"Don't Trade Vazquez" official thread

[Fantl916]

Tim Wakefield (he's more likely to retire than to pitch for the ChiSox)

Andy Sonanstine (better, but more likely to get Edwin Jackson and what do we have to give up?)

Kyle Davies (definitely not better than Javier)

Kevin Slowey (MN would never trade him to us, but I would take him in a heartbeat)

Rich Harden/Ryan Dempster (way too expensive)

Todd Wellemeyer (mehhh)

Joe Saunders (would be prohibitively expensive to acquire)

Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers wouldn't dream of dealing him yet)

 

 

Ok this pisses me off... are you guys serious? really?

 

Wakefield doesnt hold a torch to Vazquez

Sonnanstine only recently became reliable, but he did it for 1 year, 1 YEAR! He's just as likely to turn into Brian Bannister next year as he is to stay solid, but he's far from reliable

Kyle Davies? WHAT!?

Slowey is not Minnesota's 4th guy, he's their 3rd behind Liriano and Baker, I'd call Blackburn their 4th and Javier is surely more dependable than Blackburn, and more reliable because of health than Slowey

Wellemeyer is terrible, absolutely terrible. he's only ok because dave duncan is a genius

Joe Saunders is solid, i'll allow you to say he's CURRENTLY as good, but again he only did what he did for one year, so you cant call him dependable

Kershaw, he's not Javier good... yet, but he should be

Harden, yea when he's healthy he's a top 5 pitcher in baseball, but how often is he healthy and how much does he tax a staff with his absence

 

People need to realize that $12 a year for what Javier does is absolutely fair market value. 100% fair market value. if you want an ace, go get sabathia at $20+ mil a year. Javier isnt an ace, and the reason people piss on him is because they think he should be.

 

temper you expectations and you'll learn to love him because he does what he does every year, and every year he helps a staff stay fresh and keeps the team in more than enough games.

 

i sure as hell hope we dont give Javier away for anything less than 2 very good ML ready piece (i.e. Daniel Murphy, Aaron Heilman esque). I am not ready to move on if we go into next year with anything less than a very dependable starter in the 4th slot, and none of you should be either.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

A brief comparison of our starters:

 

Buerhle average outing: 6.43 IP

Buehrle innings 1-3: 394 AB, .277/.321/.416/.737

Buehrle innings 4-6: 364 AB, .294/.332/.448/.779

Buehrle innings 7-9: 95 AB, .253/.304/.358/.662

 

Vazquez average outing: 6.31 IP

Vazquez innings 1-3: 378 AB, .209/.307/.407/.714

Vazquez innings 4-6: 358 AB, .288/.332/.494/.826

Vazquez innings 7-9: 79 AB, .215/.287/.329/.616

 

Danks average outing: 5.91 IP

Danks innings 1-3: 358 AB, .223/.296/.324/.621

Danks innings 4-6: 320 AB, .250/.288/.394/.682

Danks innings 7-9: 61 AB, .361/.409/.525/.934

 

Floyd average outing: 6.25 IP

Floyd innings 1-3: 370 AB, .230/.311/.368/.679

Floyd innings 4-6: 341 AB, .240/.299/.469/.768

Floyd innings 7-9: 76 AB, .303/.316/.553/.869

 

When you look at Buehrle's numbers, they are always like this for some reason. He gives up a lot of hits but his game balls allow him to continue pitching. Buehrle's jockstrap is larger than Javy's Puerto Rican home which he'll return to once his playing days are over.

 

When you look at Danks and Floyd you see young guys getting tired. They dominate until late and then they falter, which doesn't hurt quite as much because by that time they have done their jobs and the late inning relief crew can come in and do theirs.

 

When you look at Javy you see a guy that almost allows a .500 SLG% in the middle of the freaking game. That third time through the lineup is brutal for him and it sucks to happen in the 4th-6th innings, as that is the time for a team to take control of a ballgame. When the offense keeps it close or puts the team ahead, it has to be demoralizing for the players to have a guy like Javy out there coughing up the momentum or control over the game because that puts them in a position where they have to score runs in the 7th inning or later.

 

 

[Soxbadger]

Im not chomping at the bit to get rid of Vazquez.

 

If we get a good trade with pieces we need, sure.

 

Otherwise Id just keep him and try and sell him if he starts to pitch well next season and people come bidding.

 

Never can have to much pitching.

[JohnCangelosi]

I can't even believe this is a conversation now. There is NO WAY you trade this guy unless you want to have TWO DANNY WRIGHT 5th starter situations again like we did a few years ago.

 

I don't like relying on Javy for any big games but he's not a bad #4 and certainly a decent (yet expensive #5). The good news is our 2 & 3 starters (if you want to make MB our #1) are both on the cheap right now...

 

We're going to need to take a flyer with someone for the #5 spot until Jose is ready (and God only knows when that will be) so I feel much better having him there unless we can get someone who can give us 200 IP and 12-14 wins in that spot....which will be extremely difficult

[Dick Allen]

I agree with Neyer. Javy is a guy who can get a team to the playoffs. He's not a salary dump. But he likely won't be on the sox next year.

He can? He's been on 2 playoff teams in his career and they made the playoffs not because of him, but despite of him. And when he got into a playoff game, he was almost immediately lit up. He's going to have stretches every year when he is good. Maybe cherry-picking stats is a reason someone might actually agree to pay him the money despite the overall results on a career that is more than a few seasons old. I really worry about baseball if paying someone $11.5 million a year to be below .500 with an ERA higher than league average is considered reasonable.

 

The White Sox owe a guy who hit .219 with a ton of strikeouts, who doesn't steal bases, and gets pinch run for, $24 million over the next 3 seasons. That too to many on this board is considered "reasonable."

 

Seems to me, with these 2 non-performers, the White Sox are wasting $20 million a year. What you're paying for and what you are getting are very different. I don't think its reasonable.

[Dick Allen]

I can't even believe this is a conversation now. There is NO WAY you trade this guy unless you want to have TWO DANNY WRIGHT 5th starter situations again like we did a few years ago.

 

I don't like relying on Javy for any big games but he's not a bad #4 and certainly a decent (yet expensive #5). The good news is our 2 & 3 starters (if you want to make MB our #1) are both on the cheap right now...

 

We're going to need to take a flyer with someone for the #5 spot until Jose is ready (and God only knows when that will be) so I feel much better having him there unless we can get someone who can give us 200 IP and 12-14 wins in that spot....which will be extremely difficult

Danny Wright looked like Cy Young compared to Javy the last month of the season. I will agree that if KW wants to put together a bad team, it apparenty is a situation where Javy thrives, and he would be much more valuable in the trade market if he was held on to. If he plans on having a good team, Javy is a problem, and he has shown his 2 years with the White Sox when they were good and his year in NY.

[Dick Allen]

Ok this pisses me off... are you guys serious? really?

 

Wakefield doesnt hold a torch to Vazquez

Sonnanstine only recently became reliable, but he did it for 1 year, 1 YEAR! He's just as likely to turn into Brian Bannister next year as he is to stay solid, but he's far from reliable

Kyle Davies? WHAT!?

Slowey is not Minnesota's 4th guy, he's their 3rd behind Liriano and Baker, I'd call Blackburn their 4th and Javier is surely more dependable than Blackburn, and more reliable because of health than Slowey

Wellemeyer is terrible, absolutely terrible. he's only ok because dave duncan is a genius

Joe Saunders is solid, i'll allow you to say he's CURRENTLY as good, but again he only did what he did for one year, so you cant call him dependable

Kershaw, he's not Javier good... yet, but he should be

Harden, yea when he's healthy he's a top 5 pitcher in baseball, but how often is he healthy and how much does he tax a staff with his absence

 

People need to realize that $12 a year for what Javier does is absolutely fair market value. 100% fair market value. if you want an ace, go get sabathia at $20+ mil a year. Javier isnt an ace, and the reason people piss on him is because they think he should be.

 

temper you expectations and you'll learn to love him because he does what he does every year, and every year he helps a staff stay fresh and keeps the team in more than enough games.

 

i sure as hell hope we dont give Javier away for anything less than 2 very good ML ready piece (i.e. Daniel Murphy, Aaron Heilman esque). I am not ready to move on if we go into next year with anything less than a very dependable starter in the 4th slot, and none of you should be either.

I would say yes, very serious. The White Sox have been good in 2 of Javy's 3 seasons and his results were:

2006 White Sox 4.84 11-12

2008 White Sox 4.67 12-16

 

Strikeouts are sexy, but ultimately winning is more important. Ozzie himself has said Javy hasn't shown he can win a big game, and when you are in contention, your 4th and 5th starter needs to win some big games.

[Dick Allen]

Simply.not.true.

 

Go back and look at the game logs.

 

In late 2006, Javy pitched EXTREMELY well. His late season losses had nothing to do with pitching poorly. The Sox simply could not score runs because several key hitters disappeared the last two months.

 

Again... in 2008, Javy pitched extremely well in several games where he got losses or no decisions because of lack of offensive support. Want dates?

- Toronto on May 5th

- Angels on May 15th

- Tampa on May 31st

- Oakland on July 3rd

- Texas on July 21st

- Toronto on September 9th

 

In his 3 regular season games against Tampa this year, he pitched well enough to win all of them. But in the 2 games he lost, the Sox scored a total of 3 runs.

 

The two games he pitched against Toronto and lost... he pitched well enough to win both of those. But the Sox scored a TOTAL of 1 run in those two games.

 

He beat the Twins in two of his 3 regular season starts against them.

 

The game he won against Cleveland on September 3rd was HUGE, because they were hot and Javy kept us from getting swept.

 

So... you have to look at what happened in the games rather than using W-L or what happened this September to put a label on his term with the Sox.

His stretch run has been stated before. What about earlier in the year when he was getting lit up but getting wins? It all evened out. The overall body of work was 11-12 with a 4.84 ERA for a team that won 90 games. He wasn't good. Certainly not $11.5 million a year good.

[scenario]

His stretch run has been stated before. What about earlier in the year when he was getting lit up but getting wins? It all evened out. The overall body of work was 11-12 with a 4.84 ERA for a team that won 90 games. He wasn't good. Certainly not $11.5 million a year good.

 

Evened out?? Shirley you must be joking.

 

Vazquez had a grand total of 1 game where he gave up more than 4 runs and got the win. One game. All season.

 

And he only had 3 wins all season in games where he gave up more than 3 runs.

 

Meanwhile he got 5 losses and 3 no decisions in games where he gave up 3 runs or less.

 

Not.even.

 

 

 

[Dick Allen]

Evened out?? Shirley you must be joking.

 

Vazquez had a grand total of 1 game where he gave up more than 4 runs and got the win. One game. All season.

 

And he only had 3 wins all season in games where he gave up more than 3 runs.

 

Meanwhile he got 5 losses and 3 no decisions in games where he gave up 3 runs or less.

 

Not.even.

Through 8/10/2006, Vazquez was 11-6 with a 5.13 ERA. The White Sox had scored 159 runs in his 21 starts. Pardon me while I don't shed a tear feeling sad that his record should have been much better than it was.

 

 

Last year, he had 16 starts he gave up 4 or more runs. 12 starts he gave up 5 or more. In the 4 starts he gave up 4, only once did he pitch 7 innings. Cherry pick all you want, but his record is clear. He is a below .500 career pitcher with an ERA higher than his talent level. I think there are 11,500,000 ways to better spend the money paid for , in the end, very mediocre results.

Edited November 5, 2008 by Dick Allen

[Paint it Black]

Candidates:

 

Tim Wakefield

 

Yeah, cause boy did he look good in September on into the playoffs.

 

[Dick Allen]

Yeah, cause boy did he look good in September on into the playoffs.

Wakefield makes $4 million a year. Last year he was 10-11 4.13 ERA. Its on par or better than what Javy does with a contender at 1/3 of the cost. The whole argument about Javy being so valuable is innings eating and strikeouts. Wakefield has eaten a lot of innings and he's $7.5 million cheaper. Strikeouts instead of pop outs or grounders isn't worth that much is especially for a starter, is it?

[Steve9347]

Only trade Javy if the deal brings us back something useful. You can't jsut give away a guy who's a guarantee for a sub 4.50 era.

[scenario]

Through 8/10/2006, Vazquez was 11-6 with a 5.13 ERA.... Cherry pick all you want, but his record is clear.

 

I'm not going to try and argue too hard. I was disappointed in the way he finished this year too.

 

I just don't think it's a good idea to get rid of a healthy veteran starter whose career ERA is well below league average unless you have somebody to replace him.

 

Btw... I liked how you said "cherry pick all you want" and then you quoted his ERA on a specific date from mid-season 2006 to make a point.

 

 

(Not picking on you. Just friendly abuse.)

[santo=dorf]

Only trade Javy if the deal brings us back something useful. You can't jsut give away a guy who's a guarantee for a sub 4.50 era.

That's correct. Javy has never had a season where his ERA was over 4.50.

[ILMOU]

A brief comparison of our starters:

 

Buerhle average outing: 6.43 IP

Buehrle innings 1-3: 394 AB, .277/.321/.416/.737

Buehrle innings 4-6: 364 AB, .294/.332/.448/.779

Buehrle innings 7-9: 95 AB, .253/.304/.358/.662

 

Vazquez average outing: 6.31 IP

Vazquez innings 1-3: 378 AB, .209/.307/.407/.714

Vazquez innings 4-6: 358 AB, .288/.332/.494/.826

Vazquez innings 7-9: 79 AB, .215/.287/.329/.616

 

Danks average outing: 5.91 IP

Danks innings 1-3: 358 AB, .223/.296/.324/.621

Danks innings 4-6: 320 AB, .250/.288/.394/.682

Danks innings 7-9: 61 AB, .361/.409/.525/.934

 

Floyd average outing: 6.25 IP

Floyd innings 1-3: 370 AB, .230/.311/.368/.679

Floyd innings 4-6: 341 AB, .240/.299/.469/.768

Floyd innings 7-9: 76 AB, .303/.316/.553/.869

 

When you look at Buehrle's numbers, they are always like this for some reason. He gives up a lot of hits but his game balls allow him to continue pitching. Buehrle's jockstrap is larger than Javy's Puerto Rican home which he'll return to once his playing days are over.

 

When you look at Danks and Floyd you see young guys getting tired. They dominate until late and then they falter, which doesn't hurt quite as much because by that time they have done their jobs and the late inning relief crew can come in and do theirs.

 

When you look at Javy you see a guy that almost allows a .500 SLG% in the middle of the freaking game. That third time through the lineup is brutal for him and it sucks to happen in the 4th-6th innings, as that is the time for a team to take control of a ballgame. When the offense keeps it close or puts the team ahead, it has to be demoralizing for the players to have a guy like Javy out there coughing up the momentum or control over the game because that puts them in a position where they have to score runs in the 7th inning or later.

 

Excellent analysis. This really crystallizes why so many of us detractors find Javy so frustrating.

 

[Steve9347]

That's correct. Javy has never had a season where his ERA was over 4.50.

Ok, so 3 of his last 5 were over 4.50.

 

Zoinks, Scoob.

[caulfield12]

Nah...

 

It's Liriano, Baker, Blackburn, Slowey, with Perkins last.

 

In fact, the Twins skipped Perkins a couple of times late in the year.

 

 

Blackburn was very shaky down the stretch as well...it was a "lesser of two evils argument" to see who they'd skip over the final week, and they moved back Perkins who waited about one week to start in the infamous Friday-Sunday series against the Royals that doomed the Twins' chances ultimately.

 

Baker might end up being the best pitcher on that staff unless Liriano's 94-96 MPH heater comes back along with a high 80's (not lower 80's) slider.

 

Slowey is what Matt Guerrier was supposed to be when he was coming up with the Sox...Greg Maddux-Lite.

 

The problem with Wakefield is he doesn't seem overly concerned about earning a high salary. He took well below market value (for a "reliable" innings eater) to stay in Boston so they could spend their money in other areas. IMO, he will probably retire, that's what the indications are...who knows...maybe watching Haeger for the last 5 years and Charlie Hough before him, KW will get the idea to at least make an inquiry. Wakefield would be adequate I guess, in a Paul Byrdish way...and probably put up better numbers than C. Richard over a full season as a starter. That said, having Vazquez and Wakefield at the back of the rotation puts a little more pressure on Danks, Buehrle and Floyd. Overall, not the worse scenario (with Poreda also waiting in the wings), but there are better ones out there (I hope). Brad Penny was mentioned in the other section. I'd rather take a risk on fixing Penny than one year of Wakefield at US Cellular.

Edited November 5, 2008 by caulfield12

[Wanne]

I don't think anybody's questioning Javy's stuff...I think they're questioning his mental fortitude. This year it was giving back runs the next inning or giving up a big inning...as well as not coming through in the big games. Last year was he'd have a meltdown in either the 5th or 6th inning and taxing the bullpen every outing. I think with Javy...it's just mental. I honestly think Kenny would be spending good money to have an onstaff sports psychologist with some of the guys on the roster.

 

Like some have said...if the return is good...sure. But I wouldn't deal him just to deal him.

[caulfield12]

I don't think anybody's questioning Javy's stuff...I think they're questioning his mental fortitude. This year it was giving back runs the next inning or giving up a big inning...as well as not coming through in the big games. Last year was he'd have a meltdown in either the 5th or 6th inning and taxing the bullpen every outing. I think with Javy...it's just mental. I honestly think Kenny would be spending good money to have an onstaff sports psychologist with some of the guys on the roster.

 

Like some have said...if the return is good...sure. But I wouldn't deal him just to deal him.

 

 

See the following, Doctor.

 

Konerko

Quentin

Vazquez

 

Just to name the three most susceptible to fighting themselves. Maybe Swisher, too. And one for KW and Ozzie.

[Wanne]

See the following, Doctor.

 

Konerko

Quentin

Vazquez

 

Just to name the three most susceptible to fighting themselves. Maybe Swisher, too. And one for KW and Ozzie.

 

I think definitely replace Q with Swisher. Hopefully Q's learned his lesson with what happened. Other than that I love the intensity...just control the outbursts that could cause yourself and physical harm (thus hurting the team). But Swish...I think he mentally had his head so far up has arse with a lack of self-confidence...it effected his overall game. Another prime candidate...Logan. If everybody recalls at the beginning of the year he was lights out...had a few bad outings and it was all downhill from there.

[caulfield12]

I think definitely replace Q with Swisher. Hopefully Q's learned his lesson with what happened. Other than that I love the intensity...just control the outbursts that could cause yourself and physical harm (thus hurting the team). But Swish...I think he mentally had his head so far up has arse with a lack of self-confidence...it effected his overall game. Another prime candidate...Logan. If everybody recalls at the beginning of the year he was lights out...had a few bad outings and it was all downhill from there.

 

 

Logan's a good call...just not sure if KW and Ozzie have thrown in the towel with him yet. Still, he can be showcased in the spring. He's not Sean Tracey...lots of teams are on the lookout for lefties who throw 92-94 mph out of the pen.

 

Brian Anderson and Josh Fields also come to mind. I think Josh lets things outside of his control get to him too much, and he really seems affected by the media and perception.

 

Didn't Thornton go to a sports psychologist? MacDougal, with his arm and stuff, would be yet another candidate.

 

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Logan's a good call...just not sure if KW and Ozzie have thrown in the towel with him yet. Still, he can be showcased in the spring. He's not Sean Tracey...lots of teams are on the lookout for lefties who throw 92-94 mph out of the pen.

 

Brian Anderson and Josh Fields also come to mind. I think Josh lets things outside of his control get to him too much, and he really seems affected by the media and perception.

 

Didn't Thornton go to a sports psychologist? MacDougal, with his arm and stuff, would be yet another candidate.

Logan would be a good fit for the Cubs. Not just because they also suck, but because the Cubs could always send him to their Triple A team in Iowa, and if I'm not mistaken, there are a lot of cows in Iowa that Logan could milk if things don't work out for him on the mound.

 

Anderson seems to have gotten some of the stuff in his head figured out. At this point I think the issue is mostly mechanical and the fact that he doesn't get regular play.

 

Fields I agree with you on, but I cut the guy a lot of slack because he's been battling injuries and after impressing in '07 he got sent back to the minors. I'll wait for a while before I call him a headcase.

 

MacDougal, with his delivery, is never going to find a consistent release point. He'll always be hit-or-miss, mostly hit.

[Kyyle23]

Brad Penny was mentioned in the other section. I'd rather take a risk on fixing Penny than one year of Wakefield at US Cellular.

 

 

Who is going to fix Penny's shoulder? Coop?

[caulfield12]

Who is going to fix Penny's shoulder? Coop?

 

Why Dr. James Andrews, of course. Or Dr. Frank Jobe.