KW, win or lose, we need to rebuild for 2010/11

[caulfield12]

 

Minnesota has an advantage going forward against the Sox at a majority of positions...

 

If you were a GM, who would you want at these positions for the next three seasons (09/10/11)???

 

RF Slight edge to Twins. Dye will probably be better than Cuddyer/Span in 2009 (although you wouldn't know it based on the final month), but Span is very solid all-around player, he's young, and affordable. He won't put up the offensive numbers, but they have Morneau/Mauer/Kubel/Young for that in the middle of the line-up. He's a much better fielder than Dye and undoubtedly has a better arm at this point in their careers. The reason I give advantage Twins is because Cuddyer is a very valuable bargaining chip if they want to trade him for another part. Although they are overloaded with LH hitters, that's the main rationale for keeping him.

 

CF Even...but leaning to Minnesota. Only because Swisher is not a natural CFer...both Gomez and Swisher have had disappointing seasons, based on projections/predictions for their impacts. Swisher has basically lost his spot to Griffey/Wise for now, in the most important series of the year. Going forward, Swisher should return to the .240-.250 range. Gomez has more raw talent and upside as a CFer, but also could flame out just as easily.

 

LF Edge to Quentin. Although we could very easily say that Young has the better future after 2009. Young is an undisciplined hitter, won't take a pitch, strikes out a lot, can't field well and doesn't run the bases like he should. Sometimes he is lazy and an attitude/clubhouse problem. All that said, he's still just 22-23 years old and has a world of talent. I want to see Carlos repeat this year's performance, we all would...crossing my fingers that he's not next year's Nick Swisher.

 

3B Even, slight edge to Twins in future. Luke Hughes over Josh Fields. For this season Crede/Uribe=Harris/Buscher.

 

SS Edge to White Sox...Alexei Ramirez over Alexi Casilla, due to the power and better arm.

 

2B ???? Tolbert versus Getz/FA/Trade

 

1B Edge to Twins, Morneau over Konerko, two MVP's likely in the last three seasons. Let's hope Paulie gets back to .280, 30, 100, 900 OPS form soon.

 

C Huge edge to Mauer...on almost every variable but homers, but he's a doubles machine.

 

DH Kubel/Young slight edge over Thome, just because of age and the fact that I will be covering my eyes if Thome starts showing signs of Griffey-itis.

 

ADVANTAGE TWINS=4 (RF, C, 1B, DH)

EVEN=2 (CF/3B)

???=1 (2B)

ADVANTAGE SOX=2 (Ramirez/Quentin)

 

Buehrle over Liriano. Now everyone thinks that's crazy probably, but unless Liriano gets back up to 94-96 MPH with his fastball and gets his slider up in the 85-88 range, then I take Mark. Of course, the second year of TJ recovery usually is the bounceback year, and Liriano at an admitted 70-80% of his former self has resulted in zero losses in AAA and the majors over the last four months. Still, Liriano is only 24 and a huge payroll bargain.

 

Danks over Baker...Danks is younger, left-handed and already one of the best pitchers in the AL. Can he repeat? Baker is rock solid...very good BB/K ratio, one of the most unheralded starters in the AL.

 

Floyd over Slowey...although I think it's much more likely Slowey repeats his 2008 season than Floyd, Floyd is the better pitcher due to overall talent and stuff, and he's really grown up and matured this season, in many ways, he's morphing into a "stopper" that Vazquez will never be.

 

Perkins over Vazquez...simply due to the $10 milion that Javier eats in salary, obviously Javier is a more talented pitcher. But that doesn't equate to wins.

 

Blackburn over Richard/Broadway...although he's severely fading, along with Perkins. Solid overall year. I didn't consider Poreda because he's at least 3-4 months away, if not 2010.

 

Nathan even with Jenks

 

LH relievers...edge to Twins, because they have four of them, we essentially have only Thornton, because Ramirez and Logan are lost and Richard isn't really a true reliever. Mijares looks very tough, Breslow has had a very good season, Reyes has another ERA in the 2's and Guardado will be gone.

 

RH relievers...edge to Twins if Neshek comes back at full strength, even if not. Although I am doubtful either Dotel or Linebrink will put up better seasons than 2008. We'll see. Crain will have one more year to rebuild his fastball coming off surgery, he's not there yet. Guerrier is solid, but he's a 6-7th inning guy, not a true set-up type of pitcher. MacDougal for 09? Who knows? Bonser? Korecky?

 

The White Sox might need to go out and get another reliever somehow...and hopefully we won't take the 2006 approach of throwing darts at the problem and hoping some stick. That didn't work. Sometimes you have to spend money or give up talent.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[greg775]

Wow caulfield, well thought out post. But did you mean 2009-10?

[witesoxfan]

Perhaps well thought out, but I find it ridiculous, and the timing makes it worse.

 

Compare the 2006 team to the 2005 team, and the 2006 team to the 2008 team. You won't find many similarities, yet all 3 teams have been very solid teams. Now compare the 2007 team to all those, and you still won't see many similarities.

 

KW knows how to build a team and I think anyone looking ahead to 2010 is crazy.

 

I also think you are flat out wrong in a lot of regards too. Swisher is a far superior player to Carlos Gomez and if you can't see that, you are friggin blind. Look at the numbers and watch them play. Gomez has a lot of talent, but he's an absolute moron of a baseball player and is pretty similar to Juan Uribe at this point.

 

Giving a slight edge in LF is probably the worst of the all. The White Sox had the surefire MVP of the league in Carlos Quentin who is just as talented as Delmon Young but has actually put it together and is a ridiculously smart and patient hitter...Quentin blows him out of the water.

 

And Morneau should not win the MVP. That should be Pedroia. If Morneau gets it, I couldn't help but feel that it's just Americans wanting Canadians to feel welcome.

 

Finally, you are not considering free agent signings, trades, or draft picks that have yet to be made. The Sox actually make noise in that. The Twins biggest free agent signings over the past 2 years have been Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, Livan Hernandez, Mike Lamb, and Jeff Cirillo. I don't see any way that Fields is the 3Bman next season, and I would probably put better odds on Crede starting at 3B next year than Fields.

Edited September 24, 2008 by witesoxfan

[rangercal]

KW knows how to build a team and I think anyone looking ahead to 2010 is crazy.

agree. I'm not going to question Kenny when I see him add players like Floyd,Danks,Quinten and Ramirez . Caulfield you have way too much time on your hands. Quit your worries. Don't forget, we have a deeper wallet, so that will make up for numerous positions in itself.

[caulfield12]

Perhaps well thought out, but I find it ridiculous, and the timing makes it worse.

 

Compare the 2006 team to the 2005 team, and the 2006 team to the 2008 team. You won't find many similarities, yet all 3 teams have been very solid teams. Now compare the 2007 team to all those, and you still won't see many similarities.

 

KW knows how to build a team and I think anyone looking ahead to 2010 is crazy.

 

I also think you are flat out wrong in a lot of regards too. Swisher is a far superior player to Carlos Gomez and if you can't see that, you are friggin blind. Look at the numbers and watch them play. Gomez has a lot of talent, but he's an absolute moron of a baseball player and is pretty similar to Juan Uribe at this point.

 

Giving a slight edge in LF is probably the worst of the all. The White Sox had the surefire MVP of the league in Carlos Quentin who is just as talented as Delmon Young but has actually put it together and is a ridiculously smart and patient hitter...Quentin blows him out of the water.

 

And Morneau should not win the MVP. That should be Pedroia. If Morneau gets it, I couldn't help but feel that it's just Americans wanting Canadians to feel welcome.

 

Finally, you are not considering free agent signings, trades, or draft picks that have yet to be made. The Sox actually make noise in that. The Twins biggest free agent signings over the past 2 years have been Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, Livan Hernandez, Mike Lamb, and Jeff Cirillo. I don't see any way that Fields is the 3Bman next season, and I would probably put better odds on Crede starting at 3B next year than Fields.

 

Well, the obvious similarity is that that all of KW's teams have been built on a power-first premise offensively, and each of them has been built to win that particular season in question.

 

In the beginning, the idea was that not only was having a power-hitting line-up more conducive to winning in Comiskey, it would also generate better attendance numbers (remember those "chicks love the long ball" ads?).

 

The times when those teams have been very good or great (first 4 months of 2000, mid-season 2003, 2005, first half 06 and then 08), the pitching has been the primary factor, with the exception of 2006, where our offense carried the pitching that was starting to sag.

 

With Gomez, it's not his OPS versus Swisher, anymore than comparing Pods statistically to Swisher (or Iguchi to Swisher) would reveal. It's how he fits in with the overall team, its philosophy and the way it attacks an opponent. Gomez, Young and Brendan Harris have been round pegs in square holes for large parts of this season (mainly because they weren't raised in the Twins' system), leading to untold headaches for Gardenhire, but they're knocking on the door and the roughest patch might prove to be 2008 for this group. One must remember Carlos Quentin was available to any team in the league for a C. Carter (now w/ Red Sox) level prospect. Like Jenks, there were some character/make-up issues. With Carlos, it's whether he is too high-strung or too intense not to let it get to him, to get the best of him...like it also does with Konerko from time to time. As I said, it's not so easy to just assume Quentin will be this good for the rest of his career, there are a number of other factors at play.

 

I don't want any more Bristolized/ESPN MVP's. I believe the Twins would have had a much more difficult time without Morneau than the Red Sox without Pedroia. Just personal preference. I have no strong feelings about either player. If I was the CEO of Lifetime or Disney, I'd root for Josh Hamilton.

 

The Twins don't have to do as much as we do (3B, RH relief), and they already have an asset in Cuddyer, who's more valuable than any player we could trade from our major league roster without creating another hole in the depth chart.

 

By the way, it's 308 pm in Thailand, and it's "study/pre-finals week" at my university here, so maybe I do have too much time on my hand. I finished reading a Paulo Coelho novel, I decided to take a break and get the White Sox issues off my chest.

 

Finally, something not remarked upon much (more about CQ and Quentin), but we wouldn't be in such a mess pitching-wise if not for Contreras going down. I still think it's pretty remarkable we're in first place, along with withstanding the Linebrink injury. We've just survived and treaded water, the Twins are the team that has really been choking recently (although if MB and Floyd lose and we wash out, we will be called chokers I guess).

 

 

[BearSox]

I posted it before, and I'll post it again, my ideal lineup for next year:

 

1. Figgins, 3B

2. Hudson, 2B

3. Quentin, RF

4. Konerko, 1B

5. Thome, DH

6. Dye, LF

7. Ramirez, SS

8. Pierzynski, C

9. Swisher, CF

 

You could flip flop Dye and Konerko. Also, I think Dye has to be moved out of RF. I'm tired of seeing a guy with the speed of a turtle trying to track down balls out there.

[chisoxt]

I posted it before, and I'll post it again, my ideal lineup for next year:

 

1. Figgins, 3B

2. Hudson, 2B

3. Quentin, RF

4. Konerko, 1B

5. Thome, DH

6. Dye, LF

7. Ramirez, SS

8. Pierzynski, C

9. Swisher, CF

 

You could flip flop Dye and Konerko. Also, I think Dye has to be moved out of RF. I'm tired of seeing a guy with the speed of a turtle trying to track down balls out there.

 

No 'ideal' lineup should EVER have Swisher in CF. What are you thionking?

[BearSox]

No 'ideal' lineup should EVER have Swisher in CF. What are you thionking?

My ideal but realistic lineup. Swisher isn't going anywhere after this season and Ozzie will continuely find a spot for him in the lineup.

[caulfield12]

I posted it before, and I'll post it again, my ideal lineup for next year:

 

1. Figgins, 3B

2. Hudson, 2B

3. Quentin, RF

4. Konerko, 1B

5. Thome, DH

6. Dye, LF

7. Ramirez, SS

8. Pierzynski, C

9. Swisher, CF

 

You could flip flop Dye and Konerko. Also, I think Dye has to be moved out of RF. I'm tired of seeing a guy with the speed of a turtle trying to track down balls out there.

 

 

Who do you think we could/should trade to get Figgins?

 

Are you willing to deal Poreda for him?

[Buehrle>Wood]

Who do you think we could/should trade to get Figgins?

 

Are you willing to deal Poreda for him?

 

You are nuts if you wouldn't.

[DBAHO]

KW needs to keep trading for young players who can make the jump into a major league team and produce e.g your Floyd's, Danks' and Quentin's.

 

So long as he keeps doing that and doesn't let the core group of guys get older and older, we'll remain extremely competitive.

[RockRaines]

HAHAHA, "slight edge in LF" Whatcha smokin? Quentin is arguably the best player in the division right now.

[caulfield12]

HAHAHA, "slight edge in LF" Whatcha smokin? Quentin is arguably the best player in the division right now.

 

It wasn't specifically about JUST this season.

 

I think there would be a split opinion on who would have the best numbers from 2009-2001, D. Young or Carlos Quentin.

 

A ton of scouts LOVE Young, still. Just like they once loved Gavin Floyd.

[RockRaines]

It wasn't specifically about JUST this season.

 

I think there would be a split opinion on who would have the best numbers from 2009-2001, D. Young or Carlos Quentin.

 

A ton of scouts LOVE Young, still. Just like they once loved Gavin Floyd.

Scouts also LOVE Quentin as well.

 

D Young minor league stats- .318 .362 .518 .880 (of course he was only in the minors till the age of 20)

C Quentin minor league stats .313 .413 .527 .940

[Jeremy]

I mostly agree. With Paully, Thome, Griffey, Dye, and Cabrera we have a lot of older players out there right now. I'd like to get a bit younger and athletic, especially in the outfield. With Griffey, Uribe, and Cabrera all free agents it shouldn't be too hard if Kenny plays his cards right. We may want to look into moving one of Dye, Paully, and Thome though so that we can put Swish at 1B or a corner spot and get a more traditional CF.

Edited September 24, 2008 by Jeremy

[iamshack]

While I don't necessarily agree with you Caufield, thanks for posting this. Something to get my mind off of last night...

 

I agree with a lot of what's been said, mainly that it is quite difficult to try to imagine a KW GM'd ballclub more than a year or so in advance. I highly doubt KW will be lucky enough to hit on 4 good young players as he did this year, but if he could continue to find 1 or 2 a year, he would still be well ahead of the curve.

 

I'd really like to see him turn his attention to finding some good young players at the corners. I feel like Getz will get a look at 2b next year and would fit into this ballclub very well.

 

I'd also like to see Kenny try to figure out which direction we are going in terms of the OF. I'd like to see the situation stabilized. Of course, that probably cannot really be done until Dye's contract runs out.

 

But in terms of rebuilding, Kenny has done a fantastic job of rebuilding on the fly and to suggest he needs to do so in a few years is to imply he isn't already doing so now...so I'm not really sure that is an accurate request.

[Princess Dye]

I think there would be a split opinion on who would have the best numbers from 2009-2001, D. Young or Carlos Quentin.

 

 

i think you meant who would have the best numbers from 2009 to 3001.

[Cali]

Jeez, can we stop blowing the Twins? They've accomplished NOTHING. They've been able to win an extremely weak division a bunch of times...

 

They're really good at developing players, yes, but they develop them enough to get beaten in the ALDS and then a few years later trade them, and rebuild to be just okay again.

[whitesoxfan101]

I don't think rebuild is the right word. With foundation pieces for the long haul like Ramirez, Quentin, Floyd, and Danks, you have a great start. Buehrle and Paulie have their ups and downs, but you expect a few more good years out of both of them, and I still like Bobby Jenks (although if somebody wants to overpay for him in a trade, go ahead). Major retooling is needed though. The offense in large part has to be completely rebuild, as much of it is very old and very slow. The bullpen needs more help (although that can be said for every team), and although we have three very good starting pitchers right now, we lack system depth. What are we going to do with Javy? Will Aaron Poreda be a starter or relief pitcher? A lot needs to be done, but Kenny knows that is the case regardless of if we win the division or don't.

Edited September 24, 2008 by whitesoxfan101

[WHITESOXRANDY]

Trying to project the Sox team 2 years from now is a waste of time.

 

Before 2008 did you know that Carlos Qentin would be one of the best players in baseball? Did you know that Alexei Ramirez would be as good as any rookie? Did you know that Gavin Floyd would win 16-17 games?

 

Kenny Williams has proven that he can add impact players quickly. This team could win the WS in 2010 so relax.

[Wanne]

I mostly agree. With Paully, Thome, Griffey, Dye, and Cabrera we have a lot of older players out there right now. I'd like to get a bit younger and athletic, especially in the outfield. With Griffey, Uribe, and Cabrera all free agents it shouldn't be too hard if Kenny plays his cards right. We may want to look into moving one of Dye, Paully, and Thome though so that we can put Swish at 1B or a corner spot and get a more traditional CF.

 

I actually think one or two of the threesome of Dye, Paulie and Thome will be moved this offseason. I honestly wouldn't count out Kenny not bringing OC back either. Swisher...geez-us. I've come to the conclusion that he'd be better off in an "no pressure" environment like KC, Oakland, Baltimore, etc... I think the dude just crumbled under the pressure this year of expectations of him. We definitely need to get younger though. Damn this team looks old right now.

[thedoctor]

i've said before and will say again that if there is a rebuilding process, kw will not be a part of it. from day one kw has had a win-now approach and i think he is far too competitive to want to preside over any extended period of time when we are losing more regularly than winning.

 

to me, rebuilding means we are going to go way young and suffer for a year or two with the promise of the future to get us by. while the idea is nice in theory, i'm not sure it will work in practice.

 

for one, history has shown that the sox need to win to draw. today we are drawing almost 10,000 more fans a game than we were pre-2005. excepting last year, that's because we've been a much more competitive team. if we opt for a rebuilding approach, attendance will drop. if attendance drops, payroll will drop and probably right about the time that q, ramirez, floyd, and danks come up for new contract extensions that we would not be able to afford.

 

so count me solidly against any rebuilding process. i've been through periods of time where we were all excited about our prospects only to see one after another fail and the big club remain a mediocre one.

 

at the same time, i am wholeheartedly in favor of a re-tooling, and i'd argue that that has been an ongoing process since 2006 and will probably continue to be.