State of our starting pitchers

[GreatScott82]

Okay most of the talk this winter is going to surround around adding speed to our offense- which is very important. However, what about our starting pitching situation. What happens here? I think its safe to say that Buerhle, Danks, and Floyd are here to stay for another 3-4 years. But what about that 4th and 5th slot? Vazquez really layed an egg when we needed him the most down the stretch and his confrontation with AJ really didn't help his reputation either. I would LOVE if he was traded this offseason for some bullpen help, another SP or perhaps some more speed. And then there is the Contreras situation. THere is talk about him not returning until June or July. Its safe to say he will not be in our rotation in 2009. That extension KW gave him is really biting him in the ass.

 

So what happens to that 4th spot. Do we trade Javy? Im sure there are pleanty of NL teams that would love to have him. KW would likely get some decent peices in return, so i say yes! How can we fill that 4th spot then? Well there are free agents out there that we can take a look at. I think its safe to say CC Sabathia will play for big time bucks out on the west coast. So that leaves us with guys like Sheets, Burnett, Garland, Lowe, or Mussina on the free agent market. I personally like Derek Lowe for our rotation. He's nothing fancy but the guy just gets the job done when you need him most and can come a decent price. I would also take a look at Burnett, but he's likely going to ask for something HUGE and quite frankly he's not that much different than Javy. Mussina is another interesting name, this guys just gets better with age. Sheets may also be a guy to look at. Due to his injuries he can be had at bargain value. Garland will likely go to an NL team.

 

So what about that 5th spot. Do we fill that hole temporarily with Clayton Richard until Contreras returns. Or do we go out and find another guy. I wouldn't mind having Richard in that spot. He pitched awesome down the stretch in New York and during the divisional series vs Tampa. He's our best farm hand option and I wouldn't be upset if we threw him out there every 5th day until Contreras is ready to go. I also wouldn't mind looking into a veteran guy looking to prove himself again. Freddy Garcia, Paul Byrd, Bartolo Colon, Jaime Moyer etc.....

 

So in summary- trade Javy for speed/penhelp or another SP. Sign Lowe/Sheets for the 4th spot. Let Richard have the 5th spot OR bring in a veteran until Contreras returns.

 

Thoughts?

[maggsmaggs]

The Sox in the mode to build from within in terms of starters IMO. I see JD, Floyd, MB, Vaz and Richard next year, but in 2-3 years, I see it as this:

 

Danks is gonna be this team's ace for the forseable future, he just needs to learn to be more efficient, which he is getting better at.

 

Buehrle will be the second guy, the you know you can count on for consistency and leadership.

 

Floyd is going have to continue to improve to be this team's #3 and hopefully #2, so you can split Mark and Danks. Keep the walks down, learn to pitch over errors and field the position better is what he has to work on. Luckily, most of this comes with experience. He also could benefit from a cut fastball to help against lefties. Also fortunate, the Sox organization is becoming one of the best at teaching this pitch.

 

Poreda will hopefully be in the rotation by now and not in the pen or some other organization. If he is throwing 96 MPH with heavy sink, I don't care how bad his secondary pitches are, he is gonna be a very good pitcher. Hopefully, he continue to improve his secondary pitches and develops a cut fastball to help against righties.

 

Richard should be a perfect #5 pitcher in a couple of years. Works fast, can get deep into games, low walks and a good teammate. I don't see him every becoming a great pitcher, but for a fifth starter if he can provide 10-15 wins a year with a 4.2-4.6 ERA, he would be fine there. He just needs to learn to throw to first base, but he looked very comfortable toward the end of the year in the majors and he is hard workers who will continue to get better as he has more years as a baseball-only player.

 

So in three years, I think these should be reasonable numbers from our starters:

Danks: 15-20 wins, ~3.00 ERA

Floyd: 15-18 wins, ~3.50 ERA

Buehrle: 12-16 wins, ~3.75 ERA

Poreda: 10-14 wins ~4.00 ERA

Richard: 10-14 wins, ~4.50 ERA

 

I don't see Vaz going anywhere this off-season, because I don't think KW wants to put a bid in for a top pitcher. The next group of pitchers will cost more than Vaz and are not really that much better. Vaz is a bum in big games, but Garland is gonna get paid more than him, but Vaz > Garland still. I am just looking forward to the development of Richard and Poreda and I really don't care if you have four lefties because as long as Buerhle and Richard are not ack-to-back, they are all very different. Sox should continue to build from within so that they can go out and use the money to resign their own players and get some offense help.

Edited October 18, 2008 by maggsmaggs

[SkokieSox]

4 lefties in the rotation? Seems like a major gamble, especially with two being Poreda and Richard.

[Whitewashed in '05]

The Sox in the mode to build from within in terms of starters IMO. I see JD, Floyd, MB, Vaz and Richard next year, but in 2-3 years, I see it as this:

 

Danks is gonna be this team's ace for the forseable future, he just needs to learn to be more efficient, which he is getting better at.

 

Buehrle will be the second guy, the you know you can count on for consistency and leadership.

 

Floyd is going have to continue to improve to be this team's #3 and hopefully #2, so you can split Mark and Danks. Keep the walks down, learn to pitch over errors and field the position better is what he has to work on. Luckily, most of this comes with experience. He also could benefit from a cut fastball to help against lefties. Also fortunate, the Sox organization is becoming one of the best at teaching this pitch.

 

Poreda will hopefully be in the rotation by now and not in the pen or some other organization. If he is throwing 96 MPH with heavy sink, I don't care how bad his secondary pitches are, he is gonna be a very good pitcher. Hopefully, he continue to improve his secondary pitches and develops a cut fastball to help against righties.

 

Richard should be a perfect #5 pitcher in a couple of years. Works fast, can get deep into games, low walks and a good teammate. I don't see him every becoming a great pitcher, but for a fifth starter if he can provide 10-15 wins a year with a 4.2-4.6 ERA, he would be fine there. He just needs to learn to throw to first base, but he looked very comfortable toward the end of the year in the majors and he is hard workers who will continue to get better as he has more years as a baseball-only player.

 

So in three years, I think these should be reasonable numbers from our starters:

Danks: 15-20 wins, ~3.00 ERA

Floyd: 15-18 wins, ~3.50 ERA

Buehrle: 12-16 wins, ~3.75 ERA

Poreda: 10-14 wins ~4.00 ERA

Richard: 10-14 wins, ~4.50 ERA

 

I don't see Vaz going anywhere this off-season, because I don't think KW wants to put a bid in for a top pitcher. The next group of pitchers will cost more than Vaz and are not really that much better. Vaz is a bum in big games, but Garland is gonna get paid more than him, but Vaz > Garland still. I am just looking forward to the development of Richard and Poreda and I really don't care if you have four lefties because as long as Buerhle and Richard are not ack-to-back, they are all very different. Sox should continue to build from within so that they can go out and use the money to resign their own players and get some offense help.

 

You're not going to be good with just one plus pitch. Poreda needs at to work on his secondary stuff or he's in the pen.

 

Vaz > Garland huh? I'll take Garland.

Edited October 18, 2008 by Whitewashed in '05

[maggsmaggs]

You're not going to be good with just one plus pitch. Poreda needs at to work on his secondary stuff or he's in the pen.

 

Vaz > Garland huh? I'll take Garland.

Poreda throws a slider and changeup and they are both average pitches. He can start in the majors with his repetoire because his fastball is explosive with movement. An Ace? No. Top of the rotation guy? No. But a 4 or 5? Certainly.

 

Jon Garland: 4.90 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, .303 batting average against, 59 BBs and 90 Ks.

Javier Vazquez: 4.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, .263 batting average against, 61 BBs and 200 Ks.

 

By these numbers, it is also safe to say that Vazquez underperformed based on peripherals and Garland overperformed. Garland, as much as I love him, is trash.

[Whitewashed in '05]

It's not even really close. Vazquez is a much better pitcher than Garland, and that didn't change in 2008.

Javy will never sniff 18 wins in a season let alone back to back. I know I know, wins are more of a team stat, but Javy doesn't even have a .500 record in his career. Javy has better stuff, but doesn't utilize it. I'll take the guy who can give you a good performance in big games and is accountable for his performance to a guy who doesn't care about his lack of performance. Garland did have a bad year last year. Although I really don't care if Javy doesn't allow as many hits per season or strikes out more people. If he doesn't use his above average pitches to Jon's good to average pitches and they have similar career numbers then what good is his stuff?

 

I also don't think you can use the underperformed tag with Javy anymore. He's shown what type of numbers he will give you whether he has great stuff or not. Expecting anything more from Javy than a 4 ERA season with 12-15 wins is expecting too much.

Edited October 18, 2008 by Whitewashed in '05

[BamaDoc]

An ERA of 4 and 12-15 wins is great if you pick him as a 4 or 5 plus 200+ innings. However don't discount some guys years vs Javy's 3-4 starts. I would love a major upgrade but he is still very useful.

[joeynach]

I think your kidding yourself if you think Lowe or Sheets will be affordable. Both are likely to command 13-15 mil per year over 4-5 years. Remember Vazquez and his 4.5ish era gets 11.5M, Lily and his 4.2 era gets $12M, etc.

[BearSox]

We'd be stupid to get rid of Vazquez in the off-season. Our rotation already has enough problems, and no-balls Javy is still good enough for a solid 4 or 5.

[beck72]

The sox should trade for a SP like Justin Duchsherer. He's a bit of a risk. Yet he's got an upside as a #1 or a #2 SP if healthy. That way, Javy moves down to be the 5th SP.

 

If Poreda can be ready by the All star break [or Contreras], and Richard could be the 5th SP, why not.

 

But I'd also look to add, via trade, a SP prospect that could start the year in AA and be ready for AAA by June, and possibly be ready for the 2nd half. In addition, I'd add a vet who could be in the AAA rotation to serve as insurance.

 

[Chisoxfn]

I think the Sox will use Richard in the pen, with the plan of stretching him out and using him as the 5th if anyone struggles or gets injured. Contreras will not be counted upon for anything and the club will likely look to trade for another young arm (potentially in a Javy deal). However, Kenny can't panic and move Javy just for the sake of moving him. He still has value and if you dont' get a pretty good offer, you don't trade him.

[joeynach]

I think the Sox will use Richard in the pen, with the plan of stretching him out and using him as the 5th if anyone struggles or gets injured. Contreras will not be counted upon for anything and the club will likely look to trade for another young arm (potentially in a Javy deal). However, Kenny can't panic and move Javy just for the sake of moving him. He still has value and if you dont' get a pretty good offer, you don't trade him.

 

100 % Correct

[beck72]

Vazquez has a ton of value. Teams know they can get 30 starts, 200 + innings and K's, and a 4.25 ERA in the AL from him. While he's not a big game pitcher, he can help a team get the playoffs with his ability to eat innings and keep a team in the game.

 

If Javy could net the sox a SP who could be in the 2009 rotation plus another solid contributor in the bullpen or a young position player, I could see him being moved. But it would have to be a good return.

[Chisoxfn]

Vazquez has a ton of value. Teams know they can get 30 starts, 200 + innings and K's, and a 4.25 ERA in the AL from him. While he's not a big game pitcher, he can help a team get the playoffs with his ability to eat innings and keep a team in the game.

 

If Javy could net the sox a SP who could be in the 2009 rotation plus another solid contributor in the bullpen or a young position player, I could see him being moved. But it would have to be a good return.

Agreed, you'd have to be getting an A type of prospect plus at least a B prospect as well (if not two B prospects) in return for Javy. That is if you were dealing him for a prospect. Ideally, one of those prospects would be a CF prospect with speed and one to two pitching prospects.

[Kalapse]

I think your kidding yourself if you think Lowe or Sheets will be affordable. Both are likely to command 13-15 mil per year over 4-5 years. Remember Vazquez and his 4.5ish era gets 11.5M, Lily and his 4.2 era gets $12M, etc.

The 36 year old Lowe will probably get a 3 year deal around what Jason Schmidt got last offseason, 3 years $47M. If I had to guess I'd say Lowe gets 3 years, $42M with maybe a vesting/team option for a 4th year (though Boras doesn't like to include options) at $14.5/$15M and a $3M buyout. ($45M guaranteed)

 

Sheets should get 4 or 5 years at around $13-$16M per. Even with his major durability issues he's a 30 year old with #1 type stuff. Think AJ Burnett's '06 deal (5 years, $55M) adjusted for Sheets' superior resume and the current market. If I had to guess on Sheets I'd say 4 years, $60M with a vesting option for a 5th and a $4M buyout. ($64M guaranteed)

[greg775]

How come the Brewers can make a run at CC but we can't?

Attendance has been great on the south side.

Sox need to make a splash of some kind, folks.

If we hadn't squeaked out Minnesota and won the division, people would be clamoring for a total rebuild.

[Disco72]

How come the Brewers can make a run at CC but we can't?

Attendance has been great on the south side.

Sox need to make a splash of some kind, folks.

If we hadn't squeaked out Minnesota and won the division, people would be clamoring for a total rebuild.

 

We'll see how much of a "run" they make. I would guess it'll be like the token offer the Sox gave Ventura so they can sell it to the fans that they "tried" but the player was just too greedy. I'll be shocked if CC stays in Milwaukee (and shocked if the Sox sign him).

[PorkChopExpress]

How come the Brewers can make a run at CC but we can't?

Attendance has been great on the south side.

Sox need to make a splash of some kind, folks.

If we hadn't squeaked out Minnesota and won the division, people would be clamoring for a total rebuild.

 

I don't think it's that the Sox can't, but that they won't. They don't like to give out long term contracts to pitchers, which CC will be looking for. He is going to want to stay in the NL because he wants to hit, so in order to go to the AL I think it will take an outrageous offer. That I do not want the Sox doing.

[witesoxfan]

How come the Brewers can make a run at CC but we can't?

Attendance has been great on the south side.

Sox need to make a splash of some kind, folks.

If we hadn't squeaked out Minnesota and won the division, people would be clamoring for a total rebuild.

 

Because KW and JR know a bad investment when they see it. Bartolo Colon, who has a very similar build and attacks hitters in pretty much the same way Sabathia does, though with slightly worse stuff at the time he hit free agency (but very good all the same), got a 4 year deal from the Angels. He didn't make it through those 4 years healthy. What makes you think Sabathia will remain healthy for the 6 or 7 years he'll end up getting?

[DBAHO]

Vazquez has a ton of value. Teams know they can get 30 starts, 200 + innings and K's, and a 4.25 ERA in the AL from him. While he's not a big game pitcher, he can help a team get the playoffs with his ability to eat innings and keep a team in the game.

 

If Javy could net the sox a SP who could be in the 2009 rotation plus another solid contributor in the bullpen or a young position player, I could see him being moved. But it would have to be a good return.

Here's my line of thinking on this scenario. I am a backer of Vazquez, who's not exactly flavor of the month round these parts after his finish to the season.

 

Milwaukee is going to lose both Sheets and C.C most likely. Now they could try to sign a FA SP such as Garland, but if I was KW, I'd offer them Vazquez to see what I could get in return. Rickie Weeks for CF for instance (possible B.J Upton type impact?).

 

The Mets are another team that may lose Perez and will need a replacement. So we have options there.

[DrunkBomber]

Id like to see us keep Javy and use him as the fifth starter and possibly make a trade for a guy who has a high risk reward. That way if he falters we can still go with Count when he comes back or Richard if needed and hope we pick the right guy and we would have at least 4 starters in good standing line up with Javy/Count/Richard used as the fifth.

[southsider2k5]

I know this has been said before, but I could really see the Sox brining back Freddy Garcia on a one year, incentive based deal, with maybe an option for '10. Freddy needs somewhere he can prove himself, the Sox need a stopgap while Contreras is out and some of the kids can mature into these spots.

[SoxFan562004]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/v/vazquja01.shtml

 

Javy has pitched over 200 innings in 8 of his 11 years in the bigs and his career ERA+ is 105. I wouldn't have much problem with the Sox bringing him back to be the 4th or 5th starter next year. Yeah, he completely s***s the bed in big games, but any team could have the schedule scenario the Sox had this year and have their 4th or 5th starter have to start multiple big games.

 

I would obviously love if they signed or traded for another 1 or 2, but I don't think that's very likely this offseason.

 

Danks

Floyd

MB

Javy

 

is a good start to a rotation. If they add another middle of the rotation guy and bounce Javy to 5 then that's a good rotation

 

[ILMOU]

I know this has been said before, but I could really see the Sox brining back Freddy Garcia on a one year, incentive based deal, with maybe an option for '10. Freddy needs somewhere he can prove himself, the Sox need a stopgap while Contreras is out and some of the kids can mature into these spots.

 

It's low-cost, low-risk and feel-good. I think you have an excellent point, it's a real possibility.

 

[beck72]

Here's my line of thinking on this scenario. I am a backer of Vazquez, who's not exactly flavor of the month round these parts after his finish to the season.

 

Milwaukee is going to lose both Sheets and C.C most likely. Now they could try to sign a FA SP such as Garland, but if I was KW, I'd offer them Vazquez to see what I could get in return. Rickie Weeks for CF for instance (possible B.J Upton type impact?).

 

The Mets are another team that may lose Perez and will need a replacement. So we have options there.

That's thinking outside the box. I don't know how Week would be in CF. But I could see something like getting a bat for Javy if the sox sign a Freddy Garcia, or get a 5th Starter type via trade elsewhere.