Rex Kickass Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 You're running Obama's campaign. There's just eight weeks to go! You need to get to 270 Electoral Votes to win this election, and most polls are telling you that 247 of the 251 Electoral Votes the Democrats won in 2004 are relatively secure. Only New Hampshire's four electoral votes could flip back to John McCain. In the mean time: the following states are within the statistical margin of error. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes and the only state that could flip Red) Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota (3 electoral votes each) Nevada and Colorado (5 electoral votes each) Indiana (11 electoral votes) Virginia (13 electoral votes) North Carolina (15 electoral votes) Ohio (20 electoral votes) Florida (27 electoral votes) As Obama's campaign manager: where do you put your resources? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lostfan Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 I accidentally deleted the first thread because I am a tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 QUOTE (Rex Kicka** @ Sep 5, 2008 -> 08:15 AM) As Obama's campaign manager: where do you put your resources? In to raising more resources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 (edited) Go west young man. Go West. Obviously he needs to pay close attention to Ohio and VA, but CO, NM, and NV are a really nice "back up". Based on my projections in the other thread, if Obama looses OH and VA, he can still win if he can get NV, CO, and NM. McCain needs to defend OH and VA and that opens up the west to Obama. Edited September 5, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Sep 5, 2008 -> 08:14 AM) Go west young man. Go West. Obviously he needs to pay close attention to Ohio and VA, but CO, NM, and NV are a really nice "back up". Based on my projections in the other thread, if Obama looses OH and VA, he can still win if he can get NV, CO, and NM. Just win Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DukeNukeEm Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 I accidentally deleted the first thread because I am a tool. f*** the what did you do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 5, 2008 -> 10:14 AM) Just win Ohio. Not saying he shouldn't try. But you need to broaden the base to be safe. McCain cant afford to try to win CO and NM. He just needs to defend them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 QUOTE (DukeNukeEm @ Sep 5, 2008 -> 10:15 AM) f*** the what did you do? database error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DukeNukeEm Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 Just win Ohio. Or just win CO, VA and IA (one of which is already in the bag) and don't put so much emphasis on that unpredictable mess of a state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lostfan Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 QUOTE (DukeNukeEm @ Sep 5, 2008 -> 12:15 PM) f*** the what did you do? He had one for McCain and one for Obama, I thought it was a DP and I deleted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox_Sonix Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 QUOTE (DukeNukeEm @ Sep 5, 2008 -> 12:17 PM) Or just win CO, VA and IA (one of which is already in the bag) and don't put so much emphasis on that unpredictable mess of a state. Question for the one's who know more than me: Is it pretty much a situation where if McCain wins OH, VA, FL he will win and if Obama wins one of the three he will win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DukeNukeEm Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 Question for the one's who know more than me: Is it pretty much a situation where if McCain wins OH, VA, FL he will win and if Obama wins one of the three he will win? Probably, unless PA flips which I doubt will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ Sep 5, 2008 -> 05:19 PM) Question for the one's who know more than me: Is it pretty much a situation where if McCain wins OH, VA, FL he will win and if Obama wins one of the three he will win? Kind of. But that's getting too caught up in 2000 and 2004 electoral maps. Now with VA close to flipping Blue and North Carolina, I'd say, in play, Michigan in play, indiana in play all these states are in play now, so we are possibly going to see a brand new electoral map. There's a couple factors we don't know: 1)How high African American turn out will be 2)How high youth turnout will be 3)How much Bob Barr will affect McCain in the south 4)How much Obama's strategy of ground game as opposed to mass ad game will work If all of those work in Obama's favor, we are looking at an electoral shift, where he can even lose in ohio and FL and it won't matter. Small states matter. In 2000, if Gore had kept his resources in NH instead of moving them to try and grab florida, he could've won new hampshire and taken the election. States like Wyoming going blue now, they make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitesoxfan101 Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 (edited) QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 5, 2008 -> 12:00 PM) so we are possibly going to see a brand new electoral map. Small states matter. In 2000, if Gore had kept his resources in NH instead of moving them to try and grab florida, he could've won new hampshire and taken the election. States like Wyoming going blue now, they make a big difference. Both of these points are very good IMO. I think the campaigning that both parties will have to do will be in more areas that in the past because I think in the end, even with the polls where they are, this is a unique election. You have a so called "maverick" with a reputation as a moderate in the GOP going against a very young and very to the left democrat. Plus, you have in play the fascinating VP candidates on both sides in Biden and Palin. To be specific, I would agree with athomeboy's thought that Obama needs to go west. The west helped him beat Clinton, and he's going to need some help from it again to beat McCain IMO. Also, small states will indeed matter because this is probably going to be a close election so every point in the electoral college is huge. Edited September 5, 2008 by whitesoxfan101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ Sep 5, 2008 -> 11:19 AM) Question for the one's who know more than me: Is it pretty much a situation where if McCain wins OH, VA, FL he will win and if Obama wins one of the three he will win? Want to have some fun? Check out 270towin.com. It's a great way to play with the electoral map. Very interactive. It's how I do my projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 5, 2008 -> 12:00 PM) 3)How much Bob Barr will affect McCain in the south Barr needed to be on the national scene by now. I think it's too late for him. He might hold McCain down a few points to where Obama can slip through in say VA or NC. But in general, he wont be a huge mover and shaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DukeNukeEm Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 Small states matter. In 2000, if Gore had kept his resources in NH instead of moving them to try and grab florida, he could've won new hampshire and taken the election. States like Wyoming going blue now, they make a big difference. McCain is up by 37.5% in Wyoming polls, I agree with what you're saying but thats a bad example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 QUOTE (DukeNukeEm @ Sep 5, 2008 -> 08:21 PM) McCain is up by 37.5% in Wyoming polls, I agree with what you're saying but thats a bad example. You're correct, I meant to say Montana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Kickass Posted September 7, 2008 Author Share Posted September 7, 2008 If I was on the Obama campaign right now, I'd be ignoring Sarah Palin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 QUOTE (Rex Kicka** @ Sep 7, 2008 -> 09:31 AM) If I was on the Obama campaign right now, I'd be ignoring Sarah Palin. Agreed. She'll self destruct all on her own. If they force it, then it will be "an attack". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Kickass Posted September 7, 2008 Author Share Posted September 7, 2008 QUOTE (kapkomet @ Sep 7, 2008 -> 11:14 AM) Agreed. She'll self destruct all on her own. If they force it, then it will be "an attack". Ultimately, people don't pull the level for the VP on the ticket anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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