Swisher Analysis

[joeynach]

This article examines a few sabremetric stats from Swisher's 2008 campaign. We all know the low batting average (almost Uribe esq) bothered us most of the year. Still, Swishers repuation as an on base guy was supposed to be his crowing attribute. With an OBP of around .350 in mid Aug it looked like a manageable year from Swish, but his Sept slump really killed his numbers, ending with an obp of .332. A lot of people soured on Swisher as a result calling for Kenny to unload him this offseason. Anyway, here is the gist of the articles explanation for Swisher's career worst year.

 

There is an explanation for Swisher's poor performance this year, however, and it's as simple as Swisher being incredibly unlucky.

 

Swisher's 2008 line drive rate of .204 was the highest of his career, but his BABIP—which, if a player is neither lucky nor unlucky, should be .120 higher than his LD rate—was .251, just 0.47 points higher than his LD rate. That's not just unlucky—that's ridiculously unlucky.

 

The article then goes on to summarize their opinion of Swisher.

 

Swisher's sweet swing wasn't around much in 2008, but his extraordinarily low BABIP and the fact that he did have that swing for at least short periods give reason to believe that Swisher will return to around his career norms in 2009. It's far too early to give up on Swisher, who will be 28 on Opening Day next year.

 

Just another way to look at the whole Swisher situation.

[Reddy]

this has been what i've said all year and what i'll continue to say. trading him would be a mistake.

[Dick Allen]

Whether or not trading him would be a mistake would have to be determined by what would be coming back. Look at Brad Wilkerson. Very similar players. Hit for a mediocre at best average, nice power, a lot of walks and a lot of strikeouts, and then Wilkerson went from a pitcher's park in Washington to a hitter's haven in Texas and he sucked even more. Sounds familar. Its possible, despite his age, we have seen the best of Nick Swisher. That $20+ million still owed to him just may make KW wince a little bit. He's not a CF. LF and RF and 1B and DH are taken. He's a 10th or 11th man right now.

[caulfield12]

Well, every GM makes a mistake now and then. You could have argued the merits of Vazquez/Young after 07 and still it will be a long debate over who won that trade.

 

At least, we know one thing, FDLS and Gio Gonzalez are highly unlikely to be top-line starting pitchers in the majors and Ryan Sweeney is not well-suited for the power game of Comiskey...although he's a good athlete and has many skills you'd like to see in a young outfielder, he was never a very good fit for our style of play unless he could play CF adequately, which is questionable at best.

 

The only really bad contracts we have right now are Contreras and McDougal...Dotel, coming off the way he pitched in the post-season, doesn't look HORRIBLE, but $6.5 million is a LOT for a set-up guy that's not close to automatic, like Linebrink was the first half of the season, or Hermanson was in 2005.

 

Of course, Konerko's and Thome's deal aren't the best in the world either, but as a White Sox fan, you can't really argue they're terrible...NOT signing Paulie after 2005 would have sent a bad message to the fanbase. And we're still getting some money (apparently) to subsidize the Thome deal (in fact, the Philly won't have any problem at all paying that out after this week).

 

In fact, it was holding onto Dye and Buehrle that largely allowed this team to hang on and make the playoffs this year, instead of going into more of a youth phase (hard to do that without any young players in your system!).

 

 

[kwolf68]

Whether or not trading him would be a mistake would have to be determined by what would be coming back. Look at Brad Wilkerson. Very similar players. Hit for a mediocre at best average, nice power, a lot of walks and a lot of strikeouts, and then Wilkerson went from a pitcher's park in Washington to a hitter's haven in Texas and he sucked even more. Sounds familar. Its possible, despite his age, we have seen the best of Nick Swisher. That $20+ million still owed to him just may make KW wince a little bit. He's not a CF. LF and RF and 1B and DH are taken. He's a 10th or 11th man right now.

 

 

I agree. I thought Swisher was severely over-rated 2 years ago. His holes in his swing are many and the As correctly dealt him before diminishing returns set in.

 

Even though Gio, Sweeney and DLS may never pan out in any big way, I still believe we could have gotten a far better bounty for our top 3 spects than a career sub .250 hitter who does little well other than walk and hit a homer now and then. The trade was a crap trade, but Kenny did make several other really good deals to make up for it (CQ, Floyd, Thornton, etc...plus the pickup of Alexei, which may have been Kenny getting lucky when Fukodome went with the Cubs, which directed his attention to Alexei, thank goodness)

 

[joeynach]

Whether or not trading him would be a mistake would have to be determined by what would be coming back. Look at Brad Wilkerson. Very similar players. Hit for a mediocre at best average, nice power, a lot of walks and a lot of strikeouts, and then Wilkerson went from a pitcher's park in Washington to a hitter's haven in Texas and he sucked even more. Sounds familar. Its possible, despite his age, we have seen the best of Nick Swisher. That $20+ million still owed to him just may make KW wince a little bit. He's not a CF. LF and RF and 1B and DH are taken. He's a 10th or 11th man right now.

 

Sure...its possible that what you say is true, that the best of Swish is in the rear view mirror. Most likely though for a guy who is 27 years old, logic says that Swish still has some quality years ahead of him before an age related decline. Brad Wilkerson is currently 31 and not as good athletically than Swisher is. What if Swisher returns to 07 form, .262/.381/.455 with 22 hrs and 78 RBI, what if returns to 06 form .254/.372/.493 with 34 hrs and 95 RBI? The problem is that in those years Swisher was a 3/4/5 hitter, thus he was the benefactor of drawing more walks (OBP) and presumably getting better pitches (fastballs) with runners on base. The thing about being on the White Sox is that he is not better at hitting 3/4/5 than anything we have. In fact I see him basically taking Crede's spot in the lineup as long as the new 3B is brought in for Speed, OBP, AVG. The point is we had like 6 lumberjacks already in this lineup before Swish came in, now Crede and Griffey are gone with the possibilty that one of Dye/Thome/konerko could be gone as well. This could really open up more middle of the lineup opportunities for Swish to get back to his .255/.380/.475 line with his 25 HR pop...for only $5 mil.

[greg775]

Swisher's 2008 line drive rate of .204 was the highest of his career, but his BABIP—which, if a player is neither lucky nor unlucky, should be .120 higher than his LD rate—was .251, just 0.47 points higher than his LD rate. That's not just unlucky—that's ridiculously unlucky.

 

That's not to say Swisher is completely exonerated from his 2008 performance. He was caught in between for long stretches, taking pitches right down the middle and swinging at balls out of the zone.

 

 

--My gosh, how stats have changed. Can you imagine when Bill Melton played having all these wacky stats and some guy proclaiming much of your problems due to "bad luck?"

My god.

Swisher's batting average was horrific. It was a bad trade.

Can he rebound? I guess he can.

At least this writer was fair. He pointed out Swisher's taking those pitches right down the middle which was baffling to say the least.

The guy had a s***ty year. Can he have a monster year next year? I wouldn't think so. But I would think he'll be motivated right from the get-go if Ozzie doesn't beat the s*** out of him first. It was pretty apparent Oz thought the guy couldn't play down the stretch. I don't buy the fact he had to play Wise cause Griffey was so bad in CF he needed some more speed. Until proven otherwise I think he sat Swish late cause Swish stunk.

[joeynach]

I agree. I thought Swisher was severely over-rated 2 years ago. His holes in his swing are many and the As correctly dealt him before diminishing returns set in.

 

Even though Gio, Sweeney and DLS may never pan out in any big way, I still believe we could have gotten a far better bounty for our top 3 spects than a career sub .250 hitter who does little well other than walk and hit a homer now and then. The trade was a crap trade, but Kenny did make several other really good deals to make up for it (CQ, Floyd, Thornton, etc...plus the pickup of Alexei, which may have been Kenny getting lucky when Fukodome went with the Cubs, which directed his attention to Alexei, thank goodness)

 

And fukudome looks like the worst acquisition of the off season.

[kwolf68]

And fukudome looks like the worst acquisition of the off season.

 

 

I agree and I know Kenny was hard after him. When he went to the Cubs we quickly scooped up Alexei and he was a total gem. I am GLAD Fukodome didn't sign with the Sox, because it gave us leverage to go out and bring in a kid like ARam.

 

 

[joeynach]

--My gosh, how stats have changed. Can you imagine when Bill Melton played having all these wacky stats and some guy proclaiming much of your problems due to "bad luck?"

My god.

Swisher's batting average was horrific. It was a bad trade.

Can he rebound? I guess he can.

At least this writer was fair. He pointed out Swisher's taking those pitches right down the middle which was baffling to say the least.

The guy had a s***ty year. Can he have a monster year next year? I wouldn't think so. But I would think he'll be motivated right from the get-go if Ozzie doesn't beat the s*** out of him first. It was pretty apparent Oz thought the guy couldn't play down the stretch. I don't buy the fact he had to play Wise cause Griffey was so bad in CF he needed some more speed. Until proven otherwise I think he sat Swish late cause Swish stunk.

 

I think another way to look at this whole Swisher was soo unlucky with his line drives thing is the notion that you create your own luck. Its the same concept in poker. For example when lets say u make a strait and you try and get coy and check hopeing to check raise. Meanwhile a guy with a flush draw is allowed to see another card and hits a flush on you and now has you beat. Some people would say he look how unlucky I am that his flush card came out. The real statement is hey bet the crap out of your strait, to make him fold, and eliminate the draws that can result in you losing the hand..no lucky cards can come. Same with Swish in the sense that maybe his line drives were right at someone becuase of his approach. Maybe he was constantly lining out to 1B or RF and trying to pull everything. So the defense would just hug the 1B line and get ready for the eventual At him ball. Not that know this to be 100% certain, but just a thought.

Edited October 28, 2008 by joeynach

[ThunderBolt]

Swisher's batting average was horrific. It was a bad trade.

Batting average is a meaningless statistic in the greater scheme of things. Batting Average does not a good player make.

[greg775]

Batting average is a meaningless statistic in the greater scheme of things. Batting Average does not a good player make.

 

You know what? I respectfully disagree. The guy hit .210. That simply sucks. I don't care how many OBP stats, etc., you unveil. The guy had a very miniscule number of hits. Swisher had a s***ty season and I feel his batting average showed that. I mean Sox pitcher Gary Peters back in the day could have outhit Swisher this season.

Edited October 28, 2008 by greg775

[joeynach]

Thanks Yoda.

 

 

 

Greg, are you seriously making the argument that these "wacky" stats are a bad thing? Shame on people stepping outside the box(BABIP is hardly stepping outside the box) to form an opinion on a certain player. If the statistics are available, why would you not use them?

 

The writer isn't saying Swisher had a good season. Far from it. What he is asking is for people to look a little deeper at the situation, and you might see a case for Nick being a little snake bitten this season, and a rebound in 2009 isn't out of the question.

 

Very well summarized.

[ThunderBolt]

Thanks Yoda.

Sorry, it's late. I was feeling philosophical.

[witesoxfan]

Batting average is a meaningless statistic in the greater scheme of things. Batting Average does not a good player make.

 

I'll disagree with this 100%. You can be a damn good player without batting average, but batting average CAN make a good player. If Alexei hits .270 this season, he's a statistical liability at the plate; those 10 extra hits he got to make it .290 rather than .270 turned him from a slightly below average hitter to a slightly above average hitter.

 

A high batting average will also bring a player's OBP and SLG up. Alexei Ramirez was a better hitter than Nick Swisher this season because he hit 70 points higher; his OBP was 15 points worse. If the same hypothetical from above is brought in here, Alexei's OBP would have been lower than .300 using the same IsoOBP.

[jenksycat]

I have a minor annoyance at one of the idiots on CTL. He was just talking about how aweful Swisher was and how we should beg another team to take him and we'll pay half his salary....then he went on to say how the Cubs simply can't give up on f***indome so quickly. So why does FookiDummy get another shot, despite accomplishing absolute dick in the MLB over Swisher?

 

Would you rather be stuck with a 40 million dollar stubborn mute?

[greg775]

Good points, I even said I think it's possible Swish rebounds.

I just don't like the "bad luck" argument at all. It just doesn't make sense to me.

[Dick Allen]

Sure...its possible that what you say is true, that the best of Swish is in the rear view mirror. Most likely though for a guy who is 27 years old, logic says that Swish still has some quality years ahead of him before an age related decline. Brad Wilkerson is currently 31 and not as good athletically than Swisher is. What if Swisher returns to 07 form, .262/.381/.455 with 22 hrs and 78 RBI, what if returns to 06 form .254/.372/.493 with 34 hrs and 95 RBI? The problem is that in those years Swisher was a 3/4/5 hitter, thus he was the benefactor of drawing more walks (OBP) and presumably getting better pitches (fastballs) with runners on base. The thing about being on the White Sox is that he is not better at hitting 3/4/5 than anything we have. In fact I see him basically taking Crede's spot in the lineup as long as the new 3B is brought in for Speed, OBP, AVG. The point is we had like 6 lumberjacks already in this lineup before Swish came in, now Crede and Griffey are gone with the possibilty that one of Dye/Thome/konerko could be gone as well. This could really open up more middle of the lineup opportunities for Swish to get back to his .255/.380/.475 line with his 25 HR pop...for only $5 mil.

Wilkerson fell apart when he was 27-28. He played CF. Stole some bases. Look at his seasons when he was 24-26. Its pretty similar, if not better than Swisher. Swisher still strikes out way too much for a guy who isn't going hit 40 homers. I highly doubt Swisher batting 3, 4 or 5 makes his batting average and OBP rise as much as you hope. The guy didn't even hit .200 on the road. It seems to me he's a candidate to get blamed for taking some things maybe he shouldn't have.

[joejoesox]

it's a shame Swisher can't play 3rd

[Heads22]

Good points, I even said I think it's possible Swish rebounds.

I just don't like the "bad luck" argument at all. It just doesn't make sense to me.

 

Guys have to have below average years or they wouldn't have average years at all.

[ThunderBolt]

I'll disagree with this 100%. You can be a damn good player without batting average, but batting average CAN make a good player.

How can you disagree with me 100% when you just validated one of my claims in your opening sentence?

[witesoxfan]

How can you disagree with me 100% when you just validated one of my claims in your opening sentence?

 

Because you said batting average is a meaningless statistic and batting average does not make a player good. I said you can be a good player without having a good batting average, but batting average can make a player good.

 

You follow yet?

 

I think I made my point as to which of the claims I disagreed completely with, and if you really want me to go edit my post because I was too lazy to take out 6 words, I really will. I have no problem with it.

[elrockinMT]

this has been what i've said all year and what i'll continue to say. trading him would be a mistake.

 

 

Yep

[santo=dorf]

Konerko had a .248 BABIP and a LD% of 21.5. He was even more "ridculously unlucky" than Swisher but put up better numbers, yet some people think Konerko must be traded for anything and Swish should be moved to first.

 

GMAB

[greg775]

this has been what i've said all year and what i'll continue to say. trading him would be a mistake.

 

Is that because you think we can't get anything good for him (which I'd agree with) or the fact you think he's going to help us win a division and advance in the playoffs (I have some serious doubts about that).