Congressional Elections Results Thread

[southsider2k5]

If we are using a purely stats argument as Silver would, then those sorts of chance occurances - accidental mistaken number transposition and the line - in theory, that should help neither candidate (or both equally). In theory.

 

Exactly. And yet they haven't. And of course they are ignored by this particular statistical analysis to paint one side of the picture.

[NorthSideSox72]

Exactly. And yet they haven't. And of course they are ignored by this particular statistical analysis to paint one side of the picture.

No question that Silver has a port list. His statistical stuff is fascinating, though. His predictions for the election and the primaries were pretty damn impressive.

 

[Balta1701]

Now how does that factor in the counties where Frankin gained 100 votes while Coleman gained none?

The fact that he's looking solely at the "Recount" numbers, not the numbers that came in gradually before the official vote was certified?

[mr_genius]

If we are using a purely stats argument as Silver would, then those sorts of chance occurances - accidental mistaken number transposition and the line - in theory, that should help neither candidate (or both equally). In theory.

 

i can calculate the odds of having 100 votes for Franken and 0 for Coleman in a random sample in a 50-50 election. trust me, they will be staggering, suggesting some shananigans. 1/2 probability of a Franken vote to the 100th power; think 1 to 7.9 x 10 to the 31 power chance; 79 followed by 30 zeros, or 79,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 . calculate (.5)^100 get 7.88861e-31. yea, uh, thats likely. i'm sure he hit that magic 1 in 79,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

 

can also use the stats of percent of Obama that voted Franken overall and work in the percentage that voted Obama in a certain district of having a 100-0 pro-Franken random sample. again the chance going to be ridiculous, unless this is like a 95% Obama district these votes came from.

 

and wasn't it 200 found votes that were 200-0 Franken? just goign to make it that much more crazy in the odds.

Edited November 25, 2008 by mr_genius

[southsider2k5]

The fact that he's looking solely at the "Recount" numbers, not the numbers that came in gradually before the official vote was certified?

 

Exactly.

[NorthSideSox72]

Election canvassing board unanimously rejects Franken's request to include thousands of absentee ballots. Looks like they are going to court.

 

[mr_genius]

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/26...nesota.recount/

 

after 80 precent of the recount complete, Coleman leads by238.

[Balta1701]

after 80 precent of the recount complete, Coleman leads by238.

With what, 4000 or so challenged ballots and 2 or 3 legal questions (absentee ballots, disappearing ballots during the recounts) still remaining?

[mr_genius]

With what, 4000 or so challenged ballots and 2 or 3 legal questions (absentee ballots, disappearing ballots during the recounts) still remaining?

 

and countless 'found' ballots to be put into the Franken count. oh i'm sure they keep trying to scam the election.

[Balta1701]

and countless 'found' ballots to be put into the Franken count. oh i'm sure they keep trying to scam the election.

Oh for crying out loud this is just getting stupid. I'm sure only the Franken campaign is trying to do anything to win the election. Norm Coleman and his campaign are by far the most honorable people in human history.

[mr_genius]

Oh for crying out loud this is just getting stupid. I'm sure only the Franken campaign is trying to do anything to win the election. Norm Coleman and his campaign are by far the most honorable people in human history.

 

whats getting stupid, the Franken campaign? good point, but i think they are currently in desperation mode. his campaign was really bad all along. i mean he couldn't even win a blowout Obama state in a toxic environment for Republicans. horrible candidate.

Edited November 26, 2008 by mr_genius

[Disco72]

Anyone got any predictions for the GA race? I think Chambliss wins with at least a 4-5% margin.

 

Turnout is going to be very low, I think. In metro Atlanta, I waited about an hour and a half for the General Election. Today, about the same time of day as I voted in the General, there was not a single person there. Nobody was leaving as I came in, and nobody was coming in as I left. Pretty sad.

[HuskyCaucasian]

I think Chambliss wins with at least a 4-5% margin.

agreed. The only shots the democrats had to win that race was election day.

Edited December 2, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[Chet Lemon]

Chambliss wins reelection

[mr_genius]

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/w...2/foundballots/

 

more found ballots

 

they favor Franken, surprise surprise. i guess they realized a 171-0 count wouldn't work again. only 91-54 advantage for Al Franken.

 

"Given the magnitude of the difference, we request that you take steps to re-verify the number of individuals who voted in Maplewood Precinct 6, to reassure both this office and the public that these newly found votes were validly cast." Deputy Secretary of State Jim Gelbmann wrote

 

also looks like Chambliss has a 20% point lead with like 70% of the ballots counted. without Obama on the ticket Martin didn't really stand a chance.

Edited December 3, 2008 by mr_genius

[Balta1701]

Franken camp believes they may have the lead by their current method of gaining info about the challenged ballots. Could just be spin.

In a briefing going on right now with reporters, Al Franken's lead recount lawyer Marc Elias made a stunning announcement: According to the campaign's methodology of tracking the recount results, they believe Al Franken now leads Norm Coleman by a margin of 22 votes.

 

This would be the first time that Franken has claimed a lead in this drawn-out process, and was clearly made possible by the discovery yesterday of ballots in the suburban St. Paul town of Maplewood, which gave him a net gain of 37 votes.

 

A few caveats are necessary. The Franken camp's methodology involves taking down the opinions of the local election officials regarding the challenged ballots, and assuming that all the challenges will result in those local officials being upheld by the state canvassing board. As such, we are dependent on the Franken camp being complete and accurate in their homework, and also on their underlying assumption proving to be correct.

 

There are also still about 138,000 ballots left to count, which could contain a whole lot more surprises.

 

Late Update: Elias also announced that the campaign is withdrawing 633 of their ballot challenges that they've concluded have no chance at all of being upheld, the first step by either campaign in pulling back on that particularly nutty element of this recount. This also means that Coleman's apparent lead under other methodologies, which exclude all challenged ballots, will be increasing by around 600 votes.

[mr_genius]

Recount complete in Minnestota, Coleman wins by 192. 130 votes went missing in a county, so that county isn't verifying their count yet.

 

now the election will likely move to the 'go to court' phase as Franken will try to get more in his tally.

[Balta1701]

Recount complete in Minnestota, Coleman wins by 192. 130 votes went missing in a county, so that county isn't verifying their count yet.

 

now the election will likely move to the 'go to court' phase as Franken will try to get more in his tally.

Actually, that is not the next step, nor is the recount complete, and you can not say Coleman has won. There are still some 5000 challenged ballots, none of which have been counted yet, all of which will be ruled on within about 2 weeks by the state's election board.

 

The Franken campaign has kept a tally of the recommendation of the local elections commissioners about what to do with each of the challenged ballots. If those recommendations were held up at a 100% rate, they say they'd win by 4 votes.

[mr_genius]

Actually, that is not the next step, nor is the recount complete, and you can not say Coleman has won. There are still some 5000 challenged ballots, none of which have been counted yet, all of which will be ruled on within about 2 weeks by the state's election board.

 

The Franken campaign has kept a tally of the recommendation of the local elections commissioners about what to do with each of the challenged ballots. If those recommendations were held up at a 100% rate, they say they'd win by 4 votes.

 

 

[Balta1701]

 

Better to have one of those guys in the Senate from MN than in the White House like we've had for the last 8 years.

 

(ZING!)

[lostfan]

If I'm ever suicidal, I will announce to this board that I'm doing a shot every time I see Balta type "the last 8 years"

[mr_genius]

Interesting side note to the 2008 elections, Republican Anh Cao defeats indicted Democratic U.S. Rep. William Jefferson in New Orleans congressional district.

 

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081207/D94TPC680.html

Edited December 7, 2008 by mr_genius

[EvilMonkey]

Interesting side note to the 2008 elections, Republican Anh Cao defeats indicted Democratic U.S. Rep. William Jefferson in New Orleans congressional district.

 

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081207/D94TPC680.html

Guess he didn't have enough cash in his freezer to bribe enough people to vote his way.

[jasonxctf]

interesting note on the New Orleans race, the winner was just on CNN saying that his team was hoping for a low voter turnout, because if the voters actually showed up, he wouldn't have won.

 

never heard that from a politician before.

[NorthSideSox72]

Interesting side note to the 2008 elections, Republican Anh Cao defeats indicted Democratic U.S. Rep. William Jefferson in New Orleans congressional district.

 

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081207/D94TPC680.html

Good.