Bush lifts ban on offshore drilling

[Brian]

For all you people that know what this means, educate the less educated, like me. Will prices drop? How long?

[mr_genius]

For all you people that know what this means, educate the less educated, like me. Will prices drop? How long?

 

There is still a congressional ban on offshore drilling, only the executive ban was lifted. Basically the Democrats say there is already enough land dedicated to drilling, but the oil companies and Republicans claim there isn't enough oil in those places to make it worth drilling. Also, the oil from any new drilling will take years to get into the market place, so there would not be an immediate price drop. Of course, additional supplies of oil would lower costs once those resources were producing.

[lostfan]

JMO, but I would hope that by the time we actually were getting production out of those new oil fields, that we'd have made a fair amount of progress in alternative energy development and not relying so heavily on foreign oil. A total pipe dream, I know.

[NorthSideSox72]

There are a whole series of IF's here, in terms of this having any effect at all on oil prices. To whit...

 

--IF Congress lifts its ban

--IF the states, which have some say, allow it (some probably will, others probably will not, some have laws already on the books for it)

--IF the reserves are present in those states to do any good

--IF the oil companies find the production equation worth pursuing

--IF/WHEN new oil rigs and production systems are built and implemented

 

If all those IF's work out nicely, ideally, then there would be some change in oil prices. Small change, but a change.

 

[Balta1701]

There are a whole series of IF's here, in terms of this having any effect at all on oil prices. To whit...

 

--IF Congress lifts its ban

--IF the states, which have some say, allow it (some probably will, others probably will not, some have laws already on the books for it)

--IF the reserves are present in those states to do any good

--IF the oil companies find the production equation worth pursuing

--IF/WHEN new oil rigs and production systems are built and implemented

 

If all those IF's work out nicely, ideally, then there would be some change in oil prices. Small change, but a change.

You're missing the bigger IF's:

 

If global demand stays at a level capable of being kept up with by global supply

If Global oil supply does not decline by a larger amount than these fields could possibly produce

If there is no major political issue leading to supply disruptions

If the U.S. and the world make no progress towards an oil-free transportation system.

[bmags]

JMO, but I would hope that by the time we actually were getting production out of those new oil fields, that we'd have made a fair amount of progress in alternative energy development and not relying so heavily on foreign oil. A total pipe dream, I know.

 

For real, the fact that drilling has become the number one issue to change gas prices goes to show we still don't have the correct mindset to become more energy secure.

[lostfan]

For real, the fact that drilling has become the number one issue to change gas prices goes to show we still don't have the correct mindset to become more energy secure.

I'm not altogether opposed to drilling, but I'm just afraid that if we keep drilling more they'll have no incentive to do anything else, and there'll just be more talk.

 

T. Boone Pickens, as much as I think he's a douche, is running energy ads that I think are right on the money and I hope people start listening.

[Texsox]

Election fodder. Zzzzzzzzzzzz

[bmags]

I'm not altogether opposed to drilling, but I'm just afraid that if we keep drilling more they'll have no incentive to do anything else, and there'll just be more talk.

 

T. Boone Pickens, as much as I think he's a douche, is running energy ads that I think are right on the money and I hope people start listening.

 

Indeed. Although I would like the justification for the drilling to stop including lies such as there were no oil spills during Katrina and that the Chinese are drilling off of Cuba.

 

Honestly, that is one thing I worry about with offshore drilling. With the amount of Hurricanes hitting that area, how much of an effect will that have in that ecosystem/can that be prevented easily.

[FlaSoxxJim]

For real, the fact that drilling has become the number one issue to change gas prices goes to show we still don't have the correct mindset to become more energy secure.

 

of course we don't. And this is all diversion, because it's much easier to make a token act to lift a drilling ban and then wag a finger at Congress than it is to take proactive steps to ensure that reliance on a carbon economy isn't our undoing.

 

Sure I realize it's easier said and done. But yesterday when I heard W sputter about how much better shape we'd be in if we commenced offshore and ANWR drilling seven years ago I got really incensed. I mean, just think how much better long-term shape we would be in if we'd have gotten serious (= funding the research) about alternate energy three presidencies ago.

[FlaSoxxJim]

Election fodder. Zzzzzzzzzzzz

 

^^^

 

that

[Texsox]

Somewhere William Clinton eating breakfast and hears they lifted the Presidential ban on offshore drilling . . .

 

 

 

 

. . . honey now that the primary is over, the University invited me to take a cruise with their coeds, I think I'll go . . .

[Jenksismyhero]

Two opinions on this:

 

1. Wouldn't the announcement itself (i.e. congress, states, companies all say tomorrow, "ok, we're starting in 30 days") have an effect on the price of oil immediately? Doesn't the price already go up and down by $10 bucks just when someone farts near a major drilling area in the middle east? Wouldn't the possibility of a million barrels a day that they're projecting also mess with the futures speculation, which many believe is the real culprit in the price doubling the last few years?

 

2. I fail to see why drilling for more oil now has anything to do with fixing the energy problem this country faces and figuring out the best way to deal with it. Even if today Congress gives out 50 trillion dollars to find viable alternatives, it would take decades to implement. No matter what we do (even after we waste the next decade or more talking about what we're going to do) it's going to take a long time for anything to actually change. It's unfortunate, but that's the reality. I'd much rather we continue to find ways to fix our current oil problem, which is sucking this country's economy dry, and work on the long term solution at the same time.

 

And I don't see how saying "well it's going to take 5-7 years to make a difference" does anything. We all said that a decade ago, and i'm pretty sure we'd be in a better spot now had we done it then. In a decade are we going to look back and say the same thing?

[NorthSideSox72]

Two opinions on this:

 

1. Wouldn't the announcement itself (i.e. congress, states, companies all say tomorrow, "ok, we're starting in 30 days") have an effect on the price of oil immediately? Doesn't the price already go up and down by $10 bucks just when someone farts near a major drilling area in the middle east? Wouldn't the possibility of a million barrels a day that they're projecting also mess with the futures speculation, which many believe is the real culprit in the price doubling the last few years?

 

2. I fail to see why drilling for more oil now has anything to do with fixing the energy problem this country faces and figuring out the best way to deal with it. Even if today Congress gives out 50 trillion dollars to find viable alternatives, it would take decades to implement. No matter what we do (even after we waste the next decade or more talking about what we're going to do) it's going to take a long time for anything to actually change. It's unfortunate, but that's the reality. I'd much rather we continue to find ways to fix our current oil problem, which is sucking this country's economy dry, and work on the long term solution at the same time.

 

And I don't see how saying "well it's going to take 5-7 years to make a difference" does anything. We all said that a decade ago, and i'm pretty sure we'd be in a better spot now had we done it then. In a decade are we going to look back and say the same thing?

 

1. See the numerous posts that I, SS2K5 and CKnolls have made in here over the years about commodity prices. An announcement like this will have a small reaction effect, which won't last. The time frame for arrival of the new oil from offshore drilling, if all the IF's are even answered in the affirmative, is too far out to have material effect on top month oil contracts.

 

2. It takes less time, and possibly less money (depending on scale), to build solar and wind arrays, then it does an oil platform. So I am not sure why everyone has this idea that offshore drilling will have an immediate effect, but alternatives won't be seen for decades. The alternatives are there and available NOW. And for all the pro-business GOP'ers out there, think of it this way. Which way would you rather see those markets develop? Spending billions on government research, or actually putting money into the real thing and allowing the purveyors of said equipment to grow and improve in the markets? I'll take the latter (though some of the former is fine as well).