The Great Southern California Shakeout thread

[Balta1701]

At 10:00 a.m. on Thursday, November 13th, the Southern California region is planning to undertake the largest earthquake preparedness drill in U.S. history. We're trying to simulate in extraordinary detail what would happen if there was a reasonable magnitude shock hitting the southern stretch of the San Andreas Fault.

 

For you southern Californians out there, if your business or family hasn't registered to be a part of this event yet, please encourage your supervisors to do so, or if you are the supervisor...get in gear!

 

To do a true earthquake practice drill, a number of things have to come together. Emergency services want to know where the worst areas are going to be, how many casualties they're going to be looking at, etc. Infrastructure organizations need to know what things are going to be out of commission. Governments need to know whether or not their communications will work. The everyday person probably wants to know whether or not their house will be standing and whether or not they can get home if it happens.

 

What we're trying to do for this one is simulate as realistic of an event as we possibly can. A magnitude 7.8 earthquake nucleating near the southern end of the San Andreas Fault near the Salton Sea and running north up to roughly the point that the 14 crosses the fault on the northern side of the San Gabriel Mountains. Taking probably 25 years of work, they've simulated a reasonable set of motions along the fault, taken the energies released by this event, and propagated them throughout the L.A. basin to accurately simulate the damage the basin would take in particular areas.

 

A noteworthy feature of this scenario is that it is a reasonable event...not a worst case scenario. This is an average scale event on the San Andreas, and on average, there is roughly a 2% chance per year of this level of event actually happening.

 

At 10 a.m. on the 13th of November, a video will play on your local TV and radio stations and probably on a lot of websites for about 2 minutes saying "This is an earthquake drill. Please take cover. If this was a real earthquake, stop driving if you're in your car. Don't actually stop your car now!" and so on, showing recorded footage from other events, etc. After that, the businesses that have registered and all of the emergency services are going to spin up as though that event really happened, to try to see how they respond and to give them legitimate practice for an event that genuinely destroys everything and overwhelms every single response capacity.

 

If your business hasn't registered yet, please do so. If nothing else, it's a good idea for everyone to spend a few moments thinking about how they'd respond to this event, because within about 50 years, one like this is probably going to happen, and it could well happen soon.

 

I'll keep this thread running by giving some of the more interesting details of what will happen when the San Andreas goes, and if you'd like to learn more, please ask!

[kapkomet]

Um, November 13th, not October 13th? (opening sentance)

[Balta1701]

Um, November 13th, not October 13th? (opening sentance)

Oh Bloody Hell.

 

And it's spelled sentence

[southsider2k5]

I read that it wasn't the San Andreas fault that was expected to drop the "big one" but another fault a little further inland ( I forgot the name of it of course) Does that make sense?

[Balta1701]

I read that it wasn't the San Andreas fault that was expected to drop the "big one" but another fault a little further inland ( I forgot the name of it of course) Does that make sense?

There are quite a few other faults inland of the San Andreas, the Mojave desert is made up of dozens of 10-20 kilometer long faults that have moved around for the last 10 million years. In the past 20 years we've had 2 earthquakes on them, the Hector Mine earthquake in 99 and the Landers earthquake in 91. Both were magnitude 7 events. But the rub of these type of faults is...the rupture magnitude and intensity scales with the fault length. The San Andreas runs for hundreds of kilometers, and past ruptures along it have run for hundreds of kilometers. If you look at this map I stole...the section of the fault they're rupturing, which again is not the worst case scenario, basically runs from the Salton Sea up through Palmdale. We're talking about a fault breaking along a couple hundred kilometers of its length. The San Andreas is the only fault in this area capable of producing magnitude 8+ events, and for this simulation, they're shooting for "Average", not "Worst case scenario".

 

 

There are also some smaller faults that run within the L.A. basin that can do a lot of damage locally if they go (Northridge in 94 happened on one of those) but for raw power, there's nothing around here that can match the San Andreas.

[Balta1701]

To start us off here, I'll give you a primer on the kind of problems this area will be facing when the San Andreas goes by picking a particular problem and running through what will happen. I'll save some of the truly scary ones for later, but for starters...transportation.

 

It's possible that there may be some severe damage to local transportation that will prevent people from getting around. In the 89 San Francisco Earthquake we saw 1 highway totally collapse. Given these sorts of ground motions, it's likely that there will be a few bridges that will go down and block major transportation routes for days that way. There is also a lot of topography out here, and that is going to mean landslides. You can probably expect a few thousand of them large enough to block roads, especially up in the mountains in areas where there's only 1 road in and out. Getting to these people or getting help to those people is going to be especially difficult.

 

The real fun though is the San Andreas itself. Typically, we're talking about something like 5-10 meters, or 15-30 feet of movement on that fault if it snaps. A lot of the major highways around here go across that fault; the only one that really doesn't at any point is Highway 1 along the coast. The 10, the 14, the 15, and the 5, the routes connecting L.A. to Arizona, Vegas, and Northern California, and the associated rail lines, they are completely severed. The road is instantly impassible and every one of them will be blocked until they are completely rebuilt in the destroyed sections, which can take weeks.

 

On a given day in L.A., there are a couple hundred thousand people who commute from one side of the fault to the other, who work on one side of the fault and live on the other. If this fault snaps while they are at work, then a few hundred thousand people can't get home, and with communications down, they literally don't even know if their families are alive or not.

 

Even beyond that, the counties in L.A. aren't drawn with the San Andreas in mind, so at various places, the Fault cuts right through the middle of San Bernadino, Los Angeles, Riverside, and Kern counties. The big ones are the first 2; the fault splits them almost in half. Any county level emergency response system therefore...if it is run from one side of the fault, it will have no ability to communicate to the other side of the fault. Imagine sending a group of fire trucks to fight a new fire, the trucks head out, and suddenly they realize they can't get across the fault. Or the call never comes in because there's only 1 side of the county in touch with the county seat. Any service run at the county level therefore needs to have 2 command centers, one on each side of the fault, because otherwise, the fault will render it impossible for emergency services to reach anyone.

 

Going one step further, for everyone else out there...a huge fraction of the merchandise you buy at your local Walmart, all those things imported from China, Taiwan, Korea, etc., flows through the ports of L.A. and Long beach. The goods are unloaded there, loaded on trains or trucks, and shipped out across the country. The Earthquake will destroy those transportation routes. It will be weeks to months before a normal flow of goods can resume out of the city, maybe more. The rest of the country will suddenly see goods they thought were plenty vanish from storeshelves, because some of the biggest port complexes in the world can no longer reach them, and there's not enough spare capacity on the west coast to make up for those areas being cut off.

 

So, to summarize, everything goes to hell. You can't drive, you can't ship stuff, you need a lot of bulldozers, your roads are destroyed, and help can't get to you.

[Chisoxfn]

There are quite a few other faults inland of the San Andreas, the Mojave desert is made up of dozens of 10-20 kilometer long faults that have moved around for the last 10 million years. In the past 20 years we've had 2 earthquakes on them, the Hector Mine earthquake in 99 and the Landers earthquake in 91. Both were magnitude 7 events. But the rub of these type of faults is...the rupture magnitude and intensity scales with the fault length. The San Andreas runs for hundreds of kilometers, and past ruptures along it have run for hundreds of kilometers. If you look at this map I stole...the section of the fault they're rupturing, which again is not the worst case scenario, basically runs from the Salton Sea up through Palmdale. We're talking about a fault breaking along a couple hundred kilometers of its length. The San Andreas is the only fault in this area capable of producing magnitude 8+ events, and for this simulation, they're shooting for "Average", not "Worst case scenario".

 

 

There are also some smaller faults that run within the L.A. basin that can do a lot of damage locally if they go (Northridge in 94 happened on one of those) but for raw power, there's nothing around here that can match the San Andreas.

Isn't there like a Newport-Ingelwood fault that is relatively dormant but has the ability to have a more powerful earthquake than the San Andreas? It also happens to be in an area where a quake on the fault would have a significant impact on Orange County & LA. Or am I talking out of my ass?

[Chisoxfn]

To start us off here, I'll give you a primer on the kind of problems this area will be facing when the San Andreas goes by picking a particular problem and running through what will happen. I'll save some of the truly scary ones for later, but for starters...transportation.

 

It's possible that there may be some severe damage to local transportation that will prevent people from getting around. In the 89 San Francisco Earthquake we saw 1 highway totally collapse. Given these sorts of ground motions, it's likely that there will be a few bridges that will go down and block major transportation routes for days that way. There is also a lot of topography out here, and that is going to mean landslides. You can probably expect a few thousand of them large enough to block roads, especially up in the mountains in areas where there's only 1 road in and out. Getting to these people or getting help to those people is going to be especially difficult.

 

The real fun though is the San Andreas itself. Typically, we're talking about something like 5-10 meters, or 15-30 feet of movement on that fault if it snaps. A lot of the major highways around here go across that fault; the only one that really doesn't at any point is Highway 1 along the coast. The 10, the 14, the 15, and the 5, the routes connecting L.A. to Arizona, Vegas, and Northern California, and the associated rail lines, they are completely severed. The road is instantly impassible and every one of them will be blocked until they are completely rebuilt in the destroyed sections, which can take weeks.

 

On a given day in L.A., there are a couple hundred thousand people who commute from one side of the fault to the other, who work on one side of the fault and live on the other. If this fault snaps while they are at work, then a few hundred thousand people can't get home, and with communications down, they literally don't even know if their families are alive or not.

 

Even beyond that, the counties in L.A. aren't drawn with the San Andreas in mind, so at various places, the Fault cuts right through the middle of San Bernadino, Los Angeles, Riverside, and Kern counties. The big ones are the first 2; the fault splits them almost in half. Any county level emergency response system therefore...if it is run from one side of the fault, it will have no ability to communicate to the other side of the fault. Imagine sending a group of fire trucks to fight a new fire, the trucks head out, and suddenly they realize they can't get across the fault. Or the call never comes in because there's only 1 side of the county in touch with the county seat. Any service run at the county level therefore needs to have 2 command centers, one on each side of the fault, because otherwise, the fault will render it impossible for emergency services to reach anyone.

 

Going one step further, for everyone else out there...a huge fraction of the merchandise you buy at your local Walmart, all those things imported from China, Taiwan, Korea, etc., flows through the ports of L.A. and Long beach. The goods are unloaded there, loaded on trains or trucks, and shipped out across the country. The Earthquake will destroy those transportation routes. It will be weeks to months before a normal flow of goods can resume out of the city, maybe more. The rest of the country will suddenly see goods they thought were plenty vanish from storeshelves, because some of the biggest port complexes in the world can no longer reach them, and there's not enough spare capacity on the west coast to make up for those areas being cut off.

 

So, to summarize, everything goes to hell. You can't drive, you can't ship stuff, you need a lot of bulldozers, your roads are destroyed, and help can't get to you.

And thats why I have my 4x4 SUV, haha.

[Chisoxfn]

So I looked it up and apparently Newport-Inglewood is capable of a 6.0 – 7.4, which is obviously lower than the San Andreas. However, its the fault I know of closest to me so I'm just being selfish, haha.

[Balta1701]

And thats why I have my 4x4 SUV, haha.

Ever see the footage from 89 Loma Prieta of the couple cars driving off the section of the bay bridge that just collapsed?

[Chisoxfn]

Ever see the footage from 89 Loma Prieta of the couple cars driving off the section of the bay bridge that just collapsed?

Yes I have....but thats why I'm getting my hover car conversion. I'm actually kind of creeped out because it's been so long since we've had an earthquake and I remember growing up as a kid here going through numerous earthquakes.

[Balta1701]

Yes I have....but thats why I'm getting my hover car conversion. I'm actually kind of creeped out because it's been so long since we've had an earthquake and I remember growing up as a kid here going through numerous earthquakes.

Well, anyway, even if you have some sort of cross between a military hummer and a land rover, I'll have a few other ways to scare you in the coming days.

[whitesoxfan101]

This is a great idea, however I was talking to a close friend of mine who lives in Southern California (she is participating in this drill actually), and we agreed on something. This drill is a great idea, and could be an effective test run assuming a bigger earthquake hits in the near future. However, we agreed that it's always questionable how effective this will be in the sense that you never know how people will react under extreme circumstances. And as much as we hate to think about it, a lot of people would panic if something like this happened, especially in heavily populated Southern California. I hope the drill goes well though, and moreso I hope "the big one" doesn't come anytime soon.

Edited October 31, 2008 by whitesoxfan101

[dasox24]

Hey Balta, you have any info on the New Madrid fault? It hasn't done anything in like 200 years, and I think we're well overdue... aka, do I need to stay clear of Memphis for the foreseeable future? lol

[Balta1701]

Hey Balta, you have any info on the New Madrid fault? It hasn't done anything in like 200 years, and I think we're well overdue... aka, do I need to stay clear of Memphis for the foreseeable future? lol

The New Madrid Fault system is an odd one. It exists right in the middle of a plate, where it's difficult to get big earthquakes. But it's certainly there, and troublesome.

 

I've never really liked the studies I've seen on that one because most of them seem like they rate the recurrence interval too low, they tend to be a little too alarmist for the match I do in my head. I think about a 500 year recurrence interval for magnitude 8 events seems reasonable, and there are some numbers out there that say that. It's been 200 years since the last big one, but the last big one was a swarm of about 4 magnitude 7-8 events.

 

It's fairly likely that there will be a magnitude 6, slight damage, annoying type event on that system within the next 50-100 years. I think the next big one there is probably a couple hundred years off, but with faults, it's really hard to say that for sure. It could have a recurrence interval of 500 years, move 3 times in 200 years and then decide not to move again for 1500 years. You've got probably a 5% chance in the next 50-75 years of having another magnitude 8 event on that fault. On the other hand, the Southern San Andreas has probably a 95% chance of going within the next 50 years.

[kapkomet]

Well, so we never have to worry about earthquakes in Dallas, Texas, right? Nope.

 

We had two of them last night. I think I felt one, it felt like the washing machine was on spin cycle.

 

 

[dasox24]

The New Madrid Fault system is an odd one. It exists right in the middle of a plate, where it's difficult to get big earthquakes. But it's certainly there, and troublesome.

 

I've never really liked the studies I've seen on that one because most of them seem like they rate the recurrence interval too low, they tend to be a little too alarmist for the match I do in my head. I think about a 500 year recurrence interval for magnitude 8 events seems reasonable, and there are some numbers out there that say that. It's been 200 years since the last big one, but the last big one was a swarm of about 4 magnitude 7-8 events.

 

It's fairly likely that there will be a magnitude 6, slight damage, annoying type event on that system within the next 50-100 years. I think the next big one there is probably a couple hundred years off, but with faults, it's really hard to say that for sure. It could have a recurrence interval of 500 years, move 3 times in 200 years and then decide not to move again for 1500 years. You've got probably a 5% chance in the next 50-75 years of having another magnitude 8 event on that fault. On the other hand, the Southern San Andreas has probably a 95% chance of going within the next 50 years.

Makes me feel better. I had been hearing things years ago that said we should expect a 7.0+ earthquake in the next 10 years. So, I was beginning to think that would happen very soon.

 

Oh, and that sucks to be on the San Andreas. Pretty much inevitable I guess...

[Balta1701]

Makes me feel better. I had been hearing things years ago that said we should expect a 7.0+ earthquake in the next 10 years. So, I was beginning to think that would happen very soon.

 

Oh, and that sucks to be on the San Andreas. Pretty much inevitable I guess...

Let's put it this way...it's plausible. I'd say it's not as likely as a hurricane hitting NYC or a flood hitting Sacramento or an earthquake hitting San Fran or L.A., but it's at the next step down of major disasters. It'll happen at some point, and it could happen amazingly soon so it's worth taking some general precautions. i.e. make sure you know what your insurance covers, have your house bolted to the foundation, keep some extra water and canned goods around (good advice pretty much anywhere).

[Balta1701]

Today's fun bit...the electricity grid.

 

The Electricity grid for the state of California, and as we'll see, the Western U.S., runs through the same passes that the highways and other infrastructure run through. There is a hell of a lot of current running across those lines. Power from the deserts going in to the cities, etc. When you rupture the fault, you set off ten or twenty meters of displacement. Basically every electrical line crossing the fault gets cut.

 

That's when the fun begins. When a power line gets cut, especially a major one, it drives an electrical surge, because the current originally flowing to Southern California no longer has anywhere to go. This is what caused the cascade reaction that knocked out NYC's power a couple years ago. Except, this one is a far larger cutout. It happens in several places almost at once, and so the power feeds back as far as it can find a place to go.

 

In other words, power goes out in Southern California because so many of its lines get cut. But the power surge created feeds back through Vegas, Northern California, Arizona, and basically the entire Western part of the United States. The entire western United States power grid goes off line for multiple hours because of an event in Southern California. Most of the undamaged regions are restored within a day or two, but that alone causes significant turmoil, let alone the earthquake devastation in the area.

 

A fairly interesting feature of the power grid is that it actually responds at a rate greater than seismic waves can travel. The first cuttings of the power lines that start the surge happen in the southern part of the fault, the area that breaks first. The power cascade races ahead of the quake, and actually, reaches most of the developed areas a couple seconds before the initial shaking does (and the first wave, the P wave, is typically fairly small, the big ones come in a few seconds later). In other words...you actually get a warning when the big one happens. If your power goes out first, then a few seconds later you feel the ground shake...hold on, because this one is going to last a while.

 

The power grid itself will take heavy damage from the quake. It is not cheap to rebuild those severed power lines, and there will be a ton of damage throughout the city. Thankfully though, most of the power grid is above ground and is moderately easy to replace. But many businesses weren't ready for the quake. Their computers and data systems shorted out or took heavy damage. Some cause fires when the power does come back on. In many areas, it takes 1-2 months before regular electricity supplies are restored. Businesses lose records, transactions can't happen, the economy of the region is in shambles, and many people are starting over.

 

Some simple planning can help mitigate this. Remember you're in a disaster area. Back up your computer files as needed. Expect that it's going to happen. Spend some money on surge protectors. When the quake hits, before you evacuate your building, flip your circuit breakers off because it will help avoid fires. And try to have some idea of how you'll get by without power for a month or two.

[LosMediasBlancas]

Well, so we never have to worry about earthquakes in Dallas, Texas, right? Nope.

 

We had two of them last night. I think I felt one, it felt like the washing machine was on spin cycle.

 

 

They were a 2.5 and 3.0, those would barely be felt. Nothing like a washer in spin.

[kapkomet]

They were a 2.5 and 3.0, those would barely be felt. Nothing like a washer in spin.

 

Well, I should clarify, our house we have the washer on the second floor, and when it gets off balance, it shakes the whole subfloor. It kinda felt that way for about 5 seconds, just barely noticeable. The only reason I felt it was because I was reading, otherwise, I probably wouldn't have. Or maybe I'm just nuts.

[Balta1701]

Let's talk a bit about structural engineering and this level of earthquake.

 

We've learned a lot about how these type of waves impact buildings. And in general, the result isn't really good. Lots of standard building materials aren't able to take the type of 5-10 meter per second sideways accelerations that hit during one of these quakes.

 

The worst materials during a quake are materials that can't take tensional stress. Those are, essentially, brick and mortar buildings and unreinforced concrete buildings. IF you're in any of those when a quake, even smaller than the shakeout event, hits, then you're in some trouble. Get under the heaviest table you can find and expect bricks to be landing around you. And hope there's not 3 more floors above you. Quite simply, these buildings won't stand. And in terms of how many there are in the area...well, there's enough that there isn't the money to replace them all. And therefore, we're basically waiting for the demolition to be done for free, after which the government will probably step in and help pay for the new ones with insurance money.

 

What about a standard house? Well, one nice thing about wood frames is that wood can take sideways shear strain quite well. It can flex. So, if you're in a house with a wood frame, you're actually in decent shape. It will flex from side to side. Rigid things like your concrete driveway may fracture, if you have a brick chimney for example, look out for that, but the house itself is likely to survive.

 

But that's not the only thing a quake does. In an earthquake, there are waves polarized in all 3 directions, x, y, and z, and all areas inbetween. If you think about the waves as just x, y, and z, the x and y waves are the ones that shake you from side to side, the z waves toss you up and down. But, the z waves do the same to your house; they bounce it up and down. And when your house bounces up and down...there are still x and y waves passing, and moving the ground around while your house is airborne. Unless you've taken steps to prevent it, there's no reason other than blind luck for your house to land on the same spot that it lifted off from. This is by far the biggest cause of red tagged, uninhabitable houses during an earthquake; the house lifts off, the ground moves a bit, the house lands, and it's no longer on its foundation. You pretty much have no choice but to rebuild the house at that point.

 

There is a simple solution available to this. If you sink some heavy bolts between the house and the foundation, you'll keep them together during the quake. If you own land in an earthquake prone area, do this. Now. It's worth the money. In California, most insurers won't even offer you earthquake insurance if you don't do this. If you're in the new madrid zone, it's probably worth looking in to having this done also. The alternative is a total loss of your house with no insurance payment.

 

Finally, let's talk about bigger buildings. Turns out, the highest high rises are probably ok. They have to sustain shear forces daily due to winds, and they can therefore flex enough that they can survive the ground moving underneath them. The problem though, is the smaller high rises, the 10-20 floor buildings you see all over the area, like downtown Pasadena, Glendale, Hollywood, L.A., etc. A lot of these are steel frame, rigid buildings, and depending on how they were built, they are at a reasonable risk of total failure in the quake.

 

After Northridge in 94, there was a building in that area that the inhabitants returned to, and discovered that the elevators didn't work any more. Turns out the building had been knocked off alignment by a couple inches. This tilted the elevators enough that they wouldn't run any more. And the building was a total loss.

 

The shakeout scenario actually includes this as an emergency issue. They estimate that in this size event, probably 8-10 of these 10 or so story buildings across the L.A. basin will actually come down. The Shakeout scenario itself will simulate emergency responses to 5 collapses basin-wide. Whether they come down before or after they're fully evacuated will be, at some level, a matter of luck. But in addition to the rest of the damage around the basin, we're talking about more damage and collapse debris throughout the area than was generated on 9/11, in a number of sites, with possible damage to neighboring buildings if the collapses aren't vertical.

 

10 high rise buildings coming down across the basin on its own is pretty bad. Now include the rest of the disaster...and eek.

[Balta1701]

The real thing that ought to scare everyone in the L.A. basin with an event of this sort is water. People can't live without water. Fires can't be fought without water. Disease runs rampant without clean water. And L.A. and San Diego don't have enough water on their own for the tens of millions of people in the area.

 

The 100 year solution to L.A.'s water problems has been to pump it in from outside. In California, water flows uphill towards money. It does this through a number of key aqueducts; specifically the Los Angeles Aqueduct and the California Aqueduct, which steal water from the Colorado and the Sierra Nevada, respectively. Both of these, of course, have to cross the San Andreas to bring their water to the basin. One of them is at the surface (Drive up the 14, you follow it), one of them is tunneled underground. If the fault shifts by 10 meters (30 feet), these are simply broken. The water in them stops, and especially for the underground one, you need to get down there and dig a totally new tunnel for the water to go through. This will take months.

 

The breaking of the aqueducts is one big problem, but it's not the worst. L.A. and San Diego's water distribution system, like most of the country, is based in no small part on concrete pipes. When you hit the basin with the big one, these pipes break in hundreds of places. Some sections are ok, but the sections right next to them will be out. Even if the water was still getting in to the basin, you can't distribute it anywhere, because every single water line is down. And as people start trying to replace them, they realize that it's not worth trying to patch the breaks, because there are so many breaks they'd never find them all. The only solution for DWP is to rebuild L.A.'s entire water distribution system.

 

It gets worse. If you wanted to rebuild a water distribution system today, you could do it...but it would take time. Because there is simply not enough water pipe being manufactured in the country to supply an entire city with repair material. Every agency, every city, and so on, will be competing for the limited amount of pipe being made.

 

It will take somewhere between 6 months and a year for L.A.'s water supply to return to normal.

 

Imagine 6 months without a shower. Imagine 6 months with no water for cooking. Imagine 6 months where there isn't normal water for drinking. Find a place for 6 months of waste. Every road is down. The aqueducts are down. And there are 20 million thirsty people who are trapped in this area who can't get out. You literally have to figure out how to get bottled water in on boats and distribute it that way, because it's the only way in.

 

And then, start about 1000 or so fires. After the 1906 quake, San Francisco established a supply of underground cisterns to store water to fight fires after an earthquake, because of this exact problem. The city of L.A. does not have this system. So the only water they can get to fight fires will be piped from the ocean; there's no other option. ANd those pipes don't exist right now.

 

If you're in an earthquake prone area, especially in L.A., the most important thing you can do to help yourself survive is to store water. A lot of the faculty I know in geology and civil engineering, who know something about what is going to happen when the San Andreas goes...have moved to buy those same sort of 55 gallon water barrels you see on freeways and put 2 or so of them in their back yard. I've got a limited supply, enough for a couple days for my family, because I'm in an apartment and I don't have a place to store that much. No matter who you are, store some water. You simply won't be able to get it after the quake, not for a few days. If the water response isn't fast enough...people will die from lack of water. And maybe a lot of them.

[Balta1701]

I think I've said a couple times in this thread, this event they're simulating is not a "Worst case scenario" type event. They're estimating 5 buildings coming down, they're estimating 6 months or more with no running water, a month or two with no electricity, a thousand fires, and, assuming everyone gets medical attention rapidly, 1800 deaths.

 

Now, how is this not a worst case scenario? Well, let me count the ways.

 

First and foremost, they're assuming medical attention arrives rapidly. Between the roads being impassible and hospitals being overwhelmed, this is unlikely on its surface. But even worse...the U.S. medical care system is already a shambles. Give you an example. There are 3 emergency care facilities in the Coachella valley near Palm Springs, where the epicenter of this event is located. They operate at basically 100% capacity on a normal day. They simply do not have added capacity, beds, or doctors to call up if an event like this one hits. And frankly, the inhabitants of the Palm Springs area, which is one of the hardest hit areas, tend to be a little more elderly than your average population, and might be at elevated risk because of it.

 

Secondly...this is not the worst possible set of events you could get on the San Andreas. It turns out that the direction the earthquake propagates affects how much energy gets dumped in to the L.A. basin. If the rupture starts in the north by chance, and propagates south, it has the ability to do a lot more damage than this. Double up everything, from bridge collapses to building collapses to potentially even casualties.

 

Finally...probably the worst case scenario imaginable would be for the event to actually happen today. They're assuming for this practice run that there is no Santa Ana wind condition arising after the quake strikes. Tomorrow, there's possibility for 60 mph winds, less than 10% humidity, and temperatures over 90 degrees. The quake itself, through gas line ruptures, electric line breaks, car accidents, etc., sets off something in the area of 1000+ individual fires. If you take those conditions and add an intense Santa Ana wind to them....for all practical purposes, the Los Angeles Basin burns itself to the ground. There aren't firefighters to stop the blaze, there's no water to put it out, and it just jumps from structure to structure.

 

Even without the added difficulties, when this fault goes, it's likely to be the worst disaster in U.S. history by every method of counting. The best way to make sure you're not a statistic is to make sure you're prepared. Stockpile water, please. Have some canned goods stored somewhere. Make sure you know where your families will be in the event that it goes. And get yourself underneath the heaviest desk you can find.

 

In about an hour, I'm going to be carrying practice bodies across campus. I'm told the governor may be paying us a visit today, along with some other officials from FEMA. Should be a fascinating morning.

[Balta1701]

AIIIIIIIIIIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111