Will the White Sox offer arb. to Uribe and Cabrera?

[caulfield12]

Obviously, it seem they won't with Crede, although it wouldn't be a HORRIBLE idea, simply because Boras and Crede would probably never accept it. Crede's the #10 player on some offseason Free Agency lists...but he's no compensation, correct? So that wouldn't make a heck of a lot of sense, especially in view of all the off-season article...the comments by Ozzie over the weekend about disappointment in Crede (Q&A, Trib) for his reluctance to play with pain down the stretch, etc.

 

Second, it seems pretty clear they will offer it to Cabrera and it won't be accepted.

 

It also seems pretty clear that while Ozzie and KW love Juan Uribe, it might be a risk they don't want to take with Uribe (TypeB)...because they already have Betemit in the stable, Fields, Alexei Ramirez, Getz, Beckham and Nix. It just doesn't seem to make as much sense, particularly in light of the Betemit deal to get a little younger and cheaper so we can invest payroll dollars elsewhere.

 

How many teams realistically are going to look at Uribe as a starter? At SS? Could he end up in Los Angeles or San Francisco if those teams miss out on Cabrera, Furcal and Renteria? What about Minnesota? I think if I was GM Smith, I'd rather have Uribe at SS than Punto. However, all signs point to MINN moving Casilla over from 2B. Who would play 2B then? Harris? Tolbert? Uribe could make sense to them if they offered him the starting job at SS or 2B, even if the money was a little less than he'd make with the White Sox (even assuming a 20% paycut, which isn't 100% a certainty).

 

Also, this hasn't been talked about much recently, but do you think there's some kind of handshake or gentleman's agreement that the White Sox will offer Griffey arbitration (TypeB) and he will turn it down? Or would MLBPA argue that he's insane...if he only had to take a cut from last year's huge salary? Not sure what the specific rule is there...they can't really compel someone to accept arbitration.

Edited November 25, 2008 by caulfield12

[G&T]

I was under the impression that it was common practice to offer a player arbitration under an agreement that he won't accept.

 

And since when was it clear that Cabrera will be offered arbitration?

[caulfield12]

Cabrera's ego is too big to ever accept going back to the White Sox clubhouse.

 

He's the second shortstop on the market after Furcal...and before Renteria. There's no way he just walks and KW doesn't offer. If he comes back, then you have Cabrera at SS, Alexei at 2B or CF and we're a much stronger team. So it's really a win-win situation. He will get a better deal from another team...Phil Rogers mentioned it in passing and now there's some doubt floating around about what KW will ultimately do. In the end, Cabrera will end up in the NL, probably LA or SF, but quite possibly Minnesota. He was also 2nd in the Gold Glove voting. He'll find a team...heck, Royce Clayton found about five teams after he left Chicago, and he was horrible.

[caulfield12]

I was under the impression that it was common practice to offer a player arbitration under an agreement that he won't accept.

 

And since when was it clear that Cabrera will be offered arbitration?

 

 

I'm not sure really applies when you have a huge contract ($10 million+), then Griffey would be walking away from a lot more money from the White Sox (and Reds with some money coming to us) than he would have a prayer of getting from any other team.

[eickevinmorris]

Cabrera will sign before the deadline. It won't be an issue.

[R.J.]

I don't think we'd even get any compensation for Crede if he signs elsewhere, so it doesn't matter.

 

Uribe would likely accept and get around $6 million, so we'll likely decline. Griffey would likely accept too, so same story. It's a no brainer to offer Cabrera arbitration because there's no way he'd accept it on the eve of his last big free agent contract.

[DBAHO]

I'd say yes on OC.

 

My guess is the Dodgers sign him as a replacement to Furcal, and use either him or Pierre as a leadoff hitter.

 

Uribe is not as clear cut. I'd say no, simply because we've acquired Betemit to be the utility guy to replace him.

[Chisoxfn]

I'd say yes on OC, but I Doubt they do it with Uribe. THey would have had they not already acquired Betemeit. Kind of stinks because it now means they are only going to get draft pick compensation for one player, OC, as opposed to potentially two (Uribe & OC). Griffey obviously won't get arbitration offered to him.

[That funky motion]

When is the deadline to offer?

[Balta1701]

When is the deadline to offer?

Dec 1.

 

Last year, Uribe was valuable enough to the Sox as a backup that he justified the couple million he earned. You'd be stupid not to offer arbitration to both. If you offer Uribe arbitration, another team can sign him and they still don't lose a pick.

[Hatchetman]

KW has given away many compensation picks in the past, so it wouldn't surprise me if he didn't offer arb to OC. Although nowadays fans and the media are a little more aware of what is going on.

 

just off the top of my head, he signed sandy alomar before the arb deadline when no one else wanted him. he traded ray durham for the absolutely worthless non-prospect jon adkins. didn't offer arb to riske. there are others but i'm old and i forget.

[G&T]

I'm not sure really applies when you have a huge contract ($10 million+), then Griffey would be walking away from a lot more money from the White Sox (and Reds with some money coming to us) than he would have a prayer of getting from any other team.

 

That's the players' union's business, but Selig wouldn't care and the CBA doesn't prevent it. But, you may be right, in that Griffey may not want to take the heat for turning that deal down.

Edited November 25, 2008 by G&T

[BearSox]

I'd offer it to both. There's no way Cabrera's gonna come back to us and he is still desirable to many teams lacking a SS.

 

As for Uribe, offering him arb. really won't shy away any possible suitors for him as he is only type B. Worst case scenario is that he accepts and we keep him on as a backup at SS or trade him if there are any takers.

[santo=dorf]

Dec 1.

 

Last year, Uribe was valuable enough to the Sox as a backup that he justified the couple million he earned. You'd be stupid not to offer arbitration to both. If you offer Uribe arbitration, another team can sign him and they still don't lose a pick.

What couple of million? He made $4.5 million and if he's offered arbitration he'll ask for $5.5 million. That's way too much for a defensive sub with some HR pop.

[bschmaranz]

What couple of million? He made $4.5 million and if he's offered arbitration he'll ask for $5.5 million. That's way too much for a defensive sub with some HR pop.

 

I'm gonna agree with that. I wouldn't mind seeing Juan come back next season, but offering him arbitration could wind up quite costly. I think he'd wind up accepting it.

[caulfield12]

I'm gonna agree with that. I wouldn't mind seeing Juan come back next season, but offering him arbitration could wind up quite costly. I think he'd wind up accepting it.

 

The players win something like 80% of the cases, even a "loss" is usually a "win," and the fact that Juan was so integral to the White Sox when Crede went down in the stretch will be used as a gambit by his agent to argue that he should continue to be paid as a starter...not a utility man who will get 150-200 ab's at most. That and the fact that he started off as the team's 2B and is also the team's best defensively shortstop now...that Ramirez moving to SS might fail and they would have to play Juan again there as the starter.

[southsider2k5]

What couple of million? He made $4.5 million and if he's offered arbitration he'll ask for $5.5 million. That's way too much for a defensive sub with some HR pop.

 

At very worst, we can offer a 20% paycut, to $3.6 million, in which case we would pretty much be a cinch to lose the case. We are most likely looking at around $5 million realistically.

[Dick Allen]

I read an article on how arbitrators come to their decisions. Say the White Sox offered Uribe $4 million and Juan asked for $5,999,999. The arbitrator decides which figure is closer to the players worth. If he or she came to the conclusion that Uribe was a $5 million a year guy, he would get $5,999,999. If he thought he was a $4,999,999 guy, he would get $4 million. Because of this system, teams almost always have to offer a raise even if the player doesn't earn it. Cabrera will make more money in 2009 if he took arbitration than he will on the open market. While you wouldn't think he would take arbitration, there's always the possibility he thinks conditions will be better next year and take the Sox up on it. That's probably $11 or $12 million you will pay to someone you consider a cancer for a season just to gain late first round draft picks. If he's not signed by someone before the deadline, I think the White Sox will decline arb for him.

[caulfield12]

I read an article on how arbitrators come to their decisions. Say the White Sox offered Uribe $4 million and Juan asked for $5,999,999. The arbitrator decides which figure is closer to the players worth. If he or she came to the conclusion that Uribe was a $5 million a year guy, he would get $5,999,999. If he thought he was a $4,999,999 guy, he would get $4 million. Because of this system, teams almost always have to offer a raise even if the player doesn't earn it. Cabrera will make more money in 2009 if he took arbitration than he will on the open market. While you wouldn't think he would take arbitration, there's always the possibility he thinks conditions will be better next year and take the Sox up on it. That's probably $11 or $12 million you will pay to someone you consider a cancer for a season just to gain late first round draft picks. If he's not signed by someone before the deadline, I think the White Sox will decline arb for him.

 

 

I don't know...look at it from the White Sox standpoint. They could easily offer him arbitration, then automatically try to cut him down to $8-9 million. Let's say they surprised the world and offered $10 million or higher...it's not clear that Cabrera would win his case. I don't know, maybe he'll ask for $11-12.5 million per season, that's fairly realistic I suppose....but, for one, he's going to have to go through a very contentious arbitration proceeding, and all of the truly ugly things from 2008 are going to come out (and many we don't know about that were kept under wraps). Do you think he would want to go through that? MAYBE.

 

Then you figure Furcal, at a similar age and coming off two-injured plagued seasons, is going to get something like 3 years and $39 million or 4 years and $40-45 million...I think at his age, Cabrera realizes it would be more intelligent to get the security of a 2-4 year deal than taking a risk with just a one year contract when he could get injured or any number of things could happen to lower his value going forward. The odds are very much against him significantly raising his value in 2009. You get what you pay for with Cabrera, just like Vazquez, warts and all.

 

I just think a team like the Giants, A's (whoever loses out on Furcal), Dodgers, Twins, Tigers, Cardinals...well, there are quite a few teams out there looking for a SS, and he's the second or third best option. There might even be some teams that prefer the certainty of Cabrera at $10 million for 2-3 seasons over the larger risk, larger possible return of a Rafael Furcal signing. At least you mitigate your downside, arguably, by signing O-Cab.

 

For these reasons, I think KW calls the bluff and goes for the arbitration offer, feeling pretty darned certain (95% chance) that Cabrera and his agent won't accept it.

Edited November 26, 2008 by caulfield12

[quickman]

I don't know...look at it from the White Sox standpoint. They could easily offer him arbitration, then automatically try to cut him down to $8-9 million. Let's say they surprised the world and offered $10 million or higher...it's not clear that Cabrera would win his case. I don't know, maybe he'll ask for $11-12.5 million per season, that's fairly realistic I suppose....but, for one, he's going to have to go through a very contentious arbitration proceeding, and all of the truly ugly things from 2008 are going to come out (and many we don't know about that were kept under wraps). Do you think he would want to go through that? MAYBE.

 

Then you figure Furcal, at a similar age and coming off two-injured plagued seasons, is going to get something like 3 years and $39 million or 4 years and $40-45 million...I think at his age, Cabrera realizes it would be more intelligent to get the security of a 2-4 year deal than taking a risk with just a one year contract when he could get injured or any number of things could happen to lower his value going forward. The odds are very much against him significantly raising his value in 2009. You get what you pay for with Cabrera, just like Vazquez, warts and all.

 

I just think a team like the Giants, A's (whoever loses out on Furcal), Dodgers, Twins, Tigers, Cardinals...well, there are quite a few teams out there looking for a SS, and he's the second or third best option. There might even be some teams that prefer the certainty of Cabrera at $10 million for 2-3 seasons over the larger risk, larger possible return of a Rafael Furcal signing. At least you mitigate your downside, arguably, by signing O-Cab.

 

For these reasons, I think KW calls the bluff and goes for the arbitration offer, feeling pretty darned certain (95% chance) that Cabrera and his agent won't accept it.

 

 

I completely agree on cabrera , no way he wants to stay with the sox. Offer it up, he will not take it.

[GoodAsGould]

I think Cabrera gets a bad rap here that he doesnt really deserve. I personally dont know any of the ballplayers or have an inside source but atleast from looking at the clubhouse in games he seemed to fit well with the rest of the team. Yeah he had some questionable things like complaining about the error, but I think as a whole he was well liked by the team.

 

 

Now if someone who is close to people on the sox or in the clubhouse says otherwise, but most of you seemingly are just assuming he is a cancer because of a few articles in the newspapers, some that werent even that bad.

[caulfield12]

I think Cabrera gets a bad rap here that he doesnt really deserve. I personally dont know any of the ballplayers or have an inside source but atleast from looking at the clubhouse in games he seemed to fit well with the rest of the team. Yeah he had some questionable things like complaining about the error, but I think as a whole he was well liked by the team.

 

 

Now if someone who is close to people on the sox or in the clubhouse says otherwise, but most of you seemingly are just assuming he is a cancer because of a few articles in the newspapers, some that werent even that bad.

 

 

There were a couple of times he was stealing 3rd base in very questionable situation with Dye at the plate...one time, Dye had to be physically restrained from going after him. When there's smoke, there's fire. There were just too many times that Ozzie left Cabrera hung out to dry in the media instead of backing him up. Also, the whole thing of leaving every night from the ballpark and NEVER taking questions from reporters. That's another form of selfishness, especially after losses which he has a hand in. Quentin absolutely HATES dealing with the media, but he still manages it and always is classy in his responses.

[harfman77]

You have to offer arbitration to both and take the chance, if they accept than you can trade them for other pieces. All those teams that would be interested in OC in the free agent market would be interested in him for a trade, even more so in the case of the Dodgers who are trying to bide time until one of their prospects are ready. Uribe can be moved for a project player to the likes of Jon Link that may be something or nothing. Either way if either player would accept arb there is no way they will be on the Sox next Spring.

[caulfield12]

I would agree about trading them (but maybe not Uribe)...they would be more attractive if teams didn't have to give up compensation for O-Cab. In some ways, KW has always done better with trades than he has with the draft picks...of course, some will blame that on Shaffer and Wilder, et al. However, KW was still responsible for giving the "okay" on those first rounders like Ring, Honel (to a lesser extent), McCulloch and Broadway that were so questionable.

 

I'm just not sure about finding a market for Uribe...we are bi-polar about him and Vazquez here. To some, he's an underappreciated asset that would/should be starting on at least 5 other clubs as a SS. To others, he's a strikeout prone, low OBP, low contact hitter with weight/motivation issues who doesn't deserve in the vicinity of $5 million as a bench/supersub type of player.

 

I think the risk of getting stuck with Uribe is at least 50/50. With Cabrera, much lower...and also, his having a "decent/affordable" one year contract (compared to paying Furcal 3-4 years at $39-45 million at roughly the same age and with more of a recent injury history) would also be an attractive enticement to many teams like the Giants who are even looking at Renteria as a starter.

Edited November 27, 2008 by caulfield12

[bighurt4life]

You absolutely have to offer arb to Cabrera. It would be silly not to. Considering the teams looking for a SS we probably end up with a first round pick and a sandwich. Getting an extra first rounder is just money in the bank. You can't go wrong with it. Also, there's almost zero chance that Cabrera would accept it. He's gunning for one last big contract, if he takes arbitration then he risks an injury this coming year and loses big time bucks. All things being equal, he'll probably get a 3-5 year deal worth about 10mil per. That sounds a hell of a lot better than a one year deal for 10 mil.