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State by State Prediction Poll


NorthSideSox72

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OK so, for those following closely enough... who will win each of the key states, and of course, the election? Feel free to add your individual predictions here as to what states each candidate will take. Here are mine, to get it started...

 

OF THE CONTESTED STATES...

 

McCain takes: MT, ND, MO, NC, FL, VA, IN

 

Obama takes: OH, PA, IA, WI, MN, CO, NM, NH

 

MT, MO and VA will be the closest races.

 

This ends in a final result of: Obama 298, McCain 240

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I think Obama maintains all Kerry states from 2004, and adds IA, NM, CO, NV, VA and OH. This gives Obama 291 Electoral Votes.

 

I think that FL, MO, MT, IN will all come down to turnout at the polls and GOTV operations. I think that Obama will win at least two of these states, probably FL and MO.

 

My prediction? Obama - 329, McCain - 209. A comfortable win, but no landslide for Obama.

 

I think there is a slight possibility that we'll see IN, MT, ND and AZ as well, which would put Obama up over 350, but its not the most likely option.

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QUOTE (Rex Kicka** @ Nov 3, 2008 -> 10:14 AM)
My prediction? Obama - 329, McCain - 209. A comfortable win, but no landslide for Obama.

Technically, 329 is not a landslide by historical standards. Between 1944-1996, only Carter in '76, Nixon in '68, Kennedy in '60 and Truman in '48 have won the presidency with LESS than 329 electoral votes. And, only carter in '76 finished with less than 300. So, since 1944, most elections have been significant electoral college margins. 2000 and 2004 seem to be against the historical trend.

 

But based on the last two elections and how the states break down, if Obama gets 329, it's a landslide.

Edited by Athomeboy_2000
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QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Nov 3, 2008 -> 12:04 PM)
Technically, 329 is not a blowout by historical standards. Between 1944-1996, only Carter in '76, Nixon in '68, Kennedy in '60 and Truman in '48 have won the presidency with LESS than 329 electoral votes. And, only carter in '76 finished with less than 300. So, since 1944, most elections have been significant electoral college margins. 2000 and 2004 seem to be against the historical trend.If Obama gets 329, it's a blowout.

That's what he said. He said that 329 isn't a landslide.

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QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Nov 3, 2008 -> 12:04 PM)
Technically, 329 is not a landslide by historical standards. Between 1944-1996, only Carter in '76, Nixon in '68, Kennedy in '60 and Truman in '48 have won the presidency with LESS than 329 electoral votes. And, only carter in '76 finished with less than 300. So, since 1944, most elections have been significant electoral college margins. 2000 and 2004 seem to be against the historical trend.

 

But based on the last two elections and how the states break down, if Obama gets 329, it's a landslide.

 

I define landslide as 375 electoral votes or 70% of the electoral college. The last landslide, IMHO was George Bush's 400+ EV in 1988.

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Popular Vote:

 

Barack Obama / Joe Biden - 51.2%

John McCain / Sarah Palin - 45.6%

Bob Barr / Wayne Root - 1.7%

Ralph Nader / Matt Gonzalez - 1.2%

Chuck Baldwin / Darrell Castle - .2%

Cynthia McKinney / Rosa Clemente - <.1%

Ron Paul / Michael Peroutka* - <.1%

 

*Appears on Montana's ballot only

 

Electoral College:

 

finalelectoralpredictions.jpg

Key:

Dark Blue - Obama by >5%

Light Blue - Obama by <5%

Dark Red - McCain by >5%

Light Red - McCain by <5%

 

Barack Obama / Joe Biden - 378

John McCain / Sarah Palin - 160

Edited by DukeNukeEm
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I'm going to say that Obama will win North Carolina. Of course I live in an extremely liberal part of the state, but the enthusiasm here for Obama is unreal. The Obama office is always buzzing with an overwhelming amount of volunteers, especially tonight. Over 2.5 million NC voters have already cast their ballot (about 73% of the 2004 total vote), which I would imagine is a good sign for Obama. Black voters are voting above their share of the population. Blacks make up 21% of our population, but 26% of the votes so far have been from blacks. Don't count us out.

 

My preidctions are...

 

McCain: Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, Florida

Obama: Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada

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QUOTE (DrunkBomber @ Nov 3, 2008 -> 07:36 PM)
Ill say McCain wins DuPage County

 

Former U.S. Rep. Harris Fawell, a stalwart of DuPage County Republican politics, is endorsing Barack Obama for president. Fawell, whose support for Obama was first reported by Michael Sneed in the Sun-Times, praised Obama as "the best I've seen" in the Naperville Sun:

Harri
s
Fawell, former congre
s
s
man for the 13th Congre
s
s
ional Di
s
trict, i
s
bac
k
ing a Democrat for pre
s
ident for the fir
s
t time in hi
s
life. The 79-year-old Republican
s
aid there'
s
a good chance that Obama will carry the county.

 

"He'
s
the be
s
t I have
s
een, the mo
s
t qualified I've ever
s
een running for pre
s
ident," Fawell
s
aid.

 

LINK

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Obama - 326

McCain - 212

 

Split the "battleground" states into 3 categories w/ my predictions...

 

Toss Up

Florida - McCain

Missouri - McCain

Montana - McCain

North Carolina - Obama

North Dakota - McCain

Ohio - Obama

 

Close

Georgia - McCain

Indiana - McCain

Nevada - Obama

Virginia - Obama

 

Close...but not too close

Arizona - McCain

Colorado - Obama

New Hampshire - Obama

Pennsylvania - Obama

 

I hoping I'm wrong and it's an Obama landslide but honestly I will take an Obama win even if its 270-268. I'm one of the few that still thinks McCain has a chance to win this thing. We did elect Bush twice after all.

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QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Nov 4, 2008 -> 11:04 AM)

Thats one person, it doesnt make my statement wrong at all. Look at past elections in DuPage County. Republicans dominate the ticket and there are several republicans that run unopposed. I think Obama was actually the only democrat to win DuPage County for anything in 04 and that was because he was running against Keys, who I think I have a shot against.

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