Play McCain's Campaign Manager

[Rex Kickass]

You're running McCain's campaign. There's just eight weeks to go! You need to get to 270 Electoral Votes to win this election, and most polls are telling you that 165 of the 287 Electoral Votes the Republicans won in 2004 are relatively secure. Lots of states are threatening to turn blue, and Iowa and New Mexico look like they officially will.

 

In the mean time: the following states are within the statistical margin of error.

 

New Hampshire (4 electoral votes and the only state that could flip Red)

 

Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota (3 electoral votes each)

Nevada and Colorado (5 electoral votes each)

Indiana (11 electoral votes)

Virginia (13 electoral votes)

North Carolina (15 electoral votes)

Ohio (20 electoral votes)

Florida (27 electoral votes)

 

As McCain's campaign manager: where do you put your resources?

[clyons]

That list almost writes itself according to electoral magnitude. Ohio first (historically its an absolute must have for the GOP, and I think he will get it). Then the southern states listed, with an obvious emphasis on FL. I think IN is pretty safe, I would skip that in favor of CO and NV.

[DABearSoX]

6 oxen

25 sets of clothes

500 bullets

1000 pounds of food

2 wagon wheel

1 wagon axel

1 wagon tongue

[HuskyCaucasian]

You're running McCain's campaign. There's just eight weeks to go! You need to get to 270 Electoral Votes to win this election, and most polls are telling you that 165 of the 287 Electoral Votes the Republicans won in 2004 are relatively secure. Lots of states are threatening to turn blue, and Iowa and New Mexico look like they officially will.

 

In the mean time: the following states are within the statistical margin of error.

 

New Hampshire (4 electoral votes and the only state that could flip Red)

 

Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota (3 electoral votes each)

Nevada and Colorado (5 electoral votes each)

Indiana (11 electoral votes)

Virginia (13 electoral votes)

North Carolina (15 electoral votes)

Ohio (20 electoral votes)

Florida (27 electoral votes)

 

As McCain's campaign manager: where do you put your resources?

 

Ohio and Virginia. Simple as that, if he looses either of those, he's as good as done. Based on all the recent polling, those starts are literally a tie. VA more than Ohio. The most recent VA polls dont show a "margin or error" tie, they show an ACTUAL tie. Ohio is similar with polls showing each with a small lead. So, a poll average tie.

 

Below is a map of what i would call the "locked" states. They are leaning enough in one direction to call it for them now baring a major shift. As you'll notice by the bars on the bottom, all Obama would need to lock a win is Ohio. If not Ohio, then VA and CO (Co will most likely go to him anyways). He can also win with a VA and NH combo.

 

 

[Jenksismyhero]

6 oxen

25 sets of clothes

500 bullets

1000 pounds of food

2 wagon wheel

1 wagon axel

1 wagon tongue

 

I'd recommend 2 wagon tongues - those things always break.

[GoSox05]

Virginia and New Mexico or Colorado. If he can carry those states, he can lose Florida and Ohio. Those states have killed Democrats the last two elections.

 

I think Virginia is getting ready to flip. Mark Warner is up big there, it could be a sign of the change.

Edited September 5, 2008 by GoSox05

[DukeNukeEm]

 

This is a projection, not a snapshot. F38 is probably the best political blog on the planet.

[HuskyCaucasian]

I think Virginia is getting ready to flip.

To take that turn, it will literally be a flip of the coin at this point. It's so tight there is not even a way to see either pulling away by more than 3 points.

[DukeNukeEm]

Looking at the scenarios and electoral maps, and then taking into account the massive advantage Obama has in money there is really only one approach for McCain if he wants to win. He has to go national. In small contests like Iowa (which is about as blue as IL at this point, but for argument's sake) Obama can just pulverize McCain because he has much more money and much better ground organization. And if there's one thing Axelrod has proven to be pretty good at it's managing and organizing their resources to take the opponent head on in smaller contests. If Obama spreads out John McCain he can essentially destroy the GOP through attrition.

 

McCain counters that by pooling everything he has and taking on everything Obama has. The odds are certainly not in McCain's favor, but it's a lot easier to score one big upset than the 13 or so he'll need right now. If McCain can start winning nationally that gives him a bounce everywhere and maybe forces Obama to spend money in states like Wisconsin and Iowa that he shouldn't really have to.

Edited September 5, 2008 by DukeNukeEm

[DukeNukeEm]

To take that turn, it will literally be a flip of the coin at this point. It's so tight there is not even a way to see either pulling away by more than 3 points.

3 points? Virginia will be 49 to 50 and probably somewhere in between.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Looking at the scenarios and electoral maps, and then taking into account the massive advantage Obama has in money there is really only one approach for McCain if he wants to win. He has to go national.

The only way McCain can afford to go nation is go balls to the wall negative and get the media into it like he did a month or so ago.

And I'm not talking "Obama's gonna to raise taxes" negative. I'm talkin Resko, Wright, and Ayres attacks coming directly from the RNC and McCain.

[Balta1701]

That list almost writes itself according to electoral magnitude. Ohio first (historically its an absolute must have for the GOP, and I think he will get it). Then the southern states listed, with an obvious emphasis on FL. I think IN is pretty safe, I would skip that in favor of CO and NV.

Poll yesterday had Indiana at 45-43 McCain. That's exactly the kind of mistake that could cost you. Deciding that a state that the data tells you is close is actually safe for historic reasons, and then having the guy from the state next door eek out a win.

[DukeNukeEm]

Poll yesterday had Indiana at 45-43 McCain. That's exactly the kind of mistake that could cost you. Deciding that a state that the data tells you is close is actually safe for historic reasons, and then having the guy from the state next door eek out a win.

Dont forget Rudy Clay's hanky panky.

[DukeNukeEm]

The only way McCain can afford to go nation is go balls to the wall negative and get the media into it like he did a month or so ago.

And I'm not talking "Obama's gonna to raise taxes" negative. I'm talkin Resko, Wright, and Ayres attacks coming directly from the RNC and McCain.

Oh, its coming. We shook the hornets nest a little bit going after Palin and they're all worked up.

[Balta1701]

I'm talkin Resko, Wright, and Ayres attacks coming directly from the RNC and McCain.

Please, let then go with that junk. It'll work just as well as the 2004 stuff about whether or not Bush completed his military service in the 60's.

[kapkomet]

Please, let then go with that junk. It'll work just as well as the 2004 stuff about whether or not Bush completed his military service in the 60's.

Pretty much, and they know it. They are not going to attack that stuff, at least the ones with any sense. I say that generally, McCain will win on the issues, if he can force RSO to defend his plans on things.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

Pretty much, and they know it. They are not going to attack that stuff, at least the ones with any sense.

if I can find the link, there was a report I read last week that the RNC is planning to really push the "dubious connections" with a series of ads, talking points, and press conferences.

 

Found It:

Hoping to shift the media gaze from Sarah Palin, Republicans plan to launch an aggressive push into Barack Obama's background and controversial associations, according to an RNC official.

 

The move indicates just how much the GOP wants to tag Obama on character instead of mere policy, a line of attack they feel emboldened to pursue after Democrat attacks on the number of homes the McCain's own and the intense media scrutiny into the background of Palin.

 

According to an RNC official, they'll "press the Obama campaign to follow through on his promises of transparency."

 

This means questions about his years as a state senator, but more importantly his ties to convicted felon and Chicago wheeler-dealer Tony Rezko and the former domestic terrorist William Ayers.

 

Republicans are still holding back on going after Obama on his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, but third-party groups may target this, the most politically explosive element of the Democrat's biography.

 

The GOP will launch a wave of press releases, press conferences and talking points fed into the conservative echo chamber meant to highlight questions about Obama's character.

Edited September 5, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[Balta1701]

Pretty much, and they know it. They are not going to attack that stuff, at least the ones with any sense. I say that generally, McCain will win on the issues, if he can force RSO to defend his plans on things.

I don't think they think they can win with that either. Their own campaign manager said a day or two ago (I can't remember exactly when because ST was on the Fritz yesterday and so I didn't have to cite it) that they didn't think this was going to be a contest of issues.

 

If it's a contest of issues, BO is going to win. He knows his stuff better than McCain, he actually seems to care when talking about detailed issues unlike the elder Senator, he's released significantly more policy details than McCain on dozens of issues, and the issues McCain wants to focus on (Drill here Drill now!) are pretty silly and minor things that won't actually accomplish much. Oh, and considering McCain is basically running on Bush's issues platform, with the militarism multiplied by a factor of 2 or 3, that would just leave him in trouble.

 

I don't think that they can win by dragging up attacks from Feb that everyone is already annoyed with, I don't think they're going to win a fight on issues. But they might have a shot if they can go after him personally. With the celebrity crap again. Mocking his work as a community organizer. All the stuff we've heard for the last month; that's their best shot.

[bmags]

Okay, I'm McCain's campaign manager, first order of duty:

 

NEVER LET HIM SPEAK IN FRONT OF A SCREEN THAT FRAMES HIM IN GREEN AGAIN!

 

Hire me.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Okay, I'm McCain's campaign manager, first order of duty:

 

NEVER LET HIM SPEAK IN FRONT OF A SCREEN THAT FRAMES HIM IN GREEN AGAIN!

 

Hire me.

or a very easily chroma keyed blue.

[bmags]

actually, I just will not let McCain do a speech from here on out.

[Balta1701]

actually, I just will not let McCain do a speech from here on out.

Ok, here's our plan. Senator McCain only does town hall formats and press appearances. Governor Palin gives all the written speeches.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Ok, here's our plan. Senator McCain only does town hall formats and press appearances. Governor Palin gives all the written speeches.

but no press conferance. media cant talk to her. might ask her a hard foreign policy question she doesnt know.

[whitesoxfan101]

I think McCain has a little more work to do in the electoral college than Obama. Obama needs to go out west and steal a couple spots, as well as win a couple battleground states, and he's in good shape. On the other side, McCain needs to hold on to Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana. I actually think Obama's best chances are in North Carolina and Virginia, so in that sense both parties need to look there.

[Rex Kickass]

If I was McCain's campaign, I would focus my resources in Florida, Virginia and Ohio. All three states are in danger of flipping blue, and McCain needs every last one of them.

 

With Iowa and New Mexico looking more and more like Obama country (convention bounces not withstanding), a loss of any of these states without an unexpected pickup means an Obama presidency.

 

On a secondary resource level, I'm looking at Indiana, New Hampshire and Colorado. New Hampshire is the only blue state I really feel that has a chance of swinging Red. Indiana and Colorado are both in danger, and they shouldn't be. Good ground game in either state could make them safe.