Deal with the Rays?

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Per http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/ it says the Rays are looking for a RH hitting corner OF. They should also need a closer. To me, this seems like the perfect team to deal with. I'd be willing to offer Dye and Jenks in a package if the Rays would be willing to part with one of Edwin Jackson/Jeff Niemann, one of Jake McGee/Wade Davis, and Eduardo Morlan. Slide Thornton to closer and sign a lefty set-up man, with Richard as the 2nd non-closing lefty out of the pen. I don't know if that deal would be realistic or not, but there are several possibilities with the Rays. The only guy I wouldn't want is Reid Brignac.

 

The best possible moves for the Sox IMO would be to do something like the above, then deal Javy for pitching prospects. If the Sox could go into 2009 with 2 rotation openings but 3-4 legit prospects who are ready and have ceilings of #3 or higher it could actually be an improvement over Javy + Richard in 2009, save us money, and help us get much younger in the future. If the Sox did something like that and Contreras came back in the second half, they would be able to go to a 6-man rotation to give the young guys extra rest, or just have a guy skip a start here and there.

 

So anyway, anyone have any thoughts on a potential TB deal? Who would you target? Who would you trade? What is realistic?

[GreatScott82]

Per http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/ it says the Rays are looking for a RH hitting corner OF. They should also need a closer. To me, this seems like the perfect team to deal with. I'd be willing to offer Dye and Jenks in a package if the Rays would be willing to part with one of Edwin Jackson/Jeff Niemann, one of Jake McGee/Wade Davis, and Eduardo Morlan. Slide Thornton to closer and sign a lefty set-up man, with Richard as the 2nd non-closing lefty out of the pen. I don't know if that deal would be realistic or not, but there are several possibilities with the Rays. The only guy I wouldn't want is Reid Brignac.

 

The best possible moves for the Sox IMO would be to do something like the above, then deal Javy for pitching prospects. If the Sox could go into 2009 with 2 rotation openings but 3-4 legit prospects who are ready and have ceilings of #3 or higher it could actually be an improvement over Javy + Richard in 2009, save us money, and help us get much younger in the future. If the Sox did something like that and Contreras came back in the second half, they would be able to go to a 6-man rotation to give the young guys extra rest, or just have a guy skip a start here and there.

 

So anyway, anyone have any thoughts on a potential TB deal? Who would you target? Who would you trade? What is realistic?

Tampa Bay is in the market for a new DH/1B. They have the depth and flexibility to trade with any team in baseball for it. I expect them to make a big push for Prince Fielder. Perhaps for Garza and Sonnestine or Jackson. Makes more sense to me rather than trading for an aging veteran.

[Melissa1334]

Per http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/ it says the Rays are looking for a RH hitting corner OF. They should also need a closer. To me, this seems like the perfect team to deal with. I'd be willing to offer Dye and Jenks in a package if the Rays would be willing to part with one of Edwin Jackson/Jeff Niemann, one of Jake McGee/Wade Davis, and Eduardo Morlan. Slide Thornton to closer and sign a lefty set-up man, with Richard as the 2nd non-closing lefty out of the pen. I don't know if that deal would be realistic or not, but there are several possibilities with the Rays. The only guy I wouldn't want is Reid Brignac.

 

The best possible moves for the Sox IMO would be to do something like the above, then deal Javy for pitching prospects. If the Sox could go into 2009 with 2 rotation openings but 3-4 legit prospects who are ready and have ceilings of #3 or higher it could actually be an improvement over Javy + Richard in 2009, save us money, and help us get much younger in the future. If the Sox did something like that and Contreras came back in the second half, they would be able to go to a 6-man rotation to give the young guys extra rest, or just have a guy skip a start here and there.

 

So anyway, anyone have any thoughts on a potential TB deal? Who would you target? Who would you trade? What is realistic?

its funny how people just assume thornton would be a good closer lol

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Tampa Bay is in the market for a new DH/1B. They have the depth and flexibility to trade with any team in baseball for it. I expect them to make a big push for Prince Fielder. Perhaps for Garza and Sonnestine or Jackson. Makes more sense to me rather than trading for an aging veteran.

The thing that makes me think Dye would be a great fit is his flexibility. He can spend some time in the OF or DH for them, he is on an affordable contract and would be easier to retain, he hits RH, and he is the type of character guy the Rays would be looking for. Plus I don't think Garza is going anywhere. They love Matt Garza over there. I think Price, Garza, Kaz, and Shields are untouchable, McGee and Sonnanstine are close to it, and Niemann, Jackson, and Davis can all be had for the right deal. You are right though in that they can trade with any team in baseball. The Rays will be the team to watch this offseason.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

its funny how people just assume thornton would be a good closer lol

Why wouldn't he? He struggled in a couple shots there last season, but I think that was all due to changing roles and upsetting the pen as a whole after Jenks went down. I could easily see him being a dominant closer if roles are established very early on, and honestly it makes perfect sense to me given his contract situation. We have him through 2011. His deal: 07:$0.55M, 08:$0.875M, 09:$1.325M, 10:$2.25M club option ($0.25M buyout), 11:$3M club option. Jenks is going to be far more expensive than that.

[Kyyle23]

You just cant assume someone can close because of their stuff. Its a huge mental adjustment, and looking at the fact that he struggled when put into that role would make me very hesitant to do it again.

[Melissa1334]

You just cant assume someone can close because of their stuff. Its a huge mental adjustment, and looking at the fact that he struggled when put into that role would make me very hesitant to do it again.

thank you. look at the very good setup men that got put into that role and didnt do well. take it however u want, but he has 5 saves in his career in 19 opportunities.

Edited October 30, 2008 by Melissa1334

[Buehrle>Wood]

I'd be willing to offer Dye and Jenks in a package if the Rays would be willing to part with one of Edwin Jackson/Jeff Niemann, one of Jake McGee/Wade Davis, and Eduardo Morlan.

 

I'd hope we would get more.

[knightni]

Dealing Dye to the Giants for prospects would make the most sense.

 

He's from the Bay area and the Giants could use a power corner outfielder.

[caulfield12]

Do the Giants want to keep getting older and slower, though?

 

With the move from the opening post, we're taking way too many chances. For all I know, Adam Russell would be a better closer than Matt Thornton. One thing's for certain, I don't think I would ever want to see Thornton come into a close or tied game in the 9th inning with runners on base...maybe his actual stats counter this somewhat, but his numbers of runners inherited/scored can't be all that great. Maybe I am letting some particularly bad memories influence me here.

 

Edwin Jackson was so valued by the Rays that he was left off their post-season roster...the White Sox might be better off targeting someone who really knows how to pitch, like Sonnanstine, even though Jackson has much better stuff overall.

 

While the idea is a good one, Jermaine Dye on turf (I mentioned this elsewhere) even for one year is a risky proposition for any team. 85-90 games counting TOR and MIN, not to mention the fact he's a West Coast guy.

 

I don't think we can begin to count on anything from Contreras for 09, and KW certainly isn't...hopefully he learned from the Crede situation, although we accidentally (the Uribe re-signing) had a capable back-up there to fill in the gap. If we went into 08 with Fields as the starter and Crede gone, we might (even probably) would have ended up missing the playoffs. Just a feeling.

 

As far as more realistic, start talking Fernando Perez and Rocco Baldelli, lol. Or Johnny Gomes. Gomes, like Cantu, put up some very solid offensive seasons but has fallen off the map and is still a relatively young player.

 

 

[chisox2334]

Teams like bos, yankees, mariners, giants would take a look at Dye. I do agree the most we get out of dye is couple of prospects

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

thank you. look at the very good setup men that got put into that role and didnt do well. take it however u want, but he has 5 saves in his career in 19 opportunities.

There have been those who have failed, yes, but there have been some very good closers to make the transition. Just off the top of my head, both Dotel and Lidge were setup men under Wager, and Dotel was doing pretty well for himself before he blew out his shoulder or whatever. One of Thornton's closest comparables, George Sherrill, made the transition successfully last year. The fact is, the sample size is way too small to say he wouldn't be effective. Established roles is all I think he needs. We saw in the post season this year that he is capable of working under pressure.

 

Bobby Jenks' career line: 235.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 7.49 H/9, 0.50 HR/9, 2.90 BB/9, 8.55 K/9, 1.15 WHIP

Matt Thornton's career line: 267.1 IP, 3.97 ERA, 7.98 H/9, 0.98 HR/9, 4.48 BB/9, 9.02 K/9, 1.38 WHIP

 

About 1/3 of Thornton's numbers come from Seattle where he was pretty bad. Still, on paper going from Jenks to Thornton is a slight downgrade, but there are other factors. Thornton is owned $6.575M over the next three years, and through arbitration who knows how much Bobby is going to get? The difference should be at least $12M or more over that period, plus by dealing Bobby you get a package that really helps the team now and in the future. Is Bobby the closer and Thornton the lefty setup man worth more than Thornton the closer, Poreda/Richard as the lefty setup man, $12M+, and a couple young players who have the potential to be very good for a long time? That's a question the Sox need to ask themselves. I don't see them trading Bobby overall because Kenny doesn't usually like to deal Major League players until they've lost some value, but a Jenks deal could end up working out great.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Do the Giants want to keep getting older and slower, though?

 

With the move from the opening post, we're taking way too many chances. For all I know, Adam Russell would be a better closer than Matt Thornton. One thing's for certain, I don't think I would ever want to see Thornton come into a close or tied game in the 9th inning with runners on base...maybe his actual stats counter this somewhat, but his numbers of runners inherited/scored can't be all that great. Maybe I am letting some particularly bad memories influence me here.

 

Edwin Jackson was so valued by the Rays that he was left off their post-season roster...the White Sox might be better off targeting someone who really knows how to pitch, like Sonnanstine, even though Jackson has much better stuff overall.

 

While the idea is a good one, Jermaine Dye on turf (I mentioned this elsewhere) even for one year is a risky proposition for any team. 85-90 games counting TOR and MIN, not to mention the fact he's a West Coast guy.

 

I don't think we can begin to count on anything from Contreras for 09, and KW certainly isn't...hopefully he learned from the Crede situation, although we accidentally (the Uribe re-signing) had a capable back-up there to fill in the gap. If we went into 08 with Fields as the starter and Crede gone, we might (even probably) would have ended up missing the playoffs. Just a feeling.

 

As far as more realistic, start talking Fernando Perez and Rocco Baldelli, lol. Or Johnny Gomes. Gomes, like Cantu, put up some very solid offensive seasons but has fallen off the map and is still a relatively young player.

 

Jackson was left off the ALDS roster only because they needed 3, at most 4, SP plus they have a ton of middle relievers. He was on the ALCS and WS roster, going 4.1IP and giving up 1 run on 2 H. Edwin Jackson would have made our team's full postseason roster and most other teams' full postseason rosters. The Rays have an embarrassment of talent if you haven't heard.

 

Fernando Perez? Are you serious? I want real difference makers, not soon-to-be 26-year-old fast guys who can't hit for any power. The guy struck out 156 times in Triple A in 2008. I want him nowhere near this team.

 

Gomes is another all-or-nothing hacker. The idea is to get better, not tread water.

Edited October 30, 2008 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[Melissa1334]

There have been those who have failed, yes, but there have been some very good closers to make the transition. Just off the top of my head, both Dotel and Lidge were setup men under Wager, and Dotel was doing pretty well for himself before he blew out his shoulder or whatever. One of Thornton's closest comparables, George Sherrill, made the transition successfully last year. The fact is, the sample size is way too small to say he wouldn't be effective. Established roles is all I think he needs. We saw in the post season this year that he is capable of working under pressure.

 

Bobby Jenks' career line: 235.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 7.49 H/9, 0.50 HR/9, 2.90 BB/9, 8.55 K/9, 1.15 WHIP

Matt Thornton's career line: 267.1 IP, 3.97 ERA, 7.98 H/9, 0.98 HR/9, 4.48 BB/9, 9.02 K/9, 1.38 WHIP

 

About 1/3 of Thornton's numbers come from Seattle where he was pretty bad. Still, on paper going from Jenks to Thornton is a slight downgrade, but there are other factors. Thornton is owned $6.575M over the next three years, and through arbitration who knows how much Bobby is going to get? The difference should be at least $12M or more over that period, plus by dealing Bobby you get a package that really helps the team now and in the future. Is Bobby the closer and Thornton the lefty setup man worth more than Thornton the closer, Poreda/Richard as the lefty setup man, $12M+, and a couple young players who have the potential to be very good for a long time? That's a question the Sox need to ask themselves. I don't see them trading Bobby overall because Kenny doesn't usually like to deal Major League players until they've lost some value, but a Jenks deal could end up working out great.

i agree with a lot of what u said, but if theyre going to trade jenks, u better be 100% sure ur getting the right players, not busts. 4 example, on paper, reed morse and olivo for freddy looked great for seattle. where r those players now?

[WhiteSoxfan1986]

I would love to get Jackson.

[Balta1701]

I would love to get Jackson.

But not at the cost of Dye + Jenks.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

i agree with a lot of what u said, but if theyre going to trade jenks, u better be 100% sure ur getting the right players, not busts. 4 example, on paper, reed morse and olivo for freddy looked great for seattle. where r those players now?

You make a great point, but I think it works out a little better with pitching prospects than hitting prospects, especially if those pitchers have the kind of stuff the Rays' guys I mentioned earlier have. Pitchers can be brought along slowly and protected or they can be thrown into the fire. They can work out of the pen or experiment out of the rotation, so they give you a fall back option if one thing doesn't work out. Hitters OTOH have to be thrown into the fire, they have to stay in the fire, and if they can't adjust to Major League pitching their window of opportunity closes very quickly. Plus, as long as pitchers stay healthy they hold their value better as a good arm with poor results is always going to be more likely to succeed in the future than a guy who has never hit big league pitching, because the guy who can't hit big league pitching isn't going to get many chances to prove otherwise.

 

Overall pitching prospects are sooo much safer, and it makes sense to stock up on them, especially with the market for SP the way it is. When our own Javy Vazquez of the 4.67 ERA is considered a bargain at $11.5M for the next two years because of his stuff and ability to eat innings, it only makes sense to go after guys who can provide similar results over 180 IP at the league minimum and then use the funds saved to pay established hitters.

Edited October 31, 2008 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[Kalapse]

You just cant assume someone can close because of their stuff. Its a huge mental adjustment, and looking at the fact that he struggled when put into that role would make me very hesitant to do it again.

So when was it exactly that Matt Thornton was thrust into the closer's role and struggled this past season? Because that never happened.

 

Here's a post of mine from earlier this month:

----------------------------------------------------------

So I guess everybody was REEEEEEEALLY happy with Thornton in the closers role when Bobby was out for a while. Hmmmm...I seem to recall most said he didn't have the "closers mentality"...which I agree with. Why even consider trading Bobby unless you're in total rebuild mode?

During Bobby's absence Matt Thornton got 1 save opportunity and converted it successfully, getting the one out necessary to record the save. Not a single time during Jenks' absence did Matt Thornton start the final inning of a ballgame in which the White Sox had the lead (the standard save situation). He pitched mainly in the 7th and 8th inning during that stretch including some work in the 9th of a tied ballgame. Hell Matt Thornton pitched in much bigger situations over the final month of the season than he did in Jenks' absence and kicked ass.

 

By my count there were only 5 save opportunities during Jenks' absence. Thornton, Dotel and Linebrink all recorded 1 save each and Linebrink blew 2 more.

 

If anyone came to the conclusion that Matt Thornton didn't have the "closer's mentality" during the 16 games Bobby Jenks missed in July (in which Matt Thornton had 1 save opportunity) then they're fooling themselves.

[caulfield12]

Jackson was left off the ALDS roster only because they needed 3, at most 4, SP plus they have a ton of middle relievers. He was on the ALCS and WS roster, going 4.1IP and giving up 1 run on 2 H. Edwin Jackson would have made our team's full postseason roster and most other teams' full postseason rosters. The Rays have an embarrassment of talent if you haven't heard.

 

Fernando Perez? Are you serious? I want real difference makers, not soon-to-be 26-year-old fast guys who can't hit for any power. The guy struck out 156 times in Triple A in 2008. I want him nowhere near this team.

 

Gomes is another all-or-nothing hacker. The idea is to get better, not tread water.

 

 

If you're going to make this move, it's better to do Jenks for Jackson and a prospect (3B/CF/plus arm out of pen)

 

Dye is much more valuable to the White Sox than perhaps any team out there, because of the park he plays in...that's why he has led MLB RF'ers in home runs from 2005-2008.

 

I'm not serious about Perez...although I would love to have Baldelli as a fourth outfielder, not sure that's realistic. But we are not going to get Carl Crawford or BJ Upton, end of story.

 

If we really are serious thinking that Jenks' value (and fastball) have peaked, and this is certainly the window of time when he is most valuable to another team (before he hits Free Agency and gets an even bigger contract)...then KW will take that risk. I just don't think he does it unless he feels 100% confident in either Thornton or Russell.

 

The White Sox have shown time and time again (Howry, Foulke, Takatsu, Hermanson, Jenks...Koch was the only "name" reliever and his name was mud quickly enough) that they have the ability to find "under the radar" closers who don't cost tons of money. As someone mentioned, is the difference between a 75 and 85% save conversion rate worth having an extra $12 million to play around with and a young/affordable/high potential starter in Edwin Jackson that's under our control for X number of years? However, as the Indians and Tigers have learned (and we saw during the Koch Era), not having a legit closer can have disastrous results on overall team morale.

Edited October 31, 2008 by caulfield12

[Buehrle>Wood]

I know this site was once known as EdwinJacksontalk.com, but after 3 years(2 as being a starter) of below averagness, I figured that would have changed. Speaking of Jackson, does anyone know what his former partner in crime Greg Miller is doing these days? I don't think he ever made it to the majors.

Edited October 31, 2008 by Buehrle>Wood

[caulfield12]

Well, now its Chone Figgins/Brian Roberts talk. Which I guess is better than Alex Cintron, Mackowiak, Daubach, Julio Ramirez or Armando Rios talk.

 

I kind of miss D'Angelo Jimenez and Royce Clayton, they gave Sox posters so much deep and rich material to work with.

 

FWIW, I don't think Edwin Jackson is close to being on the radar of young/inconsistent starters the Sox would target in a theoretical Jenks deal...it would have to be someone with legit potential to be a 3 starter or above (Danks/Floyd/Matt Garza, etc.)

Edited October 31, 2008 by caulfield12

[Wanne]

So when was it exactly that Matt Thornton was thrust into the closer's role and struggled this past season? Because that never happened.

 

Here's a post of mine from earlier this month:

----------------------------------------------------------

 

During Bobby's absence Matt Thornton got 1 save opportunity and converted it successfully, getting the one out necessary to record the save. Not a single time during Jenks' absence did Matt Thornton start the final inning of a ballgame in which the White Sox had the lead (the standard save situation). He pitched mainly in the 7th and 8th inning during that stretch including some work in the 9th of a tied ballgame. Hell Matt Thornton pitched in much bigger situations over the final month of the season than he did in Jenks' absence and kicked ass.

 

By my count there were only 5 save opportunities during Jenks' absence. Thornton, Dotel and Linebrink all recorded 1 save each and Linebrink blew 2 more.

 

If anyone came to the conclusion that Matt Thornton didn't have the "closer's mentality" during the 16 games Bobby Jenks missed in July (in which Matt Thornton had 1 save opportunity) then they're fooling themselves.

 

ok...so what side of the fence are you on? Trade Jenks and have Thornton for the closer or not? We get it....but what's you're actual point of view of Thornton as a closer besides telling people they're wrong?

[Kalapse]

ok...so what side of the fence are you on? Trade Jenks and have Thornton for the closer or not? We get it....but what's you're actual point of view of Thornton as a closer besides telling people they're wrong?

Like I've been saying for the past 2 years; if a team desperate for a closer wants to make a ridiculous offer for Jenks I'd jump all over it. I don't know if Matt Thornton would make a good closer or not, his success in the role would likely hinge on his ability to command his slider more so than his mental makeup. If the Sox are getting a king's ransom for Jenks then no, I don't have a problem with them making Matt Thornton the closer. He could fail and the Sox would be stuck looking for a new 9th inning man but he's yet to be given the opportunity to fail and anyone who says otherwise is mistaken.

 

Jenks will make something like $3.5M next year in his first year of arbitration eligibility, if he has a good season he's looking at $6.5-$7M in '09 and it just goes up from there. He's still overweight, has a screw in his elbow and isn't exactly dominant so he can't be an untouchable like a Papelbon for example.

[Heads22]

Besides, the guy you offer to Tampa would be Octavio.

[Wanne]

Like I've been saying for the past 2 years; if a team desperate for a closer wants to make a ridiculous offer for Jenks I'd jump all over it. I don't know if Matt Thornton would make a good closer or not, his success in the role would likely hinge on his ability to command his slider more so than his mental makeup. If the Sox are getting a king's ransom for Jenks then no, I don't have a problem with them making Matt Thornton the closer. He could fail and the Sox would be stuck looking for a new 9th inning man but he's yet to be given the opportunity to fail and anyone who says otherwise is mistaken.

 

Jenks will make something like $3.5M next year in his first year of arbitration eligibility, if he has a good season he's looking at $6.5-$7M in '09 and it just goes up from there. He's still overweight, has a screw in his elbow and isn't exactly dominant so he can't be an untouchable like a Papelbon for example.

 

Good points Kalapse....sums it up very well. thanks.