The Presidential Prediction Poll

[Texsox]

 

Dewey was up in all the polls. I ask y'all that are convinced, why even go to the polls if we know the winner?

[knightni]

Why would conservatives not answer polls? What evidence do you have that this is true?

 

I don't have direct evidence other than last year's election results versus the poll results.

 

A lot of times, the conservative church people and the over 65 contingent, avoid political interaction until election day. I know this because I'm surrounded by them over here.

Plus, you'll be surprised how quickly a normally Dem-leaning older person will vote for the old white guy with the military record when he's going against a minority.

[BigSqwert]

 

Dewey was up in all the polls. I ask y'all that are convinced, why even go to the polls if we know the winner?

 

For someone so anti-poll why did you participate in this thread, which is a poll?

[bmags]

I assume that polls may have gotten better since 48

[NorthSideSox72]

I don't have direct evidence other than last year's election results versus the poll results.

 

A lot of times, the conservative church people and the over 65 contingent, avoid political interaction until election day. I know this because I'm surrounded by them over here.

Plus, you'll be surprised how quickly a normally Dem-leaning older person will vote for the old white guy with the military record when he's going against a minority.

The EARLY exit polls were off by a few points, but the final ones were nearly dead-on, as it turned out.

 

And the pre-election day polls were quite close as well.

 

[Texsox]

Actually a better answer is the "likely voters polled" have to actually vote. And of course there are factors here that help each candidate. Normally, the gray hairs are much more likely to vote and, I'm guessing here, that they favor McCain. What I am not certain of is which group is most likely to vote, those who favor the candidate who is leading in the polls and has already won, or the candidate that has already lost. Again, a guess, I think this may favor Obama as some voters will want to cast a ballot for the first black President.

 

And I actually like polls. I'm just thinking there is more Obama bias than McCain.

[StrangeSox]

You're missing my original comment.

 

People who come out election day and right-lean, are people who are less likely to use the internet or answer polls (conservative church-goers, retirees, military personnel, etc.)

 

If this were true, we'd see this bias against polls again and again. If this effect is real, the pollsters make attempts to correct for it.

[NorthSideSox72]

If this were true, we'd see this bias against polls again and again. If this effect is real, the pollsters make attempts to correct for it.

Just to throw this out there... it could be real, but offset by other factors.

 

[longshot7]

Kerry States + Iowa + New Mexico + either Colorado or Virginia = Obama victory. Why is this math so hard to comprehend? Which of these states is not going for Obama?

[NorthSideSox72]

Kerry States + Iowa + New Mexico + either Colorado or Virginia = Obama victory. Why is this math so hard to comprehend? Which of these states is not going for Obama?

VA won't, IMO. But CO will. And OH. And possibly MT and/or FL and/or IN. So yeah, that's why I think its Obama to win, though by closer margins than the polls indicate.

 

[Balta1701]

VA won't, IMO. But CO will. And OH. And possibly MT and/or FL and/or IN. So yeah, that's why I think its Obama to win, though by closer margins than the polls indicate.

Out of the supposed swing states, aside from PA, VA polling has Obama having his biggest lead anywhere. Bigger than OH, CO, FL, MT, IN, etc.

[NorthSideSox72]

Out of the supposed swing states, aside from PA, VA polling has Obama having his biggest lead anywhere. Bigger than OH, CO, FL, MT, IN, etc.

Not from what I have seen. Last couple I've seen are +2 and +6.

 

And remember, I'm a believer in unreflected fear and bias, and VA has a deep conservative streak. I am thinking McCain takes VA, IN and possibly FL.

 

Obama takes OH, CO, NM, NV.

 

MT is right on the fence.

 

ETA: PA goes Obama.

 

[Balta1701]

Not from what I have seen. Last couple I've seen are +2 and +6.

 

And remember, I'm a believer in unreflected fear and bias, and VA has a deep conservative streak. I am thinking McCain takes VA, IN and possibly FL.

 

Obama takes OH, CO, NM, NV.

 

MT is right on the fence.

The pollster.com VA composite right now is 51.5/44 in Virginia, a 7.5 point difference. Pre-election polling almost never misses by more than 6.

 

Ohio is a 4 point Obama lead, Florida is a 2.2 point O lead, CO is 50.9/45.2 (good sized but smaller than VA), IN is literally tied at 47, new mexico is 50.4/43.9. Nevada is O by 2.2. In the composite right now, Obama has a bigger lead in Virginia than in any other state you mention.

[Harry Chappas]

I know it won't happen but remember the electoral map when Reagan won in 1984. Didn't he win every state except Minnesota, Mondale's home state.

 

This, the '79 blizzard ramifications and Bernard Epton are my earlist political memories.

[Chet Lemon]

I know it won't happen but remember the electoral map when Reagan won in 1984. Didn't he win every state except Minnesota, Mondale's home state.

 

Indeed he did

 

[vandy125]

Indeed he did

 

DC was the only other place that Mondale got electoral votes. Here is the map.

[mr_genius]

I would think race is a bigger issue then sex. How many people do you run across in your lifetime that despise women?

 

true. but i think the power of the racist vote has been greatly over-estimated.

[Chet Lemon]

DC was the only other place that Mondale got electoral votes. Here is the map.

 

But the question was clearly asking if Reagan won every state except for MN. DC is not a state, therefore Reagan won every state except the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

 

My '08 prediction: Obama wins all the states Kerry won + NM, IA, CO, NV, and OH. Those are in order of my confidence in each prediction. Percentage-wise in terms of my confidence: 99% about NM & IA. 90% about CO. 80% about NV, and 60% about OH.

[mr_genius]

 

knightni, that is the best avatar i've ever seen

 

 

i salute you

Edited October 24, 2008 by mr_genius

[vandy125]

But the question was clearly asking if Reagan won every state except for MN. DC is not a state, therefore Reagan won every state except the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

 

Yep, which is why I called it a place, not a state. I just thought the map was interesting, and it seemed a little weird that DC of all places went that way as well.

[longshot7]

true. but i think the power of the racist vote has been greatly over-estimated.

 

Totally. The Bradley Effect is dead.

[Nokona]

 

Dewey was up in all the polls. I ask y'all that are convinced, why even go to the polls if we know the winner?

 

You realize the last polls taken in that race were at the end of August right?

[knightni]

knightni, that is the best avatar i've ever seen

 

 

i salute you

 

I'm sure that you'll love this one, then.

[whitesoxfan101]

Obama wins a squeaker, and John McCain spends the rest of his life regretting the Sarah Palin pick that cost him the presidency.

[sox4lifeinPA]

I don't think a lot of Republicans will vote Obama, but there are a lot that are pretty much fed up with the Republican party and will stay home. Obama will get a lot of new voters in his tally. I don't think it's going to be as close as some of the polls are showing.

 

How you been? long time no post.

 

I've been good. I'm back in school now that my wife is working. I don't get the same amount of internet time anymore now that I don't sit at my desk all day. I've been having some good political conversations with friends and family and pretty much in my social circle of christian friends if you're under 30, you're voting Obama.

 

I'm finding that the social justice movement is driving christians more than stereotypical issues like abortion. I think the only chance Republicans have for ever winning another election is changing their stances government programs for education, health and welness, etc., at least if they want the emerging christian vote.

 

Personally, I think the biggest issues we are facing are: need for alternative power(solar panels on every home, wind harvesting fields in the midwest, natural gas conversions for cars) and taking care of our troops coming home from Iraq(GI Bill, top notch health care facilities, long term care and mental health care)

 

Both candidates would be good one of those but not both. There is no candidate for me, so honestly, I don't care who wins. I'll probably vote McCain, so the carnage isn't too bad.