Who do you think will win the November election?

[Balta1701]

Yea..but the huge problem with that is...actually getting those people off their asses to vote...sure they can sign up online or from a person on a street but that isn't going to automatically give that vote to Obama, especially if there is bad weather in their neck of the woods on November 4th.

If the RNC is any sign, there's going to be a hurricane hitting the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia/Alabama on that day. Poseidon isn't done with the Republicans yet!

[NorthSideSox72]

Touche on that one....but then this brings me to this...what about the new voters that signed up to vote for Hillary

Most will vote for Obama.

 

[jasonxctf]

Interesting voter total notes to keep in mind.

 

Ohio

In 2004, 2,739,952 votes were for Kerry. During the 2008 primary, 2,233,156 votes were cast for Democratic candidates. Overall there was a 40% voter turnout in the 2008 Ohio primary. In 2004, 67% of the eligable voters showed up. (28% during the primary or 1,221,014)

 

Virgina

In 2004, 1,454,742 votes were for Kerry. During the 2008 primary, 973,981 votes were cast for Democratic candidates. Overall there was a 26.9% voter turnout during the primary. In 2004, 61% of the eligable voters showed up. (7.5% during the primary or 395,903)

 

So, in comparison to 2004, 1,012,142 extra people voted in the Ohio Democratic primary and 578,078 extra people voted in the Virgina Democratic primary.

 

That is what I think these polls are missing when they try and estimate "likely" voters. You are not considered a likely voter if you didn't vote in 2004 even if you were elibable. So in these pollsters minds, these 1.6 million extra people who showed up during the primaries are not likely voters.

 

 

[jasonxctf]

Interesting voter total notes to keep in mind.

 

Ohio

In 2004, 2,739,952 votes were for Kerry. During the 2008 primary, 2,233,156 votes were cast for Democratic candidates. Overall there was a 40% voter turnout in the 2008 Ohio primary. In 2004, 67% of the eligable voters showed up. (28% during the primary or 1,221,014)

 

Virgina

In 2004, 1,454,742 votes were for Kerry. During the 2008 primary, 973,981 votes were cast for Democratic candidates. Overall there was a 26.9% voter turnout during the primary. In 2004, 61% of the eligable voters showed up. (7.5% during the primary or 395,903)

 

So, in comparison to 2004, 1,012,142 extra people voted in the Ohio Democratic primary and 578,078 extra people voted in the Virgina Democratic primary.

 

That is what I think these polls are missing when they try and estimate "likely" voters. You are not considered a likely voter if you didn't vote in 2004 even if you were elibable. So in these pollsters minds, these 1.6 million extra people who showed up during the primaries are not likely voters.

 

 

i'll take it a step further... if you assume that 50% of these extra primary voters are newbies or didn't vote in 2004, and that McCain gets the same amount of votes as GWB did in 2004...

 

OHIO

McCain= 2,858,727

Obama= 3,246,023

 

VIRGINA

McCain= 1,716,959

Obama= 1,743,781

 

if you drop the newbie level down to 25% of the extra primary voters...

 

OHIO

McCain= 2,858,727

Obama= 2,992,987

 

VIRGINA

McCain= 1,716,959

Obama= 1,599,261

 

So IMO, if Obama can turn out the vote like he did during the primaries, Ohio flips and this race is OVA.

[Steve9347]

If we get enough responses do you think we can get on MSNBC?

ha

[Balta1701]

i'll take it a step further... if you assume that 50% of these extra primary voters are newbies or didn't vote in 2004, and that McCain gets the same amount of votes as GWB did in 2004...

 

OHIO

McCain= 2,858,727

Obama= 3,246,023

 

VIRGINA

McCain= 1,716,959

Obama= 1,743,781

 

if you drop the newbie level down to 25% of the extra primary voters...

 

OHIO

McCain= 2,858,727

Obama= 2,992,987

 

VIRGINA

McCain= 1,716,959

Obama= 1,599,261

 

So IMO, if Obama can turn out the vote like he did during the primaries, Ohio flips and this race is OVA.

The big flaw in this line of thinking is obvious. The Republicans had an uncontested primary. There were more than a few forces urging republican voters to turn out in the Democratic primary for various reasons (Both candidates and the Republicans all tried to do that). There is plenty of reason to believe that some percentage of the people who voted in the Dem Primary are McCain supporters.

[mr_genius]

It's a touch call. I still think the political climate favors the Democrats. Now is it possible they find a way to lose this? Of course.

[lostfan]

I'm going to cop out here and say I honestly don't know. I think Obama has the inside track still despite his dip in the polls recently, but that doesn't mean he'll win. I have to think that Palin's luster among independents is going to fade some between now and the election though.

[Texsox]

I believe there are a lot of voters who tell the pollsters the Obama PC line who will pull the switch for McCain. People vote for people that look like themselves. More Americans look like McCain / Palin than Obama / Biden.

[jasonxctf]

The big flaw in this line of thinking is obvious. The Republicans had an uncontested primary. There were more than a few forces urging republican voters to turn out in the Democratic primary for various reasons (Both candidates and the Republicans all tried to do that). There is plenty of reason to believe that some percentage of the people who voted in the Dem Primary are McCain supporters.

 

as was 2004 for both parties. thus my point was, what caused the spike in primary voters this year? newbies or competition. if 25% of those "extra" voters were newbies that creates a whole new playing field to draw votes from.

[southsider2k5]

i'll take it a step further... if you assume that 50% of these extra primary voters are newbies or didn't vote in 2004, and that McCain gets the same amount of votes as GWB did in 2004...

 

OHIO

McCain= 2,858,727

Obama= 3,246,023

 

VIRGINA

McCain= 1,716,959

Obama= 1,743,781

 

if you drop the newbie level down to 25% of the extra primary voters...

 

OHIO

McCain= 2,858,727

Obama= 2,992,987

 

VIRGINA

McCain= 1,716,959

Obama= 1,599,261

 

So IMO, if Obama can turn out the vote like he did during the primaries, Ohio flips and this race is OVA.

 

And despite all of that, the polls still are virtually tied.