The Republican Thread

[Texsox]

Yesterday SS2k5 posted elsewhere about his opposition to a GOP policy that was one of the best reasoned, well articulated arguments I have read in a while. I hope he shares it here. (hint hint)

 

Also, I was mostly in agreement with the GOP proposals on immigration.

 

Hmm, SS2k5 agreeing with the left and my agreeing with the right. Is this a harbinger of doom?

 

[EvilMonkey]

Yesterday SS2k5 posted elsewhere about his opposition to a GOP policy that was one of the best reasoned, well articulated arguments I have read in a while. I hope he shares it here. (hint hint)

 

Also, I was mostly in agreement with the GOP proposals on immigration.

 

Hmm, SS2k5 agreeing with the left and my agreeing with the right. Is this a harbinger of doom?

I saw it. The particular policy he was ranting about is one where I would wager that most people on BOTH sides don't really care about, but it is more the vocal minorities on each side staking out their ground and bringing the rest along with them, or trying to.

[Texsox]

There can't be agreement between the parties. That doesn't "sell". It doesn't bring in campaign dollars, doesn't inspire fear. It's like a s***ty card game. They deal the issues and you have to play that card.

[StrangeSox]

Or it could be that there are real legitimate and deep disagreements over both the proper size/scope of public policy and what that policy should be!

[Texsox]

Or it could be that there are real legitimate and deep disagreements over both the proper size/scope of public policy and what that policy should be!

 

I agree there are areas like that. But currently there is zero agreement on anything. That situation is manufactured.

[cabiness42]

I agree there are areas like that. But currently there is zero agreement on anything. That situation is manufactured.

 

I understand that actually electing third party candidates is almost impossible, but how much of the vote would they need to get to start having an influence on the two major parties?

[StrangeSox]

I understand that actually electing third party candidates is almost impossible, but how much of the vote would they need to get to start having an influence on the two major parties?

 

Enough so that somebody actually loses office. Even then, the structure of our government virtually guarantees domination by two parties. We don't have a parliamentary system where various parties need to form coalition governments. We also don't have proportional representation. Coming in second place with say 49% in every race means you get zero seats and no representation. Splintering the party that's closest to your own values, even if they aren't all that close, only strengthens the other party that much more.

 

If a lot of the hardline tea party types who cast anyone to the left of Cruz as a RINO really would just sit home instead of voting for less-than-ideal Republican candidates, the end result is basically just complete Democratic domination. On the flip side we have Naderites playing a large role in Bush becoming president in 2000 instead of Gore. How could that be a preferential outcome for anyone who supported Nader's policies?

 

eta:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%27s_Law

Edited February 7, 2014 by StrangeSox

[cabiness42]

Well, what I'm thinking of is a large-scale effort to get people to vote 3rd party in the 2014 Congressional elections. In 2012, third parties got 3.6% of the vote. If an organized effort got that total up into the 10-15% range, would that be enough to make the big parties take notice? There are an awful lot of safe districts where people could vote for 3rd party candidates as a statement of dissastisfaction with the current system without having a chance at affecting the outcome.

[southsider2k5]

Well, what I'm thinking of is a large-scale effort to get people to vote 3rd party in the 2014 Congressional elections. In 2012, third parties got 3.6% of the vote. If an organized effort got that total up into the 10-15% range, would that be enough to make the big parties take notice? There are an awful lot of safe districts where people could vote for 3rd party candidates as a statement of dissastisfaction with the current system without having a chance at affecting the outcome.

 

The last time a 3rd party took double digits in an election the Dems and Repubs rewrote the rules to make it harder for third parties to compete.

 

*I voted 3rd party for President last time as a protest vote knowing full well it didn't matter.

[StrangeSox]

Well, what I'm thinking of is a large-scale effort to get people to vote 3rd party in the 2014 Congressional elections. In 2012, third parties got 3.6% of the vote. If an organized effort got that total up into the 10-15% range, would that be enough to make the big parties take notice? There are an awful lot of safe districts where people could vote for 3rd party candidates as a statement of dissastisfaction with the current system without having a chance at affecting the outcome.

 

Protest votes in safe states or districts won't mean a thing. Republicans have been responding very strongly to primary challenges from their conservative base lately. They don't want to lose their seats, and those represent legitimate threats. 10% of people voting for some third party in a safe district won't matter because they have no reason to be concerned about it.

 

There's also the problem of coming up with a coalition of 10-15% of the population that is dissatisfied with the current parties for similar reasons.

 

Short of something like what caused the collapse of the Whigs in the 1850's, there isn't really an opportunity for a third major party to come into existence with how our elections are structured. You have to think of it in game theory terms. If you have say three or four parties getting a grand total of 10-15% of the vote, none of them individually matter at all. Without proportional representation, you get nothing for perpetually being in third place.

 

You could have a chance at occasional success for the Presidency with a third party, but it can't really happen for Congress. Neither you or I may like the D's or R's all that much, but I'm sure they're for very, very different reasons and I'd much rather have Democratic policies I'm not in love with over Republican policies. If I make a protest vote for a left-liberal third party candidate and so do enough other people in my district, all that means is that I'm making it easier for Republican policies to be implemented.

 

edit: things can be different at the local level, of course. Seattle recently elected an open Socialist to their city council.

Edited February 7, 2014 by StrangeSox

[Texsox]

I think there is a simpler, grass roots, way of bringing this back together. Most of the people here overlap on issues. Even the hard core Dem and hard core GOP types here agree on some issues. For example I wrote to my Dem congressman, my GOP senators, and Dem President, that I supported the GOP initiatives on immigration. I believe it is a nice step forward. Not perfect, but a more than meeting half way by the GOP. I told my congressman and my president that if they significantly caused a deal to fall through it would leave me looking more seriously at GOP candidates. Will it have an affect? Probably not if it is just me. Probably if more people also wrote expressing the same sentiment.

 

 

[Texsox]

When SS2k5 ran for the school board I read his materials and would have voted for him if I lived in his district. My first test is simple, is the cadidate sincere in wanting to help the district he serves. SS2k5 clearly is. Can I share the goals the candidate has? In that case I could. The method to get there may be an issue, but the goals are similar.

 

If we look at the goals, most Americans want the same thing. Opportunity, safety, and security for all. Neither group wants children starving, neither group wants people to die from a lack of health care, neither group wants the country to be attacked, neither group wants people to live in fear, and I could go on. The path to get there is the problem. If we do everything possible to reduce the number of guns in our society, if the police could instantly arrest and confiscate any guns they find, gun crimes would be reduced. If more honest people owned guns and used them to protect themselves, gun related victims could have a fighting chance. Either path could work.

 

[Jenksismyhero]

I blame Bush.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/12/justice/loui...cted/index.html

 

(CNN) -- Former New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin was found guilty of federal corruption charges Wednesday after a two-week trial, CNN affiliates report.

Nagin, famous for his desperate pleas for help during Hurricane Katrina, was found guilty of 20 of the 21 counts against him, CNN affiliates WWL and WDSU said. Prosecutors accused him of taking more than $200,000 in bribes, while his family members allegedly received a vacation in Hawaii; first-class airfare to Jamaica; private jet travel and a limousine for New York City; and cellular phone service.

Nagin left office in 2010, after two terms in office.

[EvilMonkey]

I blame Bush.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/12/justice/loui...cted/index.html

Notice how it never refers to him as a Democrat?

[cabiness42]

I blame Bush.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/12/justice/loui...cted/index.html

 

I give 3:1 odds he gets a pardon from Obama.

 

[StrangeSox]

Why on earth do you think Obama would do that?

 

edit: send me your contact information, I'd like to take those 3:1 odds for $1000.

Edited February 12, 2014 by StrangeSox

[pettie4sox]

Notice how it never refers to him as a Democrat?

 

Haha that's pretty funny. Media bias?

[pettie4sox]

I give 3:1 odds he gets a pardon from Obama.

 

[Jake]

The best a third party can do at this point, and it is clearly something that happens, is make its voice loud enough that one or both parties start adopting key tenets of its platform. We see it with the Tea Party, we saw it the Progressive Party a century ago. Of course, the pipe dream of old is that third party would replace one of the two parties. Still a two party system, but a new party.

[Texsox]

Notice how it never refers to him as a Democrat?

 

 

That's why Fox is the best place to get unbiased news. Or any of the dozens of radio shows like Rush, Hannity, O'Reilly. etc.

[Texsox]

I'll bet all these guys are Democrats as well, I don't know because Huffington doesn't mention party.

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/30/i..._n_2581182.html

 

Former Illinois Gov. George Ryan will be leaving prison and heading to a halfway house after serving more than five years for corruption. His departure from prison follows a rich, if ignominious, history in Illinois of ex-governors arriving in and departing from prison.

 

Of Illinois' last seven governors, four have ended up going to prison. They are:

 

_Rod Blagojevich – Governor from 2002 through 2009, when he became the first Illinois governor in history to be impeached. Convicted of numerous corruption charges in 2011, including allegations that he tried to sell or trade President Barack Obama's old Senate seat.

 

_ George Ryan – Governor from 1999 through 2003. After leaving office, was convicted of racketeering for actions as governor and secretary of state. In November 2007, began serving a 6 1/2 year sentence in federal prison.

 

_ Dan Walker – Governor from 1973-1977. Pleaded guilty to bank fraud and other charges in 1987 related to his business activities after leaving office. Spent about a year and a half in federal prison.

 

_ Otto Kerner – Governor from 1961-1968. Resigned to become judge, then was convicted of bribery related to his tenure as governor. Sentenced to three years in prison.

[StrangeSox]

FWIW the AP style guide says that relevance should determine whether or not you include party affiliation.

[Jake]

FWIW the AP Associated Press for Liberals style guide says that relevance should determine whether or not you include party affiliation.

 

FTFY

[Cknolls]

I give 3:1 odds he gets a pardon from Obama.

 

 

I say executive order..

[StrangeSox]

I'll take those 3:1 odds for $1000 from both of you. Easiest money I'll ever make.