Odds of Buehrle Going to the Hall?

[Greg Hibbard]

I mean, it doesn't take 300 wins to make the Hall of Fame. Andy Pettitte, for instance, is going to go in eventually, if not as a voters' choice then by the veteran's committee in several decades. Why? He's money in the postseason and a big-name ballplayer from this era. Buehrle has a good chance of getting in some day, but he has to keep his ERA below a certain mark -- 3.8? -- and have a lot of really good years for a lot of years.

 

But the whole point is that so far it DOES take 300 wins, at least at this point, to get into the hall...and I'd be surprised if they dipped lower than 250 as a benchmark...

 

Pettitte is not a hall of fame pitcher IMO. He has a career 1.35 WHIP, and the 200+ wins he does have are mostly because he almost exclusively played on excellent teams. He was never particularly dominant, just very good. On the Yankees he mostly had an ERA in the low 4's - while winning 17-19 games per season because they scored 6+ runs a game for him.

[whitesoxfan99]

Here's something else to chew on -

 

Johan Santana is the same age as Buehrle and has 12 less wins. Even if he wins 20 games per season over the next 7 seasons, he's STILL short of 250.

 

In fact, there aren't many active starting pitchers around Buehrle's age that have comparable win/ERA totals.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/W_active.shtml

 

notables:

 

1. Greg Maddux (42) 350 wins - hall of famer

2. Tom Glavine* (42) 305 wins - hall of famer

3. Randy Johnson* (44) 290 wins - hall of famer

4. Mike Mussina (39) 261 wins - probably a hall of famer

5. Jamie Moyer* (45) 238 wins - no

6. Kenny Rogers* (43) 216 wins - maybe in the country music hall of fame

Curt Schilling (41) 216 wins - wow is this enough wins? I would've thought he had more.

8. Pedro Martinez (36) 212 wins - too injury prone to end up with enough wins?

9. Andy Pettitte* (36) 211 wins - no

10. John Smoltz (41) 210 wins - yes, because of his saves too

11. Tim Wakefield (41) 174 wins - no

12. Bartolo Colon (35) 150 wins - ha

13. Aaron Sele (38) 148 wins - no

14. Tim Hudson (32) 144 wins - potentially

15. Livan Hernandez (33) 143 wins - no

Steve Trachsel (37) 143 wins - hell no

17. Kevin Millwood (33) 139 wins - no

18. Tom Gordon (40) 138 wins - no

19. Woody Williams (41) 132 wins - no

20. Jon Lieber (38) 131 wins - no

21. Jason Schmidt (35) 128 wins - no

22. Esteban Loaiza (36) 126 wins - no

23. Hideo Nomo (39) 123 wins - no

Jeff Suppan (33) 123 wins - no, but who knew he had this many wins

25. Roy Halladay (31) 122 wins - potentially yes, if he doesn't get injured

Javier Vazquez (31) 122 wins - probably way too inconsistent to last

27. Matt Morris (33) 121 wins - no

28. Derek Lowe (35) 119 wins - no

Roy Oswalt (30) 119 wins - potentially yes

30. Freddy Garcia (33) 117 wins - LOLZ

Chan Ho Park (35) 117 wins - LOLZ part II

Barry Zito* (30) 117 wins - LOLZ part III - apparently 117 is the funny number

33. Mark Buehrle* (29) 113 wins - see above discussion

34. Russ Ortiz (34) 110 wins - no

35. C.C. Sabathia* (27) 108 wins - potentially

36. Mark Mulder* (30) 103 wins - no

37. Kelvim Escobar (32) 101 wins - no

Johan Santana* (29) 101 wins - obv has the potential

39. Paul Byrd (37) 100 - no

Chris Carpenter (33) 100 - no

Shawn Estes* (35) 100 wins - no

Jon Garland (28) 100 wins - hmmmm lol

43. Jarrod Washburn* (33) 97 wins - no

44. Darren Oliver* (37) 96 wins - no

45. Brett Tomko (35) 95 wins - no

46. Brad Penny (30) 93 wins - no

Jeff Weaver (31) 93 wins - no

48. Carlos Zambrano (27) 92 wins - has the potential

49. Orlando Hernandez (42) 90 wins - no

50. Miguel Batista (37) 88 wins - no

51. Matt Clement (33) 87 wins - no

Eric Milton* (32) 87 wins - no

Sidney Ponson (31) 87 wins - no

54. Josh Beckett (28) 86 wins - potentially

55. John Lackey (29) 85 wins - no

56. Ramon Ortiz (35) 84 wins - no

Julian Tavarez (35) 84 wins - no

Randy Wolf* (31) 84 wins - no

59. Ted Lilly* (32) 83 wins - no

Jake Peavy (27) 83 wins - has the potential

 

So there's your top 60 active leaders, the ones in bold are the potential hall of famers from Buehrle's age range. There's only 11 candidates bolded from the ages of 27-33

 

Pedro is a stone cold lock for the hall of fame. Best pitcher of this generation. Arguably the best of all time

[Greg Hibbard]

Pedro is a stone cold lock for the hall of fame. Best pitcher of this generation. Arguably the best of all time

 

I pretty much agree he's one of the best, but Santana has been as dominant over the last five years as Pedro was from 1997-2002.

Edited July 16, 2008 by Greg Hibbard

[Gregory Pratt]

But the whole point is that so far it DOES take 300 wins, at least at this point, to get into the hall...and I'd be surprised if they dipped lower than 250 as a benchmark...

 

Pettitte is not a hall of fame pitcher IMO. He has a career 1.35 WHIP, and the 200+ wins he does have are mostly because he almost exclusively played on excellent teams. He was never particularly dominant, just very good. On the Yankees he mostly had an ERA in the low 4's - while winning 17-19 games per season because they scored 6+ runs a game for him.

 

The bold is false. False from Lefty Gomez to Whitey Ford, from Bob Gibson to Juan Marichal, from Chief Bender to Don Drysdale, Candy Cummings Catfish Hunter to Mordecai Brown to Jim Bunning to Jack Chesbro to Stan Coveleski. And that's just off the top of my head. Hell, a few of these guys have less than 200 wins.

 

As for Andy Pettitte, he is not particularly deserving if the standard is true greatness that very few have ever reached, like Ruth or Walter Johnson, but that is not the standard nor has it ever been since the first election. If you want proof of pitchers who do not belong in the Hall but made it anyway because they were Yankees in the playoffs and very good then you can look at Gomez and Ford.

 

For what it's worth, Pettitte wouldn't be the worst Hall of Famer but that is neither here nor there at the moment.

 

People seem to believe that you have to win 300 and strikeout 3000 or something but that simply is not true.

[Gregory Pratt]

I pretty much agree he's one of the best, but Santana has been as dominant over the last five years as Pedro was from 1997-2002.

 

Well, no, actually. Pedro's got more Ks, I'd guess fewer walks (I'm not going to add them) and much lower ERAs and WHIPs. Santana never came close to Pedro's best ERA+es and that's just a basic look. Santana's had a damn good run but it is not Pedro's or any functional equivalent thereof.

Edited July 16, 2008 by Gregory Pratt

[southsider2k5]

I mean, it doesn't take 300 wins to make the Hall of Fame. Andy Pettitte, for instance, is going to go in eventually, if not as a voters' choice then by the veteran's committee in several decades. Why? He's money in the postseason and a big-name ballplayer from this era. Buehrle has a good chance of getting in some day, but he has to keep his ERA below a certain mark -- 3.8? -- and have a lot of really good years for a lot of years.

 

It takes something to make the Hall. For most it is statistical dominance over a period of time. For others it is being so good at one thing that those numbers get thrown out. For still others it is changing the game to something it had never been before. To me nothing about Mark stands out as so remarkable, that he deserves to get mentioned with the all time greats.

[Gregory Pratt]

It takes something to make the Hall. For most it is statistical dominance over a period of time. For others it is being so good at one thing that those numbers get thrown out. For still others it is changing the game to something it had never been before. To me nothing about Mark stands out as so remarkable, that he deserves to get mentioned with the all time greats.

 

Well, that's the broader point I made earlier, but I would agree with that. I'm just saying that "big round number" is not the case, and any declaration that "so far it does" take 300 wins is patently false.

 

Will Buehrle make the Hall of Fame? Probably not. But if he can keep eating innings AND eating them at a high rate, and get enough wins, he would make a respectable Hall of Famer. There are a lot of years between now and then, however, and he'll have to be amazing and consistent for a long time. After all, if going out there every fifth game and being near the lead in innings pitched most years were enough to make the Hall then Livan Hernandez would be polishing his plaque.

[Balta1701]

It takes something to make the Hall. For most it is statistical dominance over a period of time. For others it is being so good at one thing that those numbers get thrown out. For still others it is changing the game to something it had never been before. To me nothing about Mark stands out as so remarkable, that he deserves to get mentioned with the all time greats.

Which is of course...why so many of us are talking about 300 wins for MB. Unless his performance dramatically improves over the next couple years so that we start talking about Cy Youngs for him, which is possible, but frankly not all that likely...his best shot at it is longevity. Which basically for him means 300 wins.

[RockRaines]

Will 0.0% answer your question?

[Balta1701]

Will 0.0% answer your question?

Incorrectly.

[OilCan]

Hmmmm.......

 

If Mark is pitching for the next 9 yrs and duplicates all of his numbers, across the board, I would say yes, he has a good chance.

 

He won't be a stone-cold lock, but he will have to have several more years of good-great numbers in order to be considered.

[Rowand44]

Mark's my favorite baseball player of all time but he's just not a Hall of Fame pitcher. He's great but he's not an all time great.

Edited July 16, 2008 by Rowand44

[Greg Hibbard]

The bold is false. False from Lefty Gomez to Whitey Ford, from Bob Gibson to Juan Marichal, from Chief Bender to Don Drysdale, Candy Cummings Catfish Hunter to Mordecai Brown to Jim Bunning to Jack Chesbro to Stan Coveleski. And that's just off the top of my head. Hell, a few of these guys have less than 200 wins.

 

As for Andy Pettitte, he is not particularly deserving if the standard is true greatness that very few have ever reached, like Ruth or Walter Johnson, but that is not the standard nor has it ever been since the first election. If you want proof of pitchers who do not belong in the Hall but made it anyway because they were Yankees in the playoffs and very good then you can look at Gomez and Ford.

 

For what it's worth, Pettitte wouldn't be the worst Hall of Famer but that is neither here nor there at the moment.

 

People seem to believe that you have to win 300 and strikeout 3000 or something but that simply is not true.

 

 

Hmm you are very correct sir. I've always been told you had to have 300 wins to get in, and assumed it was true given four man rotations in the 70s and pitchers having 33+ decisions a year.

[whitesoxfan101]

Hmm you are very correct sir. I've always been told you had to have 300 wins to get in, and assumed it was true given four man rotations in the 70s and pitchers having 33+ decisions a year.

 

You have to either have a great mark of longevity like 300 wins (although that might be more like 250 wins with today's pitchers) or you must have a period of half a dozen/several years where you just plain dominate, if you want to make the hall as a pitcher. Mark will never make it for the dominance period, so he has to win 250 games plus or something like that, and I don't think he'll be able to, even though like I said he could pitch until he's 40 IMO.

[RockRaines]

Mark's my favorite baseball player of all time but he's just not a Hall of Fame pitcher. He's great but he's not an all time great.

Nope he's not, and he wont get in. He may be a Sox legend at one point, but thats as far as it will go.

[YASNY]

All this talk about longevity is really a coin flip with Mark. Don Sutton is in, I believe. Tommy John is not. In my opinion, TJ was a better pitcher than Mark. And yes, I'm a big fan of Mark Buehrle. I just don't he'll make the hall.

[RME JICO]

Mark has the ability to become the iron man of pitchers with consecutive seasons with at least 200IP and 10+ wins. He is currently working on his 8th straight season. Maddux had 14 straight seasons with that criteria. So if Buehrle goes 15 years with 200IP and 10+ wins, does that help his case enough if he doesn't reach 300 wins?

[Heads22]

Not to get off track, but Pettite's use of PED's will definitely present some issues.

[Gregory Pratt]

The Veteran's Committee is not going to care.

[YASNY]

The Veteran's Committee is not going to care.

 

Oh I disagree ... I think the veteran's committee will very much care considering it is made up of HOF'ers who did it the right way.

[Gregory Pratt]

Pettitte has been contrite and as far as is publicly known only juiced to get better from injuries. That, more than what Barry Bonds did -- taking everything to double your size and strength -- is going to gain all sorts of leniency over time. And frankly, it's understandable that someone might try to recover a little quicker with the juice, especially for ballplayers who won't want to be hypocrites.

[Soxfest]

MB is going to the HOF IF he buys a ticket!

[Balta1701]

MB is going to the HOF IF he buys a ticket!

The price of a ticket = 200 more wins.

[Kyyle23]

Pettitte has been contrite and as far as is publicly known only juiced to get better from injuries. That, more than what Barry Bonds did -- taking everything to double your size and strength -- is going to gain all sorts of leniency over time. And frankly, it's understandable that someone might try to recover a little quicker with the juice, especially for ballplayers who won't want to be hypocrites.

 

So he says, he also said he got them from his father. And Clemens said he never took them. But Kirk Radomski is now coming out with reciepts that show he gave HGH to McNamee for both Clemens and Petitte. And Bonds still insists he only took flaxseed oil. So who should we believe?

 

Maybe Pettitte didnt want to grow stronger, he just wanted to increase his stamina over the year. Who knows why he took them, maybe he was just an athlete trying to gain a competitive edge. Im not going to take his public apology at complete face value and discount the fact that he took HGH because he said he did it just for a little while and realized it was bad. He knew it was bad from the get go.

[Drew]

The Hall of Fame is for the very best of the best.

 

Buehrle is good, even stellar within his contemporaries of the past 10 years but the best of the best during his career span has included Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez and Johan Santana, just to name a few.

 

Be that as it may, if Don Sutton made it to the Hall of Fame, Buehrle can—if he keeps producing at his current rate through his 30s and into early 40s. Sutton was a guy who didn't have dominant numbers for his time but had a very long and consistently productive career.

 

Big ifs.

 

Me? I'd expect to see his #56 on the outfield wall in Bridgeport one day, anything else above and beyond that is a bonus.

Edited July 17, 2008 by Drew