What do these stats tell you

[jasonxctf]

from fivethirtyeight.com

 

Southern States- % of White Vote

 

From 2004 to 2008, there are 15 southern states examined. The examination was on what % of white voters went for Obama in 2008, versus Kerry in 2004.

Of the 15...

5 states voted for Obama in a higher %,

6 states voted for Obama at the same %

and 4 states voted for Obama at a lower %.

 

The 4 states whose white voters supported Obama at a lower %, then they did Kerry in 2004, were...

 

Arkansas- 6% lower

Mississippi- 7% lower

Alabama- 8% lower

Louisiana- 10% lower

 

What do these stats tell us about these 4 states, if anything at all?

[BigSqwert]

Here's something cool I saw yesterday. Involves those 4 states that you mention. The final map on the page is quite telling.

[lostfan]

I have a similar thread to this on another forum. Basically the whole country shifted blue except for a swath from Oklahoma to about West Virginia that shifted red.

[Jenksismyhero]

Honestly, I don't think much of it. Without an exit poll that asks "are you afraid of a black president" or "did you vote for McCain because he's white" there are just too many other factors that people consider when voting (and even then I doubt you could get an accurate statistic because people would lie).

 

Here's a question I have (and i'm not trying to be racist here). Why is it that a white person can't say "ya know, as a white guy, I thought McCain would be better for me so I votedfor him" without being a racist, but 97% of the black population voted for Obama, a large % of which voted that way simply because he was black, and it's not? I don't see a problem with blacks voting for Obama, I just think it's odd that on the one hand you can vote because of race and it's ok, but on the other it's not.

[kapkomet]

Honestly, I don't think much of it. Without an exit poll that asks "are you afraid of a black president" or "did you vote for McCain because he's white" there are just too many other factors that people consider when voting (and even then I doubt you could get an accurate statistic because people would lie).

 

Here's a question I have (and i'm not trying to be racist here). Why is it that a white person can't say "ya know, as a white guy, I thought McCain would be better for me so I votedfor him" without being a racist, but 97% of the black population voted for Obama, a large % of which voted that way simply because he was black, and it's not? I don't see a problem with blacks voting for Obama, I just think it's odd that on the one hand you can vote because of race and it's ok, but on the other it's not.

 

Thank you. Because that's what we just witnessed, no distrespect meant to anyone when I say this.

 

[The Critic]

I think it's all relative.

If the US had 43 consecutive black presidents, I tend to believe that many white people would vote for a white candidate, believing he or she may have their interests closer to the front burner.

Is that a racist thought pattern? I don't know. Doesn't automatically seem that way to me.

[kapkomet]

I think it's all relative.

If the US had 43 consecutive black presidents, I tend to believe that many white people would vote for a white candidate, believing he or she may have their interests closer to the front burner.

Is that a racist thought pattern? I don't know. Doesn't automatically seem that way to me.

I think this was the first time that "one of their own" could be voted in, views of "that one" (hehe, yes, joking) be damned.

 

I don't think it's a bad thing, just reality.

 

[jasonxctf]

its an odd trend, that only affected these 5 states. So the question, is why these 5?

 

As for the black voting for black, versus white voting for white, that's a great point. However, did the black population vote with Kerry at say 90% or so back in 2004? So if Obama got 93-94%, that wouldn't have been that different.

[Soxy]

its an odd trend, that only affected these 5 states. So the question, is why these 5?

 

As for the black voting for black, versus white voting for white, that's a great point. However, did the black population vote with Kerry at say 90% or so back in 2004? So if Obama got 93-94%, that wouldn't have been that different.

I don't remember where I read it, but before the election I read that Obama was polling the lowest among whites that lived in heavily populated by African-Americans.

 

Does that fit with those states?

[Texsox]

from fivethirtyeight.com

 

Southern States- % of White Vote

 

From 2004 to 2008, there are 15 southern states examined. The examination was on what % of white voters went for Obama in 2008, versus Kerry in 2004.

Of the 15...

5 states voted for Obama in a higher %,

6 states voted for Obama at the same %

and 4 states voted for Obama at a lower %.

 

The 4 states whose white voters supported Obama at a lower %, then they did Kerry in 2004, were...

 

Arkansas- 6% lower

Mississippi- 7% lower

Alabama- 8% lower

Louisiana- 10% lower

 

What do these stats tell us about these 4 states, if anything at all?

 

That the Bible belt is socially conservative and prefers a socially conservative President?

[jasonxctf]

interesting fact. Not sure though.

 

The southern states where Obama did better amongst white voters than Kerry were...

Kentucky, North Carolina, Virgina, South Carolina and Texas.

 

The states where it was even, were...

Tennessee, Oklahoma, West Virgina, Georgia, Missouri and Florida.

[jasonxctf]

That the Bible belt is socially conservative and prefers a socially conservative President?

 

but why lower with Obama then with Kerry?

[mr_genius]

Here we go with this again

[Texsox]

but why lower with Obama then with Kerry?

 

Because they are two different candidates. Some people are independents and do not vote 100% down party lines. Why did McCain not get the nomination in 2000 but did in 2008? Why did Bush the elder not get reelected? Why did Carter not get reelected? Why did Clinton's numbers change from election to election? Why did Reagan's numbers change? Why did Obama's numbers go higher in Florida or Ohio? Because events change, people change, and candidates change. The issues facing the country change.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Honestly, I don't think much of it. Without an exit poll that asks "are you afraid of a black president" or "did you vote for McCain because he's white" there are just too many other factors that people consider when voting (and even then I doubt you could get an accurate statistic because people would lie).

 

Here's a question I have (and i'm not trying to be racist here). Why is it that a white person can't say "ya know, as a white guy, I thought McCain would be better for me so I votedfor him" without being a racist, but 97% of the black population voted for Obama, a large % of which voted that way simply because he was black, and it's not? I don't see a problem with blacks voting for Obama, I just think it's odd that on the one hand you can vote because of race and it's ok, but on the other it's not.

 

Double standard

 

[Chet Lemon]

Louisiana- 10% lower

 

What do these stats tell us about these 4 states, if anything at all?

 

I'll take a stab at explaining Louisiana. After Katrina struck, many people from New Orleans have been displaced. Most of those displaced are black voters, and the plurality of Democratic voters for President in Louisiana are black.

 

[Texsox]

Or Kerry had more appeal for black voters.

[lostfan]

Ugh, f*** this thread now. Nevermind.

[BigSqwert]

Or Kerry had more appeal for black voters.

 

And I have some great land to sell you in Florida.

[lostfan]

its an odd trend, that only affected these 5 states. So the question, is why these 5?

 

As for the black voting for black, versus white voting for white, that's a great point. However, did the black population vote with Kerry at say 90% or so back in 2004? So if Obama got 93-94%, that wouldn't have been that different.

Why is the bolded part glossed over like it's statistical noise whenever someone says it as the answer to the "double standard" question?

[Texsox]

And I have some great land to sell you in Florida.

 

Yeah, there was no other issues besides race. The economy, homeland security, immigration, border fence, balanced budgets, taxes, all that stuff had nothing to do with anyone's vote who voted for McCain.

 

I voted for McCain because I'm a racist. That's the conclusion that people want to draw and it's 100% bull f***ing s*** and it pisses me off every time there is an attempt to label me, and those that switched to the GOP this election, as such.

 

That is a strong accusation, that attacks my very character.

[lostfan]

Yeah, there was no other issues besides race. The economy, homeland security, immigration, border fence, balanced budgets, taxes, all that stuff had nothing to do with anyone's vote who voted for McCain.

 

I voted for McCain because I'm a racist. That's the conclusion that people want to draw and it's 100% bull f***ing s*** and it pisses me off every time there is an attempt to label me, and those that switched to the GOP this election, as such.

 

That is a strong accusation, that attacks my very character.

Who says that even remotely applies to you? It applies to a certain percentage of the country (and anybody who pretends otherwise is just lying to themselves and everyone else), but why assume people are including you in that group when they're not?

 

I actually get just as pissed off whenever people say things like "most black people voted for Obama because he's black." Uh, no, most black people voted for him because he was a Democrat, a few voted for him because he's black.

Edited November 18, 2008 by lostfan

[southsider2k5]

Who says that even remotely applies to you? It applies to a certain percentage of the country (and anybody who pretends otherwise is just lying to themselves and everyone else), but why assume people are including you in that group when they're not?

 

I actually get just as pissed off whenever people say things like "most black people voted for Obama because he's black." Uh, no, most black people voted for him because he was a Democrat, a few voted for him because he's black.

 

It sounds like an apples to apples comparision on small parts of the country who voted solely on race to me.

[lostfan]

I don't have the energy to do this again.

[kapkomet]

Who says that even remotely applies to you? It applies to a certain percentage of the country (and anybody who pretends otherwise is just lying to themselves and everyone else), but why assume people are including you in that group when they're not?

 

I actually get just as pissed off whenever people say things like "most black people voted for Obama because he's black." Uh, no, most black people voted for him because he was a Democrat, a few voted for him because he's black.

I heard on the news story after story after story about people who haven't voted for 20, 30, 40 years only to vote in this election for solely one purpose. Because Mr. Obama was black.

 

It's a small sample size, and quite honestly, I don't really care that they did, because at least they were in the process. Having said that, it's a damn good question. What did Kerry pull both in pure number of votes, and as a percentage? Both numbers mean something this time around.

 

It's an interesting question, but it's sure as hell isn't one to get worked up over. The facts are, Obama's the president. I think a VERY small part of it is due to race, but 97% is because of the political climate we're in. It's just a question.