Mets & White Sox Have Been Talking...

[Disco72]

As usual you make some good points. One thing that I would about the Sox and Kenny's current situation is that IMO he can afford to deal both Javy and Jenks in a market starved for good, reasonably-priced pitching as well as two sluggers in a market starved for good, reasonably-priced hitting.

 

The wrong move here IMO is trading just one player and expecting it all to work out just fine. Notice how after '06 Kenny dealt 2 SP for 5 pitching prospects. Danks and Floyd worked out, Gio and Masset were used in other deals, and Rasner is slowly but surely developing in the minors, although he's going to need to hurry up and develop if he wants to stay out of the Rule-5 draft. So in that deal we've gotten value out of 4 of the 5 players acquired so far with two of them mainstays.

 

The right move, to me, is trading at least three, preferrably 4, of those tradeable commodities. All we need to think about right now is Danks and Floyd. If Jenks, Vazquez, Dye/Thome/Konerko/Swisher were on another team, would anyone seriously consider giving up one of Danks of Floyd for that kind of player? If we can make 4 deals, and come away with 8-12 prospects, then we only need three of those to join the big league club at some point. If we concentrate on pitching and can come away with a couple #2/#3 starters and either an everyday position player or a dominant reliever, we've already IMO added value to the organization. Kenny does trade his prospects, so also consider that some of what we would acquire in such a scenario would end up landing us other veterans, preferrably younger ones who better fit into the equation. Prospects are the easiest things to deal in this game because you can trade prospects with 25 teams (omitting divisional rivals) instead of only 5-6 depending on need, league, salary requirements, contract length, payroll, and ownership issues.

 

Above all, this team needs to completely revamp its minor league organization as well as continue towards a new, younger core. We can't contend for the next 10 years without doing that. People always get worked up about trading for prospects, but I think it is important to understand 1) the conditions of the starting pitching market right now where the difference between a veteran who provides 200IP with a 4.50 ERA and a prospect who provides 170-180IP with a 4.80 ERA can be as much as $15 million per season, 2) that the age of our old core forces transition, 3) the impact our new core has had on our team, and 4) the importance of the Sox baseball version of the 2010 plan. We don't need to pay Javy to be a #4 when we can target a couple young #2/#3's who have a downside of a #4 at $22M less over the next two seasons; we absolutely have to get younger with our sluggers and doing it now for value instead of letting them walk could benefit tremendously; we can afford to lose dynamite in the lineup due to the emergence of Quentin and Ramirez; and finally, why not potentially add a few more pieces to the 2010 crop of talent that, if we hang on to it, could include Beckham, Danks, Poreda, Shelby, and Allen? Every one of those players, if they stay healthy, should end '09 in Double A or Triple A.

 

I still don't think you can trade away that many pieces and compete in 2009. While you may find that pitcher that can give you 4.80 ERA, you might have to cycle through 2-3 guys before you identify your "keeper." At that point, you've potentially screwed up the first half the season, if not more. Your second to last sentence seems to imply that you are targeting 2010 moreso than 2009. With an emerging young core, I think KW is thinking (at least this is what I'm thinking) will make some shifts to improve that core while staying competitive for 2009. As others have said, you almost need to plan on one or more of Danks, Floyd, Alexei, and TCQ regressing in 2009, so you need to keep the lineup around them (offense or pitching) pretty strong.

 

In an ideal scenario, I could see KW trading away one important offensive piece (one of Dye, Paulie, Swish) and one pitcher (Vaz, obviously, maybe Jenks) while signing one veteran pitcher (Garcia, Randy Johnson, Hoffman, etc.) or one veteran hitter (depending on who is traded) while filling the other open spot via trade. Basically, by trading two veteran pieces, he gets one veteran (or experienced) piece back along with prospects and signs a veteran FA. This maintains the ability to compete in 2009, continues upgrading the "young core," and hopefully more fully balances the offense.

[BurlyMan56]

Wouldn't be surprised to see Jenks go to the Mets at all. KW will get his guys in Street and Taveras from the Rockies, unfortunately.

[santo=dorf]

Let's sell high on Danks too.

 

I'm not serious about that, but if some is dumb enough to offer a solid package or even better/expensive pitcher for Floyd, I say pull the trigger. He's still out of options so if he reverts to any but last year, he's going to get thrown in the BP.

[beck72]

If teams would be willing to give up as much for Thornton as they would for Jenks, the sox would probably jump at the chance. Yet I don't see that many teams willing to do that on a guy not proven as a closer.

[Fantl916]

If everyone really stops to think about it, KW and the Sox are in a great spot here. Jenks and Vazquez don't have to be traded, but if teams miss out on the Texiera's, K-rods/K Wood's, Peavy's/Burnett's/Lowe's of the world they might look to the Sox as having the only good options otherwise.

 

KW has the luxury of waiting for the market to set itself, and not pouncing on the first decent deal that presents itself. Imagine what Omar Minaya is offering right now for Jenks: let's for example say it's something like Neise and Heilman. What if the Met's lose out on all the good free agent closers, and miss on on trading for guys like Huston Street (even though he sucks). Imagine the leverage KW establishes.

 

Same thing with Javy. If a team wants a "good" SP (and yes i know many dont think Javy's good, but his general perception around baseball is that hes very good) could net us way more in 2 months after Lowe, Burnett, Peavy and Sabathia are all off the market than it would right now. The market, which currently might include the Mets and another team or so, could grow to include the Yankees, Braves, Orioles, Angles, and so on depending on how the chips falls. KW then can pick and choose and whether there's a package worth trading Javy for. I think with guys like Dye, Javy, and Jenks, you dont just trade them to trade them because you want to "sell high".

 

We don't need to trade any of those guys per say, but if we wait long enough we just might get that offer that blows us away enough to trade them...

 

my dream scenario looks like this:

Swisher to Colorado for Tavaras and Street

Jenks, Broadway, and BA to the Mets for Murphy, Neise, and Heilman

 

 

CF: Tavaras

2b: Murphy

LF: Quentin

RF: Dye

DH: Thome

1b: Konerko

SS: Alexei

C: AJP

3b: Fields

 

SP: Buerhle, Danks, Floyd, Javy, and Richard/Neise

Bullpen: Richard/Neise/Count, Dotel, Linebrink, Thornton, Poreda, Heilman, Street

[RockRaines]

I think you'll see KW wait back on these players he doesnt have to sell and see if a team gets desperate because one of their main competitors grabs one of the big free agents or makes a big trade.

[knightni]

Street is crap.

[Dick Allen]

If teams would be willing to give up as much for Thornton as they would for Jenks, the sox would probably jump at the chance. Yet I don't see that many teams willing to do that on a guy not proven as a closer.

The other thing is Thornton is a lot older than most think. I'm pretty sure he's 32 or 33.

[Balta1701]

The other thing is Thornton is a lot older than most think. I'm pretty sure he's 32 or 33.

Turned 32 last September.

[Fantl916]

Street is crap.

 

Depends on the context, as a closer... yes, and a middle reliver... the expectations would be lessened and he'd be fine

 

 

[knightni]

Yet Jason Nix is going to have a break out year.....

There's a difference between not having a chance to play and being overworked to the point of injury.

[beck72]

Street is crap.

The only reason Street might not be a good get would be if he wasn't healthy, and the price would be too high in terms of talent to acquire him. He's a proven arm.

[Kalapse]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writ...ines/index.html

 

Holliday trade shows Hot Stove season is heating up

 

It isn't true that the most exciting thing to happen last week at the General Manager Meetings at the St. Regis Resort Monarch Bay in Dana Point, Calif. was an overzealous security guard hassling Yankees GM Brian Cashman about whether he belonged in the hotel -- though, it may have seemed that way at the time. Really, important exchanges did occur at the GM Meetings, even if no stars changed teams in those few days, and that became clear just a couple days later when there was an agreement for a trade to send superstar outfielderMatt Holliday from Colorado to Oakland in a fairly surprising mega-trade.

 

A's owner Lew Wolff has told associates he's "tired of losing,'' so it appears the A's will keep Holliday, at least until this summer, when they'll presumably re-evaluate whether their stunning winter deal that's expected to send talented young outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, left-handed pitcher Greg Smith and longtime reliever Huston Street to Colorado, has re-made them into a quick contender. But in the meantime, there should be action aplenty across the board.

 

While the GM's conference was held just a little too soon for major trades or free-agent signings to be consummated, contrary to the perception, the GMs still stirred up a lot of dialogue about three superstar free agents plus many more stars on the block, including Padres star pitcher Jake Peavy and White Sox stars Bobby Jenks and Jermaine Dye, not to mention a whole host of trade speculation, some of the best involving whether the Dodgers might move their talented young catcher Russell Martin to third base or even elsewhere.

 

If the GM meetings weren't thrilling enough for some, it still set up what promises to be a winter where several major stars change teams. There's the threesome of free agent mega-stars aiming for nine-figure deals -- CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and Manny Ramirez -- a very nice next batch of free-agent pitchers A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe, Ryan Dempster, Ben Sheets and Oliver Perez, plus closers Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes and everyday stars such as Rafael Furcal, Bobby Abreu, Orlando Hudson, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell and Orlando Cabrera. Then there's a whole host of trade possibilities sure to be explored, especially by the many teams priced out of the big free agents in the economic meltdown. Here are seven intriguing, continuing winter storylines:

1. CC Sabathia

 

The Brewers made a bold (for them) proposal believed to be $100 million over five years for the ace left-hander but have to know they are in deep. Still, they are apparently holding off on listening to trade inquiries for centerfielder Mike Cameron and perhaps Prince Fielder until they're sure Sabathia is going to greener pastures. He's said to slightly prefer California (his home state), so the Dodgers and Angels could be big players. But as one GM said in predicting a big score by the Yankees for perhaps $150 million over six years: "When does anyone ever leave a dollar on the table, much less twenty or thirty million dollars?''

2. Mark Teixeira

 

The Angels badly want him back and are probably the favorite to re-sign him, but one club official insisted they won't let things drag out. Yet, Teixeira has seemingly prepped his whole life for this moment, and will want to see what the ultra-rich Yankees (whose revenues will skyrocket in their new Yankee Stadium, even in an economic meltdown), Red Sox, Mariners, Nationals and hometown Orioles say. Whatever happens, as a friend of Teixeira's said, "It's good to be Mark Teixeira now.''

3. Manny Ramirez

 

The Dodgers announced they made an offer for the second highest real-dollar salary in history, and while true, SI.com first learned the deal was $45 million over two years. That means it's only for $5 million more than the two club options Ramirez went to great lengths to erase before he was traded to Los Angeles in the first place. Ramirez went on to play superman in Hollywood, batting .396 with 17 home runs and 53 RBIs in 53 games, the really turning it on the playoffs (.520). Unless the Dodgers truly get serious, sources indicate to SI.com that the Orioles, Blue Jays and Yankees, three AL teams that can offer a DH role, or perhaps even Philadelphia (which lost out on Holliday and whose manager, Charlie Manuel, was Ramirez's first hitting coach), could blow away L.A.'s offer.

4. Russell Martin

 

Word is going around that a few people with the Dodgers have soured on Martin, and some of them may include members of the team's excellent pitching staff. Outside teams were anxious to try to make a deal for Martin, who has proved to be a fine two-way player, even if he can apparently wear on folks. Third base could be another option if the problem is limited to the pitchers. If the Dodgers do decide to move him -- and the evidence is fairly thin so far -- the Red Sox, Reds, Royals, Marlins, Astros and anyone else looking for a catcher would be lining up.

5. Jake Peavy

 

Peavy's bags are practically packed only 10 months after signing a $53 million, three-extension with San Diego. GM Kevin Towers said on his way out of Dana Point there was "momentum'' for a trade, with the Braves, Cubs and Dodgers possible landing spots. The Yankees still look like a major long shot considering Peavy has a no-trade clause and much prefers those three teams in the National League. Word is, Towers has preferred to do a deal with Atlanta, presumably for their prospects. But the Braves balked at including heralded pitching prospect Tommy Hanson, and the ever-aggressive Cubs are working hard, as well.

6. Chicago White Sox

 

GM Ken Williams, perhaps baseball's biggest risk taker, is listening to offers on closer Jenks (the Mets are trying to swing a deal for him before doling out free-agent riches to Fuentes or Rodriguez), and even Dye, as well as innings-eater Javier Vazquez. And, of course, first baseman Paul Konerko remains another trade possibility, especially for the teams that lose out in the Teixeira sweepstakes.

7. Washington Nationals

 

They were acting as if they'll play for Teixeira, Burnett and Holliday before agreeing to a trade on Monday that will bring pitcher Scott Olsen and outfielder Josh Willingham from the division rival Marlins. But one competing GM said only Adam Dunn is a realistic get among the stars, and that's "if they overpay,'' which they might since Nationals GM Jim Bowden "has an infatuation" with Dunn. Ultimately, one owner agreed that the Nats won't sign multiple big names, saying of the team-owning Lerners, "They are rich, but they're pretty tight.''

[iamshack]

If you got a solid package for Jenks and Dye, then acquired Willy T and Street, for spare parts, this could be a pretty solid start to the off-season.

 

You get some young blood into the organization with the Jenks-Dye trade, while also clearing some payroll, along with getting a solid, young arm for the pen in Street, while also adding the speed element everyone is so crazy for(Not a Willy T fan, but it seems like it's going to happen.)

 

 

I would love to have Fernando Martinez in this system.

 

I just don't see Kenny trading some core pieces like that for unproven talent. If he were to move three pieces like Dye, Jenks, and Vasquez, it's going to be for some major league ready players.

 

Reyes?

[Steve9347]

Reyes?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

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AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

 

I wish.

[iamshack]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

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AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

 

I wish.

 

Yeah, I think you exaggerated your point a bit, but I get it....he is basically my favorite player in baseball...let me dream...

 

"On the other side of that page," who do the Mets have that might be worth those three players, Steve? Other than obviously Wright and Santana, who aren't going anywhere? And I don't consider Beltran worth that package, btw.

[Kalapse]

http://www.metsblog.com/2008/11/11/relief-...jenks/#comments

[heirdog]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

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I wish.

 

I think Reyes is a 3-line "HAHAHA" player but Wright, on the other hand, is more of a 4.67 line "HAHAHA" guy. If the Mets are serious about winning, then getting a Vaquez, Dye and Jenks which fills so many holes for them with proven all-star type talent (Dye/Jenks), the cost may be Reyes...gulp...and prospects.

[iamshack]

I don't really know how much of this is true, but I do know this:

 

1) Omar Minaya loves Javier Vasquez as much as anyone in baseball, even Kenny Williams.

 

2) The Mets have no closer and no bullpen; the reason the Mets didn't make the playoffs last season was because of this. If you do not fix your mistakes as an executive in NY, you lose your job. The White Sox are reportedly willing to move Jenks.

 

3) The Mets need outfielders. The White Sox are reportedly willing to move Jermaine Dye.

 

4) The White Sox won the AL Central Division last season. It seems odd that they would unload three important pieces for a package of prospects after winning the AL Central Division.

 

5) The Mets have a few valuable commodities, such as David Wright, Jose Reyes, Johan Santana and Carlos Beltran. Wright is the fan favorite, Santana just signed a bajillion dollar contract, Beltran is aging, makes $18 million per season, and is on a team that already is short OF's. Which one of these kids just doesn't belong?

 

Clearly, I am not saying the Mets would trade Reyes for that package. Just saying...

[Steve9347]

Yeah, I think you exaggerated your point a bit, but I get it....he is basically my favorite player in baseball...let me dream...

 

"On the other side of that page," who do the Mets have that might be worth those three players, Steve? Other than obviously Wright and Santana, who aren't going anywhere? And I don't consider Beltran worth that package, btw.

Well, Beltran, Martinez, and another prospect or two and I'd be as happy as a pig in s***.

[Steve9347]

1) Omar Minaya loves Javier Vasquez as much as anyone in baseball, even Kenny Williams.

That's like saying Omar Minaya loves bees as much as anyone in "My Girl", including Macaulay Culkin's character.

[iamshack]

Well, Beltran, Martinez, and another prospect or two and I'd be as happy as a pig in s***.

 

Beltran's numbers have been quite good lately, but he's on the wrong side of thirty and he makes nearly $19 million annually approximately for the next five years. I'm not particularly interested in that.

 

We get Beltran AND Martinez back from them, and what does their outfield look like now? And in 2010?

[iamshack]

That's like saying Omar Minaya loves bees as much as anyone in "My Girl", including Macaulay Culkin's character.

 

Is it?

 

Minaya has been on Javy as much as anyone in the league over the past several years.

 

Are you going to be here all week, Steve?

[Steve9347]

Is it?

 

Minaya has been on Javy as much as anyone in the league over the past several years.

 

Are you going to be here all week, Steve?

If you compare the two statements, I was basically pointing out that Kenny certainly does not love Javy... especially not after last year. As for Beltran, you'd assuredly have to get that contract partially paid, which I don't believe would be an issue. Maybe even finally get Heilman.

Edited November 11, 2008 by Steve9347

[iamshack]

If you compare the two statements, I was basically pointing out that Kenny certainly does not love Javy... especially not after last year. As for Beltran, you'd assuredly have to get that contract partially paid, which I don't believe would be an issue. Maybe even finally get Heilman.

 

I was saying Kenny likes Javy in the context of the last several years.

 

Simply because he is looking to move him doesn't mean it has anything to do with Kenny....it's not as if anything happened with Ozzie towards the end of the season...