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Predict the last 31


southsider2k5

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Agree that it is going to come down to the last series of the season. Hopefully we can take care of business in the twinkie dome first but we all know how well we play there...

 

 

Sox 94-68 Div

Twins 93-69 WC

Edited by DABearSoX
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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 26, 2008 -> 08:01 AM)
For example, here is what I fear...

 

Twins 93-69

White Sox 92-70 1GB

I fear this:

 

Twins 93-69 DIV

Red Sox 93-69 WC

White Sox 92-70 1GB

 

However, the Twins are starting to show signs of slowing down (lost 3 straight) and they still have a bunch left on a long road trip. If we are about 3 games up after their road trip, we will be in a pretty good spot.

 

For us, the 3 game set at Boston this weekend and the last 3 game set at Minnesota seem to be the make or break series for us. Boston has a ton of injury issues (Beckett, Drew, Lowell, Wakefield), which might allow the WC to come out of the Central.

 

I believe if we get into the playoffs, we have a great shot to make it out of the AL. Our 4-man rotation, 3-4-5 batters, and Closer are hard to beat.

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QUOTE (RME JICO @ Aug 26, 2008 -> 10:30 AM)
I fear this:

 

Twins 93-69 DIV

Red Sox 93-69 WC

White Sox 92-70 1GB

 

However, the Twins are starting to show signs of slowing down (lost 3 straight) and they still have a bunch left on a long road trip. If we are about 3 games up after their road trip, we will be in a pretty good spot.

 

For us, the 3 game set at Boston this weekend and the last 3 game set at Minnesota seem to be the make or break series for us. Boston has a ton of injury issues (Beckett, Drew, Lowell, Wakefield), which might allow the WC to come out of the Central.

 

I believe if we get into the playoffs, we have a great shot to make it out of the AL. Our 4-man rotation, 3-4-5 batters, and Closer are hard to beat.

 

We have GOT to get Linebrink back soon, or find ANYONE in the pen who can give us a 6th and/or 7th inning.

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QUOTE (RME JICO @ Aug 26, 2008 -> 10:30 AM)
I fear this:

 

Twins 93-69 DIV

Red Sox 93-69 WC

White Sox 92-70 1GB

 

However, the Twins are starting to show signs of slowing down (lost 3 straight) and they still have a bunch left on a long road trip. If we are about 3 games up after their road trip, we will be in a pretty good spot.

 

For us, the 3 game set at Boston this weekend and the last 3 game set at Minnesota seem to be the make or break series for us. Boston has a ton of injury issues (Beckett, Drew, Lowell, Wakefield), which might allow the WC to come out of the Central.

 

I believe if we get into the playoffs, we have a great shot to make it out of the AL. Our 4-man rotation, 3-4-5 batters, and Closer are hard to beat.

 

but the Sox always do the opposite of what should happen, eg the Red Sox injuries will somehow backfire on us, believe me I wish this wasn't the case and we could count on logic, like the Twins road trip being their demise, but history just seems to show otherwise.

 

I agree with the number up top, Twinks top us by an asshair and the Bozo's somehow eek in there.

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I hate to keep the negativity going, but I see the Sox going 16-15 in the last 31 games. We play a red hot Cleveland team 6 times, not going 17 games with teams over .500. I see the Twins going 19-12 and the Red Sox going 17-15.

 

Twins 93-69

Red Sox 92-70

White Sox 91-71

 

That being said, if the Sox get hot I could see them winning the division and passing Boston as well. No matter what we have to say infront of either Boston or Minnesota and we'll be fine.

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I think this is going to come down to one main issue: bullpen, bullpen, bullpen. Depending on how many more days Linebrink is out and how many more wobbly performances (or outright losses) they bring, our season is going to come down to this. We've lucked out with our starters (and missing 5th starter) in that we've had the offense to keep us in it this far. But when those home run bats aren't swinging and we have a thin lead and in comes the bullpen...

 

Our other huge gaping deficit (amongst the many, but that's another thread) is men stranded on base. I'm not aware if there's a stat for that, but holy crap do we leave a lot of guys there, bases loaded, and not bat them in. I wonder if we're one of the league leaders in that. Last night's mini-game was a perfect example.

 

I'm always going to assume in a non-2005 year that Minnesota gets it, based on history. But we've made it this far, so who knows?

 

I do predict however that it's division or nothing for us; I can't see us getting the WC over Boston.

Edited by LVSoxFan
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QUOTE (stretchstretch @ Aug 26, 2008 -> 10:40 AM)
but the Sox always do the opposite of what should happen, eg the Red Sox injuries will somehow backfire on us, believe me I wish this wasn't the case and we could count on logic, like the Twins road trip being their demise, but history just seems to show otherwise.

 

I agree with the number up top, Twinks top us by an asshair and the Bozo's somehow eek in there.

 

the Twins are 5-6 on the road in August; you can't ask for anything more than that. The White Sox are also 15-8 in the month of August, not counting the makeup game from last night, and are above .500 on the road in August.

 

Why can't you count on logic?

 

The only stretch at all that I fear the rest of the way is the 10-game roadtrip that involves 4 in New York, 3 in KC, and 3 in Minny, but even that is diminished because Minnesota will be finishing up a 10-game roadtrip at the conclusion of the KC series.

 

Sox win 93 games and the division by 2. Don't give a s*** what Minny or Boston do.

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QUOTE (joesaiditstrue @ Aug 26, 2008 -> 12:16 PM)
if we win just 1 game in the twink-dome, we'll have only lost 1 game in the standings to them, which means if we enter that series with a 1 game lead, we could lose two of three and still be tied for first heading into cleveland

 

 

Isnt the Minnesota series the very last series of the year?

 

edit: my bad, I thought we concluded the season at Minnesota.

 

 

Why must we always open and close the season with cleveland?

Edited by kyyle23
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QUOTE (joesaiditstrue @ Aug 26, 2008 -> 01:16 PM)
if we win just 1 game in the twink-dome, we'll have only lost 1 game in the standings to them, which means if we enter that series with a 1 game lead, we could lose two of three and still be tied for first heading into cleveland

I hope we are 2 games up (at least) going into that key series. If so all we would have to do is win 1 out of 3 to stay 1 game ahead going into that final series at home vs Cleveland. Minny finishes the year off at home vs KC. Did you guys know in the entire month of August no team has had more than a 1 game lead? That is crazy.... What a crazy race this is going to continue to be.

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QUOTE (kyyle23 @ Aug 26, 2008 -> 01:21 PM)
Isnt the Minnesota series the very last series of the year?

 

Tue, Sep 23 @ Minnesota

Wed, Sep 24 @ Minnesota

Thu, Sep 25 @ Minnesota

Fri, Sep 26 Cleveland

Sat, Sep 27 Cleveland

Sun, Sep 28 Cleveland

 

nah, but i didnt realize the series vs cleveland was at the cell, though if i recall.. the tribe hits pretty well in our park.

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I don't have a strong feeling either way. For the last couple of months, the division has been up for grabs and neither the Twins or the Sox have been able to get any breathing room. Whatever happens, I think both teams would be well-prepared (like in 2005) for hitting the playoffs running. Teams like Anaheim or the 2001 Mariners have typically had more difficult times "turning it on" when they've had comfortable division leads for months and nothing really to play for but home field advantage.

 

The White Sox obviously have the best chance to go far in the playoffs if the timing is right, but it's hard to argue against the Twins from a logic standpoint, because they always seem to defy it.

 

Even when the Twins have been losing recently, their pitching has almost always kept them in games or given the bullpen the lead. Thankfully, our starting pitching has picked it up a notch or two the last couple of weeks. Things were looking bleak...like 2nd half 2006 all over again.

 

It has been a fun ride so far this season, we'll just have to wait and see what happens. The skeptic in me says Twins, but I'll try to remain optimistic. However, listening to Coop talk about Linebrink on the pre-game show yesterday, I just don't get the feeling there is a tremendous amount of confidence he can make it back and be an effective/reliable contributor. Which means we're left relying on Carrasco and hoping Dotel can get the ship righted and that Thornton and Jenks don't break down from overuse the final month. You know Ozzie will be tempted to start going to Jenks earlier and earlier. Fortunately, the Twins have the same exact problems with Cain, Guerrier, Reyes and Guardado.

Edited by caulfield12
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QUOTE (joesaiditstrue @ Aug 26, 2008 -> 12:16 PM)
if we win just 1 game in the twink-dome, we'll have only lost 1 game in the standings to them, which means if we enter that series with a 1 game lead, we could lose two of three and still be tied for first heading into cleveland

Tied by percentage, but they get the tiebreaker then.

 

We are up in the season series 8-7. So 1-2 puts us both at 9-9 for the season series. The next tie breaker is against Divisional opponents where we are both currently tied at 36-21. That means if they beat us 2 of 3, they are ahead by the next tie breaker with a 38-22 record compared to our 37-23 record.

 

Each team has a total of 15 divisional games left, so that series will more than likely settle it. The Sox need to win that series to guarantee themselves the first tiebreaker.

Edited by RME JICO
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QUOTE (RME JICO @ Aug 26, 2008 -> 01:29 PM)
Tied by percentage, but they get the tiebreaker then.

 

We are up in the season series 8-7. So 1-2 puts us both at 9-9 for the season series. The next tie breaker is against Divisional opponents where we are both currently tied at 36-21. That means if they beat us 2 of 3, they are ahead by the next tie breaker with a 38-22 record compared to our 37-23 record.

 

Each team has a total of 15 divisional games left, so that series will more than likely settle it. The Sox need to win that series to guarantee themselves the first tiebreaker.

 

tied by percentage? huh? lol

 

i was under the assumption that we will have played the same amount of games at that point, as the twins. if that's the case:

 

3 game series vs twins, 1 game lead. lose 2 of 3:

 

game 1 win = 2 game lead

game 2 loss = 1 game lead

game 3 loss = tied for first

 

we would have the same WPCT as the twins.

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Just looking at the September schedules and by the looks of things, Boston has the hardest of the 3. Here are the remaining schedules:

 

Sox:

2 @ Baltamore

3 @ Boston

3 @ Cleveland

3 vs LA Angels

4 vs Toronto

3 vs Detroit

4 @ New York

3 @ KC

3 @ Minny

3 vs Cleveland

 

Minny:

2 @ Seattle

4 @ Oakland

3 @ Toronto

3 vs Detroit

3 vs KC

3 @ Baltamore

3 @ Cleveland

4 @ Tampa

3 vs Sox

3 vs KC

 

Boston:

3 @ New York

3 vs Chicago

3 vs Baltamore

3 @ Texas

3 vs Tampa

3 vs Toronto

3 @ Tampa

3 @ Toronto

4 vs Cleveland

3 vs New York

 

Italics = semi tough

Bold = very tough

 

After the crazy road trip the Twins schedule eases down a lot. So paying attention to Boston makes a lot of sense as we could definitley make the wildcard if the Twins go on another winning rampage.

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QUOTE (joesaiditstrue @ Aug 26, 2008 -> 12:22 PM)
Tue, Sep 23 @ Minnesota

Wed, Sep 24 @ Minnesota

Thu, Sep 25 @ Minnesota

Fri, Sep 26 Cleveland

Sat, Sep 27 Cleveland

Sun, Sep 28 Cleveland

 

nah, but i didnt realize the series vs cleveland was at the cell, though if i recall.. the tribe hits pretty well in our park.

 

I hear the Sox hit well there too

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