Mets & White Sox Have Been Talking...

[Dick Allen]

Please....

 

Shingo had one year wonder written all over him.

 

And, with the advantage of hindsight, trading Marte may have been a smart thing...

 

But you can't make decisions on players we have today (like Jenks) using a rear view mirror and cherry-picking comparisons of guys who didn't repeat success.

But you can't just say Jenks will be one of the best pitchers on the team in 2009 either. A lot of things can happen. My point is you have to get a lot for Jenks, but while supposedly as you say, Shingo had one year wonder written all over him, there are signs that Jenks production may start to tale off. He went on the DL last year. The buttons on his jersey look like they are ready to pop. His k rate dropped again. Don't give him away, but if you can add some quality pieces, this offseason may be a great time to move him.

[sircaffey]

I have to disagree. Bobby's built like Billy Wagner more than F. Rodriguez. His career as a closer will be long. He deserves high-seven figures, and he'll still be a hugely valuable commodity. He has a bit more value while being underpaid, I'll give you that. But this really depends on the team - I don't think $ is a huge issue for the Mets.

 

I'm not saying don't trade him - just get A LOT.

 

Whatever he deserves is not the main issue. What he will get will drop a lot of teams out of the running for Bobby. Only a few would be willing to take on a 8 figure reliever. Demand is dropping. Trade him now while many teams are interested.

[Wanne]

Then you would have been against trading Marte after 2003. You would have been against trading Shingo in 2004. Obviously, no one here is saying give him away. If you can get a lot for him, it should be considered for a guy with all his red flags who pitches 65 innings a year. If 2 years from now he gets eight figures, $10,000,000 for 65 innings is over $150k/per inning.

 

I know it's hingsight...but could you imagine what we would have gotten for Crede after the WS?.....

[EvilMonkey]

I would trade him if the deal was right. I don't know what deal WOULD be right, but for a good enough package, he gawn!

[iamshack]

Then you would have been against trading Marte after 2003. You would have been against trading Shingo in 2004. Obviously, no one here is saying give him away. If you can get a lot for him, it should be considered for a guy with all his red flags who pitches 65 innings a year. If 2 years from now he gets eight figures, $10,000,000 for 65 innings is over $150k/per inning.

 

Didn't we trade Marte for reasons that were not related to his performance on the field, to be more specific, he showed up late a few times and Ozzie did not get along with him? We didn't exactly get much for him in Rob Mackowiak....

 

And Shingo...well, as much as I didn't expect him to so quickly become terrible, he was incapable of throwing a fastball in the high eighties and his success was solely based on one pitch. It certainly wasn't unforseeable that he would become ineffective once hitters learned to look at the pitch. Of course, he did seem to forget rather suddenly how to get any other pitch in the zone...

 

The point is that Shingo and Marte are not particularly analogous to the Jenks situation and thus not really good examples. That being said, it's clear that Kenny understands the trends that occur around him in the industry and is quite capable of understanding what happens when closers start reaching the stratosphere in terms of salary. Not that any of us know for certain, but I would guess that Kenny falls squarely in the camp that high 7 figures is too much to pay for a guy that pitches 60 innings a season.

 

I wouldn't be shocked at all if Bobby was dealt, but think it would have to be in a package for a player Kenny has really, really been fond of for a long time...

[caulfield12]

Marte pitched his way out of Chicago the final months of 2005. Ozzie simply lost confidence in him, and the situation that El Duque had to bail him out of in BOS with the bases loaded and no outs was the final straw.

 

Mackowiak was never meant to be a starting CFer, fwiw. The day the trade was made, I was pretty ecstatic that we managed to get THAT much for Marte...who is/was analagous to Thornton.

 

The main difference is that Thornton throws about 3-4 MPH harder and has that easy, repeatable motion scouts fall in love with. Marte had a better second pitch, that slinging "slurve/offspeed" pitch could be very effective at times.

 

That said, Thornton would be worth twice as much to any other team. Some would definitely consider him as a closer...you couldn't say the same thing for Marte at then end of 2005. He's actually rebounded much more effectively than I thought, based on where he was at the end of our World Series season. I thought he was pitching his way out of the majors the way things were going. And the Marte/Guerrier original trade was one of KW's best, "signature" moves in the early part of his career. Ironic that Guerrier went on to become a very effective set-up guy for our main rivals but didn't impact the Pirates much at all...similar to Josh Rupe, Aaron Myette or Kevin Beirne in that sense.

Edited November 10, 2008 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

Didn't we trade Marte for reasons that were not related to his performance on the field, to be more specific, he showed up late a few times and Ozzie did not get along with him? We didn't exactly get much for him in Rob Mackowiak....

 

And Shingo...well, as much as I didn't expect him to so quickly become terrible, he was incapable of throwing a fastball in the high eighties and his success was solely based on one pitch. It certainly wasn't unforseeable that he would become ineffective once hitters learned to look at the pitch. Of course, he did seem to forget rather suddenly how to get any other pitch in the zone...

 

The point is that Shingo and Marte are not particularly analogous to the Jenks situation and thus not really good examples. That being said, it's clear that Kenny understands the trends that occur around him in the industry and is quite capable of understanding what happens when closers start reaching the stratosphere in terms of salary. Not that any of us know for certain, but I would guess that Kenny falls squarely in the camp that high 7 figures is too much to pay for a guy that pitches 60 innings a season.

 

I wouldn't be shocked at all if Bobby was dealt, but think it would have to be in a package for a player Kenny has really, really been fond of for a long time...

I was talking about trading Marte after the 2003 season. He hadn't played for Ozzie yet and was probably the best left handed set-up man in baseball. As it turns out, he was a guy who was much more comfortable playing for a quiet Manuel than he was with Ozzie.

After 2003, Marte was one of the best pitchers on the White Sox. After 2004 ended, Shingo was one of the best pitchers on the White Sox. If they were traded then, it turns out it would not have been a mistake, which is the point I was making. Jenks future success is not promised.

 

I don't think KW will trade Jenks, but it wouldn't be a total shock for the reasons I have stated before.

[caulfield12]

I was talking about trading Marte after the 2003 season. He hadn't played for Ozzie yet and was probably the best left handed set-up man in baseball. As it turns out, he was a guy who was much more comfortable playing for a quiet Manuel than he was with Ozzie.

After 2003, Marte was one of the best pitchers on the White Sox. After 2004 ended, Shingo was one of the best pitchers on the White Sox. If they were traded then, it turns out it would not have been a mistake, which is the point I was making. Jenks future success is not promised.

 

I don't think KW will trade Jenks, but it wouldn't be a total shock for the reasons I have stated before.

 

Sure...and we should have traded Cotts and Politte after 2005 as well...and Crede.

 

Marte, at the time, was not only one of the best LH relief pitchers in baseball...he had a great contract. Of course, hindsight being 20/20, it's easy to reach the conclusion that KW should have traded him...or Borchard.

 

Heck, we had so many first round draft picks and pitching prospects go down with injuries...we might have traded the likes of Parque, Barcelo, Danny Wright, Matt Ginter, Jason Stumm, Jon Rauch (who was at one time close to the best pitching prospect in the game), etc.

 

Just think if we had traded both Borchard and Rauch at their peaks?

 

Well, it's impossible to predict the future...just like picking stocks. All we can do is make educated guesses. Apparently, KW's educated guess to hold onto Brian Anderson and dump Aaron Rowand was the wrong one. Not the idea itself, but the player he felt could replace Rowand. Maybe BA will redeem himself, but I doubt it happens in Chicago. We shall see.

[Wanne]

Sure...and we should have traded Cotts and Politte after 2005 as well...and Crede.

 

Marte, at the time, was not only one of the best LH relief pitchers in baseball...he had a great contract. Of course, hindsight being 20/20, it's easy to reach the conclusion that KW should have traded him...or Borchard.

 

Heck, we had so many first round draft picks and pitching prospects go down with injuries...we might have traded the likes of Parque, Barcelo, Danny Wright, Matt Ginter, Jason Stumm, Jon Rauch (who was at one time close to the best pitching prospect in the game), etc.

 

Just think if we had traded both Borchard and Rauch at their peaks?

 

Well, it's impossible to predict the future...just like picking stocks. All we can do is make educated guesses. Apparently, KW's educated guess to hold onto Brian Anderson and dump Aaron Rowand was the wrong one. Not the idea itself, but the player he felt could replace Rowand. Maybe BA will redeem himself, but I doubt it happens in Chicago. We shall see.

 

a. You pretty much made my point a page or two back about the Sox should have traded Crede after the WS and how it relates to trading Bobby right now...as I said hindsight. Depends on the package.

 

As for trading ARow...hard to say that was the wrong choice IMO when you brought in Jim Thome.

[caulfield12]

Not disagreeing with the trade at all. Rowand is not worth the kind of money he's getting now, certainly not in the AL.

 

It was the idea that at the time, we had a ton of depth (Reed, Young, Anderson, Rowand) at that position...we just picked the wrong player to hold onto. I guess if KW didn't ask for money back on the Vazquez/Vizcaino deal, we might have been able to get away with giving them Anderson instead of Chris Young. We'll never know.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

Sure...and we should have traded Cotts and Politte after 2005 as well...and Crede.

 

Marte, at the time, was not only one of the best LH relief pitchers in baseball...he had a great contract. Of course, hindsight being 20/20, it's easy to reach the conclusion that KW should have traded him...or Borchard.

 

Heck, we had so many first round draft picks and pitching prospects go down with injuries...we might have traded the likes of Parque, Barcelo, Danny Wright, Matt Ginter, Jason Stumm, Jon Rauch (who was at one time close to the best pitching prospect in the game), etc.

 

Just think if we had traded both Borchard and Rauch at their peaks?

 

Well, it's impossible to predict the future...just like picking stocks. All we can do is make educated guesses. Apparently, KW's educated guess to hold onto Brian Anderson and dump Aaron Rowand was the wrong one. Not the idea itself, but the player he felt could replace Rowand. Maybe BA will redeem himself, but I doubt it happens in Chicago. We shall see.

You are just making my point that trading Jenks is not that crazy.

[Wanne]

Not disagreeing with the trade at all. Rowand is not worth the kind of money he's getting now, certainly not in the AL.

 

It was the idea that at the time, we had a ton of depth (Reed, Young, Anderson, Rowand) at that position...we just picked the wrong player to hold onto. I guess if KW didn't ask for money back on the Vazquez/Vizcaino deal, we might have been able to get away with giving them Anderson instead of Chris Young. We'll never know.

 

Not only what Dick Allen said...but for the fact that giving the DBacks Anderson would more than likely meant that they wouldn't have given up Q the next year. Can't have your cake and eat it too.... I'm having a hard time understanding what it is you're arguing....

 

The thread...

Trade Jenks. (yes if it's a good return)

Don't trade Jenks. (not if the return sucks)

[caulfield12]

That KW had the right idea with trading Rowand, just the wrong execution in who he ended up holding on to...

[nitetrain8601]

Basically, KW is in Billy Beane's situation when he traded away Billy Koch to us. Billy Koch was Rolaid's Relief Man of the Year I believe when we got him. He was a super hard thrower and such. His value was at it's peak. Now Beane knew about durability issues and traded him right away before any would think twice.

 

Think of it this way, most closers do not last long. Only one I could think maintained the same level of success is Mariano Rivera. I love Bobby as much as the next guy, but I would trade him.

[scenario]

Maybe I'm wrong but I have a hard time imagining that Red Sox fans are sitting around talking about trading Jonathan Papelbon for the good of their ballclub.

 

(Papelbon is a few months older than Jenks, makes a little more money, and has basically the same amount of MLB service time.)

 

 

 

[rangercal]

Maybe I'm wrong but I have a hard time imagining that Red Sox fans are sitting around talking about trading Jonathan Papelbon for the good of their ballclub.

 

(Papelbon is a few months older than Jenks, makes a little more money, and has basically the same amount of MLB service time.)

 

Maybe it's not apples to oranges, It's like comparing red apples to green apples. Not the same. Jenks has had elbow surgery and also has a slightly above average career ERA of 3.09 where Papelbon is at 1.84.

[bigruss]

Maybe I'm wrong but I have a hard time imagining that Red Sox fans are sitting around talking about trading Jonathan Papelbon for the good of their ballclub.

 

(Papelbon is a few months older than Jenks, makes a little more money, and has basically the same amount of MLB service time.)

Does Papelbon have a screw in his arm?

 

Plus the Red Sox can take a hit financially with bad contracts compared to us.

[Dick Allen]

Maybe I'm wrong but I have a hard time imagining that Red Sox fans are sitting around talking about trading Jonathan Papelbon for the good of their ballclub.

 

(Papelbon is a few months older than Jenks, makes a little more money, and has basically the same amount of MLB service time.)

The Red Sox have a different payroll level. Paplebon's K rate hasn't been nosediving. He doesn't weigh 300 pounds. There's reason to believe he will have a longer career than Jenks.

 

If you were the White Sox GM and Theo called and offered Papelbon for Jenks straight up, would you do it or hang up the phone?

 

The big reason for me in considering trading Jenks is money. If he continues to perform as he's been, 2009 will still be cheap, 2010 will still be OK. 2011 will be a lot of money and I don't know what kind of package you could get for the current Bobby Jenks making 8 figures, one season from free agency. Looking at it, his trade value may never be higher than it is right now. If teams don't want to give you a package where you get what you're looking for, then I don't think there has been one post to get rid of him anyway. If you could get what you want, I see nothing wrong with it.

Edited November 10, 2008 by Dick Allen

[ChiSox_Sonix]

I believe that they have a stud CF in their organization who is 19 or 20 and played very well in AA last season. He would have to be the centerpiece of any deal involving Jenks.

 

 

Just say no to Fernando Martinez!

[scenario]

The Red Sox have a different payroll level. Paplebon's K rate hasn't been nosediving. He doesn't weigh 300 pounds. There's reason to believe he will have a longer career than Jenks.

 

If you were the White Sox GM and Theo called and offered Papelbon for Jenks straight up, would you do it or hang up the phone?

 

Not sure what any of that has to do with anything.

 

(1) The Sox have one of the highest payrolls in baseball and are profitable. But some fans continue to think we should act like a small market team. Whatever.

 

(2) Regarding Jenks' K-rate... his big K year was also his worst season. The last two years he's had both a declining K-rate and a declining ERA. Call me crazy but I prefer a lower ERA.

 

(3) Jenks is a big boy.... true. And you're worried this will limit his longevity. Give me a break... he's 27 years old. Frankly I'm not worried about 5 years from now. I'm worried about 2009.

 

(4) What in the world would calling Theo and offering to trade Jenks for Papelbon prove? You could have the same conversation with Theo about Nathan, K-Rod, or Mariano Rivera and the answer would still be no.

 

Bottom line: There is a small group of elite closers in baseball. Jenks is in that group. If we get rid of him, we won't have one anymore. I fail to see how it would make our team better next year.

 

 

 

[RockRaines]

You only trade Jenks if you get younger elite talent in return. Trading him for an older middle of the order player is simply stupid.

[Dick Allen]

Not sure what any of that has to do with anything.

 

(1) The Sox have one of the highest payrolls in baseball and are profitable. But some fans continue to think we should act like a small market team. Whatever.

 

(2) Regarding Jenks' K-rate... his big K year was also his worst season. The last two years he's had both a declining K-rate and a declining ERA. Call me crazy but I prefer a lower ERA.

 

(3) Jenks is a big boy.... true. And you're worried this will limit his longevity. Give me a break... he's 27 years old. Frankly I'm not worried about 5 years from now. I'm worried about 2009.

 

(4) What in the world would calling Theo and offering to trade Jenks for Papelbon prove? You could have the same conversation with Theo about Nathan, K-Rod, or Mariano Rivera and the answer would still be no.

 

Bottom line: There is a small group of elite closers in baseball. Jenks is in that group. If we get rid of him, we won't have one anymore. I fail to see how it would make our team better next year.

Once again, you are coming to a conclusion prematurely. If the White Sox trade Jenks, they will be getting something in return. What that something is would determine if it were improving the team or not.

 

As far as Jenks/Papelbon, you were the one comparing them. I'm just giving my opinion that Papelbon is worth more.

 

As far as the White Sox payroll, I am not treating it like a small market team. I am being realistic. KW is not going to want to pay $10 million + to a closer. Up until 2008, which took 2 years of getting the bullpen being pounded, he didn't want to pay more than $2 million for any reliever.

 

As for a declining K rate, Jenks has gotten the job done while his K's have been in free fall. There is no doubt about it, although even with his stats, the games have become a little more interesting. Obviously, he could be an exception, but through the years power pitchers with declining k rates usually start getting lit up. I have always been of the opinion Jenks career will be brief, taking into account the screw and I see a guy who gets pretty heavy during the season.

 

KW has stated he would trade anyone if it improved the team. He won't trade Jenks unless he feels the team will be better because of it. The White Sox have some improving to do. Jenks is a guy who teams might be inclined to overpay to acquire, and a guy whose effectiveness may start weakening. I have no idea what KW is being offered if he threw his name out there as a possibility for the Mets or any other team, and I'm not advocating trading him for some minor leaguer who has a lot of tools but hasn't performed. Also Jenks' name being out there may just be some BS, or it may be KW asking for more than the moon for him. All I and the others are saying is if you are going to trade him before he makes $10 million or more a year, now is the time you will maximize value unless some contender has an injury near the trade deadline, but then you are only going to get prospects. If you want major league ready players who will contribute right away, now is the time. I wouldn't trade him for the same package the Cubs are supposedly offering for Peavy. Obviously SD is having money problems but quality is more important than quantity when you are talking about dealing pitchers like Jenks and Peavy.

Edited November 10, 2008 by Dick Allen

[witesoxfan]

Just say no to Fernando Martinez!

 

Is there something wrong with 20 year olds who are oozing with talent and ready to jump to AAA next season?

[rangercal]

Bottom line: There is a small group of elite closers in baseball. Jenks is in that group. If we get rid of him, we won't have one anymore. I fail to see how it would make our team better next year.

 

Is that small group 15-20 guys?

[Balta1701]

Is that small group 15-20 guys?

Here's the list of about 30 guys who had 15 or more saves last year, in order of # of saves. I think when you look at the names, you probably put Bobby right around #10 in quality.

 

Francisco Rodriguez

Jose Valverde

Joakim Soria

Brad Lidge

Jonathan Papelbon

Brian Wilson

Mariano Rivera

Joe Nathan

Kerry Wood

Francisco Cordero

B.J. Ryan

George Sherrill

Trevor Hoffman

Brian Fuentes

Bobby Jenks

Kevin Gregg

Salomon Torres

Troy Percival

Billy Wagner

Brandon Lyon

C.J. Wilson

Matt Capps

Todd Jones

Jon Rauch

Huston Street

Takashi Saito

Ryan Franklin

J.J. Putz