Odds of Buehrle Going to the Hall?

[GoSox05]

He's in the same boat as a couple other Sox players. Really good, but not great. Players like Dye, AJ, Konerko, OC, Vazquez and Crede.

[Balta1701]

Comparing the others pitchers posted, other than wins, Mark looks pretty good if either of these make it.

If Mussina keeps up for the next couple years what he's doing this year, he has a shot at 300 and making it. I'm still amazed at what he's doing this year though.

 

Blyleven always has people pushing for him, and I think eventually he'll be a veterans committee inductee, but those 2 are right at the edge.

 

If Mark keeps coasting along at 10-12 wins per year he just isn't going to get it. He doesn't have the stuff to go Cy Young crazy (although even getting 1 would help)...his best chance is to get in the neighborhood of 300 wins and preferably hit that mark. If he gets to 275 and winds up his career as the closest to 300 out of the crop of pitchers coming of age in the 00's, that might do it given how often people are talking about the number of decisions going to starters decreasing, but that win total is his best shot unless he does something crazy in the postseason.

[Balta1701]

He's in the same boat as a couple other Sox players. Really good, but not great. Players like Dye, AJ, Konerko, OC, Vazquez and Crede.

I think if MB keeps his career going for as long as some other, similar style control pitchers (thinking guys like Glavine, Moyer, yes I know the comparison isn't perfect) then I think Mark is at a level above any of those guys.

[RME JICO]

Ask Jamie Moyer if he thinks he has a shot.

What does Moyer have to do with Buehrle? He has been an All-Star once in 22 years. Moyer had 700IP and 34 wins at age 29, Buehrle has over 1500IP and 100+ wins. No comparison.

[Balta1701]

What does Moyer have to do with Buehrle? He has been an All-Star once in 22 years. Moyer had 700IP and 34 wins at age 29, Buehrle has over 1500IP and 100+ wins. No comparison.

Moyer is important for one reason...longevity. You put MB with Moyer's longevity and he probably gets to 300 and gets in.

[DABearSoX]

What are you talking about "most boring week in sports".....donchaknow we get to watch our hand picked all-stars coming to you live from the greatest city in the world?

[Cochise]

He was actually a Frick award finalist like a year or two ago and I think he'll get that eventually. Like him or not, he's been an institution on the south side for decades now.

Don't get me wrong, I love Hawk. I just don't think he'll go into the Hall as an announcer. Especially if he keeps becoming more and more senile with each passing year. But maybe I'm wrong, and that'd be cool if he did get inducted.

[Chisoxfn]

Kalapse and NS, who are the two guys you are talking about? I'm guessing one is Moose, but who is the other.

 

On a sidenote, I still believe for guys throwing in this generation, 250 may be the new 300 or something close to that. Moose may just miss out on that though because he hasn't had any dominate post-season runs or anything like that. Mark clearly would have to have a run of 18-20 game seasons or at least a few post-season runs, imo.

 

However, I think he has a chance, which in itself says at least something about his career. Albeit, its a slim chance because its hard to project how he'll throw for the next 9-10 years.

[knightni]

Slim.

 

Buehrle has never won 20, and he isn't a power pitcher.

 

If he doesn't pitch until he gets 300 wins, he's another Mike Cuellar, Jamie Moyer or Frank Tanana.

[NorthSideSox72]

Kalapse and NS, who are the two guys you are talking about? I'm guessing one is Moose, but who is the other.

 

On a sidenote, I still believe for guys throwing in this generation, 250 may be the new 300 or something close to that. Moose may just miss out on that though because he hasn't had any dominate post-season runs or anything like that. Mark clearly would have to have a run of 18-20 game seasons or at least a few post-season runs, imo.

 

However, I think he has a chance, which in itself says at least something about his career. Albeit, its a slim chance because its hard to project how he'll throw for the next 9-10 years.

Mussina and Blyleven.

 

[Gregory Pratt]

Mussina will get in, and so will Blyleven. Eventually, if nothing else. As for Buehrle, he has no great peak, so he'll have to have longevity at a very high level and I don't know whether or not that is going to happen for him. I doubt it.

 

I suspect he'll have a statue at the Cell someday, at the very least.

[Whitewashed in '05]

Didn't Buehrle mention he didn't see himself pitching for a long time like Maddux and Glavine when his wife had their baby and he got 100 wins? Without pitching for a long time he won't be considered among other stats. He will end up a White Sox great though when it's all said and done, especially if he is part of another series team.

[Heads22]

I thought this involved Toby somehow. Needless to say I was disappointed.

[Cali]

If you read the title quickly, it looks like it says "Odds of Buehrle Going to the Hell?"

[Vance Law]

What does Moyer have to do with Buehrle? He has been an All-Star once in 22 years. Moyer had 700IP and 34 wins at age 29, Buehrle has over 1500IP and 100+ wins. No comparison.

 

Yes comparison.

Buehrle would need to become Moyer to have any shot at the Hall. Soft-tossing lefty who stays around well into his 40s.

 

[knightni]

If you read the title quickly, it looks like it says "Odds of Buehrle Going to the Hell?"

I thought that too, but I figured that it wasn't funny enough.

[WilliamTell]

I won't flat out say no chance, but probably no chance.

[whitesoxfan101]

Mark has the kind of makeup that it wouldn't surprise me if he pitched until he was 40 or so. However, even if he pitches that long, he'd just be a hall of very good type IMO. Hope I'm wrong though.

[greg775]

I can't see many modern pitchers making the Hall.

Look at all the sudden flameouts after dominant starts to careers.

Is Zito going to lose 20 games this year?

[Greg Hibbard]

Yes comparison.

Buehrle would need to become Moyer to have any shot at the Hall. Soft-tossing lefty who stays around well into his 40s.

 

No, there really is no comparison. Moyer was always a mediocre pitcher who relied on longevity and junk balls. Buehrle is much more comparable to Greg Maddux in style and composition.

 

Buehrle isn't even 30 yet and has 113 wins. Assuming he gets 4 more wins this season (which is a pretty safe assumption) he'll have 117 wins before the age of 30. Considering Mark is remarkably durable and reasonably consistent, I don't think it's too much of a stretch to think he'll have 100 more wins over the next 7 years (14 per year) That would put him at 217 at the age of 37.

 

Assuming that 250 is the new hall benchmark, I don't see where "well into his forties" comes into play when by the age of 40 at 14 per season he'd be past 250...

 

[Texsox]

There are guys in the hall that were spectacular for 5 or 6 seasons. There are guys that were excellent for many, many years. I see him having a chance based on the mood of the hall voters and the fact he's a good guy to the media. They will, barring changes, be looking for reason to open the door. I also see him as being a veterans committee selection.

[Paint it Black]

When I think of dominate pitchers from the 2000-2008 era Mark Buehrle's name does not come to mind

[Greg Hibbard]

Here's something else to chew on -

 

Johan Santana is the same age as Buehrle and has 12 less wins. Even if he wins 20 games per season over the next 7 seasons, he's STILL short of 250.

 

In fact, there aren't many active starting pitchers around Buehrle's age that have comparable win/ERA totals.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/W_active.shtml

 

notables:

 

1. Greg Maddux (42) 350 wins - hall of famer

2. Tom Glavine* (42) 305 wins - hall of famer

3. Randy Johnson* (44) 290 wins - hall of famer

4. Mike Mussina (39) 261 wins - probably a hall of famer

5. Jamie Moyer* (45) 238 wins - no

6. Kenny Rogers* (43) 216 wins - maybe in the country music hall of fame

Curt Schilling (41) 216 wins - wow is this enough wins? I would've thought he had more.

8. Pedro Martinez (36) 212 wins - too injury prone to end up with enough wins?

9. Andy Pettitte* (36) 211 wins - no

10. John Smoltz (41) 210 wins - yes, because of his saves too

11. Tim Wakefield (41) 174 wins - no

12. Bartolo Colon (35) 150 wins - ha

13. Aaron Sele (38) 148 wins - no

14. Tim Hudson (32) 144 wins - potentially

15. Livan Hernandez (33) 143 wins - no

Steve Trachsel (37) 143 wins - hell no

17. Kevin Millwood (33) 139 wins - no

18. Tom Gordon (40) 138 wins - no

19. Woody Williams (41) 132 wins - no

20. Jon Lieber (38) 131 wins - no

21. Jason Schmidt (35) 128 wins - no

22. Esteban Loaiza (36) 126 wins - no

23. Hideo Nomo (39) 123 wins - no

Jeff Suppan (33) 123 wins - no, but who knew he had this many wins

25. Roy Halladay (31) 122 wins - potentially yes, if he doesn't get injured

Javier Vazquez (31) 122 wins - probably way too inconsistent to last

27. Matt Morris (33) 121 wins - no

28. Derek Lowe (35) 119 wins - no

Roy Oswalt (30) 119 wins - potentially yes

30. Freddy Garcia (33) 117 wins - LOLZ

Chan Ho Park (35) 117 wins - LOLZ part II

Barry Zito* (30) 117 wins - LOLZ part III - apparently 117 is the funny number

33. Mark Buehrle* (29) 113 wins - see above discussion

34. Russ Ortiz (34) 110 wins - no

35. C.C. Sabathia* (27) 108 wins - potentially

36. Mark Mulder* (30) 103 wins - no

37. Kelvim Escobar (32) 101 wins - no

Johan Santana* (29) 101 wins - obv has the potential

39. Paul Byrd (37) 100 - no

Chris Carpenter (33) 100 - no

Shawn Estes* (35) 100 wins - no

Jon Garland (28) 100 wins - hmmmm lol

43. Jarrod Washburn* (33) 97 wins - no

44. Darren Oliver* (37) 96 wins - no

45. Brett Tomko (35) 95 wins - no

46. Brad Penny (30) 93 wins - no

Jeff Weaver (31) 93 wins - no

48. Carlos Zambrano (27) 92 wins - has the potential

49. Orlando Hernandez (42) 90 wins - no

50. Miguel Batista (37) 88 wins - no

51. Matt Clement (33) 87 wins - no

Eric Milton* (32) 87 wins - no

Sidney Ponson (31) 87 wins - no

54. Josh Beckett (28) 86 wins - potentially

55. John Lackey (29) 85 wins - no

56. Ramon Ortiz (35) 84 wins - no

Julian Tavarez (35) 84 wins - no

Randy Wolf* (31) 84 wins - no

59. Ted Lilly* (32) 83 wins - no

Jake Peavy (27) 83 wins - has the potential

 

So there's your top 60 active leaders, the ones in bold are the potential hall of famers from Buehrle's age range. There's only 11 candidates bolded from the ages of 27-33

Edited July 16, 2008 by Greg Hibbard

[Colorado Sox Fan]

Here's something else to chew on -

 

Johan Santana is the same age as Buehrle and has 12 less wins. Even if he wins 20 games per season over the next 7 seasons, he's STILL short of 250.

 

In fact, there aren't many active starting pitchers around Buehrle's age that have comparable win/ERA totals.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/W_active.shtml

 

notables:

 

1. Greg Maddux (42) 350 wins - hall of famer

2. Tom Glavine* (42) 305 wins - hall of famer

3. Randy Johnson* (44) 290 wins - hall of famer

4. Mike Mussina (39) 261 wins - probably a hall of famer

5. Jamie Moyer* (45) 238 wins - no

6. Kenny Rogers* (43) 216 wins - maybe in the country music hall of fame

Curt Schilling (41) 216 wins - wow is this enough wins? I would've thought he had more.

8. Pedro Martinez (36) 212 wins - too injury prone to end up with enough wins?

9. Andy Pettitte* (36) 211 wins - no

10. John Smoltz (41) 210 wins - yes, because of his saves too

11. Tim Wakefield (41) 174 wins - no

12. Bartolo Colon (35) 150 wins - ha

13. Aaron Sele (38) 148 wins - no

14. Tim Hudson (32) 144 wins - potentially

15. Livan Hernandez (33) 143 wins - no

Steve Trachsel (37) 143 wins - hell no

17. Kevin Millwood (33) 139 wins - no

18. Tom Gordon (40) 138 wins - no

19. Woody Williams (41) 132 wins - no

20. Jon Lieber (38) 131 wins - no

21. Jason Schmidt (35) 128 wins - no

22. Esteban Loaiza (36) 126 wins - no

23. Hideo Nomo (39) 123 wins - no

Jeff Suppan (33) 123 wins - no, but who knew he had this many wins

25. Roy Halladay (31) 122 wins - potentially yes, if he doesn't get injured

Javier Vazquez (31) 122 wins - probably way too inconsistent to last

27. Matt Morris (33) 121 wins - no

28. Derek Lowe (35) 119 wins - no

Roy Oswalt (30) 119 wins - potentially yes

30. Freddy Garcia (33) 117 wins - LOLZ

Chan Ho Park (35) 117 wins - LOLZ part II

Barry Zito* (30) 117 wins - LOLZ part III - apparently 117 is the funny number

33. Mark Buehrle* (29) 113 wins - see above discussion

34. Russ Ortiz (34) 110 wins - no

35. C.C. Sabathia* (27) 108 wins - potentially

36. Mark Mulder* (30) 103 wins - no

37. Kelvim Escobar (32) 101 wins - no

Johan Santana* (29) 101 wins - obv has the potential

39. Paul Byrd (37) 100 - no

Chris Carpenter (33) 100 - no

Shawn Estes* (35) 100 wins - no

Jon Garland (28) 100 wins - hmmmm lol

43. Jarrod Washburn* (33) 97 wins - no

44. Darren Oliver* (37) 96 wins - no

45. Brett Tomko (35) 95 wins - no

46. Brad Penny (30) 93 wins - no

Jeff Weaver (31) 93 wins - no

48. Carlos Zambrano (27) 92 wins - has the potential

49. Orlando Hernandez (42) 90 wins - no

50. Miguel Batista (37) 88 wins - no

51. Matt Clement (33) 87 wins - no

Eric Milton* (32) 87 wins - no

Sidney Ponson (31) 87 wins - no

54. Josh Beckett (28) 86 wins - potentially

55. John Lackey (29) 85 wins - no

56. Ramon Ortiz (35) 84 wins - no

Julian Tavarez (35) 84 wins - no

Randy Wolf* (31) 84 wins - no

59. Ted Lilly* (32) 83 wins - no

Jake Peavy (27) 83 wins - has the potential

 

So there's your top 60 active leaders, the ones in bold are the potential hall of famers from Buehrle's age range. There's only 11 candidates bolded from the ages of 27-33

This is a great compiliation. Thanks

[Gregory Pratt]

I mean, it doesn't take 300 wins to make the Hall of Fame. Andy Pettitte, for instance, is going to go in eventually, if not as a voters' choice then by the veteran's committee in several decades. Why? He's money in the postseason and a big-name ballplayer from this era. Buehrle has a good chance of getting in some day, but he has to keep his ERA below a certain mark -- 3.8? -- and have a lot of really good years for a lot of years.