For Minnesota to catch us now...

[caulfield12]

They would have to take two of three in the HHH Dome next week, after taking 3 of 4 on the road against a very sound Tampa Bay Rays team (obviously, the Twins have struggled on the road recently) and then sweep the Royals at home. Keep in mind, the Rays are still motivated by keeping the AL East lead over Boston and also have slim odds to overtake LAA for the best record in AL and playoff homefield advantage.

 

This assumes another road loss against Cliff Lee tomorrow, with Baker on three days' rest.

 

In other words, 8-3 (2-1 versus the Sox), sweep of KC, loss to CLE tomorrow and take 3/4 at the Tropicana. I don't think the odds favor them doing any of those things, except for taking 2 of 3 from us on the turf.

 

 

For the White Sox to end the season with a clinching Monday win over DET and 91 total wins (clinching the AL Central in the final game, instead of the one game playoff scenario at home against the Twins)...they need the following to occur.

 

6-5 record over the next 11 games (5-6 in order to to go to a playoff, assuming Minnesota somehow finishes 8-3)

 

Split with Yankees

Take 2/3 at KC

Take 1/3 from Minnesota

Take 2/3 from CLE at home

 

 

I would love to believe the Twinkies are really done and will lay down for us next week, but that's VERY unlikely unless they get swept by the Indians and the D-Rays. If they go 1-4 and the White Sox go 3-2 (NY, KC), the White Sox would have a seemingly insurmountable 4 1/2 game lead with 6 or 7 to play. Of course, the only thing this season that has happened as predicted was Clayton Richard getting mowed down by a very hot Toronto Blue Jays team.

Edited September 17, 2008 by caulfield12

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I love it when you analyze.

[justBLAZE]

I don't believe Twins will just lay down.

 

The Sox will clinch with 90-71 record. (Detroit game will never get played)

[Jordan4life_2007]

Nice post. But I refuse to look past Wednesday's game. One game at a time is so much less stressful.

[caulfield12]

I was surprised to see Gardenhire use the phrase "snakebitten" to describe his team after tonight's loss. That's a loser's mentality...meant to explain the 3-13 bullpen, road woes and the sudden loss of confidence that Joe Nathan has demonstrated for the better part of a month.

 

"It's a tough one to swallow," he said. "So many heartbreaking things tonight. You feel for those young men out there [in the clubhouse]. They're battling, they're really trying, and we're just kind of snakebitten. We can't keep the ball in the ballpark and it's not going our way."

Edited September 17, 2008 by caulfield12

[Swingandalongonetoleft]

I just read the espn twins game recap and also took note of Gardey's comments. Not exactly lighting a fire under their asses... I imagine if Sunday's nightcap was blown we'd hear some profanity from Ozzie, but not a concession speech.

 

Either way, 2.5 game lead with Clay Richard throwing followed by 3 up there. Yanks aren't making the playoffs but might as well play like they are with The Stadium closing. Tonight made me feel warm and fuzzy, but only until 6:05 pm.

[greg775]

Good post caulfield, but if Clayton gets lit up as expected and Twins win, it's back to nailbiting time.

I love your analysis, but it's one day at a time. Anything can happen. Ask the Brew Crew who suddenly are what nine games out and a half back in the wildcard.

[joejoesox]

for what it's worth, ESPN's accuscore had the Sox's chances of winning last nights game at 34%

[witesoxfan]

I'm not going to say anything over the top, but I will go as far as saying that if the Sox want to play October baseball, they will. 7-5 against New York, KC, Minnesota, and Cleveland essentially clinches the division, and 6-6 doesn't hurt either.

 

I'm also getting that loving feeling.

[Jimbo's Drinker]

Dont like this thread, dont look ahead......

[joejoesox]

I'm not going to say anything over the top, but I will go as far as saying that if the Sox want to play October baseball, they will. 7-5 against New York, KC, Minnesota, and Cleveland essentially clinches the division, and 6-6 doesn't hurt either.

 

I'm also getting that loving feeling.

 

Ozzie throwing clayton back to the bump tomorrow doesn't help our chances for a 3 of 4 from the yankees, unfortunately

 

His decisions sometimes, just laughable

 

Of course, he *could* win, or rather WE could win (He could leave with a lead, or being down, and we could perhaps score more runs ultimately), but the odds of us winning with someone who's as f***ing bad as Clayton Richard, is very slim, and that pisses me off right now

[witesoxfan]

Ozzie throwing clayton back to the bump tomorrow doesn't help our chances for a 3 of 4 from the yankees, unfortunately

 

His decisions sometimes, just laughable

 

Of course, he *could* win, or rather WE could win (He could leave with a lead, or being down, and we could perhaps score more runs ultimately), but the odds of us winning with someone who's as f***ing bad as Clayton Richard, is very slim, and that pisses me off right now

 

The only other pitcher I would ultimately use before Richard as the starter tomorrow is Carrasco, but I think he's more for damage control. You are assuredly not going to use Broadway against them as there's no doubt in my mind that the Yankees would absolutely destroy him (and he's been quite a bit worse than Richard has this year, even if it is skewed because of one outing...I think an outing tomorrow would skew that even worse).

 

If you can get what he did against Seattle or Baltimore, the Sox are in a position to win; if you can get what he did against Cleveland, you go to Carrasco and hope he can get to the 7th and that the Sox are leading. If he gets rocked early and the game is essentially out of hand by the 3rd or 4th, you go to Broadway, hope he pitches decently, and that the Sox can get back into the game. If they can't, let Swisher throw an inning or two.

 

I really don't think this matchup is nearly as bad as people anticipate it being. It obviously doesn't favor the Sox, but I'm not about to write them off right now.

 

 

[Swingandalongonetoleft]

If they can't, let Swisher throw an inning or two.

 

The seed has now been planted, and my evening is ruined if it doesn't come to be.

[caulfield12]

The only other pitcher I would ultimately use before Richard as the starter tomorrow is Carrasco, but I think he's more for damage control. You are assuredly not going to use Broadway against them as there's no doubt in my mind that the Yankees would absolutely destroy him (and he's been quite a bit worse than Richard has this year, even if it is skewed because of one outing...I think an outing tomorrow would skew that even worse).

 

If you can get what he did against Seattle or Baltimore, the Sox are in a position to win; if you can get what he did against Cleveland, you go to Carrasco and hope he can get to the 7th and that the Sox are leading. If he gets rocked early and the game is essentially out of hand by the 3rd or 4th, you go to Broadway, hope he pitches decently, and that the Sox can get back into the game. If they can't, let Swisher throw an inning or two.

 

I really don't think this matchup is nearly as bad as people anticipate it being. It obviously doesn't favor the Sox, but I'm not about to write them off right now.

 

There are a few reasons for hope...

 

1) Phil Hughes is far from being an automatic slam dunk for the Yankees (kind of like Homer Bailey of the AL)

2) We have Danks as the first out of the pen on Wednesday for 2-4 innings, as his official start won't be for one week, until next Sunday

3) Yankees are below .500 against LH starters

4) For the moment, "mo" seems to be on the side of the Sox for once this season

[caulfield12]

Ozzie throwing clayton back to the bump tomorrow doesn't help our chances for a 3 of 4 from the yankees, unfortunately

 

His decisions sometimes, just laughable

 

Of course, he *could* win, or rather WE could win (He could leave with a lead, or being down, and we could perhaps score more runs ultimately), but the odds of us winning with someone who's as f***ing bad as Clayton Richard, is very slim, and that pisses me off right now

 

 

There's really very little choice here. As it is, we're possibly going to use our three best starters without four days' rest TWICE before we go into the first round of the playoffs.

 

The only pitcher we're attempting to baby along is Danks, because of his age and his innings pitched over the last 2-3 seasons. I remember some speculating he would be shut down for September, but that just doesn't happen in a pennant race that traditionally comes around once every 4-5 seasons for the modern-day Sox.

 

The Twins are being forced to used Baker on 3 days' rest as well, against Cliff Lee. The reason I'm not 100% worried is that seems like a loss and another day off the calendar. However, with their backs against the wall, I think the Twins might resuscitate themselves and somehow win, although I wouldn't bet anything of significance (say, Merrill, AIG or Lehman stock!!!) on it.

 

Poreda would have been the wild-card to go, but starting in NY against that line-up, I remember what happened with N. Cotts when we did that to him in 2003, when Buehrle wanted to go on short rest and we could have swept them out of Queens. Manuel didn't go for the jugular. Unfortunately, we can't pitch Vazquez on 2 days' rest, right? Or did you want Broadway or Carrasco? Either one of them, as noted, would have been shellacked as well.

Edited September 17, 2008 by caulfield12

[Texsox]

While the game by game or series by series predictions all seem fair, I know that just playing .500 ball has been a struggle for these guys. Either the Sox or Twins could go 3-7 and 7-3, They are banged up and have/or have ability woes in too many spots.

 

Of course I would rather be 2.5 up then 2.5 down but two wins for Minny and two Sox loses tightens this up in a hurry.

[southsider2k5]

Quit worrying about the Twins and enjoy the stretch run. There is nothing like a pennant race boys, they don't come along too often. Even when we have won, it usually hasn't been this close for this long.

[southsideirish71]

Quit worrying about the Twins and enjoy the stretch run. There is nothing like a pennant race boys, they don't come along too often. Even when we have won, it usually hasn't been this close for this long.

 

Its a real simple formula. If we keep winning and worrying about our own games, then the Twinks wont matter. This one will be sweet if we can follow through and win this. Especially after the 90 loss season, and the pre-season predictions of the battle for 5th place.

 

 

[iamshack]

I just want to go into Minny with more than a 3 game lead.....please make it so...

 

I have a good feeling about tonight....

[RME JICO]

Its a real simple formula. If we keep winning and worrying about our own games, then the Twinks wont matter. This one will be sweet if we can follow through and win this. Especially after the 90 loss season, and the pre-season predictions of the battle for 5th place.

The Sox need to take care of business against the Yanks and Royals. We can have the division locked up by the time we visit Minnesota.

[GoSox05]

I know its been tough to win in Minnesota, but I would love to see the Sox go up there and kick the twins ass. I think that would be a nice way to win the AL Central.

[daa84]

minny has to face...

 

cliff lee (1st in AL in ERA)

james shields (9th)

edwin jackson (T-30th)

scott kazmir (would be 9th with enough innings)

andy sonnanstine (T-30)

Javy Vazquez (23)

John Danks (5th)

Mark Buerhle (19th)

 

 

Have fun with that stretch

[SoxFan562004]

minny has to face...

 

cliff lee (1st in AL in ERA)

james shields (9th)

edwin jackson (T-30th)

scott kazmir (would be 9th with enough innings)

andy sonnanstine (T-30)

Javy Vazquez (23)

John Danks (5th)

Mark Buerhle (19th)

 

 

Have fun with that stretch

If he thinks that Beckett is pitching for the Twins look out. Talk about a guy sacking up for a team. His last two starts against Beckett have been sick

[YASNY]

Ozzie throwing clayton back to the bump tomorrow doesn't help our chances for a 3 of 4 from the yankees, unfortunately

 

His decisions sometimes, just laughable

 

Of course, he *could* win, or rather WE could win (He could leave with a lead, or being down, and we could perhaps score more runs ultimately), but the odds of us winning with someone who's as f***ing bad as Clayton Richard, is very slim, and that pisses me off right now

 

So tell me, just exactly what decision would you make? Put it out there for Soxtalk to analyze.

[Steve9347]

Paul Konerko comes back and rocks it for us.