Mets & White Sox Have Been Talking...

[mmmmmbeeer]

We should have traded Bobby at the same time we should have traded MB.....but we didn't trade either of them. So yes, although it's a year or two too late, I'm in favor of trading Jenks. He'll command more than he's actually worth and his return can be used to fill atleast one of our holes with a stud everyday player.

[caulfield12]

Very misleading considering he's been a set-up guy most of his career. If you want to look at it that way Thornton has 5 career saves and 16 blown. I think he'd be a good bet to convert more than 25%. Linebrink has 5 career saves and 29 blown. Dotel was a primary closer for really 1+ season after his phenomenal run as a Houston set-up guy and converted about 80%, and his ERA with Oakland was higher than it was with the White Sox last year. We don't know the circumstances of his appearances so it would be hard to judge exactly what to expect, but to say his career rate is 69.7% and say he's lost a lot of his fastball, so expect worse is wrong. Its amazing how a guy with a .208 BAA averaging 12.36 k/9 innings gets so much grief. Granted he had several bad outings, but he must of been pretty good sometimes.

 

 

I look at Dotel in almost the same way I view Vazquez. Both look really good on paper, but the reality finds something lacking.

 

Now Dotel pitched well in the post-season, but I think you'll find a noticeable downtrend when Linebrink went down and Dotel had to pitch more often in the 8th, rather than just the 7th. In other words, and I don't have the statistic to prove it, whenever he had a really clutch or important game situation, it feels like he failed about 50% of the time.

 

He always pitched great when he was just getting some work in or the lead was more than 2-3 runs, but he really struggled many times in either tie games or when we only had a lead of a couple of runs.

 

In August, he had a 5.56 ERA and FIVE (YES, 5) homers surrendered in only 11 1/3 IP. This is back to my point about Dotel pitching WORSE when Linebrink went down (around July 22nd) and he had to be the 8th inning guy, not just the 7th.

 

September, a so-so 4.32 ERA and two homers in 8 1/3 IP. All told, he gave up 7 HOMERS in less than 20 IP over two plus months. That's something Arnie Munoz and Charlie Haeger might struggle to do if they tried. I lost count of how many walk-off or game "losing" homers Linebrink and Dotel accounted for.

 

His ERA went from 2.85 to 3.76 during this critical time period when the SOX were dying out there in the bullpen (The DJ Carrasco Wilderness, I like to think of it as).

Edited November 9, 2008 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

We should have traded Bobby at the same time we should have traded MB.....but we didn't trade either of them. So yes, although it's a year or two too late, I'm in favor of trading Jenks. He'll command more than he's actually worth and his return can be used to fill atleast one of our holes with a stud everyday player.

 

Mark Buehrle, if we actually wished to trade him, is probably worth more than he was a year ago...not less.

 

Jenks, as has been mentioned, if you find the right deal KW, go ahead and pull the trigger and roll the dice. I'm up for it.

 

[beck72]

No, you don't put Beltran in the leadoff spot. You need to take advantage of his run producing ability and put him somewhere in the middle of the lineup. I'd personally bat him cleanup behind Quentin.

Who's your leadoff man, if CF is filled by Beltran and Getz/ Nix are at 2b? Unless both Dye and Swisher are traded, there aren't many spots for someone to hit #1. The sox have enough 4-7 hitters [with Dye, Thome, PK, Alexei]. They don't have guys at the top.

[beck72]

I look at Dotel in almost the same way I view Vazquez. Both look really good on paper, but the reality finds something lacking.

 

Now Dotel pitched well in the post-season, but I think you'll find a noticeable downtrend when Linebrink went down and Dotel had to pitch more often in the 8th, rather than just the 7th. In other words, and I don't have the statistic to prove it, whenever he had a really clutch or important game situation, it feels like he failed about 50% of the time.

 

He always pitched great when he was just getting some work in or the lead was more than 2-3 runs, but he really struggled many times in either tie games or when we only had a lead of a couple of runs.

 

In August, he had a 5.56 ERA and FIVE (YES, 5) homers surrendered in only 11 1/3 IP. This is back to my point about Dotel pitching WORSE when Linebrink went down (around July 22nd) and he had to be the 8th inning guy, not just the 7th.

 

September, a so-so 4.32 ERA and two homers in 8 1/3 IP. All told, he gave up 7 HOMERS in less than 20 IP over two plus months. That's something Arnie Munoz and Charlie Haeger might struggle to do if they tried. I lost count of how many walk-off or game "losing" homers Linebrink and Dotel accounted for.

 

His ERA went from 2.85 to 3.76 during this critical time period when the SOX were dying out there in the bullpen (The DJ Carrasco Wilderness, I like to think of it as).

Dotel isn't Vazquez-like. He's coming back from injury and hadn't pitched the number of innings he did this year since IIRC, 2004. Vazquez hasn't had any excuses. Dotel had every reason to wear down like he did at year's end. Yet I don't think I heard word one from Dotel about using that as an excuse.

[scenario]

Look, you can throw out all the numbers you want. The eyes don't lie.

Jenks: Got people out. Got saves. Got applause.

Dotel: Made people sick to their stomachs with his abysmal pitching. Dotel, with all due respect, is a joke. Not as bad as MacDougal or Sisco or the other Royal hack we put in games, of course, but a joke noneheless.

 

No.

 

The reason for numbers is because people are prone to being overly influenced by events that stand out as strongly negative (or positive) in their minds.

 

In other words, it's natural for people to look at a few negative events and think "the guy's a bum"... because that's what they remember. It's not the eye's lying... it's a matter of selective memory.

 

Stats help add objectivity to evaluation.

 

And objectively... Dotel was a good relief pitcher this year who had a few memorable bad games.

 

[caulfield12]

Dotel isn't Vazquez-like. He's coming back from injury and hadn't pitched the number of innings he did this year since IIRC, 2004. Vazquez hasn't had any excuses. Dotel had every reason to wear down like he did at year's end. Yet I don't think I heard word one from Dotel about using that as an excuse.

 

 

Dotel had Tommy John surgery in the middle of the 2005 season, on June 1st of that season to be exact.

 

Typically, it takes one season to return, and then you should be fully recovered or even stronger the following season, which would have been the second half of the 2007 season.

 

He had a shoulder strain in 2007 and missed about six weeks (August 10th-September 22nd), but I think any recovery we see from Dotel should already have happened 3 1/2 seasons since the surgery. That can't be an excuse any longer IMO. What you see is what you get, pretty much.

[beck72]

Dotel had Tommy John surgery in the middle of the 2005 season, on June 1st of that season to be exact.

 

Typically, it takes one season to return, and then you should be fully recovered or even stronger the following season, which would have been the second half of the 2007 season.

 

He had a shoulder strain in 2007 and missed about six weeks (August 10th-September 22nd), but I think any recovery we see from Dotel should already have happened 3 1/2 seasons since the surgery. That can't be an excuse any longer IMO. What you see is what you get, pretty much.

I think the sox were very happy with what they got in Dotel. Esp. his 2.98 ERA in 42 1/3 IP at the All star break. The sox had to overuse him, and he wore down in the 2nd half. If there is any talk of trading Jenks [which there seems to be], Dotel would be vital to a strong bullpen in 2009.

 

If the sox were unhappy with Dotel, they could use his good numbers K/ IP, decent ERA, etc. and trade him when he's got value. I haven't heard a peep about trading Dotel. The names that were being thrown out there by KW at the GM meetings are telling.

[elrockinMT]

I think we'd need something in addition to Beltran if we are giving up both Jenks and Vazquez.

 

 

I was reading down the posts to see if anyone would say this before me so here you are and I agree. The clubs ace reliever and at least a #3 starter on most teasm for one player. Once again I point out how much we undervalue our own. I think we got into the playoffs with our two guys, but I don't remember seeing the Mets there

Edited November 9, 2008 by elrockinMT

[elrockinMT]

Mark Buehrle, if we actually wished to trade him, is probably worth more than he was a year ago...not less.

 

Jenks, as has been mentioned, if you find the right deal KW, go ahead and pull the trigger and roll the dice. I'm up for it.

 

 

I think it would be a mistake to trqade Jenks. I was cocnerned about Jenks and what seemed to be his knack for giving up a walk and a hit in each inning he pitched, but towards the last month of the season I saw his velocity getting up there again and that curve making a huge impact. Whatveer was wrong before that seems to have been cured. IMO anyway. Of course Mark Buerhle is still one of out best starters and I just don't think you start messing with your starting pitching. I can't believe there wwere some here calling for Floyd to be traded. Especially when you combine Floydor Vazquez and Jenks and try to get one player, who may be good, but I think has slipped some himself

Edited November 9, 2008 by elrockinMT

[Dick Allen]

I look at Dotel in almost the same way I view Vazquez. Both look really good on paper, but the reality finds something lacking.

 

Now Dotel pitched well in the post-season, but I think you'll find a noticeable downtrend when Linebrink went down and Dotel had to pitch more often in the 8th, rather than just the 7th. In other words, and I don't have the statistic to prove it, whenever he had a really clutch or important game situation, it feels like he failed about 50% of the time.

 

He always pitched great when he was just getting some work in or the lead was more than 2-3 runs, but he really struggled many times in either tie games or when we only had a lead of a couple of runs.

 

In August, he had a 5.56 ERA and FIVE (YES, 5) homers surrendered in only 11 1/3 IP. This is back to my point about Dotel pitching WORSE when Linebrink went down (around July 22nd) and he had to be the 8th inning guy, not just the 7th.

 

September, a so-so 4.32 ERA and two homers in 8 1/3 IP. All told, he gave up 7 HOMERS in less than 20 IP over two plus months. That's something Arnie Munoz and Charlie Haeger might struggle to do if they tried. I lost count of how many walk-off or game "losing" homers Linebrink and Dotel accounted for.

 

His ERA went from 2.85 to 3.76 during this critical time period when the SOX were dying out there in the bullpen (The DJ Carrasco Wilderness, I like to think of it as).

He had 21 holds so he obviously pitched well during some close games. His August and September weren't ideal, but it does lend credence to the theory that he had not pitched very much the past several years and he may have been gassed. I think if they trade Jenks, he has to be the top candidate within to close. Linebrink is much better a set up guy, Thornton a definite wild card who had to request to sit down late in the season a couple of times because he was tired. I don't think that Jenks will ultimately be traded, but if he is, KW has had his eye on Juan Cruz forever. He could step into Dotel's role with OD getting the ninth. Or maybe KW thinks Cruz could be the guy in the ninth. I think if Jenks goes, he's definitely high on KW's wish list.

Edited November 9, 2008 by Dick Allen

[elrockinMT]

He had 21 holds so he obviously pitched well during some close games. His August and September weren't ideal, but it does lend credence to the theory that he had not pitched very much the past several years and he may have been gassed. I think if they trade Jenks, he has to be the top candidate within to close. Linebrink is much better a set up guy, Thornton a definite wild card who had to request to sit down late in the season a couple of times because he was tired. I don't think that Jenks will ultimately be traded, but if he is, KW has had his eye on Juan Cruz forever. He could step into Dotel's role with OD getting the ninth. Or maybe KW thinks Cruz could be the guy in the ninth. I think if Jenks goes, he's definitely high on KW's wish list.

 

 

In my opinion you have to KNOW someone can take over the role of the closer, or any critical role you are going to fill when you trade someone who has shown they are an ace closer. Bobby Jenks has shown he can do it and I still wonder if there wasn't something physically (or mentally) holding him back even though he was very successful. I continue to point out his fastball speed getting back up to 95 to 97 or so and that curve breaking like it did towards the last month or so. You don't give up someone like Jenks for maybe's and expect to win titles

[Dick Allen]

In my opinion you have to KNOW someone can take over the role of the closer, or any critical role you are going to fill when you trade someone who has shown they are an ace closer. Bobby Jenks has shown he can do it and I still wonder if there wasn't something physically (or mentally) holding him back even though he was very successful. I continue to point out his fastball speed getting back up to 95 to 97 or so and that curve breaking like it did towards the last month or so. You don't give up someone like Jenks for maybe's and expect to win titles

Jenks was as huge of "maybe" as there could be when he assumed the closer's role. The result was spectacular. I doubt KW would trade Jenks if he didn't have worries about a performance drop off, but signs are there. He isn't in very good shape. Spent some time on the DL and his strikeout rate is diminishing. He also is arb eligible. It could be time to unload him if there is a nice return.

Edited November 9, 2008 by Dick Allen

[beck72]

In my opinion you have to KNOW someone can take over the role of the closer, or any critical role you are going to fill when you trade someone who has shown they are an ace closer. Bobby Jenks has shown he can do it and I still wonder if there wasn't something physically (or mentally) holding him back even though he was very successful. I continue to point out his fastball speed getting back up to 95 to 97 or so and that curve breaking like it did towards the last month or so. You don't give up someone like Jenks for maybe's and expect to win titles

If the sox are thinking of trading Jenks, they must believe Poreda could be just as dominant as Bobby. Poreda's emergence as a stud [with the reports in the AFL] has come as the talk of Jenks being possibly on the block.

 

I would find it hard to trade Jenks. But I could see why a deal could come together and make sense.

[ILMOU]

We should have traded Bobby at the same time we should have traded MB.....but we didn't trade either of them. So yes, although it's a year or two too late, I'm in favor of trading Jenks. He'll command more than he's actually worth and his return can be used to fill atleast one of our holes with a stud everyday player.

 

This is crazy talk, sorry. MB has another 10-12 quality seasons in him, either with the Sox or somebody else. Jenks' value is NOT in decline.

 

[ILMOU]

If the sox are thinking of trading Jenks, they must believe Poreda could be just as dominant as Bobby. Poreda's emergence as a stud [with the reports in the AFL] has come as the talk of Jenks being possibly on the block.

 

This would have to be their thinking if they trade Bobby, I would presume. I think they know that Thortnton, Linebrink and Dotel would not be as effective in that role.

 

Thornton, in particular, needs to be in lower pressure situations to really succeed.

[Chisoxfn]

I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Sox had a plan of turning Poreda into the closer by the all star break while they utilized the matchups of Thornton/Dotel prior to (plus pick up another reliever, maybe a Juan Cruz). Plus, given the cost of closers (financially speaking), you might be better off having a young closer who will be cheap for years who you can than spin off when they get closer to getting paid big bucks. Poreda projects to be a potential elite reliever (given his stuff) but the question is obviously whether they believe he'll be able to develop enough secondary stuff to be a potential front line starter.

[knightni]

Closers have a short lifespan in MLB.

 

The average career of a successful closer is maybe 4 or 5 seasons.

 

Many of them have their arms give out.

 

 

[sircaffey]

This is crazy talk, sorry. MB has another 10-12 quality seasons in him, either with the Sox or somebody else. Jenks' value is NOT in decline.

 

Jenks' value IS in decline. His contract is going up exponentially. In a couple years, he could be making 8 figures. Strike while the iron is hot.

[ILMOU]

Jenks' value IS in decline. His contract is going up exponentially. In a couple years, he could be making 8 figures. Strike while the iron is hot.

 

I have to disagree. Bobby's built like Billy Wagner more than F. Rodriguez. His career as a closer will be long. He deserves high-seven figures, and he'll still be a hugely valuable commodity. He has a bit more value while being underpaid, I'll give you that. But this really depends on the team - I don't think $ is a huge issue for the Mets.

 

I'm not saying don't trade him - just get A LOT.

[Kyyle23]

I have to disagree. Bobby's built like Billy Wagner more than F. Rodriguez. His career as a closer will be long. He deserves high-seven figures, and he'll still be a hugely valuable commodity. He has a bit more value while being underpaid, I'll give you that. But this really depends on the team - I don't think $ is a huge issue for the Mets.

 

I'm not saying don't trade him - just get A LOT.

 

I love Bobby as much as any of his fans, but he already has screws in his elbow, and he has missed time in both of the last couple years due to various injuries with his back.

 

That and Billy Wagner had reconstructive surgery this offseason

[scenario]

I've seen some good arguments in this thread...

 

But I'm still of the opinion that we should keep him.

 

I have a hard time understanding how teams get better by trading away their best pitchers.

 

If we're writing off 2009 maybe... but not if we want to compete next year.

 

[Dick Allen]

I've seen some good arguments in this thread...

 

But I'm still of the opinion that we should keep him.

 

I have a hard time understanding how teams get better by trading away their best pitchers.

 

If we're writing off 2009 maybe... but not if we want to compete next year.

Then you would have been against trading Marte after 2003. You would have been against trading Shingo in 2004. Obviously, no one here is saying give him away. If you can get a lot for him, it should be considered for a guy with all his red flags who pitches 65 innings a year. If 2 years from now he gets eight figures, $10,000,000 for 65 innings is over $150k/per inning.

Edited November 9, 2008 by Dick Allen

[greg775]

You can never tell in baseball. That's why you trust the execs who see these guys everyday to decide who should be with the team and who should be traded.

Who would have ever thought the Phils' closer this year would not have ANY blown saves?

I'm sure his value was awful at one point.

You can't trade everybody or you'll always be rebuilding.

If KW trades Bobby he better truly believe he has an answer currently on his staff.

Maybe he's convinced he has somebody. I'll be shocked if he thinks that person is Dotel.

[scenario]

Then you would have been against trading Marte after 2003. You would have been against trading Shingo in 2004. Obviously, no one here is saying give him away. If you can get a lot for him, it should be considered for a guy with all his red flags who pitches 65 innings a year. If 2 years from now he gets eight figures, $10,000,000 for 65 innings is over $150k/per inning.

 

Please....

 

Shingo had one year wonder written all over him.

 

And, with the advantage of hindsight, trading Marte may have been a smart thing...

 

But you can't make decisions on players we have today (like Jenks) using a rear view mirror and cherry-picking comparisons of guys who didn't repeat success.

 

You can't trade everybody or you'll always be rebuilding.

If KW trades Bobby he better truly believe he has an answer currently on his staff.

 

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 

My feelings exactly... especially when you're talking about pitching.

 

Edited November 9, 2008 by scenario