Congressional Elections Results Thread

[bmags]

Then why is that effect so much larger in Alaska than in Hawaii?

 

There is a lot of state pride in Hawaii, I think the opportunity to vote for a Hawaiian president even after victory is a greater push than the opportunity to vote for your governor after you already know they lost.

[EvilMonkey]

http://www.politicsinminnesota.com/

Nothing to see here......move along......No new votes being added here.......

 

The Recount: Breaking News on Mountain Iron Precinct One

Posted 12:04 pm, November 7th, 2008 by Sarah JanecekU.S. Senate recount

 

At 7:22 p.m. last night, the Secretary of State's Web site was updated (after working hours) to reflect an additional 100 voters.

 

The precinct reporting was Mountain Iron Precinct One.

 

Every one of those 100 votes was cast for U.S. Sen. Barack Obama...and DFL Senate candidate Al Franken.

 

Mountain Iron is in legislative District 5A.

 

In 2006, 5A voted 74.3% for U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and 22.6% for then-U.S. Rep. Mark Kennedy. In 2004, 5A voted 65.9% for U.S. Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) and 30.2% for President George W. Bush. In 2002, 5A voted 69.9% for Fritz Mondale and 26.4% for U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN).

 

Isn't 100 new votes for Obama and Franken in Mountain Iron Precinct One statistically impossible?

 

[We're working on other recount stories for today's Weekly Report and we'll post at least one of them here later today.]

 

Update 2:40 p.m.: The Coleman campaign has just filed a data practices request. From the press release,"As improbably and statistically dubious chunks of votes appear and disappear overwhelmingly benefitting Al Franken, the Coleman for Senate campaign today filed a data pactices request with county auditors and the Secretary of State requesting data related to Election Night results, records related to ballot security and information relating to all revisions made to the results since being reported on Election Night."

I can't find the link, but I read somewhere that the tape they provided with the new totals on it had the wrong date. The optical scanners make a printout when done, and the election judges are supposed to sign it and make it available for public display. Apparently that wasnt done. Give them enouugh time, I am sure they can 'fix' that date error on the tape.

 

[ChiSox_Sonix]

http://www.politicsinminnesota.com/

Nothing to see here......move along......No new votes being added here.......

 

 

I can't find the link, but I read somewhere that the tape they provided with the new totals on it had the wrong date. The optical scanners make a printout when done, and the election judges are supposed to sign it and make it available for public display. Apparently that wasnt done. Give them enouugh time, I am sure they can 'fix' that date error on the tape.

 

 

I was a statistics major and yes, if 100% of 100 votes went one way, even if you assume that 70% is the norm would be considered a statistically almost-impossibility (there is no impossibility).

 

However, i thought it was reported that the number was under 100 and the '1' got dropped in first the pass. For example it really was 140 and they wrote 40 on accident.

[NorthSideSox72]

I was a statistics major and yes, if 100% of 100 votes went one way, even if you assume that 70% is the norm would be considered a statistically almost-impossibility (there is no impossibility).

 

However, i thought it was reported that the number was under 100 and the '1' got dropped in first the pass. For example it really was 140 and they wrote 40 on accident.

Yes, it was. And quoted in this forum somewhere, earlier.

 

[EvilMonkey]

Yes, it was. And quoted in this forum somewhere, earlier.

Different county. And it was 100 new votes for Frankin, AND 100 new votes for Obama. Those two together make it even more impossible to do. And there could be no reporting error there by a human, since it was the optical scanners, which transmit the totals themselves.

Edited November 7, 2008 by Alpha Dog

[NorthSideSox72]

Different county. And it was 100 new votes for Frankin, AND 100 new votes for Obama. Those two together make it even more impossible to do. And there could be no reporting error there by a human, since it was the optical scanners, which transmit the totals themselves.

Hm. No idea then. I guess we'll have to see how the recount shakes out.

 

[Rex Kickass]

It appears that the county board of elections transmits the numbers to the state. And there was an error in the transmission. The county registrar called in vote totals on Tuesday night, and those totals from the county did not match in the state's official count. I would assume in this case that the state does not have one centralized location for data to be sent to for computer security reasons, I'd wager.

 

http://www.minnpost.com/braublog/2008/11/0..._funny_business

[mr_genius]

yeah, how many more times are they going tohave to recount those votes to make up the difference there?

 

The Minnesota 'recount' is going to be ground zero for the completely bats*** crazy left wing of the Democrat party. Expect the worst, they will do anything to get someone as crazy as them into the senate.

[NorthSideSox72]

The Minnesota 'recount' is going to be ground zero for the completely bats*** crazy left wing of the Democrat party. Expect the worst, they will do anything to get someone as crazy as them into the senate.

I expect the shenanigans to be equally bizarre in Alaska.

 

And of course, bats*** crazy knows no party.

 

[mr_genius]

I expect the shenanigans to be equally bizarre in Alaska.

 

And of course, bats*** crazy knows no party.

 

i guess at least Franken hasn't been convicted of a felony involving bribes. i suppose if both are in the senate Al will actually have someone to look down upon and lecture to about responsible governing.

[Balta1701]

The Minnesota 'recount' is going to be ground zero for the completely bats*** crazy left wing of the Democrat party. Expect the worst, they will do anything to get someone as crazy as them into the senate.

And so the Republicans have never done anything bat**** crazy (like a month of ranting about ACORN or jeopardizing their entire administration by their actions through the DOJ or having an angry mob break down the doors and charge in to a room where a recount is happening) that would make them go hard after a recount?

 

 

[Balta1701]

i guess at least Franken hasn't been convicted of a felony involving bribes. i suppose if both are in the senate Al will actually have someone to look down upon and lecture to about responsible governing.

Coleman may be working on that though...

[mr_genius]

And so the Republicans have never done anything bat**** crazy (like a month of ranting about ACORN or jeopardizing their entire administration by their actions through the DOJ or having an angry mob break down the doors and charge in to a room where a recount is happening) that would make them go hard after a recount?

 

 

i have full confidence in the Democrats ability to be as bad as the worst Republicans. keep defending ACORN, i guess fraud is an important element in Democrat voting schemes

Edited November 8, 2008 by mr_genius

[mr_genius]

Coleman may be working on that though...

 

Franken would be a national disgrace. Coleman is fine.

[Balta1701]

Franken would be a national disgrace. Coleman is fine.

I wouldn't say that. He's facing a potential investigation for accepting unreported clothing gifts of significant, Palin-level value from a Republican donor. That's sort of on hold until after the election/recount.

[mr_genius]

I wouldn't say that. He's facing a potential investigation for accepting unreported clothing gifts of significant, Palin-level value from a Republican donor. That's sort of on hold until after the election/recount.

 

 

desperation sets in for the Democrats in the MN senate race. face it, Franken could very well to lose. don't worry, the Democrats still control the Senate, House, and soon the White House.

Edited November 8, 2008 by mr_genius

[Balta1701]

The Star-Tribune has an analysis from the MN race of where the majority of the undervotes came from in the Senate Race relative to the Pres. Race. Unsurprisingly, they mostly came from counties Obama won. Typically, you sort of expect 1st time voters to have a higher undervote rate, especially with those sorts of machines, because they may not mark them completely or accurately. The recount will look at many of those by hand to go after voter intent.

An Associated Press analysis of the nearly 25,000-vote difference in presidential and Senate race tallies shows that most ballots lacking a recorded Minnesota Senate vote were cast in counties won by Democrat Barack Obama.

 

The finding could have implications for Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken, who are headed for a recount separated by the thinnest of margins — a couple hundred votes, or about 0.01 percent.

 

Though some voters may have intentionally bypassed the race, others may have mismarked their ballot or optical scanning machines may have misread them. A recount due to begin Nov. 19 will use manual inspection to detect such ballots.

 

Three counties — Hennepin, Ramsey and St. Louis — account for 10,540 votes in the dropoff between the two races. Each saw Obama win with 63 percent or more.

 

Larry Jacobs, a University of Minnesota political science professor, said the dropoff analysis creates a "zone of uncertainty" that could become a focal point for the campaigns and election officials.

 

"These numbers present a roadmap for a Franken challenge," he said. "It suggests there are about 10,000 votes in the largest Democratic counties that are potentially going to tilt in Franken's direction."

 

The Minnesota ballots that showed a presidential vote, but no Senate vote, are called the "undervote."

 

Statewide, more than 18,000 of those ballots came from counties won by Obama with more than half the vote. About 6,100 were in counties won by McCain with at least 50 percent.

 

In 13 counties, the two ran about even; in all, those counties combined for 707 ballots without a Senate preference.

[EvilMonkey]

If they can't figure out how to mark a ballot correctly, they are too dumb to vote and should have just stayed home. Al Frankin is a very polarizing candidate. I can see many Democrats not voting for him because he is an ass, but not wanting to actually cast a vote for the other side.

[Chet Lemon]

i guess at least Franken hasn't been convicted of seven felonies involving bribes. i suppose if both are in the senate Al will actually have someone to look down upon and lecture to about responsible governing.

 

fixed

 

[EvilMonkey]

i guess at least Franken hasn't been convicted of a felony involving bribes. i suppose if both are in the senate Al will actually have someone to look down upon and lecture to about responsible governing.

Just multiple counts of tax evasion, which he of course blames on the accountant.

[mr_genius]

Just multiple counts of tax evasion, which he of course blames on the accountant.

 

Of course, it's not his fault.

[Cknolls]

The Star-Tribune has an analysis from the MN race of where the majority of the undervotes came from in the Senate Race relative to the Pres. Race. Unsurprisingly, they mostly came from counties Obama won. Typically, you sort of expect 1st time voters to have a higher undervote rate, especially with those sorts of machines, because they may not mark them completely or accurately. The recount will look at many of those by hand to go after voter intent.

 

 

You cannot have a recount take into account voter intent on optical scanner machines. The machine tells you if you undervoted before you o.k. your ballot. Hence, no need to deem voter intent; unless.... you WANT to deem voter intent... for say 207 more votes.

[Cknolls]

The single most illuminating account of the shifting Coleman-Franken election results that I have found since the numbers started moving after 100 percent of precincts had reported Wednesday morning is this column by John Lott:

 

When voters woke up on Wednesday morning after the election, Senator Norm Coleman led Al Franken by what seemed like a relatively comfortable 725 votes. By Wednesday night, that lead had shrunk to 477. By Thursday night, it was down to 336. By Friday, it was 239. Late Sunday night, the difference had gone down to just 221 -- a total change over 4 days of 504 votes.

 

Amazingly, this all has occurred even though there hasn't even yet been a recount. Just local election officials correcting claimed typos in how the numbers were reported. Counties will certify their results today, and their final results will be sent to the secretary of state by Friday. The actual recount won't even start until November 19.

 

Correcting these typos was claimed to add 435 votes to Franken and take 69 votes from Coleman. Corrections were posted in other races, but they were only a fraction of those for the Senate. The Senate gains for Franken were 2.5 times the gain for Obama in the presidential race count, 2.9 times the total gain that Democrats got across all Minnesota congressional races, and 5 times the net loss that Democrats suffered for all state House races.

 

Virtually all of Franken's new votes came from just three out of 4130 precincts, and almost half the gain (246 votes) occurred in one precinct -- Two Harbors, a small town north of Duluth along Lake Superior -- a heavily Democratic precinct where Obama received 64 percent of the vote. None of the other races had any changes in their vote totals in that precinct.

 

To put this change in perspective, that single precinct's corrections accounted for a significantly larger net swing in votes between the parties than occurred for all the precincts in the entire state for the presidential, congressional, or state house races.

 

The two other precincts (Mountain Iron in St. Louis county and Partridge Township in Pine county) accounted for another 100 votes each. The change in each precinct was half as large as the pickup for Obama from the corrections for the entire state.

 

The Minneapolis Star Tribune attributed these types of mistakes to "exhausted county officials," and that indeed might be true, but the sizes of the errors in these three precincts are surprisingly large.

 

Indeed, the 504 total new votes for Franken from all the precincts is greater than adding together all the changes for all the precincts in the entire state for the presidential, congressional, and state house races combined (a sum of 482). It was also true that precincts that gave Obama a larger percentage of the vote were statistically more likely to make a correction that helped Franken.

 

The recent Washington State 2006 gubernatorial recount is probably most famous for the discovery of ballots in heavily Democratic areas that had somehow missed being counted the first and even second time around. Minnesota is already copying that, though thus far on a much smaller scale, with 32 absentee ballots being discovered in Democratic Hennepin County after all the votes had already been counted. When those votes are added in, they seemed destined to cut Coleman's lead further.

 

Indeed, it is probably through the discovery of new votes that Franken has his best shot of picking up new votes. Despite the press pushing a possible replay of election judges divining voters' intentions by looking at "hanging chads" to see if voters meant to punch a hole, that shouldn't be an issue in Minnesota. The reason is simple: optical scan vote counting machines return ballots to voters if no vote is recorded for a contested race.

 

The Associated Press piece with the title "Most Minn. Senate 'undervotes' are from Obama turf" misinformed readers about what undervotes really imply. The Minneapolis Star Tribune headline similarly claimed "An analysis of ballots that had a vote for president but no vote for U.S. senator could have recount implications."

 

Voters themselves insert their ballot into the machine that reads and records their votes, and if the machine finds that a vote isn't recorded, voters can either mark the race that they forgot to mark or didn't mark clearly. Or if voters "overvoted" and accidentally marked too many candidates, voters can also get a fresh ballot. There should be no role to divine voters' intentions. If a voter wanted a vote recorded for a particular race, the machine tells him whether his vote in all the races was counted.

 

But voters also have the right not to vote in particular races. In this election, 0.4 percent of Minnesotans didn't want to vote for president. The number for the Senate race was only slightly higher at 0.8 percent. For congressional and state House races, the rates were 3 and 3.5 percent.

 

This pattern of fewer people voting in less important elections has been observed as long as people have studied elections. There are always at least a few people who don't vote for even the most closely contested races at the top of the ballot and fewer people follow and vote for races the farther down the ballot that you go. But this is not evidence of mistakes, quite the contrary.

 

With ACORN filing more than 43,000 registration forms this year, 75 percent of all new registrations in the state, Minnesota was facing vote fraud problems even before the election. Even a small percentage of those registrations resulting in fraudulent votes could tip this election.

 

To many, it just seems like too much of a coincidence that Minnesota's one tight race just happens to be the race with the most "corrected" votes by far. But the real travesty will be to start letting election officials divine voter's intent. If you want to discourage people from voting, election fraud is one sure way of doing it.

 

Since Lott wrote his column, Coleman's margin has shrunk yet again. As of this evening, the Minnesota Secretary of State's site reports that Coleman's margin over Franken has shrunk from 221 to 206 votes.

 

The incredibly stupid AP article by Brian Bakst that is discussed by Lott was run by the Star Tribune over the weekend and is accessible here. Perhaps some day someone will explain how it is that a senior research scholar at the University of Maryland writing for FOX News has just eaten the lunch of the Minnesota press corps that is toying with this story, but we can probably figure that out on our own.

 

JOHN adds: Based on my own research, I'm convinced that the two big increases in Franken's total that have been clearly reported on--Mountain Iron Precinct 1 and Partridge Township--are legitimate. The Coleman campaign sent a representative to Mountain Iron today to get to the bottom of that 100-vote jump, but the "corrected" totals look right in the context of the other races in Precinct 1 and the results in Precinct 2. I'll report further if the campaign comes up with anything, but if the revised total were wrong there should be a Republican election judge jumping up and down, and no such thing has been reported.

 

I don't know what the story is in Two Harbors, but the one Franken bump that is clearly dubious is the 30-plus absentee ballots that a Democrat ostensibly discovered in the back seat of her car. There is no way that should happen. There is, I suspect, much more of the same to come

 

[Cknolls]

As of this morning, Norm Coleman leads Al Franken by 206 votes in the results reported for the Minnesota Senate seat at issue this year. The mandatory recount is to begin next week.

 

Hennepin County includes the city of Minneapolis and its suburbs. It is Minnesota's most populous county. One of our readers served as an election judge on November 4 for a precinct in Hennepin County and writes to reiterate a point we have previously noted:

 

As "machine judge" it was my duty to set up and take down the voting machine. I still find it very surprising that there has been no attention to the issue pertaining to problems with transmitting the election results in Hennepin county. I followed up with other city authorities and confirmed what I had heard.

 

The way the process is to work is that the voting machine or optical scanner is set up in the morning and a tape is run that is left in the machine showing a zero sum total for all the candidates. The polls are then opened and the ballots are fed in throughout the day. There is a counter on the machine which shows how many ballots have been counted, so that a comparison to the number of ballots used can be made. At the end of the day, the polling location is closed, and the absentee ballots are then addressed and fed into the machine.

 

Once all this is done, we must close out the totals. This entails a number of steps, one of which is transmitting the results. There is a modem in each of the voting machines which can dial up the county and send the results before the official tape is printed within the machine. This offers a level of security as the results are now off site, and the Official Tape with the totals is still at the precinct.

 

What happened on election night was Hennepin County set up the wrong IP address for all the machines in the county. There was no way to transmit the results to a secure off site location. Instead all the precinct's needed to pull the electronic cards out of the machine, along with the tape, and head to City Hall to consolidate and then have them sent to the County. This means that one person had all the voting results and ballots in their possession for that precinct. So it certainly dropped the level of security a level.

 

So in my mind the process was not followed, and the integrity of the procedure was flawed, if not corrupted. I personally recorded the totals from my precinct to view and ensure they were recorded properly, however some judges after working 16 hours, may not have felt the need to be as diligent, nor hang around to the very end. A cynic could say something could have been swapped out in the process.

 

Someone should be asking Hennepin County officials and [Minnesota Secretary of State] Mark Ritchie, why the transmission of votes from these machines did not work. and how can they ensure the integrity of all the vote totals without this added step. I really believe this needs to be addressed. This system did not work as it was designed and someone needs to explain why.

 

I can't find any report of the events raised by our reader in the local press. If accurate, it is an important element in the story now being played out.

 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

Game On: Obama Dispatches Aides To Georgia Senate Race

 

Democratic officials confirm that Barack Obama is sending aides to help with the runoff senatorial campaign in Georgia, putting his post-election coattails to an immediate test.

 

Organizers who worked on behalf of the Illinois Democrat are heading to the Peach State to offer similar assistance to Jim Martin, the Democratic challenger who is facing a second-round contest against incumbent Saxby Chambliss after neither candidate received 50 percent of the initial vote.

 

The investment by Obama, confirmed by an official working on behalf of the Senate campaign, apparently includes "ground team" members as well as "online specialists and bloggers," and represents one of the earliest tests of the influence he can wield on the political landscape. A Daily Kos diarist first heard about the move from the Martin team.