The Contreras Conundrum

[Heads22]

How do we deal with the nasty issue of him forgetting how to pitch. Do we send him to the DL with a phantom injury? Do we try someone in AAA? Go out in a trade? It's tough to have faith in a 40 year old.

[knightni]

Option Russell to AAA, bring up Broadway, and let him spot start.

Have Jose pitch out of the bullpen for a week, and see if his velocity improves at all.

If it doesn't, DL him with "fatigue" issues.

[whitesoxfan101]

He's a 5th starter, which means if you make the playoffs, he really wouldn't be a factor. I think you could consider skipping a couple of his starts when they are days off/rain outs instead of giving other rotational guys 5 days rest, but I think Jose can rebound a bit and be an adequate 5th starter the rest of the way. That is unless of course we can trade for a starting pitcher, but that is unlikely. Jose is our best organizational option as a 5th starter though, unless you want to stretch out Masset, but I wouldn't mess with him as he's really rebounded this year and been solid in the pen.

Edited July 14, 2008 by whitesoxfan101

[Heads22]

Option Russell to AAA, bring up Broadway, and let him spot start.

Have Jose pitch out of the bullpen for a week, and see if his velocity improves at all.

If it doesn't, DL him with "fatigue" issues.

 

Broadway has been BAAAAD lately.

[whitesoxfan101]

Option Russell to AAA, bring up Broadway, and let him spot start.

Have Jose pitch out of the bullpen for a week, and see if his velocity improves at all.

If it doesn't, DL him with "fatigue" issues.

 

Broadway has a 6.02 ERA his last 10 starts, and has posted 4.58, 4.68, and 9.39 ERA's in the months since his dominant April ended. He is not the answer.

Edited July 14, 2008 by whitesoxfan101

[bogie]

too late. should have traded him when he was pitching well 5 weeks ago. We all knew that wasn't going to last....

[CanOfCorn]

give him his rest...let him chill out and see what happens after the all-star break. If he can't find his control in the first start or two, ya gotta put him on the DL. Try someone else.

[wilmot825]

Its time for the Broadway show.

[daa84]

im a pretty big charlie haeger fan (especially long term) and he has really had the feel for the knuckler lately in AAA...id give him the first shot i think

[Bubba Philips]

too late. should have traded him when he was pitching well 5 weeks ago. We all knew that wasn't going to last....

top ten excuses

1. we should have traded him 5 weeks ago

2. Jose has an emotional loss [pablo] remember his problems working through a divorce

3. Jose's lack of velocity

4. Jose shaking off signs from the catcher until catcher agrees to fork ball

5. Jose's reliance on the fork ball

6. put him on dl then onto a 2 month rehab assignment

7.trade him

8.Figure cooper can fix him he's our # 5 starter

9. send hi to the bullpen and bring up, my guess, is Clayton Richard presently pitching the best for Charlotte.

10. Do a carbon dating system thing on him and see how old he really is 40+ 50+or 65

[knightni]

You forgot leftover stress from his divorce and child visitation rights.

[greg775]

Man he's in the tank. Completely.

I have no idea what they should do.

I'd DL him as well for fatigue, but he's got to come back at some point and that might be ugly as well.

Does Broadway have the stuff to come up now??

Can Haegar pitch?? I just picture the knuckler getting rocketed off fence after fence all over the league, but you guys would know better than I, those who follow the minors.

Jose is beyond bad right now.

[winninguglyin83]

i think it's time for Charlie.

he and Clayton Richard have been Charlotte's best pitchers lately.

 

And richard isn't ready.

[Bubba Philips]

You forgot leftover stress from his divorce and child visitation rights.

my bad

 

[Chisoxfn]

The Contreras and Konerko issue are similar, although Contreras is a little easier to replace. Even though his overall numbers are respectable for a 5th starter, any scout watching in the last month wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole.

 

With that said, while others will probably disagree, with what we have in the minors, I think Contreras has the highest ceiling out of anyone in the organization that could replace him.

I completely disagree. Unless Contreras has some sort of injury or is going through an undsiclosed dead-arm (July is the typical time a pitcher would go through a regular season dead-arm) than there is absolutely no reason to be optimistic. His velocity is down and he's turned into a one pitch pitcher (the forkball). The problem is the forkball is an inconsistent pitch by nature and as such he can't rely on it because all a hitter would have to do is lay off the fork ball and sit on his mediocre fastball (the difference between his FB and change is miniscule with the decreased velocity on his fastball, which means not only does his fastball have zero velocity/movement but his change-up isn't deceptive so thats terrible).

 

Bottom line, given the dearth of pitching on the trade market you could probably dupe some team into taking Contreras (you may not get anything in return, but you could move him). I would take the approach that moving him is best for the squad and than look at targeting someone like Bedard or even just a serviceable 5 who is a FA or a fair contract and just take him and go with that as the 5th (and try to use Richard as a 6th starter down the stretch to help rest the younger arms). The problem is the Sox probably won't take this approach since they probably still feel Contreras could be a serviceable 5th.

 

The reality is though, him being a serviceable fifth is unlikely and on top of that, when he proves he isn't, he will be untradeable in the off-season and thus the Sox will be stuck with his albatross contract for a final year. Trading Jose would be a gutsy move (1st place teams don't typically trade starters) but it would be the right move.

 

The only other option to move is putting him on the DL to give him rest and just have him work on throwing regime set aside to increase velocity and get his arm fresh again. Let Richard or Egbert pitch during that period and if they are doing great, you put Jose in the pen/on the block and if they don't do good you bring Jose back into the rotation and hope the break helped him regain some of his velocity.

[Chisoxfn]

Option Russell to AAA, bring up Broadway, and let him spot start.

Have Jose pitch out of the bullpen for a week, and see if his velocity improves at all.

If it doesn't, DL him with "fatigue" issues.

I was a big proponent of Broadway early in the season, but he has been downright horrible in Charlotte over the past month and a half or so. Jack Egbert is finally healthy and has been dominant this month in Charlotte (and very good over his past 4-5 starts) while Clayton Richard has done nothing but kick butt since his promotion to Charlotte.

 

Haeger is another option as he's been rock solid for the past two months.

[Chisoxfn]

i think it's time for Charlie.

he and Clayton Richard have been Charlotte's best pitchers lately.

 

And richard isn't ready.

Egbert has been getting his velocity into the mid 90's (94 MPH range) and has been very good as well. Long term Egbert is the best pure starting pitching prospect the Sox have (not including this years draft class). I'd rank Poreda as the starter with the highest upside, but there are a lot more questions surrounding whether he has enough pitches to make it as a dominant starter. Egbert has a very good feel for pitching and is finally healthy (took him a bit of time this season to wear off the rust from being hurt in spring).

 

I'd go Egbert/Haeger/Richard and wouldn't complain with the concept of calling up either. Broadway would be a mistake given his struggles, but he did perform well last year at the major league level and that could be something Ozzie/Kenny remember.

[Chisoxfn]

I will point one thing out. Contreras struggles mean the Sox will keep and even closer eye on Freddy Garcia's progress. You can bet your ass if Garcia shows a healthy arm and some decent velocity in a workout that Ozzie and Kenny will be on the horn and Garcia will be back in a Sox jersey making rehab starts down in AAA.

[gosox41]

How do we deal with the nasty issue of him forgetting how to pitch. Do we send him to the DL with a phantom injury? Do we try someone in AAA? Go out in a trade? It's tough to have faith in a 40 year old.

 

 

I will say this. Ozzie doesn't like playing players who have an injury and it's affecting their performance. He seems to give lots of freemdon to Contreras in previous years and PK this year when it's been clear their injuries have hurt performance.

 

Ozzie would be making a huge mistake if JC is hurt and he chooses to keep pitching him.

 

 

[Chet Lemon]

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?s=...t&p=1647528

[Chisoxfn]

Contreras was in 2005 for the two first months of the season. Since June 10th, his starts have fluctuated, most being poor. That doesn't take away what he did in the first two months. No one is going to convince me that there is anyone in the White Sox farm system that can produce a 3.03 ERA over 74 IP, which is what Jose did in April and May. Thats my point. He is going through a very rough stretch here, but has had major success as recently as last month.

 

I'm not saying Williams shouldn't be keeping an eye out for starting pitchers, but given what Jose showed early on this season, I'm willing to give him a few more goes at it.

 

 

IMO, there is no such thing as a one year albatross contract in baseball.

I would agree with you on the terms of one year not being an albatross, but the Sox are going to have an opportunity this off-season to have about 20-30M to play with (depending on what they do with at least one of Paulie/Thome, Crede, Count, OC & Uribe). If you can't move Count than it makes things much more difficult. And that money can really help fill this teams final holes (ie, getting a legit, stud, CFer as well as pick up one more front line pitcher because i"d like to build this rotation and I think the one final piece its missing is a legit ace). 30 million and a few prospects should be enough to make that happen (Getz will slide in at 2B, Ramirez at SS, Fields at 3B; this means you'll have a very young everyday lineup with Dye and one of Thome/Konerko being the vet bats).

 

But when it comes to Contreras and his good 2 months of the season, the big issue is his velocity. Pre-Slump he was hitting 92-93 on the gun on a relatively regular basis (and was always throwing in the 90's). In this start I didn't see him top 87 and his changeup velocity was in the low 80's (that type of differential is horrendous, especially when Jose throws a changeup that has very little downward movement). Bottom line, Jose's stuff is just horrible.

 

Jose's struggles are the exact opposite of Vaz. I look at Vaz and he's still got very crisp stuff, good velocity, solid breaking pitches and because of that I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him dominate. I would be stunned to see Jose dominate given what he has to currently work with (he's a 2 pitch pitcher, changeup is no longer a pitch given his low velocity on the FB and his FB is easy to hit without the velocity and the lack of velocity also allows hitters additional time to react to the forkball and thus means they are more likely to take it and let it be a ball than swing through it). So unless Jose is hurt or going through a dead-arm, he will not come close to posting what he did earlier this year (in fact I'd be stunned if he was even serviceable).

 

I really hope I'm wrong and this is far more drastic than anything I said about Thome. Cause I recall saying that at the end of the season Thome's stats would be impressive. I just happen to prefer a different type of ball-player.

 

[greg775]

The only other option to move is putting him on the DL to give him rest and just have him work on throwing regime set aside to increase velocity and get his arm fresh again. Let Richard or Egbert pitch during that period and if they are doing great, you put Jose in the pen/on the block and if they don't do good you bring Jose back into the rotation and hope the break helped him regain some of his velocity.

 

Sounds good to me. He's horrid right now.

I don't know why I want to stay with Paulie and dump Jose, but that's how I feel right now.

I'm sure we'll be hearing a lot from Oz about Jose in the papers tonight/tomorrow.

Time to check the Websites.

[Chisoxfn]

Sounds good to me. He's horrid right now.

I don't know why I want to stay with Paulie and dump Jose, but that's how I feel right now.

I'm sure we'll be hearing a lot from Oz about Jose in the papers tonight/tomorrow.

Time to check the Websites.

I think its because you have a legitimate thing to point at for Paulie's struggles (ie, injuries). You really can't even think about putting the past 5 days as any reason to cut Paulie consider they are the first games back from the DL. His early season struggles occurred when he was playing with an injured thumb (which significantly altered his swing).

 

Bottom line, there is at least some reason to think Paulie can be the player he once was (since it appears injuries were the cause of his problems, not a physical decline). In Jose's case, it clearly appears that he's just gotten older and has lost a lot of his physical ability.

[Swingandalongonetoleft]

About velocity being down, I wasn't particularly watching for it, but I know he hit at least 93 a few times, and he's not been known to hit 98-99. It's either he has his fork working, or our outfielders get a good workout chasing down doubles.

 

That said, Texas is a hot hitting team. Our pitching staff as a whole didn't do much to stop them this weekend. I realize Jose has been touched up quite a bit in the last month though. I'm not ready to pronounce him dead yet.

[greg775]

Jose really looks like a long middle reliever in blowouts right now.

Man he looks bad.

I saw that game in KC and he was hopeless.

Oz and KW should take a few days off then meet and figure out how they want to attack the roster to start the second half.