Phillies interested in Dye?

[Steve9347]

I was mostly kidding, but you never know how KW's mind works.

I knew you were kidding... I was too!

[knightni]

I knew you were kidding... I was too!

Oh Brian Anderson's evil twin, I can't quit you.

[elrockinMT]

Stop trying to find us Outfielders! We have 4 not counting Wise and Owens! We're not trading 1 OF to keep having too many OF's!

 

 

Plus if you give them time to develop we just mind find our cf'er within our own ranks

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Dye being a future DH really doesn't hinder his value, seeing as he is only signed for one more year. He will make a very solid one year stop gap piece.

By future DH I pretty much meant 2009 and beyond. I think he should be a DH immediately . If some teams see him as an OF that's fine by me but if other NL teams envisions him as a 1 yr. "stop gap piece" wouldn't that limit what they'd be willing to offer ? He's more valuable to an AL team who could convert him to DH if they think his defense becomes less than what they can stomach. 1 year RF/LF piece for NL teams , 1+ yrs. RF/LF/DH piece for AL teams. If he's still playing OF in 2010 I'd be totally shocked.

[caulfield12]

The option for 2010 makes him a lot more attractive IMO.

 

If he has a really good season and is basically injury-free, why wouldn't another team want to keep him?

 

There are quite a few outfielders making more money that are much less productive than JD, and he comes with the added bonus of being great in the community, with kids and is a quiet/understated clubhouse leader/veteran presence.

 

While Jenks, Buerhle and the Big 4 would be more valuable on the open market (maybe even Vazquez), I don't think we'll see him traded. KW knows that his leading the majors in homers since 2005 from his position gives him a net "plus" at that position every year. Unless he gets injured or his defense/range become so atrocious he's a problem, which certainly wasn't the case in 2008.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

As far as Dye is concerned, Chris Rongey last year let a cat out of the bag when he said on his show the White Sox saw Dye as a DH for 2009. He obviously got that information from someone with the White Sox. It also wouldn't surprise me if they got rid of Dye, if Griffey did come back. Chances are Dye would put up better numbers, but Griffey will be a lot cheaper.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

The option for 2010 makes him a lot more attractive IMO.

 

If he has a really good season and is basically injury-free, why wouldn't another team want to keep him?

 

There are quite a few outfielders making more money that are much less productive than JD, and he comes with the added bonus of being great in the community, with kids and is a quiet/understated clubhouse leader/veteran presence.

 

While Jenks, Buerhle and the Big 4 would be more valuable on the open market (maybe even Vazquez), I don't think we'll see him traded. KW knows that his leading the majors in homers since 2005 from his position gives him a net "plus" at that position every year. Unless he gets injured or his defense/range become so atrocious he's a problem, which certainly wasn't the case in 2008.

 

I think JD will be playing in 2010 just not as a RF. It's probable he has 3 more years as a productive (albeit numbers declining) hitter. However his defense already, shall we say, leaves something to be desired. LF/DH much sooner rather than later.

[caulfield12]

Well, we also have the option of flip-flopping him with Quentin/Swisher as well.

 

I think JD has a lot of pride about playing RF, and most of it comes from his arm, or at least the reputation of it. When I saw him play in Macon with the Braves in 1994, he had one of the best arms I ever saw in person (at the minor league level) of anyone, with just a couple of exceptions. Vladimir Guerrero and Ruben Rivera (before injury). Maybe a notch or two below Jose Guillen. It was never a "laser-like" arm like a Clemente or Vladdy or Bo Jackson, but solid/strong/accurate. Sosa, in his "Panther/White Sox/skinny" days, would be another good comparison.

 

Most athletes don't know when it's "time" I guess. I would be surprised if he had very much experience in LF in his entire career...maybe a little research would back that up. Can he make the transition? Sure, yes, he's a good athlete still...just like he theoretically could shift to 1B. But it won't happen until 2010 (if he's still with the club).

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I agree that Dye has tremendous pride but if I may digress I'm almost convinced the Sox ,in an effort to improve the defense, could be leaning towards shifting players to their more experienced positions. We hear of Alexei moving to SS. We also hear from KW that Swisher won't be playing CF if he still is on the team. Quentin has more experience in RF and a good arm. Swisher is more of a 1B/LF. Dye has slowed down and though his arm is still respected I don't think it's all that accurate anymore. I watch about 90% of Sox games. On plays were Dye had to throw I'd make mental notes on where the throw ended up regardless of wether the runner tried to advance and more often than not I'd be thinking its off target.

 

I always give players the benefit of the doubt when I hear others complaining about a players D. Most of us only see the end result , we don't see the jump or route an outfielder takes. Throws were about the only thing I could see where I could gauge the accuracy. He can still make the plays on balls he get's to but being old and slow doesn't get him to the balls it used to in his youth. His height isn't ideal for getting good jumps. He also throws almost entirely without the momentum of getting the strength of your body behind the throw not just the strength of your arm.

 

If Dye doesn't get traded I hope someone on the Sox approaches Dye about playing some LF and DH for the good of the team. Trading Swisher would open up those possibilities even more. Even with no experience in LF Dye is no longer suited to RF full time. I hope he can swallow his pride enough to know Father Time has robbed him of his once above average fielding skills.

Edited November 8, 2008 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[greg775]

Pity Jermaine if he has to go play in Philly.

Chicago v. Philly? Wow.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I'd much rather NOT see the Sox buy high on a soon-to-be 30-year-old former AAAA platoon player coming off of a career year in the National League. If we deal with the Phils and Victorino isn't an option as part of a package then I want the deal centered around Carrasco, but only if the Sox think Carrasco can become a #2-3 starter and pitch out of the back of the rotation in 2009.

 

Personally I'd like to see us deal Javy, Jenks, Dye, and shop one of Swisher/Konerko in order to re-stock the farm, mainly with pitching prospects but also with a CF prospect to put alongside Danks. Shop Dotel too if someone wants to overpay knowing they'll most likely get Type A compensation after '09. If a corner OF spot opens up as a result then the Sox can pursue some guys who may come cheaper talent-wise via trade (meaning we deal more of the Shelby, Richard types and not the Poreda, Beckham, Danks types), like Randy Winn or Brian Giles. Or, sign a guy like Ibanez or Dunn to throw in LF for one year and take over for Thome as a LH DH after '09. Maybe even bring Griffey back as a LF/RF for one year since he wouldn't cost us any draft picks, or do the same with Juan Rivera or Garrett Anderson on a low base as part of a LF platoon.

 

Either way, re-stock the farm and at the same time bring in a couple pitchers who can develop at the back of the rotation while also giving Fields a shot. Because of the strides our new core has made, we should be able to do something similar in '09 that we did in '08, which is partially rebuild yet still remain competitive. That way, going into 2010, we'll have a lot of money to spend, a very young team, and a much better farm system. I think we need to create a better foundation for the franchise to stand on so that we can compete for the next 10-20 years. Maybe I'm just naive, but the intentions behind the last two drafts, plus all the minor league changes including the discovery of the scouting and player development scandal, plus the moves Kenny has made since the 06-07 offseason to create younger core, all has me optimistic about the future. We just need to continue along those lines.

[whitesoxbrian]

I'd love this if we could get Victorino, but that seems out of the question, apparently.

[caulfield12]

I'd much rather NOT see the Sox buy high on a soon-to-be 30-year-old former AAAA platoon player coming off of a career year in the National League. If we deal with the Phils and Victorino isn't an option as part of a package then I want the deal centered around Carrasco, but only if the Sox think Carrasco can become a #2-3 starter and pitch out of the back of the rotation in 2009.

 

Personally I'd like to see us deal Javy, Jenks, Dye, and shop one of Swisher/Konerko in order to re-stock the farm, mainly with pitching prospects but also with a CF prospect to put alongside Danks. Shop Dotel too if someone wants to overpay knowing they'll most likely get Type A compensation after '09. If a corner OF spot opens up as a result then the Sox can pursue some guys who may come cheaper talent-wise via trade (meaning we deal more of the Shelby, Richard types and not the Poreda, Beckham, Danks types), like Randy Winn or Brian Giles. Or, sign a guy like Ibanez or Dunn to throw in LF for one year and take over for Thome as a LH DH after '09. Maybe even bring Griffey back as a LF/RF for one year since he wouldn't cost us any draft picks, or do the same with Juan Rivera or Garrett Anderson on a low base as part of a LF platoon.

 

Either way, re-stock the farm and at the same time bring in a couple pitchers who can develop at the back of the rotation while also giving Fields a shot. Because of the strides our new core has made, we should be able to do something similar in '09 that we did in '08, which is partially rebuild yet still remain competitive. That way, going into 2010, we'll have a lot of money to spend, a very young team, and a much better farm system. I think we need to create a better foundation for the franchise to stand on so that we can compete for the next 10-20 years. Maybe I'm just naive, but the intentions behind the last two drafts, plus all the minor league changes including the discovery of the scouting and player development scandal, plus the moves Kenny has made since the 06-07 offseason to create younger core, all has me optimistic about the future. We just need to continue along those lines.

 

 

That's all fine and good, but KW has always used the minor league system largely as a talent pool for his trades to improve the 25 man roster...at least up until this point.

 

If you trade Jenks and Dotel, that puts an awful lot of pressure on Thornton and Linebrink, and Scott's "iffy" to me coming into 2009 as a reliable pitcher like the first four months of 08.

 

I mean, we all know that we still have a long ways to go to really have a youthful team, and there hasn't been much recentl mention of AJ aging and his throwing problems (yes, 60-70% of it is the pitchers)...which is another major concern as well.

 

If you trade Vazquez, Dye and Swisher/Konerko...well I just don't realistically see how you can compete in 2009...when the Twins will be better, the Indians and Tigers SHOULD be better and the Royals also are making strides.

 

I agree fundamentally with what you're arguing, I just don't think KW is ready to do that quite yet. I do think he will see what is available in exchange for Jenks, Dye and Vazquez, not to mention Swisher and Konerko...but whether he actually pulls the trigger is another question altogether. In the back of his mind, KW knows if he did essentially the same thing with Buehrle and Dye in 2007, he wouldn't have gotten a Division Championship this year.

Edited November 8, 2008 by caulfield12

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

That's all fine and good, but KW has always used the minor league system largely as a talent pool for his trades to improve the 25 man roster...at least up until this point.

Very true. The guys I'd like to see targeted would be ready for AA or higher starting in '09, meaning they'd ideally be MLB ready around mid-to-late 2010 to join Poreda the starter, Beckham the 2B/3B (assuming Alexei sticks at SS), and possibly Danks the CF. 2010/2011 should be the first year in a very long time that we'll have a very nice crop of young, homegrown talent coming up together. Two of the SP would have to be ready to step into the back of the rotation for 2009.

 

In a perfect world, we make moves like this:

 

Jenks for SP ready now + SP prospect

Dye for SP ready now + SP prospect

Paulie/Swisher for SP ready now + CF prospect

Javy for SP prospect + corner OF/1B power prospect

 

Then the 3 SP who are ready now compete for 2 spots in ST. The other goes to the pen or Triple A. Perhaps you bring in a veteran to join the competition, or if not and you use young guys in the 4th and 5th slots, then once Jose Contreras comes back you go to a 6-man rotation, piggy-back the last two starters every 5th day, or have them skip starts.

 

If you trade Jenks and Dotel, that puts an awful lot of pressure on Thornton and Linebrink, and Scott's "iffy" to me coming into 2009 as a reliable pitcher like the first four months of 08.

I doubt Dotel would be moved because the Sox would have to be bowled over given his almost certain Type A status after '09.

 

I would be very confident in Thornton as the closer and I'd be confident in Richard as the second lefty out of the pen. Signing a lefty setup man would probably be a good idea in that situation.

 

As for Linebrink, I'm about as confident in him as I could be for any middle reliever. He had his injury issues last year, but over his career he's been about as dominant of a setup man as you could ever expect. His long-term health and contract viability are still big questions, but that's really it. He got his velocity back late last year after coming back and has always been a first pitch strike kind of guy. No mental issues with him.

 

What it really boils down to is that, no matter how much money you do or do not spend, there will always be questions about your bullpen no matter who you are. These guys go from nobodies to outstanding players every team wants and then back to nobodies again quicker than probably any position in professional sports. The Sox have some guys in Derek Rodriguez, Jon Link, and Kanekoa Teixera that should be ready next year, along with works in progress like Wassermann and Russell plus whoever else they happen to pick up over the offseason, so there is some depth. Obviously that may not matter, but it's hard to build a bullpen you're confident in. Personally I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't trade either Jenks or Dotel and then they both went down for several months with injuries in '09.

 

I mean, we all know that we still have a long ways to go to really have a youthful team, and there hasn't been much recentl mention of AJ aging and his throwing problems (yes, 60-70% of it is the pitchers)...which is another major concern as well.

I'm not concerned about that at all. Catching prospects are way overrated anyway. They hardly ever develop into guys that can hit and when they do there are teams that immediately want to move them to DH or 1B, sometimes even elsewhere. The Russel Martins, Dioner Navarros, and Brian McCanns don't come around often enough to waste time and money looking for them IMO. I'd rather sign a veteran catcher off the free agent market or make a trade for one once that time comes. Get a guy that you know can handle pitchers and swing the bat somewhat decently.

 

If you trade Vazquez, Dye and Swisher/Konerko...well I just don't realistically see how you can compete in 2009...when the Twins will be better, the Indians and Tigers SHOULD be better and the Royals also are making strides.

Let's say by trading those players you end up with a couple of guys at the back of the rotation, one of which can equal Vazquez's 2008 in terms of wins and ERA and another who would be an improvement over Richard (I don't buy him as a starter), and both guys give you the upside of #2's or #3's like Danks and Floyd were. Not only do you get younger and better, but the money saved can go to long-term deals for Quentin and Danks, perhaps others as well.

 

As for taking Swisher/Konerko and Dye out of the lineup, I look at it as being a 2005-like situation. We have soooo much power that we can afford to trade a couple of guys and still hit our 200 HR. If Fields alone plays everyday at 3B, you've got 20-40, somewhere in that range depending on how healthy he is and how much he has to work on his swing. We have no idea how much his injuries were bothering him at the dish, nor do we have any idea how much work he'll be able to get in over the offseason and during ST. A Quentin-Thome-Swisher/Konerko-Ramirez-Fields 3-7 is still quite formidable in terms of power.

 

I agree fundamentally with what you're arguing, I just don't think KW is ready to do that quite yet. I do think he will see what is available in exchange for Jenks, Dye and Vazquez, not to mention Swisher and Konerko...but whether he actually pulls the trigger is another question altogether. In the back of his mind, KW knows if he did essentially the same thing with Buehrle and Dye in 2007, he wouldn't have gotten a Division Championship this year.

I don't know how ready Kenny is to continue getting younger either, but I really hope he does. As far as Buehrle and Dye go, it would have been stupid for Kenny to trade them anyway. At the time Boston was offering us absolute garbage for a half year of Dye, basically players not even worth the draft picks. Buehrle was the same thing and there was NO reason not to extend him. The whole Buehrle fiasco made me ashamed to be a Sox fan. Besides, I'm not talking about trading Buehrle, he's part of our core. Javy isn't a loss like Mark would've been, not even close. Trading Dye makes sense because he's coming off a great year, will be under team control for 2009, possibly 2010 as well, and he's on a below-market deal. If the Sox get offered a bunch of horses*** like Justin Masterson and Wily Mo Pena again then there's no reason to deal him.

Edited November 8, 2008 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I think KW is plenty ready to go younger if he's thinks the Sox can still compete that way. The Alexei,CQ , Danks and Floyd deals were evidence of that. Seems like he just prefers near ML ready talent over AA+/- talent. To think that if we trade Jenks/Vazquez/Dye/etc. and get only ML talent like I have seen some suggest here is absurd and fiscally unreasonable. Unfortunately the more diamonds in the rough KW plucks the more some of these GMs will be wary of trading young talent our way. So it's getting a little bit harder to get young talent as the salaries of free agent superstars keep climbing to ludicrous levels in the currently cruel economic climate.

[Chisoxfn]

What do the Phils really have to offer though. I don't think they have enough to get the Sox to move Dye. Or at least they won't be willing to give up what it takes, nor do I believe they are good partners.

[caulfield12]

Well, let's hope KW can get the deal done with Viciedo.

 

Obviously, this won't be a "low visibility" signing, and there will be more interest in the wake of the success of Alexei...not to mention Viciedo's age and international experience/seasoning makes him more attractive.

 

As mentioned above, while I pretty much agree and have been arguing here, at WSI and even before that at chisox.com for a rebuild of the team, KW has obviously never listened (LOL) and I doubt he will now. He always does what is best for putting the most competitive team out there on a season-by-season basis. At least that has been his modus operandi.

 

I'm just a little skeptical because getting so many pitching prospects that have ceilings of 3 or above...well, it's just not that easy to do. And other GM's will certainly catch on after the first or second trade. You don't think that Daniels or Wade look a little silly for the deals that gave us Danks and Floyd and half of Swisher? (Of course, Gillick probably doesn't care, and has never been the type to look back TOO much).

 

Of course, there are a lot of variables with our bullpen...you don't know what impact, if any, Contreras will have out there. Do we hold onto Dotel hoping for Type A compensation only to see him go down to injury again and lose the window of opportunity to trade a setup guy being paid like some MLB closers in their arbitration years? Maybe the names mentioned before will have a breakout, Logan type of performance and vault from A ball to the majors, but that's only happened twice in my lifetime, with Logan and previously with Scott Radinsky, who was 10X the pitcher Logan was/is.

 

Best-case scenario, if we did make 3-4 of these rebuilding the rotation moves...is that we would mirror the Minnesota Twins' lack of depth and experience in their rotation coming into this season. I guess we'd be better off...in general, because Baker and Liriano were their two most experienced starters. But they ended up getting solid seasons (overall) from Slowey, Blackburn and Perkins until near the end. Then again, the probability of "slippage" with Danks and/or Floyd is pretty high, and you never know when the wear and tear on Mark's arm/should with all those IP will end up in a trip to the DL, or worse, a Cris Carpenter type of situation. Of course, you PLAN on MB being healthy, but I don't think KW is 100% confident that Floyd can repeat his success/impact. I feel better about Danks, especially based on the last weeks of the season...heck, just the Minnesota one game playoff alone.

 

GO HAWKEYES!!!!

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I expect both Danks and Floyd to regress to some degree next year as part of their transformation into veteran big league pitchers, but I don't expect either one of them to fall off the map. Buehrle I don't worry about at all. He didn't work a huge number of innings last year anyway.

 

If Danks and Floyd do regress a bit then that is even more reason to bring in some more young guys. I'd like to see a new, young rotation laid out that pretty much grows up together. The hope would be competition and perhaps another division title in 2009, but really everything would be planned around opening a brand new window of opportunity starting in 2010. If you let Fields and Anderson also show you what they've got, then you have some answers going forward. Plus the free agent market after '09 is going to have some stuff we're going to want.

 

These guys are all unrestricted FA after '09:

 

2B:

Placido Polanco

Brian Roberts

 

3B:

Adrian Beltre

Hank Blalock

Chone Figgins

Chipper Jones

 

OF:

Rick Ankiel

Jason Bay

Carl Crawford

Johnny Damon

Brian Giles

Vladimir Guerrero

Matt Holliday

Hideki Matusi

Xavier Nady

Jason Werth

Randy Winn

 

SP:

Erik Bedard

Justin Duchscherer

Kelvim Escobar

Rich Harden

John Lackey

 

RP:

Joaquin Benoit

Chad Bradford

Octavio Dotel

Mike Gonzalez

John Grabow

Kevin Gregg

Ryan Madson

 

I just left the names I thought were the most interesting, but there will be some players to spend money on and fill remaining holes with. Plus a re-stocked farm system allows us to explore better trade opportunities. With enough money free we could make a very serious run at a couple of these guys. We'd have whatever we traded off the books plus Dotel, Thome, and Contreras coming off as well. That would be another $29M.

Edited November 9, 2008 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[Kalapse]

Carl Crawford has a $10M team option for 2010 that will most definitely be picked up by whatever club owns his rights at the end of the '09 season.

 

And as Dotel, Thome and Contreras come off the books Danks, Floyd and Quentin enter their first year of arbitration and the second for Jenks, his second.

[YASNY]

Just a hunch, but if Quentin is sporting a .900 OPS in mid May, I think the Sox sign him long term. Again, just a hunch.

 

I think that's a pretty good hunch.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Carl Crawford has a $10M team option for 2010 that will most definitely be picked up by whatever club owns his rights at the end of the '09 season.

 

And as Dotel, Thome and Contreras come off the books Danks, Floyd and Quentin enter their first year of arbitration and the second for Jenks, his second.

Ah, the list I copied from said he was unrestricted. Oh well. I don't want Crawford anyway.

 

I don't think any of the agents of those players are at odds with the Sox. I expect the Sox to offer and hopefully work out deals to cover those arbitration years with all three, assuming they all have very good years again in '09.

[Kalapse]

Ah, the list I copied from said he was unrestricted. Oh well. I don't want Crawford anyway.

 

I don't think any of the agents of those players are at odds with the Sox. I expect the Sox to offer and hopefully work out deals to cover those arbitration years with all three, assuming they all have very good years again in '09.

The point is they'll go from being paid just over a million dollars combined to $2M+ each (~$7M for Jenks). So as some of the big contracts are coming off the books the youngin's will need to start getting paid and a few of the other veterans on the team will be getting raises as well.

[southsider2k5]

Very true. The guys I'd like to see targeted would be ready for AA or higher starting in '09, meaning they'd ideally be MLB ready around mid-to-late 2010 to join Poreda the starter, Beckham the 2B/3B (assuming Alexei sticks at SS), and possibly Danks the CF. 2010/2011 should be the first year in a very long time that we'll have a very nice crop of young, homegrown talent coming up together. Two of the SP would have to be ready to step into the back of the rotation for 2009.

 

In a perfect world, we make moves like this:

 

Jenks for SP ready now + SP prospect

Dye for SP ready now + SP prospect

Paulie/Swisher for SP ready now + CF prospect

Javy for SP prospect + corner OF/1B power prospect

 

So in a "perfect world" we take a division title winner and trade 4 of our best players for prospects? When did we become the Marlins?

[caulfield12]

The Marlins moves were more about slashing salary and positioning about the stadium issue.

 

While trading Konerko or Vazquez might be "salary-based" moves in a way, trading Jenks, Dye and Swisher (all reasonably priced, I'll wait to see Swisher's next season to say he's overpaid) aren't as much as they are recalibrating the White Sox engine?

 

Interesting discussion, but highly unlikely. Maybe a couple of pitchers, but we'll never get 3-4. Although I have no doubt that KW would like to get to a position of strength again when he had the luxury of McCarthy and El Duque and then added Vazquez to the mix.

 

Right now, our fifth starters candidates: Richard, Poreda (doubtful for 09 as a starter), Broadway...I guess you can add DJ Carrasco and Horacio Ramirez as options 4/5 to that list as well.

 

[scenario]

I guess you can add DJ Carrasco and Horacio Ramirez as options 4/5 to that list as well.

 

I think we've seen the last of Horacio Ramirez.

 

He's been cut and doubtful he'll be back.