Nick Swisher

[RockRaines]

This was on June 2 and I thought was a pretty good article back then. Not sure how the stats are now.

 

 

To begin with, Swisher has been very unlucky on balls in play. His 22.5% line-drive percentage produces an expected BABIP of .345. However, his actual BABIP is a miserable .244. If we adjust his batting line to account for the hits he should have, his line becomes .271/.371/.359.

 

Interestingly, Swisher – always a patient hitter – has seen even more pitches than usual in his plate appearances this year. He has seen a remarkable 4.5 pitches per plate appearance this year – no one else in baseball has seen more than 4.3 per at bat. However, Swisher has not swung at fewer pitches than in the past: this year, he has swung at 38.54% of the pitches he has seen, whereas in his career he has swung at 39.47% of the pitches he has seen. He is actually making contact at a better rate this year than in his career: this season, Swisher has made contact with 80.54% of the pitches he has swung at, as compared to 75.71% in his career.

 

His walk and strikeout rates for this season are in line with his career rates. Thus, Swisher is seeing more pitches but not walking or striking out more often, and he is making contact when he swings more often than he has in his career. Furthermore, when he puts the ball in play, Swisher is hitting the ball hard: his 22.5% line-drive percentage is easily the highest of his career and is tenth highest in the American League. Yet somehow, Swisher is putting up an atrocious batting line.

 

So where is Swisher’s power? He is hitting fly balls at approximately the same rate as throughout his career: this year, 43.5% of his balls in play have been fly balls, as compared to 45.3% in his career. Yet this year, these fly balls are not becoming homers as often as they have in the past. This year, only 6.1% of his fly balls have become homers, as compared to 12.3%, 18% and 14% in the last three years, respectively.

 

A glance at his spray charts, courtesy of mlb.com, shows that Swisher has hit a lot of deep fly balls. Granted, this is a rather crude way of estimating his power, but it does demonstrate that Swisher has not lost his power entirely, despite his low homer total.

 

Already this year Swisher has three fly balls to the warning track (out of 27 fly ball outs) in US Cellular Field. Last season, in McAfee Coliseum, Swisher didn’t have any fly balls caught at the warning track (out of 77 fly ball outs). Swisher has at least ten additional fly balls that have been caught on the warning track in various parks around the American League.

 

Swisher’s underlying stats suggest that he is not any different of a player than he has been throughout his career. He is still extremely patient, and his walk and strikeout rates are in line with his career rates. His actual BABIP is over 100 points below his expected BABIP, leading to his miserable batting average. Although he only has four homers, he has hit a lot of fly balls and has hit at least 13 balls that were caught on the warning track. Thus, it appears that Swisher has been extremely unlucky so far this year, and if he continues to play like he has thus far, his statistics will drastically improve.

 

Swisher is hitting the ball often, hard, and far. Soon enough, his statistics will better reflect his ability.

[Balta1701]

Well he's on pace to hit about the same amount of HR he hit last season, it just appears he isnt hitting as many doubles, which is a byproduct of his BABIP being lower. Basically the doubles he is hitting arent dropping for hits. This probably wouldnt have much to do with steroids, and more to do with the balls he is hitting being caught.

But...that assumes a constant ballpark. Some of the balls he hit for doubles last year in Oakland would probably have left the Cell, so it's entirely possible the reason his HR total is similar is ballpark factor.

[RockRaines]

But...that assumes a constant ballpark. Some of the balls he hit for doubles last year in Oakland would probably have left the Cell, so it's entirely possible the reason his HR total is similar is ballpark factor.

I also think some of the doubles he hit last year are being caught in our smaller OF this season.

[WCSox]

This wasn't meant to be a Konerko VS. Swisher thread, I just can't understand how this guy' s*** doesn't stink. At least Paulie has an injury excuse and the excuse some think he's old.

 

Using that logic, Swisher has the "I can play something other than first base" and the "I'm not a financial albatross" excuses.

 

No doubt that Swish has been a disappointment at the plate this season. But I'd say that his contract and the fact that he's contributing outside of the batter's box has a lot to do with why he's taking less heat from the fans than Paulie.

 

[chitownsportsfan]

Let's see, so far in this thread we've had someone call Mark Grace a "underperforming" 1B (119 career OPS+, career .303 hitter, always known for good defense) had a mostly CF playing player with a 99 OPS+ (Swisher) called "garbage" and that said player is lucky he plays in an era where his skillset is recognized as critically important.

 

Wow, another classic.

 

Swisher has been a major dissapointment no doubt, but the leaps in logic are just astounding.

 

Comparing Uribe to Swisher is laughable. Uribe has proven himself garbage at the plate, and has ate himself out of the range needed to play his best position. Swisher is having a down year, but please don't compare him to a player that cant' get his s*** together enough to get in shape to help the team.

[jenksycat]

Well, Mark McGwire was a stud before juicing. So, I don't see your point that he was great before, and could not have done steroids because of that. And I've heard plenty of stories of people doing steroids in high school with their parents' knowledge. Again, that means nothing to me.

 

Were their parents lives dedicated to baseball in an era before steroids?

[Chisoxfn]

So what about a guy who hits .260 with 35 hrs as opposed to a guy who hits .300 with 10 hrs?

I'd have to evaluate the preference on a ball club based on who the other 8 players on the lineup are as well as what else they do well. Ie, what positions do they play? Does the team already have a lot of pop (if so, than I'd probably take the .300 hitter)? Do they play premium defense, steal bases, draw walks, strike out a lot, etc.

 

Say its a .260 hitter who doesn't draw walks, strikes out a ton and is a pure DH compared to a .300 hitter with 20SB speed who plays good D and gets on base at a .360 type clip (with few strikeouts). I'm going to go with player 2. However, it all depends cause there are certain instances where I'd take the .260 hitter (ie, if a team doesn't have many power hitters). Or if that .260 hitter who hits for massive power also hits a s***load of doubles and gets on base 40% of the time.

[Milkman delivers]

Were their parents lives dedicated to baseball in an era before steroids?

 

Steroids didn't exist in baseball in the 1970's and 1980's? Well, I'd like you to prove that one.

[jenksycat]

Steroids didn't exist in baseball in the 1970's and 1980's? Well, I'd like you to prove that one.

 

guys didn't hit 72 homers and win more cy youngs as they got older.

[witesoxfan]

guys didn't hit 72 homers and win more cy youngs as they got older.

 

it's been reported that steroids were used in the 70s and 80s. There's also more to hitting homers than steroids alone...parks have been constructed to favor the homer more and the ball has been juiced in the past 10-15 years.

 

Nolan Ryan also was throwing no-hitters into his 40s and pitching perfectly effectively...did he use steroids too?

 

Just because there are homers and crazy Cy Young award winners and whatever whatever doesn't mean that steroids weren't being used. You're naive if that's the only reasoning you need.

[Frankensteiner]

.299

 

That is Swisher's slugging % on the road.

 

His home splits at least look respectable: .257/.375/.509/.884 OPS

 

If he were even decent on the road, his season stats would look pretty close to his career norms. Although I was concerned about it at the start of the season, I don't really think Swisher was a juicer. He's just had a very pathetic season on the road, for whatever reason.

[Balta1701]

He's just had a very pathetic season on the road, for whatever reason.

The other chemical they banned, perhaps?

[DABearSoX]

Man, that D at first is such an upgrade

[Friend of Nordhagen]

Let's see, so far in this thread we've had someone call Mark Grace a "underperforming" 1B (119 career OPS+, career .303 hitter, always known for good defense) had a mostly CF playing player with a 99 OPS+ (Swisher) called "garbage" and that said player is lucky he plays in an era where his skillset is recognized as critically important.

 

Wow, another classic.

 

That might've been me. On the right team, Grace would've been a fine player to have (see Diamondbacks, 2001). But not if you were batting him 3rd or 4th, as the Cubs were during the 90's. Take a look at his RBI numbers some time. I know that number is out of favor with stat-types, but his totals were completely lousy for a run-producing position. I'll credit Grace for never taking steroids, but I won't credit him for seemingly never picking up a weight in his life. He looked exactly the same when he left the majors as when he arrived. (His training regimen, so far as I can tell -- and yes, I'm no expert -- was drinking around Wrigley Field and smoking.) But he was a great guy and loved the cameras, so he became "Gracie."

 

[Hatchetman]

i kinda understand now why the giants fans would never believe barry was on steroids. it's never the guy on your team.

[RME JICO]

Steroids didn't exist in baseball in the 1970's and 1980's? Well, I'd like you to prove that one.

Isn't that exactly when it actually became widely available?

[Brian]

As far as power numbers, isn't Nick on pace for his career average? If he is on something and only hitting 20 or so a year, I hate to see him when he is off.

[WCSox]

Isn't that exactly when it actually became widely available?

 

The Steelers were infamous for using 'roids back in the '70s. I don't see why they couldn't have made their way to MLB.

 

[almagest]

I'd have to evaluate the preference on a ball club based on who the other 8 players on the lineup are as well as what else they do well. Ie, what positions do they play? Does the team already have a lot of pop (if so, than I'd probably take the .300 hitter)? Do they play premium defense, steal bases, draw walks, strike out a lot, etc.

 

Say its a .260 hitter who doesn't draw walks, strikes out a ton and is a pure DH compared to a .300 hitter with 20SB speed who plays good D and gets on base at a .360 type clip (with few strikeouts). I'm going to go with player 2. However, it all depends cause there are certain instances where I'd take the .260 hitter (ie, if a team doesn't have many power hitters). Or if that .260 hitter who hits for massive power also hits a s***load of doubles and gets on base 40% of the time.

What about your other scenario? Wouldn't you have to consider all these other variables there, too?

[Dick Allen]

In other news, it looks like Dirty Thirty is no more. He has given 30 to Griffey and will wear #1, which not so coincidentally is his position in many posters' hearts.

[DABearSoX]

wait since he isn't close to his career avg, he must have taken steroids?

[fathom]

In other news, it looks like Dirty Thirty is no more. He has given 30 to Griffey and will wear #1, which not so coincidentally is his position in many posters' hearts.

 

That's an awesome gesture by Swisher, in all seriousness.

[NorthSideSox72]

In other news, it looks like Dirty Thirty is no more. He has given 30 to Griffey and will wear #1, which not so coincidentally is his position in many posters' hearts.

Are you obsessive about Nick or something? You keep inventing this straw man that I have yet to see on this board.

 

[lostfan]

Are you obsessive about Nick or something? You keep inventing this straw man that I have yet to see on this board.

I was about to post this about 75% verbatim.

[rangercal]

That's an awesome gesture by Swisher, in all seriousness.

 

just not awesome for the authentic $200 Swisher #30 Jersey I purchased in May