Who do you think will win the November election?

[NorthSideSox72]

I think it will be fun to have this poll now... another one after the debates... and one more just before the election. Just to see how people see it happening.

 

Remember, this isn't who you are rooting for necessarily - its who you think will actually win.

 

[Texsox]

Some will mock me, but I truly believe we have two good to excellent candidates. Both parties nominated the candidates I hoped they would. Both candidates have demonstrated a commitment to the public good throughout their careers. They both, IMNSHO, fumbled their VP selections in attempts to "balance". So I am, as Kap would say, /popping some corn / and waiting for the show.

[NorthSideSox72]

Some will mock me, but I truly believe we have two good to excellent candidates. Both parties nominated the candidates I hoped they would. Both candidates have demonstrated a commitment to the public good throughout their careers. They both, IMNSHO, fumbled their VP selections in attempts to "balance". So I am, as Kap would say, /popping some corn / and waiting for the show.

I've said before, I don't think we've had this good a choice in my lifetime. Neither are perfect, but they are both better than most we've seen.

 

[Kyyle23]

This poll is in danger of a Athomeboy poll flooding

[NorthSideSox72]

NO SPAMMING OR CHEERLEADING IN THIS THREAD.

 

[DABearSoX]

If we get enough responses do you think we can get on MSNBC?

[GoSox05]

I think it's going to be a super close election. I think it will be a late night on election day.

 

 

[DBAHO]

McCain / Palin have to be the favorites right now.

 

However, I think the "shine" will wear off for Palin eventually, and if Obama can do well in the debates (which is going to be crucial for him), I think he'll just win.

 

If he can't, McCain / Palin will win.

[Rex Kickass]

It's 50 state elections. Remember that.

 

Obama looks to carry every Kerry state from 2004.

 

251 votes means 20 more electoral votes needed to be peeled off to take the Presidency.

 

He looks like he'll pick up Iowa which is 7 votes. It leaves 13 votes needed to win.

 

Any of the following battleground combinations will work:

 

OH

 

FL

 

VA

 

CO+NM Or NV Or IN

 

IN+NM Or NV

 

NM+NV+SD

 

He's got a lot of outs, and I think he has the edge in Colorado and New Mexico.

 

[kapkomet]

I do think McCain's going to peel a couple off of "old Kerry" states... so that really will throw it in the balance.

[Rex Kickass]

I do think McCain's going to peel a couple off of "old Kerry" states... so that really will throw it in the balance.

 

Just curious? Which ones?

 

I think he really only has a shot in Michigan and New Hampshire... And I just don't see those spots flipping.

[CanOfCorn]

I know there's no cheerleading, but I hope Obama/Biden wins...

 

That being said...I have a bad feeling about it, so I voted (in this poll ONLY) for McCain/Palin...and it hurts.

[whitesoxfan101]

This election confuses me, and figuring out what I think is almost a daily process. In ways, I look at both tickets and feel unhappy because there are a lot of things (the vast majority) on them I don't like politically. But at the same time, I think the people on both tickets are actually genuine good people, so I am hoping that regardless of who wins, that shines through and the winner does a good job. As for who wins, I have no idea. It's going to be very close, and it's difficult to guess.

Edited September 12, 2008 by whitesoxfan101

[StrangeSox]

I'm thinking McCain is going to carry this momentum through to a close victory. The campaigns are getting nasty, and nobody does nasty politics better than the GOP.

[NorthSideSox72]

Just curious? Which ones?

 

I think he really only has a shot in Michigan and New Hampshire... And I just don't see those spots flipping.

I think McCain takes MI. But I think Obama takes NM, CO, and some other western states. Obama takes it by a hair, with the electoral map showing some shifts as noted.

 

[Jenksismyhero]

I think McCain will ulitmately pull it out. GOP grassroots is simply better than the DEMS, even if Obama has revitalized the DEM base. I think it'll be really close though. I just can't get over the fact that even after Obama had 3-4 months of nearly sole coverage in the media, McCain still leads or is at least even with him. There's not much more Obama can do at this point.

Edited September 12, 2008 by Jenksismybitch

[clyons]

I'm thinking McCain is going to carry this momentum through to a close victory. The campaigns are getting nasty, and nobody does nasty politics better than the GOP.

 

I think so too. Besides, I think at their core, the American people are fundamentally conservative. Not necessarily in the Rush Limbaugh "neo-con" sense of the term, but more in the sense that tried and true (I hate to say "old and reliable" but it does seem apt here) usually beats new and different. People may say they want change, but only within reason. McCain will prevail by convincing the undecideds that a change to Obama will be an unsteady shift too far to the fringe. Obama is vulnerable there, and that part of the GOP playbook has proven solid in the past.

Edited September 12, 2008 by PlaySumFnJurny

[NorthSideSox72]

I think McCain will ulitmately pull it out. GOP grassroots is simply better than the DEMS, even if Obama has revitalized the DEM base. I think it'll be really close though. I just can't get over the fact that even after Obama had 3-4 months of nearly sole coverage in the media, McCain still leads or is at least even with him. There's not much more Obama can do at this point.

If McCain is going to win... which if the swing states go each way, in your view?

 

Also, I think McCain has a big gameday edge with the fear factor as I've mentioned. But the ground game, grassroots, is much more in Obama's corner. I think we've seen that in the primaries.

 

[Balta1701]

Also, I think McCain has a big gameday edge with the fear factor as I've mentioned. But the ground game, grassroots, is much more in Obama's corner. I think we've seen that in the primaries.

Do not underestimate the Republican ground game...aka the evangelical part of that party. In 2000 and 2004 that was, as far as I could tell, their ground game. That's how Bush outdid his polls. They were turned off until McCain picked one of them as his VP, now they're back in the game.

[southsider2k5]

The lobbyists.

[NorthSideSox72]

Do not underestimate the Republican ground game...aka the evangelical part of that party. In 2000 and 2004 that was, as far as I could tell, their ground game. That's how Bush outdid his polls. They were turned off until McCain picked one of them as his VP, now they're back in the game.

While they have strong support, I think it pales in comparison to what Obama has built up. The new voter registrations alone are huge numbers.

 

And in 2004, I think the reason Bush outperformed the polls was about the polls. There are selection biases present there which they did not account for. Also, like in this current election, Bush got a few points of fear swing votes on the day (as McCain will in November).

 

[Rex Kickass]

Do not underestimate the Republican ground game...aka the evangelical part of that party. In 2000 and 2004 that was, as far as I could tell, their ground game. That's how Bush outdid his polls. They were turned off until McCain picked one of them as his VP, now they're back in the game.

 

Absolutely right on with that. But, here's what you have to consider. There are two fundamentally different demographic shifts with this election than there were last time that have the possibility of neutralizing this effect in swing states.

 

1. African-American Turnout. - It will be ginormous. I think the Obama turnout in the Detroit/Flint area will be so large that it will submerge any re-energized Republicans in Grand Rapids and points north that it makes a McCain victory in Michigan that much less likely. It really helps make a state like Missouri much closer as there will be massive turnout in St. Louis and Kansas City. And I think it helps put a state like New Jersey that flirts with Republicans every year but never commits out of reach.

 

2. The Hispanic Vote - Bush won, in no small part, because he was able to peel enough Hispanic vote from Kerry and Gore, getting around 40% in each round. In the last four years, the GOP has kind of forgotten to reach out to the Latino population - instead taking a game changer for the GOP like Bush/McCain's comprehensive reform for immigration and almost turns it into something opposite. Although McCain had a better standing with Hispanics then, to reach his base, he's had to backtrack significantly, and the addition of a woman from Alaska is not necessarily going to help him. If Obama can limit McCain to 35% or less of the Latino vote, which is reasonable. It makes New Mexico and Colorado so much harder to keep from losing, and helps through Florida into being more of a toss-up. I realize that the Hispanic vote is not homogenous. But it's not unreasonable to think that the GOP actions on border control costs them 5 to 10 points in an election. Plus Hoy the largest spanish language newspaper in the country strongly endorsed Obama in the primary, I think this community will stand stronger behind Obama than they have Democratic candidates past.

[DABearSoX]

While they have strong support, I think it pales in comparison to what Obama has built up. The new voter registrations alone are huge numbers.

 

 

Yea..but the huge problem with that is...actually getting those people off their asses to vote...sure they can sign up online or from a person on a street but that isn't going to automatically give that vote to Obama, especially if there is bad weather in their neck of the woods on November 4th.

[NorthSideSox72]

Yea..but the huge problem with that is...actually getting those people off their asses to vote...sure they can sign up online or from a person on a street but that isn't going to automatically give that vote to Obama, especially if there is bad weather in their neck of the woods on November 4th.

They showed up for the primaries - that was the example. I think they are just as likely to show up on election day. Millions of new Dems voted in the primaries.

 

 

[DABearSoX]

They showed up for the primaries - that was the example. I think they are just as likely to show up on election day. Millions of new Dems voted in the primaries.

 

Touche on that one....but then this brings me to this...what about the new voters that signed up to vote for Hillary