Mets & White Sox Have Been Talking...

[rangercal]

Here's the list of about 30 guys who had 15 or more saves last year, in order of # of saves. I think when you look at the names, you probably put Bobby right around #10 in quality.

 

Francisco Rodriguez

Jose Valverde

Joakim Soria

Brad Lidge

Jonathan Papelbon

Brian Wilson

Mariano Rivera

Joe Nathan

Kerry Wood

Francisco Cordero

B.J. Ryan

George Sherrill

Trevor Hoffman

Brian Fuentes

Bobby Jenks

Kevin Gregg

Salomon Torres

Troy Percival

Billy Wagner

Brandon Lyon

C.J. Wilson

Matt Capps

Todd Jones

Jon Rauch

Huston Street

Takashi Saito

Ryan Franklin

J.J. Putz

ok, fair enough. That's still not a small group. To make my argument, How much of a dropoff would there be between Bobby and guy # 20? I'm guessing nothing drastic.

[Balta1701]

ok, fair enough. That's still not a small group. To make my argument, How much of a dropoff would there be between Bobby and guy # 20? I'm guessing nothing drastic.

To me, looking at that list, you wind up dropping from Jenks to guys like Kevin Gregg, Troy Percival, Billy Wagner, Todd Jones, Huston Street, Takashi Saito, etc.

 

The key point being that once you get past guys around, I dunno, #12 or so, you suddenly start running in to guys with much bigger issues. Significantly higher ERA's, guys who are hurt for 1/2 of the season and who you wind up really needing a backup closer for, guys you just don't trust when they get the ball, guys in danger of losing their closing job, etc.

[rangercal]

To me, looking at that list, you wind up dropping from Jenks to guys like Kevin Gregg, Troy Percival, Billy Wagner, Todd Jones, Huston Street, Takashi Saito, etc.

 

The key point being that once you get past guys around, I dunno, #12 or so, you suddenly start running in to guys with much bigger issues. Significantly higher ERA's, guys who are hurt for 1/2 of the season and who you wind up really needing a backup closer for, guys you just don't trust when they get the ball, guys in danger of losing their closing job, etc.

 

That's just it. Closers come and go all the time. I'm willing to sell high on Bobby now if we get someone to overpay for him. I don't think it will be too long before Bobby is in that group you speak of.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Is there something wrong with 20 year olds who are oozing with talent and ready to jump to AAA next season?

 

 

Well for one, I have reason to believe he is not actually 20. He's also been somewhat injury prone early in his career. And for someone with his raw ability, he hasnt overwhelmed in the minors yet.

 

There's just something I'm not sold on with him like I was two years ago.

Edited November 10, 2008 by ChiSox_Sonix

[witesoxfan]

Well for one, I have reason to believe he is not actually 20. He's also been somewhat injury prone early in his career. And for someone with his raw ability, he hasnt overwhelmed in the minors yet.

 

There's just something I'm not sold on with him like I was two years ago.

 

as a 19 year old, playing with guys that are 22 and 23 and above, he put up .287/.340/.432/.772. Expecting much more out of him is a bit crazy, seeing as how the Mets could have let him play in high-A and he would have likely destroyed the competition.

 

For a player with his talent, I'd have no problem giving up quite a bit.

 

Of course, if he's not actually 20, and that's much harder to pull off now a days, it's an entirely different story, but until it's proven, I'll believe he's 20.

[ILMOU]

Not sure what any of that has to do with anything.

 

(1) The Sox have one of the highest payrolls in baseball and are profitable. But some fans continue to think we should act like a small market team. Whatever.

 

(2) Regarding Jenks' K-rate... his big K year was also his worst season. The last two years he's had both a declining K-rate and a declining ERA. Call me crazy but I prefer a lower ERA.

 

(3) Jenks is a big boy.... true. And you're worried this will limit his longevity. Give me a break... he's 27 years old. Frankly I'm not worried about 5 years from now. I'm worried about 2009.

 

(4) What in the world would calling Theo and offering to trade Jenks for Papelbon prove? You could have the same conversation with Theo about Nathan, K-Rod, or Mariano Rivera and the answer would still be no.

 

Bottom line: There is a small group of elite closers in baseball. Jenks is in that group. If we get rid of him, we won't have one anymore. I fail to see how it would make our team better next year.

 

I'm with Scenario on this one. The Sox better be damn sure that Poreda is ready to close in APRIL if they trade BBB. You can't win a division in June, but you can sure as heck be out of it at that time if you can't close for three months while waiting for someone to develop.

 

It's a huge gamble with the 2009 season (which could be a great one) if no one is able to immediately assume the closer's role.

[ILMOU]

ok, fair enough. That's still not a small group. To make my argument, How much of a dropoff would there be between Bobby and guy # 20? I'm guessing nothing drastic.

 

All but about 5 of these guys have more fleas, less consistency than BBB. He is an elite closer. The AL just happens to have a fair number of them.

[scenario]

The Sox better be damn sure that Poreda is ready to close in APRIL if they trade BBB. You can't win a division in June, but you can sure as heck be out of it at that time if you can't close for three months while waiting for someone to develop.

 

It's a huge gamble with the 2009 season (which could be a great one) if no one is able to immediately assume the closer's role.

 

 

Amen to that.

 

Just ask Cleveland and Detroit.

 

 

[scenario]

ok, fair enough. That's still not a small group. To make my argument, How much of a dropoff would there be between Bobby and guy # 20? I'm guessing nothing drastic.

 

 

I think you've identified a key issue.

 

If somebody thinks there are 20 closers as good as Bobby in the AL then, by all means, it makes sense to trade him if we could get alot for him. Who wouldn't trade a 'league average' closer if they could get very good players in return?

 

But... I look at that group of players and IMO the comparable list is ALOT smaller... like 10.

 

And I doubt that many (if any) of those guys are available.

 

Because if teams want to compete, they need a good closer. Competing teams don't look to trade their closers. Rebuilding teams do.

Edited November 10, 2008 by scenario

[rangercal]

I think you've identified a key issue.

 

If somebody thinks there are 20 closers as good as Bobby in the AL then, by all means, it makes sense to trade him if we could get alot for him. Who wouldn't trade a 'league average' closer if they could get very good players in return?

 

But... I look at that group of players and IMO the comparable list is ALOT smaller... like 10.

 

And I doubt that many (if any) of those guys are available.

Because if teams want to compete, they need a good closer. Competing teams don't look to trade their closers. Rebuilding teams do.

I agree with that. I'm just anticipating Bobby to hit a wall pretty soon, like most closers do after a few years. The past injury history worries me. One argument to keep him would be his transformation from thrower to pitcher.

[RockRaines]

ON that list above, I would probably rank Bobby somewhere 5th or 6th.

 

I would call these guys elite (no order):

 

Soria

Rivera

K-Rod

Nathan

Papelboner

Jenks

Lidge (on and off)

Edited November 10, 2008 by RockRaines

[sircaffey]

I'd make a call to the Pirates about Capps. I think he's about ready to take a step up the closer rung.

[joeynach]

I'd make a call to the Pirates about Capps. I think he's about ready to take a step up the closer rung.

 

The pirates would be willing to trade Capps, but only if he does or is on the verge of making real money. If hes cheap no matter good or bad the pirates will keep him.

[bigruss]

What about Sherrill from the O's?

[Kalapse]

What about Sherrill from the O's?

32 years old, not all that good and the Orioles will be looking for Closer value in return for a guy who probably shouldn't be closing.

[bigruss]

32 years old, not all that good and the Orioles will be looking for Closer value in return for a guy who probably shouldn't be closing.

Fair enough, I didnt realize he was that old, guess I shouldve looked that up first.

[Kalapse]

Fair enough, I didnt realize he was that old, guess I shouldve looked that up first.

Eh, it's a common misconception. Sherrill first came into the National spotlight 2 years ago at the age of 30 when he had a huge year setting up Putz in Seattle, since no one had ever really heard of the guy before and he had only played 1 previous full season in the majors everyone just assumed he was in his mid 20's. The only way you'd know the guy was on the wrong side of 30 is if you actively seeked out his age which there really is no reason to do.

[easyw]

Trading Jenks is a great idea... for all the reasons that have already been mentioned.

 

I'd love to see another World Series for the Sox in 2010 or 2011, and that ain't gonna happen with the likes of Jenks and Dye on the roster...

 

SELL HIGH!

[caulfield12]

Trading Jenks is a great idea... for all the reasons that have already been mentioned.

 

I'd love to see another World Series for the Sox in 2010 or 2011, and that ain't gonna happen with the likes of Jenks and Dye on the roster...

 

SELL HIGH!

 

Not sure I understand this line of reasoning. Weren't Jenks and Dye two of the biggest reasons we succeeded in 05 and 08?

 

I mean...it's great if you can get guaranteed major league ready players/prospects for your veterans, but we've been on the wrong and right side (Todd Ritchie and Freddy Garcia) of such deals when 2-3 players either flame out or you end up cutting into your depth and the one player you acquire is either injured or non-productive (like Nick Swisher).

 

We're usually in a veteran dumping mode in seasons like White Flag, 2001/2002/2004/2007...it is very rarely that we have traded star players in their prime under KW. Carlos Lee is one of the few examples...we know all about that deal and the various arguments/rationales behind it. Usually, we've let players go via free agency or made "small" moves for negligible payoffs at mid-season.

Edited November 11, 2008 by caulfield12

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Here's the list of about 30 guys who had 15 or more saves last year, in order of # of saves. I think when you look at the names, you probably put Bobby right around #10 in quality.

 

Francisco Rodriguez

Jose Valverde

Joakim Soria

Brad Lidge

Jonathan Papelbon

Brian Wilson

Mariano Rivera

Joe Nathan

Kerry Wood

Francisco Cordero

B.J. Ryan

George Sherrill

Trevor Hoffman

Brian Fuentes

Bobby Jenks

Kevin Gregg

Salomon Torres

Troy Percival

Billy Wagner

Brandon Lyon

C.J. Wilson

Matt Capps

Todd Jones

Jon Rauch

Huston Street

Takashi Saito

Ryan Franklin

J.J. Putz

If salary and contract length were no object, I would trade Bobby straight up for K-Rod, Papelbon, and Nathan. Soria may have more value because of his contract, Mariano may be nails but his age will catch up to him, and Lidge may seem more dominant when he is on - although IMO that is the typical "grass is greener" mentality because Bobby's FB + curve combo is just as deadly as Lidge's FB + slider combo - but there are only three guys that I would definitely take over Bobby for a full season. That said, I'd still trade him for the right package.

Edited November 11, 2008 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Not sure I understand this line of reasoning. Weren't Jenks and Dye two of the biggest reasons we succeeded in 05 and 08?

 

I mean...it's great if you can get guaranteed major league ready players/prospects for your veterans, but we've been on the wrong and right side (Todd Ritchie and Freddy Garcia) of such deals when 2-3 players either flame out or you end up cutting into your depth and the one player you acquire is either injured or non-productive (like Nick Swisher).

 

We're usually in a veteran dumping mode in seasons like White Flag, 2001/2002/2004/2007...it is very rarely that we have traded star players in their prime under KW. Carlos Lee is one of the few examples...we know all about that deal and the various arguments/rationales behind it. Usually, we've let players go via free agency or made "small" moves for negligible payoffs at mid-season.

As usual you make some good points. One thing that I would about the Sox and Kenny's current situation is that IMO he can afford to deal both Javy and Jenks in a market starved for good, reasonably-priced pitching as well as two sluggers in a market starved for good, reasonably-priced hitting.

 

The wrong move here IMO is trading just one player and expecting it all to work out just fine. Notice how after '06 Kenny dealt 2 SP for 5 pitching prospects. Danks and Floyd worked out, Gio and Masset were used in other deals, and Rasner is slowly but surely developing in the minors, although he's going to need to hurry up and develop if he wants to stay out of the Rule-5 draft. So in that deal we've gotten value out of 4 of the 5 players acquired so far with two of them mainstays.

 

The right move, to me, is trading at least three, preferrably 4, of those tradeable commodities. All we need to think about right now is Danks and Floyd. If Jenks, Vazquez, Dye/Thome/Konerko/Swisher were on another team, would anyone seriously consider giving up one of Danks of Floyd for that kind of player? If we can make 4 deals, and come away with 8-12 prospects, then we only need three of those to join the big league club at some point. If we concentrate on pitching and can come away with a couple #2/#3 starters and either an everyday position player or a dominant reliever, we've already IMO added value to the organization. Kenny does trade his prospects, so also consider that some of what we would acquire in such a scenario would end up landing us other veterans, preferrably younger ones who better fit into the equation. Prospects are the easiest things to deal in this game because you can trade prospects with 25 teams (omitting divisional rivals) instead of only 5-6 depending on need, league, salary requirements, contract length, payroll, and ownership issues.

 

Above all, this team needs to completely revamp its minor league organization as well as continue towards a new, younger core. We can't contend for the next 10 years without doing that. People always get worked up about trading for prospects, but I think it is important to understand 1) the conditions of the starting pitching market right now where the difference between a veteran who provides 200IP with a 4.50 ERA and a prospect who provides 170-180IP with a 4.80 ERA can be as much as $15 million per season, 2) that the age of our old core forces transition, 3) the impact our new core has had on our team, and 4) the importance of the Sox baseball version of the 2010 plan. We don't need to pay Javy to be a #4 when we can target a couple young #2/#3's who have a downside of a #4 at $22M less over the next two seasons; we absolutely have to get younger with our sluggers and doing it now for value instead of letting them walk could benefit tremendously; we can afford to lose dynamite in the lineup due to the emergence of Quentin and Ramirez; and finally, why not potentially add a few more pieces to the 2010 crop of talent that, if we hang on to it, could include Beckham, Danks, Poreda, Shelby, and Allen? Every one of those players, if they stay healthy, should end '09 in Double A or Triple A.

Edited November 11, 2008 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[caulfield12]

As usual you make some good points. One thing that I would about the Sox and Kenny's current situation is that IMO he can afford to deal both Javy and Jenks in a market starved for good, reasonably-priced pitching as well as two sluggers in a market starved for good, reasonably-priced hitting.

 

The wrong move here IMO is trading just one player and expecting it all to work out just fine. Notice how after '06 Kenny dealt 2 SP for 5 pitching prospects. Danks and Floyd worked out, Gio and Masset were used in other deals, and Rasner is slowly but surely developing in the minors, although he's going to need to hurry up and develop if he wants to stay out of the Rule-5 draft. So in that deal we've gotten value out of 4 of the 5 players acquired so far with two of them mainstays.

 

The right move, to me, is trading at least three, preferrably 4, of those tradeable commodities. All we need to think about right now is Danks and Floyd. If Jenks, Vazquez, Dye/Thome/Konerko/Swisher were on another team, would anyone seriously consider giving up one of Danks of Floyd for that kind of player? If we can make 4 deals, and come away with 8-12 prospects, then we only need three of those to join the big league club at some point. If we concentrate on pitching and can come away with a couple #2/#3 starters and either an everyday position player or a dominant reliever, we've already IMO added value to the organization. Kenny does trade his prospects, so also consider that some of what we would acquire in such a scenario would end up landing us other veterans, preferrably younger ones who better fit into the equation. Prospects are the easiest things to deal in this game because you can trade prospects with 25 teams (omitting divisional rivals) instead of only 5-6 depending on need, league, salary requirements, contract length, payroll, and ownership issues.

 

Above all, this team needs to completely revamp its minor league organization as well as continue towards a new, younger core. We can't contend for the next 10 years without doing that. People always get worked up about trading for prospects, but I think it is important to understand 1) the conditions of the starting pitching market right now where the difference between a veteran who provides 200IP with a 4.50 ERA and a prospect who provides 170-180IP with a 4.80 ERA can be as much as $15 million per season, 2) that the age of our old core forces transition, 3) the impact our new core has had on our team, and 4) the importance of the Sox baseball version of the 2010 plan. We don't need to pay Javy to be a #4 when we can target a couple young #2/#3's who have a downside of a #4 at $22M less over the next two seasons; we absolutely have to get younger with our sluggers and doing it now for value instead of letting them walk could benefit tremendously; we can afford to lose dynamite in the lineup due to the emergence of Quentin and Ramirez; and finally, why not potentially add a few more pieces to the 2010 crop of talent that, if we hang on to it, could include Beckham, Danks, Poreda, Shelby, and Allen? Every one of those players, if they stay healthy, should end '09 in Double A or Triple A.

 

Not much new to add. I guess KW has to be thinking, which one of the five younger players is most likely to regress....Quentin, Danks, Floyd, Ramirez and Jenks? I would include Thornton and Buehrle with these first five...those are our 7 most valuable properties.

 

Then you have Konerko/Dye/Swisher.

 

The arguments back and forth about Jenks have been interesting, to say the least. I almost might put Thornton on the market if I'm convinced I can get a similar performance out of Poreda, and trading Thornton coming off a strong season when he looked like one of the best lefty relievers in the game.

 

The question is how much can we get for Jenks, and how confident is KW in 1) finding a replacement via trade or FA for Jenks (ala Juan Cruz or Jeremy Affeldt types) and 2) how confident he is that Dotel/Poreda/Linebrink/Russell could get the job done without Jenks at the back of the pen?

 

Still, when it comes down to, it doesn't seem NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE to get Vazquez's .500 record and 30+ starts out of a pool of 3-5 pitching prospects who would be competing for 1-2 spots in the rotation (in addition to Richard, this scenario is with Poreda replacing Thornton)...then you have the wild card of a Contreras comeback, the possibility he could even be tried as a closer. Or bringing back El Duque, lol. Just kidding...well, sort of. Or Denys (not Baez) Reyes.

 

Then you also have around $23-25 million or whatever with Vazquez's deal off the books to invest in places of need like 3B (Blake, Kouzmanoff, Atkins, etc.), 2B and CF. Maybe they do get Taveras and somehow pull off the deal for Roberts OR sign Orlando Hudson by saving money/prospects by picking up Taveras for a Broadway type of prospect.

 

Then you can devote the prospects you get back for Vazquez, Jenks/Thornton and Swisher/Konerko/Dye to what you are proposing...rebuilding that foundation and depth of quality pitching that we've lost since 2005.

 

I can't imagine what would have happened had we tried to hold onto Garcia, McCarthy and Garland...KW seems to have the right feel for who to deal and when and is on something of a roll, almost impossible for it to continue with everything breaking right with the Big 4 (CQ, Alexei, Floyd, Danks).

Edited November 11, 2008 by caulfield12

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Not much new to add. I guess KW has to be thinking, which one of the five younger players is most likely to regress....Quentin, Danks, Floyd, Ramirez and Jenks? I would include Thornton and Buehrle with these first five...those are our 7 most valuable properties.

 

Then you have Konerko/Dye/Swisher.

 

The arguments back and forth about Jenks have been interesting, to say the least. I almost might put Thornton on the market if I'm convinced I can get a similar performance out of Poreda, and trading Thornton coming off a strong season when he looked like one of the best lefty relievers in the game.

 

The question is how much can we get for Jenks, and how confident is KW in 1) finding a replacement via trade or FA for Jenks (ala Juan Cruz or Jeremy Affeldt types) and 2) how confident he is that Dotel/Poreda/Linebrink/Russell could get the job done without Jenks at the back of the pen?

 

Still, when it comes down to, it doesn't seem NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE to get Vazquez's .500 record and 30+ starts out of a pool of 3-5 pitching prospects who would be competing for 1-2 spots in the rotation (in addition to Richard, this scenario is with Poreda replacing Thornton)...then you have the wild card of a Contreras comeback, the possibility he could even be tried as a closer. Or bringing back El Duque, lol. Just kidding...well, sort of. Or Denys (not Baez) Reyes.

 

Then you also have around $23-25 million or whatever with Vazquez's deal off the books to invest in places of need like 3B (Blake, Kouzmanoff, Atkins, etc.), 2B and CF. Maybe they do get Taveras and somehow pull off the deal for Roberts OR sign Orlando Hudson by saving money/prospects by picking up Taveras for a Broadway type of prospect.

 

Then you can devote the prospects you get back for Vazquez, Jenks/Thornton and Swisher/Konerko/Dye to what you are proposing...rebuilding that foundation and depth of quality pitching that we've lost since 2005.

 

I can't imagine what would have happened had we tried to hold onto Garcia, McCarthy and Garland...KW seems to have the right feel for who to deal and when and is on something of a roll, almost impossible for it to continue with everything breaking right with the Big 4 (CQ, Alexei, Floyd, Danks).

I'm with you on all this except the part about Russell getting consideration to close and Thornton. Russell has the stuff, but his command issues would bring back memories of Koch IMO. He's not an uber-talented prospect like Jenks was and even Jenks was only thrust into that role right away out of necessity. Thornton, meanwhile, I'd have to be given an almost video game-like package to trade. I'm talking like major superstar. Thornton's contract is amazingly cheap and we control him through 2011 I believe. It's something crazy like $6.5M total over that span, I looked it up before. I don't even think you can get two years of Denys Reyes that cheap. I really think Thornton could do just as good of a job as Sherrill and the motivation for dealing Jenks would be getting a lot of value, saving a lot of money, and controlling a player just as long if not longer.

 

When you mention Kenny trading Garcia, McCarthy, and Garland you bring up a great point. Personally, for the longest time I didn't have any faith in the Sox as far as drafting talent that could break in and excel with the Sox or signing talent internationally that could do the same. However, I have tons of faith in Kenny and his staff to scout major league or major league-ready talent out of other organizations. His only big blunder since the early years and the Richie deal was Swisher, but Swisher is still a talented player who has the ability to be a lot better than he was last year. Kenny and his staff have pretty much been spot-on for a while now concerning major league players, so maybe that is part of the reason why I want to see some prospects who are close to being ready come in. I think if he puts the right people to work we will end up with a couple very good players who can be added to our core and help us compete for a long time to come, and we'll also end up adding a couple more veteran pieces via trade from the crop of prospects we'd get back.

Edited November 11, 2008 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[caulfield12]

You can't fault KW for many of his decisions over the last two seasons or so.

 

Keeping Dye and Buehrle.

 

Some mistakes (in hindsight) could be signing Contreras to such a long-term deal, and Konerko, but, at the time those deals were made, a large majority were for Paulie and we all thought Jose should be "rewarded," maybe not with that 2009 year though...

 

Other than that, the only arguable trade (still going on) is Vazquez/Chris B. Young.

 

Of course, if Danks disappears like Cliff Lee did for a season or two and McCarthy wins the Cy Young (odds on that happening, about as high as Sarah Palin being named Secretary of Interior or Energy by the new administration), we'll have some more recriminations.

 

Other than Carter/Cunningham and Frank Francisco, I can't think of any prospects we've lost that I would simply LOVE to have back and miss.

 

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Yep, and even the arguable one (Vaz for Young) is still even at worst IMO, just because Javy and his contract now is worth just as much, if not more, than he was when we traded for him. Javy, in this climate, is still worth another prospect as talented as Chris Young along with a couple smaller pieces, although the inclusion of El Duque and Vizcaino IMO was more about salary relief for the Sox.