The Presidential Prediction Poll

[sox4lifeinPA]

Just curious

[Reddy]

prolly in between, but closer to the landslide.

[HuskyCaucasian]

prolly in between, but closer to the landslide.

agreed. I call 52% or 53%. Maybe as low as 51%.

Edited October 24, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[Reddy]

agreed. I call 52% or 53%. Maybe as low as 51%.

im thinking 53%

[Balta1701]

im thinking 53%

It's also possible Obama could get 52-53% and still win by 8-9 if Barr or Nader siphon off a point or two.

[mr_genius]

I predict a 7% point Obama win of the popular vote, which is about as close to a landslide you can get with the polarization our country has embraced.

 

I also predict a robust electoral college win.

[sox4lifeinPA]

I predict a 7% point Obama win of the popular vote, which is about as close to a landslide you can get with the polarization our country has embraced.

 

I also predict a robust electoral college win.

 

I think not as many republicans vote obama as expected but new voter turn out and 18-30 year olds show up for once and make a difference.

 

I could see McCain squeaking, but being realistic Obama wins with 53-55%

[mr_genius]

I think not as many republicans vote obama as expected but new voter turn out and 18-30 year olds show up for once and make a difference.

 

I could see McCain squeaking, but being realistic Obama wins with 53-55%

 

I don't think a lot of Republicans will vote Obama, but there are a lot that are pretty much fed up with the Republican party and will stay home. Obama will get a lot of new voters in his tally. I don't think it's going to be as close as some of the polls are showing.

 

How you been? long time no post.

[knightni]

Everyone here thought that Kerry was going to win in '04 and was shocked that Bush repeated.

Most people here are going to be shocked again when the silent, non internet-using Republican voters pop out of the woodwork on November 4th.

 

I think that it will be a nail biter again, but that Obama will barely pull it out by taking a couple of Southern states away from McCain that Bush carried the last two elections.

[StrangeSox]

Electoral college landslide, but not a 55/45 popular vote split.

 

How many republicans post on a message board isn't my barometer. Barack is now opening up even bigger leads in the polls after McCain's "dead cat bounce."

[lostfan]

Everyone here thought that Kerry was going to win in '04 and was shocked that Bush repeated.

Most people here are going to be shocked again when the silent, non internet-using Republican voters pop out of the woodwork on November 4th.

 

I think that it will be a nail biter again, but that Obama will barely pull it out by taking a couple of Southern states away from McCain that Bush carried the last two elections.

I was overseas at the time but I don't remember the '04 race ever being comfortably in Kerry's court before the inaccurate exit polling (probably the source of people remembering it this way), not once. Every time I looked at the polls that summer, which was about twice a week, they were a dead heat within the margin of error, usually Bush would be up 1 or 2%. And Kerry definitely didn't have this massive polling gap that Obama has right now.

 

There's plenty of internet-using Republicans... you just don't see them here because this is a Chicago-centric board and there's like 17 Republicans in the entire city.

Edited October 24, 2008 by lostfan

[NorthSideSox72]

Everyone here thought that Kerry was going to win in '04 and was shocked that Bush repeated.

Most people here are going to be shocked again when the silent, non internet-using Republican voters pop out of the woodwork on November 4th.

 

I think that it will be a nail biter again, but that Obama will barely pull it out by taking a couple of Southern states away from McCain that Bush carried the last two elections.

non-internet using? Most polls are conducted by phone.

 

[Texsox]

McCain. Pollsters will say later that respondents were afraid to appear as racist by not picking Obama but once they were in the privacy of the voters booth, they pulled hard for McCain.

[Texsox]

non-internet using? Most polls are conducted by phone.

 

I think he was referring to what seems like a landslide because the people we hear from on forums, emails, etc.

[NorthSideSox72]

I think he was referring to what seems like a landslide because the people we hear from on forums, emails, etc.

Oh jeez, I hope no one is actually using internet blogs/board comments, etc., to show who is winning. That would be a little ridiculous.

 

[StrangeSox]

I was overseas at the time but I don't remember the '04 race ever being comfortably in Kerry's court before the inaccurate exit polling (probably the source of people remembering it this way), not once. Every time I looked at the polls that summer, which was about twice a week, they were a dead heat within the margin of error, usually Bush would be up 1 or 2%. And Kerry definitely didn't have this massive polling gap that Obama has right now.

 

There's plenty of internet-using Republicans... you just don't see them here because this is a Chicago-centric board and there's like 17 Republicans in the entire city.

 

Electoral-vote.com (another poll-of-polls website) had Kerry winning it close, but that's because they got OH wrong. They nailed every other state.

[NorthSideSox72]

McCain. Pollsters will say later that respondents were afraid to appear as racist by not picking Obama but once they were in the privacy of the voters booth, they pulled hard for McCain.

That's the fear factor I've been talking about. But at this point, Obama's leads where it matters are so dominant, I don't think the fear factor can overcome them.

 

Obama wins in a tighter than polled race.

 

 

[BigSqwert]

McCain is already behind the eight ball as early voting results have been much more favorable for Obama. I'm reading everywhere that Dem turnout has been very strong so far.

[lostfan]

Electoral-vote.com (another poll-of-polls website) had Kerry winning it close, but that's because they got OH wrong. They nailed every other state.

Damn, they have it 375-157 Obama.

[StrangeSox]

Damn, they have it 375-157 Obama.

 

So does 538.com this morning. You have to filter out Nate Silver's obvious (D) bias in his comments, but his statistical analysis seems to be solid.

[Texsox]

Oh jeez, I hope no one is actually using internet blogs/board comments, etc., to show who is winning. That would be a little ridiculous.

I think it goes to explaining the "buzz" that is clearly Obama around electronic communications. We are all informal pollsters. We hear from friends and coworkers who they are voting for. We read comments on message boards. We read some of the professional polls, then make predictions.And that is what this thread is really all about. If not, just average all the polls and we all should have the exact same prediction.

[lostfan]

So maybe I'm off about the polls in 2004 - like I said, I wasn't tracking them every day. Maybe because it was a different poll I was looking at every time, and the media likes to play the whole "close race" game so they push the closest poll. The big gap in September is probably from the convention though.

[Texsox]

That's the fear factor I've been talking about. But at this point, Obama's leads where it matters are so dominant, I don't think the fear factor can overcome them.

 

Obama wins in a tighter than polled race.

 

Not fear at all. It's the same phenomenon that had people telling surveys they are watching Masterpiece Theater when they are watching Dukes of Hazard. Imagine polling people on their masturbation habits. In the words of House, "people lie". In this case, perhaps not out of fear but out of wanting the pollster's approval.

[lostfan]

I think it goes to explaining the "buzz" that is clearly Obama around electronic communications. We are all informal pollsters. We hear from friends and coworkers who they are voting for. We read comments on message boards. We read some of the professional polls, then make predictions.And that is what this thread is really all about. If not, just average all the polls and we all should have the exact same prediction.

There's plenty of anti-Obama electronic buzz too. It depends where you go. If all you do is read left-slanting sites then all you'll see is pro-Obama buzz. My school has a lot of military people in it so it's mostly conservative, so on my school's message board I see plenty of anti-Obama posts in there, plenty of Palin love.

 

And then you figure that most of us are from Chicago... what's Chicago, 80, 85% Dem? Me myself, I still live in a blue state so the "buzz" here is going to be obvious.

[NorthSideSox72]

I think it goes to explaining the "buzz" that is clearly Obama around electronic communications. We are all informal pollsters. We hear from friends and coworkers who they are voting for. We read comments on message boards. We read some of the professional polls, then make predictions.And that is what this thread is really all about. If not, just average all the polls and we all should have the exact same prediction.

I certainly don't make predictions on the Presidential election based on personal anecdotal information. That would be silly. I don't do it based on internet "buzz" either. That would be silly. My predictions are based on the pool of current polls, sites like RCP and 538, and any trends I've seen over the years that may not reflect in the polls.