Sox / Rays talking Jermaine Dye deal

[GreatScott82]

It makes sense for Tampa to trade for a guy like JD. He is on the cheaper end of the power hitters available and they need more power in their lineup. We need more speed and another SP.

 

Who could they possibly give up?

- Jackson or Sonnestine: These are the 2 names TB will be willing to deal at the right price this offseason. To me Jackson has more upside and has nastier stuff.

 

-Carl Crawford- With the emergence of speedy guys like Iwamura and Upton- Crawford may be available. I think it would take more than Dye however. That is why I mentioned a possible Jenks-Dye for Crawford-Jackson possibility... Its far fetched but makes sense for both teams.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[witesoxfan]

I predict Howell sucks ass next season.No matter what team he is on I believe teams will have him figured out.

 

He has good stuff and I think he'll be fine. He might have a Matt Thornton 2007 type year, but that doesn't mean he'll never be good again. He's not a guy like Cotts, whose entire arsenal was a hitch in his delivery that made him hard to pick up.

[ThunderBolt]

So wait, a guy who has control problems would be better off becoming a closer where he has less time to warm up and less time to find his release point? It worked for Bobby, but Bobby is kind of the exception, not the rule, plus Bobby developed more into a pitcher. As a 4th or 5th starter with the potential to become a 2 or 3 I'd love Edwin Jackson, especially if we could also get a pitching prospect in the deal.

 

As for Brignac, why not just trade for the real Khalil Greene? He's out there and should cost quite a bit less.

The idea of creating a closer comes from the belief that you can put an above-average pitch put him in the 9th and have accumulate numbers that raise his value. This would be ideal for a pitcher like Jackson who struggles to get his control as the game goes on. Jackson has a straight fastball that goes up to 97, and a devastating slider, but struggles throwing his other pitches over the plate for a strike. So, you make him a two-pitch pitcher ,and put him into a position that not only allows him to get his work in, but accumulate stats that have some surface value to the rest of the MLB (the saves statistics.)

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

The idea of creating a closer comes from the belief that you can put an above-average pitch put him in the 9th and have accumulate numbers that raise his value. This would be ideal for a pitcher like Jackson who struggles to get his control as the game goes on. Jackson has a straight fastball that goes up to 97, and a devastating slider, but struggles throwing his other pitches over the plate for a strike. So, you make him a two-pitch pitcher ,and put him into a position that not only allows him to get his work in, but accumulate stats that have some surface value to the rest of the MLB (the saves statistics.)

I see what you're saying, but the problem is that 1) we already have relievers who fit that description - two-pitch pitchers - who would be better bets to succeed in a closers role since they have experience working out of the pen, and 2) that Jackson is arbitration eligible, so even if he does do well as a closer, we'll still have to pay him like a starter.

 

I love the idea of trading Jenks if we can get a nice haul simply because I believe Thornton could and would excel as a closer. Thornton makes $6.575M combined through 2011, so if we go that route we save a ton of money at the closer position. If we go with an arb-eligible project like Jackson there then we spend more on a closer and we still have to spend money to fill another rotation spot. Also, we've got Richard and Poreda, so if Thornton slides over to closer we can put Richard in as a lefty setup man and ease Poreda into the pen as a lefty specialist. I guess if you feel Richard can be a starter it would be a different situation, but I think he's best off in the pen. The second and third times through the lineup would have me worried about Richard.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

It makes sense for Tampa to trade for a guy like JD. He is on the cheaper end of the power hitters available and they need more power in their lineup. We need more speed and another SP.

 

Who could they possibly give up?

- Jackson or Sonnestine: These are the 2 names TB will be willing to deal at the right price this offseason. To me Jackson has more upside and has nastier stuff.

 

-Carl Crawford- With the emergence of speedy guys like Iwamura and Upton- Crawford may be available. I think it would take more than Dye however. That is why I mentioned a possible Jenks-Dye for Crawford-Jackson possibility... Its far fetched but makes sense for both teams.

Sonnenstine put up better numbers but I don't think I could stomach watching that guy pitch. Watching him reminded me so much of Ryan Bukvich in 2007 with the way he kept hanging breaking balls up in the zone and somehow getting away with it. Jackson OTOH, if he continues to improve ever so slightly like he has been, is still a #4 or #5 in the big leagues. If he figures it out and adds to his repertoire he's a potential ace.

[rockren]

Dye for Iwamura and Howell? The only other piece that would fit woud be Upton, and I know Maddon had personality clashes with him, but I dont see that happening. If it does and the Mets deal happens, KW will get a lot of hype for his offseason moves, similar to Detroit last season.

 

Yeah...expiring contracts and kiss blown by Jerry West to his old franchise in the Lakers.

 

How the NBA didn't even attempt to uphold that deal is a joke. When the Bulls talked to the Grizz the year before...the Grizz wanted Deng and Gordon for Gasol. Less than a year later expiring contracts did the job....right.

[ILMOU]

Yeah...expiring contracts and kiss blown by Jerry West to his old franchise in the Lakers.

 

How the NBA didn't even attempt to uphold that deal is a joke. When the Bulls talked to the Grizz the year before...the Grizz wanted Deng and Gordon for Gasol. Less than a year later expiring contracts did the job....right.

 

Off topic yes, but:

 

Yes, the Gasol deal smelled rotten then, and it hasn't it gotten any fresher. It was a deal the Grizz could have made with ANY team, but they choose to make a team in their own conference that much better for at least 5 years - makes absolutely no sense.

 

There has been always a double standard when it comes to how the league treats the marquee franchises. There were tampering rumors galore when the Lakers got Shaq, but nothing came of it. Yet they don't think twice about crippling the T-wolves for years over the Joe Smith fiasco. The NBA NEVER would have punished the Lakers, Bulls, Knicks or Celtics so harshly.

 

If D Stern actually wonders why people don't really TRUST the NBA, he only needs to look in the mirror.

[Chisoxfn]

Dye for Iwamura and Howell? The only other piece that would fit woud be Upton, and I know Maddon had personality clashes with him, but I dont see that happening. If it does and the Mets deal happens, KW will get a lot of hype for his offseason moves, similar to Detroit last season.

I'd cream my pants if we were able to acquire Upton for Dye. The reality is that Upton has way too much value based upon his pure tools, plus he had a ridiculous post-season run.

[Chisoxfn]

He has good stuff and I think he'll be fine. He might have a Matt Thornton 2007 type year, but that doesn't mean he'll never be good again. He's not a guy like Cotts, whose entire arsenal was a hitch in his delivery that made him hard to pick up.

Howell's stuff isn't even close to being on par with Thornton's. He has mediocre velocity on his fastball, although his hook is a plus pitch. I was a big fan of his back to his days at the University of Texas but I think scouts had it right when they identified him as the type of guy that wouldn't make it as a starter. He has a fit being a solid reliever, but I don't see him being anything like Thornton who is a dominant reliever at times and a potential closer.

[caulfield12]

Howell's stuff isn't even close to being on par with Thornton's. He has mediocre velocity on his fastball, although his hook is a plus pitch. I was a big fan of his back to his days at the University of Texas but I think scouts had it right when they identified him as the type of guy that wouldn't make it as a starter. He has a fit being a solid reliever, but I don't see him being anything like Thornton who is a dominant reliever at times and a potential closer.

 

 

It just goes to show that it's possible for an ex-Royal to have a positive effect on a bullpen...and Howell, an ill-advised former first rounder, was pretty much given up for dead.

 

OTOH, H. Ramirez and MacDougal have been duds for us, while Carrasco has been something of a pleasant surprise.

[BearSox]

Sonnenstine put up better numbers but I don't think I could stomach watching that guy pitch. Watching him reminded me so much of Ryan Bukvich in 2007 with the way he kept hanging breaking balls up in the zone and somehow getting away with it. Jackson OTOH, if he continues to improve ever so slightly like he has been, is still a #4 or #5 in the big leagues. If he figures it out and adds to his repertoire he's a potential ace.

my thoughts exactly.

[rockren]

Off topic yes, but:

 

Yes, the Gasol deal smelled rotten then, and it hasn't it gotten any fresher. It was a deal the Grizz could have made with ANY team, but they choose to make a team in their own conference that much better for at least 5 years - makes absolutely no sense.

 

There has been always a double standard when it comes to how the league treats the marquee franchises. There were tampering rumors galore when the Lakers got Shaq, but nothing came of it. Yet they don't think twice about crippling the T-wolves for years over the Joe Smith fiasco. The NBA NEVER would have punished the Lakers, Bulls, Knicks or Celtics so harshly.

 

If D Stern actually wonders why people don't really TRUST the NBA, he only needs to look in the mirror.

 

Agreed.

[harfman77]

I think Fernando Perez could be a target. He would be a switch hitting version of Carlos Gomez in Minny. Rates as the Rays best baserunner and top defensive outfielder. Not sure that he would make enough contact initially to be a table setter but could be in a year or two. He put up a .781 OPS in 60 ML at bats this season and a .754 OPS at AAA. Like Gomez, K's way too much but could be a nice addition to this lineup, especially since our pitchers are proned to relying on their defense to make plays.

 

Jackson has too little control and has had a tendency to leave his pitches up and get them crushed, he would give up a lot more HR's in the Cell. I think someone like Hellickson would make more sense given the direction the team seems to be headed, less power pitchers and more guys that can get outs through putting the ball in play.

 

I think Perez, Hellickson, and Iwamura for Dye and Anderson would be the ideal deal. Iwamura is a FA after 09 so he gives Beckham a year to adjust to professional baseball, Hellickson could start in AAA and would not need a spot on the 40 man roster, and Perez could provide the speed and defense that Ozzie loves. The team also clears about $9MM off the books over the next two seasons that can be combined with other savings to add a veteran SP or corner outfielder to replace Dye.

[southsider2k5]

Wasn't Edwin Jackson one of the guys rumored to be in the Paul Konerko to LAD negotiations after 2003 or 2004?

[RockRaines]

Jackson has too little control and has had a tendency to leave his pitches up and get them crushed, he would give up a lot more HR's in the Cell. I think someone like Hellickson would make more sense given the direction the team seems to be headed, less power pitchers and more guys that can get outs through putting the ball in play.

First of all, we dont need another 2B when we have 2 on the roster and have another who may be up this summer.

 

Secondly, Jackson is a perfect pitcher for Coop to work with. He takes a little mph of his fastball, works on controlling it and possibly it adds some movement and you have a serviceable middle of the rotation guy.

[harfman77]

First of all, we dont need another 2B when we have 2 on the roster and have another who may be up this summer.

 

Secondly, Jackson is a perfect pitcher for Coop to work with. He takes a little mph of his fastball, works on controlling it and possibly it adds some movement and you have a serviceable middle of the rotation guy.

 

Yes we have Getz and Nix, Nix will probably be our AAA 2B this season and Getz would be a better fit in Ozunas role as MI sub. There is no reason to rush Beckham and if he is ready mid-summer you can always spin Iwamura again for whatever need you have at the time. Jackson is relished for the same reasons as Daniel Cabrera, everyone thinks if you go out and get a guy who throws hard you can tame him down and teach him control, but he is who he is, effectively wild at times but walks too many people. He would be our best K pitcher, but I am not sold on him at all. Our rotation is in good shape at the moment with MB, Danks, Floyd, Javy, Count*/Marquez/Richard/Poreda.

[MO2005]

Yes we have Getz and Nix, Nix will probably be our AAA 2B this season and Getz would be a better fit in Ozunas role as MI sub. There is no reason to rush Beckham and if he is ready mid-summer you can always spin Iwamura again for whatever need you have at the time. Jackson is relished for the same reasons as Daniel Cabrera, everyone thinks if you go out and get a guy who throws hard you can tame him down and teach him control, but he is who he is, effectively wild at times but walks too many people. He would be our best K pitcher, but I am not sold on him at all. Our rotation is in good shape at the moment with MB, Danks, Floyd, Javy, Count*/Marquez/Richard/Poreda.

 

Great point..Jackson is way too wild and we saw also what happened with Sisco and McDougall. I'll take a pass. I would like to see if there was a trade obtaining that Fernado Perez kid..I kind of have that weird feeling that somehow someway Carl Crawford will come here. It always seems the guys Kenny wants he gets them 2-3 years past the time he was rumored to try to acquire them. Griffey and Erstad are examples of that happening.

[RockRaines]

Yes we have Getz and Nix, Nix will probably be our AAA 2B this season and Getz would be a better fit in Ozunas role as MI sub. There is no reason to rush Beckham and if he is ready mid-summer you can always spin Iwamura again for whatever need you have at the time. Jackson is relished for the same reasons as Daniel Cabrera, everyone thinks if you go out and get a guy who throws hard you can tame him down and teach him control, but he is who he is, effectively wild at times but walks too many people. He would be our best K pitcher, but I am not sold on him at all. Our rotation is in good shape at the moment with MB, Danks, Floyd, Javy, Count*/Marquez/Richard/Poreda.

Why block your best prospect and two good younger guys with a player you dont need? And then we just "spin" him off? Thats not a very good management strategy. Secondly, you feel good with Marquez/Richard/Poreda but you arent sold on Edwin Jackson? That makes zero sense. Jackson has improve his ERA, WHIP and BAA each season he has pitched in the majors. He is only 25 years old. I would put money on him to outperform all of those guys you just listed next season.

[southsider2k5]

Great point..Jackson is way too wild and we saw also what happened with Sisco and McDougall. I'll take a pass. I would like to see if there was a trade obtaining that Fernado Perez kid..I kind of have that weird feeling that somehow someway Carl Crawford will come here. It always seems the guys Kenny wants he gets them 2-3 years past the time he was rumored to try to acquire them. Griffey and Erstad are examples of that happening.

 

We also saw what happened with Jose Contreras who led the AL in Wild Pitches. He also managed to get Carlos Quentin 2 or 3 years after trying, that one seemed to work out OK.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Why block your best prospect and two good younger guys with a player you dont need? And then we just "spin" him off? Thats not a very good management strategy. Secondly, you feel good with Marquez/Richard/Poreda but you arent sold on Edwin Jackson? That makes zero sense. Jackson has improve his ERA, WHIP and BAA each season he has pitched in the majors. He is only 25 years old. I would put money on him to outperform all of those guys you just listed next season.

Great post. Agree with everything here 100%. A deal of Dye for Jackson + prospect is the most realistic deal with Tampa, it just depends on who that prospect would be if a deal went down. Obviously Sox fans would want Davis, McGee, Jennings, etc. but a Niemann, Perez, Aybar type deal might be more likely. Who knows if this is even being discussed though?

[southsideirish71]

Great point..Jackson is way too wild and we saw also what happened with Sisco and McDougall. I'll take a pass. I would like to see if there was a trade obtaining that Fernado Perez kid..I kind of have that weird feeling that somehow someway Carl Crawford will come here. It always seems the guys Kenny wants he gets them 2-3 years past the time he was rumored to try to acquire them. Griffey and Erstad are examples of that happening.

 

McDougall and Sisco didn't have the pedigree that Jackson has. Jackson has been a highly touted prospect in the Dodgers organization that didn't exactly light it up when he came over to the Majors. Jackson is exactly Kenny's MO. He has the pedigree, the stuff, and needs the right environment and tutoring to suceed.

 

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I think Fernando Perez could be a target. He would be a switch hitting version of Carlos Gomez in Minny. Rates as the Rays best baserunner and top defensive outfielder. Not sure that he would make enough contact initially to be a table setter but could be in a year or two. He put up a .781 OPS in 60 ML at bats this season and a .754 OPS at AAA. Like Gomez, K's way too much but could be a nice addition to this lineup, especially since our pitchers are proned to relying on their defense to make plays.

 

Jackson has too little control and has had a tendency to leave his pitches up and get them crushed, he would give up a lot more HR's in the Cell. I think someone like Hellickson would make more sense given the direction the team seems to be headed, less power pitchers and more guys that can get outs through putting the ball in play.

 

I think Perez, Hellickson, and Iwamura for Dye and Anderson would be the ideal deal. Iwamura is a FA after 09 so he gives Beckham a year to adjust to professional baseball, Hellickson could start in AAA and would not need a spot on the 40 man roster, and Perez could provide the speed and defense that Ozzie loves. The team also clears about $9MM off the books over the next two seasons that can be combined with other savings to add a veteran SP or corner outfielder to replace Dye.

I'm not even a Carlos Gomez fan (how could any Sox fan be?) but he was three times the prospect that Perez is.

 

Gomez as a 22-year-old in the Majors with more PA's struck out less than Perez did as a 25-year-old in Triple A - and Gomez struck out a LOT. You can pretty much be quiet about OPS when you're talking about either of these guys since neither are power or OBP players - it's like if you had a stat that measured speed, SB success, defense in CF, and grinderness and then you used that stat to compare Konerko to Thome. OPS does not work for these guys. Look at K rate, walk rate, how much contact, HBP (do they have a habit of getting hit? if so, good), speed, etc. because those are the tools that will translate against MLB pitching. There is no way you can expect Fernando Perez's .375 career minor league OBP or his .348 Triple A OBP to hold up against MLB pitching with a K-rate that ugly. It's like, would you want a speedy Josh Fields with no power in the OF? Willy Taveras, who is seemingly always s*** on on this board, is a much better baseball player than Fernando Perez. God, I don't know why anyone likes that guy. He sucks. And you know Ozzie would play him every single day in spite of that.

Edited November 24, 2008 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[WHITESOXRANDY]

Has anyone heard if this deal has gone down yet?

[rangercal]

another 670 the score rumor thread that will likely end up as nothing. Anyone think they make things up?

[RockRaines]

another 670 the score rumor thread that will likely end up as nothing. Anyone think they make things up?

Its strategically leaked by members of the Sox org.