Jose Contreras Done For Year

[Frankensteiner]

It's unfortunate that this injury didn't happen before the trade deadline. We've been waiting seemingly forever for this guy to return, only to have him end his own season in the second inning of his first game back. That really f***s the White Sox over. I know it's not his fault, but thanks a lot, Jose. You could not have had worse timing if you planned it.

 

Not acquiring another starter before the deadline was still a stupid move. Current injury aside, if Kenny was counting on a 36-to-50 year old pitcher with a bad elbow to be a quality starter the rest of the way he is beyond stupid.

[WCSox]

This is minimum 6 month break, based on his age, I'd say 1 full year also.

 

I seem to remember Mike Brown coming back in less than 12 months a few years back, but he's also a lot younger than Jose.

 

Damn, that sucks. Jose's a warrior. Dude's arm took an absolute beating in Cuba and he still had enough left in the tank to dominate in late '05/early '06.

 

Thanks for everything, Jose. Sox fans will always remember 2005, and it wouldn't have happened without you.

 

Damn. This throws everything totally off. Jose's contract is now unmovable this offseason (any chance they had insurance on his deal of any sort?)

 

I certainly hope that his contract was insured. Kenny's going to get some attrition money from Crede and Cabrera (and Uribe, if he leaves), but it'd be nice to get more from Jose.

 

Yeah, I was really hoping that we'd deal him this winter as well. Oh well.

 

Jarrod Washburn, Paul Byrd, and Greg Maddux are players that have cleared waivers. Washburn and Maddux could end up giving us better production than our Triple A guys, although I don't know about Paul Byrd.

 

I don't know if I'd want to take on Washburn's contract, but Kenny's going to have to sign a veteran arm if he's serious about staying in the race. I don't want them rushing Poreda and I don't consider Broadway or a washed-up Freddy to be viable options. (Although signing Freddy on the cheap for mop-up duty might not be a bad idea.) Not only does Jose's spot have to be permanently filled, but it'd likely that Danks will have to be shut down. I'd like to see somebody like Washburn/Maddux/Byrd in the fifth spot, with Carrasco staying in long-relief for now and starting in Danks' spot next month.

 

[WCSox]

if Kenny was counting on a 36-to-50 year old pitcher with a bad elbow to be a quality starter the rest of the way he is beyond stupid.

 

That same guy was throwing pretty well earlier this season, threw pretty well last night before the injury, and was dominating the AL two years ago. Agreed that Kenny should've gone after another starter at the deadline, but let's not call the guy who got Quentin and Alexei for nothing stupid.

 

[Frankensteiner]

That same guy was throwing pretty well earlier this season, threw pretty well last night before the injury, and was dominating the AL two years ago. Agreed that Kenny should've gone after another starter at the deadline, but let's not call the guy who got Quentin and Alexei for nothing stupid.

 

Key words there. He was a batting practice pitcher the last two months. I am not saying Jose pitching well down the stretch was out of the realm of possibility, but it's certainly not something you can plan on if you're a GM and serious about winning a division title.

[Milkman delivers]

I personally think it'd be the worst move to pick up Washburn. The guy is horrendous. Everything about him says that he'll be even worse playing in Chicago. And if we'd be on the hook for him in 2009, which I think someone said we would, that just makes the deal unbelievably bad. If we are going to pick up a pitcher that has been mentioned (Washburn, Maddux, and Byrd), then the best bet is Byrd, as he has shown that he can have success in the AL. There are still two huge problems with that, too. We'd have to convince the Indians to actually trade him to us, and I'm also pretty sure that he's heavily dependent on his defense, and ours sucks.

[chitownman]

Hey Sox Fans,

 

Just wanted to say sorry to hear about Contreras' injury and hope that you guys bounce back and continue your great season and that maybe just maybe we may be talking about an El series come the end of October.

[fathom]

Key words there. He was a batting practice pitcher the last two months. I am not saying Jose pitching well down the stretch was out of the realm of possibility, but it's certainly not something you can plan on if you're a GM and serious about winning a division title.

 

Agreed...it's likely Carrasco will have a better ERA out of the 5 spot than Contreras would have had.

[WCSox]

I personally think it'd be the worst move to pick up Washburn. The guy is horrendous.

 

Not really. His WHIP is bad this season, but his ERA+ has been around 100 over the previous two seasons. He's about as good as Contreras and costs about the same, so it'd be a lateral move. I don't think that having Washburn as our #5 for a year and a half would be a bad thing, especially since nobody in our minor league system is ML-ready yet and it's imperative that we limit the wear and tear on Danks and Floyd's arms. But I think it'll be a moot point anyway, as the Mariners are reportedly asking for a ton in return.

 

I agree that Byrd is a much better fit, although he's not exactly a tier above Washburn.

 

Edited August 10, 2008 by WCSox

[Frankensteiner]

Not really. His WHIP is bad this season, but his ERA+ has been around 100 over the previous two seasons. He's about as good as Contreras and costs about the same, so it'd be a lateral move. I don't think that having Washburn as our #5 for a year and a half would be a bad thing, especially since nobody in our minor league system is ML-ready yet and it's imperative that we limit the wear and tear on Danks and Floyd's arms. But I think it'll be a moot point anyway, as the Mariners are reportedly asking for a ton in return.

 

I agree that Byrd is a much better fit, although he's not exactly a tier above Washburn.

Byrd not having a $9M contract for next season puts him a tier above Washburn.

[Kyyle23]

Byrd not having a $9M contract for next season puts him a tier above Washburn.

 

I have a feeling KW would work on getting some cash in the deal if he were to work out something for washburn, JMO

[fathom]

I have a feeling KW would work on getting some cash in the deal if he were to work out something for washburn, JMO

 

Which would only increase the package we'd have to give up. Trading Poreda for Washburn would be so idiotic.

[WCSox]

Byrd not having a $9M contract for next season puts him a tier above Washburn.

 

Yeah, it would really suck if the Sox had a veteran 5th starter at their disposal next season. Who in the heck is going to take Jose's place in the rotation next season? Carrasco? Broadway? The optimistic end of Jose's prognosis is a return in late July next year. His career very well may be over.

 

Washburn has averaged an ERA+ of 94 over the past three seasons. That's not exactly terrible and isn't far below Jose's numbers. Given that their salaries are approximately equal and that Jose's is likely insured, Washburn would only cost us a few million. If the Sox are truly going for it this year and next year as well, he'd be a fine #5 starter on our staff. Heck, he's a solid #4 on most teams.

 

The problem with Washburn isn't his contract or that he sucks. It's what the Mariners are reportedly asking for him. Even the free-spending Yankees weren't able to come to terms with them. I imagine that they'd want Poreda, and Kenny will probably (rightfully) refuse.

 

It'll be interesting to see what the Jndians want for Byrd.

 

Edited August 10, 2008 by WCSox

[beck72]

My math was based on the previous poster saying that Byrd was a better alternative to get us to September, when we will be able to call up some degree of help for the bullpen, even if it's just picking up the mop-up situations in blowouts. It seemed that the reasoning was someone like Byrd will keep your bullpen from getting overtaxed before expanded rosters.

 

That puts the person who replaces Jose at making around 4 starts before the rosters are expanded. So the question of how deep a starter can get us isn't negated in September, but it certianly isn't magnified, there will be plenty of pitchers avaible to take the unimportant relief innings, leaving our core relief staff able to be rested and ready in the more important games.

 

The point was that going for a Byrd-like pitcher wasn't going to make a giant difference if your only concern was trying to save the bullpen a little bit, even over the two months, if you don't count September call-ups as having any value in saving our relief staff, you're then talking maybe 16 extra innings pitched over two months. If our staff can't handle that much extra load, they probably aren't going to be the guys to take us all the way to the World Series anyways.

 

I think we're already set in the inning-eater category, taking a shot on bringing up someone who could be better than a #5 starter seems to me to have a better risk/reward return on it, as the risk of over-taxing the bullpen at this stage of the season, based on the performance of 1 starter doesn't seem to be all that great, while the reward of (what appears to be Broadway) coming up and throwing lights out for 2 months is a chance to win it all.

Saving the bullpen wasn't the only reason why I think a vet like Byrd may be a better option than an untested minor leaguer like say Poreda. It's a combination of things. With Danks and Floyd never having thrown this many innings in the bigs-and may not be able to sustain their success- having a 5th SP who can eat innings becomes extra important.

 

Both Ozzie and Kenny have been through the Diaz-Munoz-etc minor league starter carousel and probably won't go through that again. Richard was given a chance for 3 starts and that may be all the risk they're willing to take.

 

Yet going into sept. with a bullpen on fumes from overwork would be a disasterous scenario. Esp. the big three of Dotel, Thornton and Jenks. So that should not be underestimated. Having an unreliable bullpen--putting rookies added to the roster into high pressure situations--because your vets have been worn out during the last month could make all the difference between making the playoffs or not.

[caulfield12]

Yeah, it would really suck if the Sox had a veteran 5th starter at their disposal next season.

 

 

That would be fine...but the time to make that pick-up is in Spring Training, not out of sheer desperation.

 

If the deal is simply taking Washburn's contract, sure. If it's something silly like giving up Fields/Martinez/Silverio and Poreda, then no thanks.

[WCSox]

That would be fine...but the time to make that pick-up is in Spring Training, not out of sheer desperation.

 

If we're going for it this season, the time is now. Danks is going to have to be shut down next month, so we're going to need TWO new starters, not jut one.

 

If the deal is simply taking Washburn's contract, sure. If it's something silly like giving up Fields/Martinez/Silverio and Poreda, then no thanks.

 

If the M's want Poreda, they can keep dreaming.

 

[caulfield12]

If we're going for it this season, the time is now. Danks is going to have to be shut down next month, so we're going to need TWO new starters, not jut one.

 

 

 

If the M's want Poreda, they can keep dreaming.

 

 

Well, if that's definitely the case, I think the White Sox should just limit him to 75 pitches or 5 innings or whatever (after September 1st) and not shut him down.

 

It's hard to imagine that they are just going to sit our best pitcher for the rest of the season in the heat of a pennant race.

[WCSox]

Well, if that's definitely the case, I think the White Sox should just limit him to 75 pitches or 5 innings or whatever (after September 1st) and not shut him down.

 

It's hard to imagine that they are just going to sit our best pitcher for the rest of the season in the heat of a pennant race.

 

They'll shut him down, just like they did last season and like the Tigers shut down Verlander in their pennant race a couple of years ago. Danks only threw 139 innings last season and he's currently at 137 1/3. I don't see them letting him throw more than 160.

 

Kenny saw what the Cubs did to Wood and Prior and isn't going to let that happen to his young studs.

 

[caulfield12]

They'll shut him down, just like they did last season and like the Tigers shut down Verlander in their pennant race a couple of years ago. Danks only threw 139 innings last season and he's currently at 137 1/3. I don't see them letting him throw more than 160.

 

Kenny saw what the Cubs did to Wood and Prior and isn't going to let that happen to his young studs.

 

 

I'm not so sure...Danks is closer to Buehrle than he is to being a pure power (see Verlander/Prior), high effort type of pitcher.

 

One of the reasons he was shut down was because KW wanted to preserve his confidence I think, and it has definitely paid dividends this season. Blackburn and Perkins are in similar situations in Minnesota, and there hasn't been much talk of shutting either one of those guys down that I've heard.

 

I guess, if it comes down to it, they could go to a six man rotation if they could acquire another starter to protect Danks and Floyd.

Edited August 10, 2008 by caulfield12

[WCSox]

I'm not so sure...Danks is closer to Buehrle than he is to being a pure power (see Verlander/Prior), high effort type of pitcher.

 

Unless you're talking about Jamie Moyer or a knuckleballer, it doesn't really matter. And Danks routinely throws 91-93, which isn't exactly Mark Buehrle territory.

 

One of the reasons he was shut down was because KW wanted to preserve his confidence I think, and it has definitely paid dividends this season. Blackburn and Perkins are in similar situations in Minnesota, and there hasn't been much talk of shutting either one of those guys down that I've heard.

 

I guess, if it comes down to it, they could go to a six man rotation if they could acquire another starter to protect Danks and Floyd.

 

Blackburn and Perkins are three and two years older than Danks, respectively, and both have more minor league innings on their arms.

 

Danks has had a pretty light workload over the years...

 

2003: 26 IP (age 18)

2004: 105 IP

2005: 156 IP

2006: 140 IP

2007: 139 IP (age 22)

 

You don't let a 23-year-old throw 200 innings - plus more innings in the playoffs - with that history. Verlander was 22 back in '06 and, despite pitching in college, was limited to 186 innings in '06. One could argue that even that was too much, given his loss in velocity and general struggles this year.

Edited August 10, 2008 by WCSox

[joeynach]

Well look on the bright side on losing Jose. It will force the Sox hand to acquire another starting pitcher, perhaps not for 08, but defiantly for 09. That means we will probably get someone younger and more talented that isn't a liability in holding runners on or covering 1st base. Im not happy Contreras is gone, but sometimes this stuff and turn out to be a blessing in disguise if it forces KW to do what he does, go out there get creative in bring in someone we thought we weren't going to get. Could work out well for 2009.