obama would release his college records.

 

On Tuesday, a lawyer for Trump sent the letter to Maher with the birth certificate attached, asking the "Real Time" host to make good on his late-night offer:

 

Attached hereto is a copy of Mr. Trump's birth certificate, demonstrating that he is the son of Fred Trump, not an orangutan. Please remit the $5 million to Mr. Trump immediately and he will ensure that the money be donated to the following five charities in equal amounts: Hurricane Sandy Victims, The Police Athletic League, The American Cancer Society, The March of Dimes, and The Dana-Farber Cancer Institute.

 

In October, Trump announced he had "something very, very big concerning the president of the United States"—something he said could "possibly" change the election—leading to speculation that the 66-year-old might have unearthed scandalous information about Obama.

 

"Barack Obama is the least transparent president in the history of this country," Trump said in a video shot from his New York office and uploaded to YouTube. "I'm very honored to have gotten him to release his long-form birth certificate or whatever it may be.

 

"I have a deal for the president," Trump continued. "If Barack Obama opens up and gives his college records and applications and if he gives his passport applications and records, I will give to a charity of his choice—inner-city children in Chicago, American Cancer Society, AIDS research, anything he wants—a check immediately for $5 million."

 

Obama was unfazed. On "The Tonight Show," Obama joked to Leno that the bad blood between him and the "Celebrity Apprentice" star "dates back to when we were growing up together in Kenya."

 

Trump thrust himself into the spotlight again on election night, firing off a series of tweets after Obama's victory over Mitt Romney.

 

"Well, back to the drawing board!" Trump tweeted shortly after several networks, including Fox News, called Ohio in the president's favor, sealing the win. "We can't let this happen. We should march on Washington and stop this travesty. Our nation is totally divided!

 

"Lets fight like hell and stop this great and disgusting injustice!" Trump continued. "The world is laughing at us. This election is a total sham and a travesty. We are not a democracy!"

 

A representative for Maher did not immediately return a request for comment. On Monday, though, he told Leno he did not want to start a war with The Donald.

 

“I’m not looking for a feud with Donald Trump,” Maher said.

 

See Trump's full letter, including birth certificate, below:

 

January 8, 2013

 

Mr. Bill Maher

 

Real Time with Bill Maher

CBS Studios

7800 Beverly Boulevard

Los Angeles, CA 90036

 

Dear Mr. Maher:

 

I represent Mr. Donald J. Trump. I write on his behalf to accept your offer (made during the Jay Leno Show on January 7, 2013) that Mr. Trump prove he is not the "spawn of his mother having sex with an orangutan."

 

Attached hereto is a copy of Mr. Trump's birth certificate, demonstrating that he is the son of Fred Trump, not an orangutan. Please remit the $5 million to Mr. Trump immediately and he will ensure that the money be donated to the following five charities in equal amounts: Hurricane Sandy Victims, The Police Athletic League, The American Cancer Society, The March of Dimes, and The Dana-Farber Cancer Institute.

 

Regards,

 

Scott S. Balber

[mr_genius]

Now I'd call this the "Trump" card. Now watch Maher weasel out of it.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/yahoo-...-151304482.html

 

Haha nice

[Jenksismyhero]

I hope they take him to court over that. Sounds to me like that was an oral unilateral contract with performance by Trump.

[pettie4sox]

Trump has no case. Maher was simply attempting to be funny. If Trump couldn't see that, then the folly is on him.

Edited January 11, 2013 by pettie4sox

[Jake]

It still wouldn't shock me if Maher decided to donate the money. He throws millions around on his show if he is to be believed.

[Soxbadger]

I hope they take him to court over that. Sounds to me like that was an oral unilateral contract with performance by Trump.

 

Trump would argue unilateral contract with performance.

 

Maher would argue that there was no contract as there was no "meeting of the minds" and therefore its unenforceable.

 

Bottom line Id guess Maher wins and Trump loses. No way is any judge going to want to set a precedent that a joke or something on tv can be turned into a binding contract. Well see what happens but I doubt it goes anywhere. For Trump to win theyd have to exhume his father and do a DNA test. Because isnt Trump's position that birth certificates arent legitimate proof?

 

Seems silly.

[StrangeSox]

would romney's $10,000 bet have been legally enforceable?

[Y2HH]

would romney's $10,000 bet have been legally enforceable?

 

It's possible that it depends on the state he's in. Aren't oral contracts enforceable in certain states, and not in others? In such a case, it may be prudent for them to prove they wer joking. Then again, I'm not a lawyer. So I don't actually know...I just wanted to add my 2 cents that are worth far less then that.

[EvilMonkey]

It's possible that it depends on the state he's in. Aren't oral contracts enforceable in certain states, and not in others? In such a case, it may be prudent for them to prove they wer joking. Then again, I'm not a lawyer. So I don't actually know...I just wanted to add my 2 cents that are worth far less then that.

Since he is not funny, he would lose the 'i was joking' argument.

[EvilMonkey]

Seems like the DC AG has decided that despite a clear violation of the law, he will not be prosecuting David Gregory. One set of rules for the 'little people' and another for the connected, it seems.

http://legalinsurrection.com/2013/01/david...-be-prosecuted/

OAG has made this determination, despite the clarity of the violation of this important law, because under all of the circumstances here a prosecution would not promote public safety in the District of Columbia nor serve the best interests of the people of the District to whom this office owes its trust.

 

If you are in the 'little people' class, this is the treatment the DC AG gives you:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/j...-david-gregory/

 

Despite the evidence Mr. Brinkley had been legally transporting the gun, his attorney Richard Gardiner said the D.C. Office of the Attorney General “wouldn’t drop it.” This is the same office now showing apparent reluctance to charge Mr. Gregory.

 

 

 

[EvilMonkey]

I wonder if this shop owner can get the area around his store declared a 'Gun Free Zone'? Yeah, that might work.

 

http://abclocal.go.com/kfsn/story?section=...&id=8948286

 

MADERA, Calif. (KFSN) -- The second suspect in a deadly shooting has been arrested in Southeast Fresno. He's accused of trying to kill a Madera pharmacy owner and his mother.

 

Related Content

Story: Madera pharmacy owner shoots, kills suspect

More: ABC30 Neighborhood News

 

The shooting happened inside the pharmacy on Almond and Emily Way around 6:30 pm.

 

The pharmacy owner Bryan Lee said he left the back door of his store unlocked for a customer stopping by after business hours. Shortly after the customer left, Lee said two men in ski-masks barged in through the back door and started shooting.

 

The mother and son said they ducked behind the counter as bullets kept flying. One of them hit the mother in the leg. "It was not a robbery so much as an execution," Lee said. "It was an attempted assassination, they didn't make any demands, they simply came in, reached over, and it was basically shooting us almost in the back of the head.They shot my mother and almost shot me, I was just surrounded by holes."

 

Lee grabbed a gun and started shooting at one of the two suspects.

 

Police Chief Steve Frazier said he had information that the suspect was shot in the face, in the torso, and then once in the leg.

 

Frazier said the suspect, 31-year-old Aquilla Bailey, fell to the floor, and then managed to run out of the store and down the block before collapsing. Bailey later died at the hospital.Officers spent the day searching for the second suspect and piecing together a possible motive.

 

"The information we've developed is that the pharmacy was targeted probably specifically for the drugs on hand there, we don't have any information that the owner was specifically targeted at this point," Frazier said.

 

This wasn't the first time the pharmacy near highway 99 has been hit. Lee said he was able to stop two other attempted robberies in the 15 years he's owned the business, but this was the first time he felt he and his mother might die.

 

"I thought yesterday was the last day for both us, and luckily it didn't turn out that way," Lee said.

 

Lee and his mother Sophia both returned to work less than 24 hours after the shooting.

 

Authorities said the suspect who died was a known gang member from Fresno.Officers were searching the Fresno area for the other suspect and hope to make an arrest very soon. The second suspect was not armed but will still face murder charges.

[Reddy]

Seems like the DC AG has decided that despite a clear violation of the law, he will not be prosecuting David Gregory. One set of rules for the 'little people' and another for the connected, it seems.

http://legalinsurrection.com/2013/01/david...-be-prosecuted/

 

 

If you are in the 'little people' class, this is the treatment the DC AG gives you:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/j...-david-gregory/

 

and this is new how? it's always been that way since the dawn of mankind.

[mr_genius]

Seems like the DC AG has decided that despite a clear violation of the law, he will not be prosecuting David Gregory. One set of rules for the 'little people' and another for the connected, it seems.

http://legalinsurrection.com/2013/01/david...-be-prosecuted/

 

Democrats and their propaganda associates in the media are above the law.

[Jake]

While I couldn't argue with them getting Gregory (why not use a prop? lol), it certainly did not serve any kind of public safety purpose in DC. Gregory did far more for public safety by having that conversation with LaPierre and flashing those objects about than the PD arresting/fining him would have done.

[Reddy]

Democrats and their propaganda associates in the media are above the law.

 

Dick... Nixon... says... hi?

[G&T]

It's possible that it depends on the state he's in. Aren't oral contracts enforceable in certain states, and not in others? In such a case, it may be prudent for them to prove they wer joking. Then again, I'm not a lawyer. So I don't actually know...I just wanted to add my 2 cents that are worth far less then that.

 

Oral contracts are enforceable in all states. The question is one of proof that there was a contract.

 

Obviously from Trumps perspective it doesn't matter whether Maher pays. If he doesn't pay he will look like a fool.

[mr_genius]

Gregory did far more for public safety by having that conversation with LaPierre and flashing those objects about than the PD arresting/fining him would have done.

 

i love how the law is interpreted under the Obama regime. this is actually excellent precedent for any and every gun law to be arbitrarily ignored with selective and discriminatory enforcement.

Edited January 13, 2013 by mr_genius

[mr_genius]

Dick... Nixon... says... hi?

 

Richard Nixon is dead, Reddy. He does not say anything.

[Jake]

i love how the law is interpreted under the Obama regime.

 

Of course, I said that it seems like he should get in trouble...but this is not the most heinous of non-enforcements. I'm sure you can sympathize, you wouldn't want to waste taxpayer dollars, right? Anyways, it is unclear to me what Obama has to do with DC law enforcement.

[mr_genius]

I'm sure you can sympathize, you wouldn't want to waste taxpayer dollars, right?

 

No, I am fine with tax dollars being used to prosecute David Gregory.

Edited January 13, 2013 by mr_genius

[EvilMonkey]

and this is new how? it's always been that way since the dawn of mankind.

The very gun law the AG is choosing NOT to enforce here now is one of the same ones you gun grabbers want to install everywhere. This entire situation shows just how useless that law is. Enforce the laws that are on the books already before you try and make more, How about that?

[Jake]

No, I am fine with tax dollars being used to prosecute David Gregory.

 

What if David Gregory left prison as a poor man with a family, in need of assistance? Do we give him bootstraps or food stamps?