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QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 11:16 AM)
anyone following this closely? Is this likely to continue so long as the economy keeps "tanking" (pun most definitely intended)?

 

Possibly yes, but read this.

 

Also

On Monday Deutsche Bank lowered its 2009 oil price forecast by $25 a barrel, to $60, saying the price could bottom out at $50, "We believe OPEC production cuts are inevitable in this environment, but the experience of 1998 and 2001 suggests the cartel will struggle to cut production as fast as world growth is slowing," the bank said.
Edited by G&T
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The problem for Opec right now is that their cartel or oligopoly is dependent on a natural resource and that there are other resources that can compete with it.

 

In the general oligopoly model (like Coke or Beer) only a few competitors exist with the same product and they are thus able to set prices without much regard to other competitors because the price of entry into the market is so high that it is prohibitive to competition. Thus if a new brand of beer was introduced it would be very hard for them to compete because their costs would be so high and thus the product would cost much more compared to the other brands already on the market.

 

Oil is different because its not the price to enter that dictates the oligopoly market, but instead it is the access to a resource. Like any resource oil is limited in its supply, so Opec needs to balance the supply it has versus the demand now, versus the demand in the future. And that is where things are starting to get tricky for Opec. The old model for Opec was that demand was constantly increasing, therefore over time the price of oil was going to continually rise.

 

Therefore the only concern for Opec was supply, and in the simplest economic terms, the price of a product is where the supply curve and the demand curve intersect. Opec was artificially increasing the price by constantly controlling the supply, ie: If demand is equal or increasing and supply is equal or decreasing, the price of product has to go up. And this was good for OPEC because as stated earlier, oil is a resource and therefore it can be all used. By creating higher prices now they were protecting themselves in the future.

 

The problem with this model began to show itself over the summer. As prices went up drastically, demand started to decline. This is problematic for the cartel because for most of its existence demand has been at worst equal, but normally increasing. Thus the cartel was forced to increase the supply of oil (increase of supply with decrease of demand equals decrease of prices) and gas prices went down.

 

But now the question is did the last price gouging of oil start the process of decreased demand. Oil prices hit the point where driving and using gasoline was no longer considered "necessary" and instead was considered "luxury". If demand of oil is truly going to see a decrease in the future (next 10 years) then Opec has to start considering what is the best approach to oil sales. Is it best to sell lower quantities at higher prices, or is it best to sell higher quantities at lower prices. My belief is that the latter would be better for OPEC in that if they create low oil prices people will once again start to return to their old dependent ways. This will give Opec another X years of foreign oil dependence and they will still be able to make money. On the other hand if they try and just constantly raise prices I think that you will see other energy industries start to develop much faster.

 

Thus in the simplest terms, decrease in supply with consistent demand should always equal higher prices, so oil/gas should go up in price.

 

The question is what is OPEC really going to do, they have to see the writing on the wall and at some point they are going to have to ask have they killed the goose that lays the golden egg.

Edited by Soxbadger
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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 04:31 PM)
Not counting the government subsidies, of course ;)

 

It is 2.22 in Des Moines as well.

 

Everyone here gets the Plus blend. It's just what we do.

 

If stations in Iowa list one price, it's for Plus, not regular unleaded.

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