Dye to Reds Speculation

[caulfield12]

But a major-league source said Sunday any deal involving right fielder Jermaine Dye and Cincinnati is complicated by financial matters.

 

Dye, who has hit 137 home runs in the last four years, will earn $11.5 million in 2009, with a mutual option for $12 million in 2010 that includes a $1 million buyout.

 

Reds general manager Walt Jocketty confirmed to the Cincinnati Enquirer that he had talked to the Sox about "some players, but nothing is close."

 

The teams appear to be a match because the Reds are looking for a right-handed hitter to go with young left-handed hitters Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, and the Reds have a wealth of talented pitchers, including Homer Bailey, Josh Roenicke and Matt Maloney.

 

mark gonzales, tribune

 

 

[eickevinmorris]

This article is a great example of why the pure statistical approach misses on a great game. There is a reason Edwin Jackson is clutch, and that is because of his stuff. Put fairly simply, it is hard to center up and hit his pitches. Its not like he has anything that is straight which he is throwing up to home plate. It would be different if he has a mediocre fastball, or ordinary slider, but he doesn't. Looking at those numbers doesn't tell that story. I know you can't just look at this stuff either, and proclaim him one of the best starters in the game, but you can't completely ignore it either.

If that's the case, he should have posted similar numbers in 2007. He didn't. Most likely, this is not a repeatable skill and his affinity for allowing base runners will prevent him from being a special pitcher.

[southsider2k5]

If that's the case, he should have posted similar numbers in 2007. He didn't. Most likely, this is not a repeatable skill and his affinity for allowing base runners will prevent him from being a special pitcher.

 

He was also 23 years old a year ago, and 24 years old this year. 2007 was his first full year as a major league starter. Its not like he is putting up these numbers at 30, or even 27. Jackson is still learning on the job.

 

And actually a great example of this is Randy Johnson. Go back and look at his numbers at a similar age.

 

At 27 years old in 1991 he walked 152 guys while giving up 151 hits! His WHIP was over 1.50, yet his era was 3.98. The next year at 28 years old he still walked 144, while giving up 154 hits coming in with a whip of 1.42 and an era of 3.77. That 1991 season was after logging over 500 innings at the major league level. Going into 2007, Jackson had logged about 100.

 

Was he lucky? Did it prevent Johnson from becoming a special pitcher? No, because he had the arm to pitch over that. Not to mention, as he got more major league innings underneath him, he mastered his release point and repeatability of his delivery.

[harfman77]

Regardless, there is no way you give up Jenks for 2 fifth starters. If you are trading Jenks, you need to get better quality in return than some teams throw aways. If TB wants to dump Jackson to avoid paying arb, than you low ball them and offer them minor leaguers, giving up Jenks is overpaying. Obviously TB isnt all that sold on him if there are willing to let him go and not sign him to a long term deal like they have with some of their other young arb eligible players.

[caulfield12]

Regardless, there is no way you give up Jenks for 2 fifth starters. If you are trading Jenks, you need to get better quality in return than some teams throw aways. If TB wants to dump Jackson to avoid paying arb, than you low ball them and offer them minor leaguers, giving up Jenks is overpaying. Obviously TB isnt all that sold on him if there are willing to let him go and not sign him to a long term deal like they have with some of their other young arb eligible players.

 

 

Not quite so simple. Jackson has the ability to be a 2-3 starter on most MLB teams, even an ace if he puts it all together.

 

Just because he was behind Sonnanstine (who made about $390,000) and Shields doesn't mean he's garbage, far from it. It's just that TB has financial constraints, and they already anticipate having to pay Shields and Garza soon enough, and Kazmir is already starting to make a lot of money. More importantly, they have to move Price into the rotation as well.

 

If you're the Rays, there's a clear reason financially to keep Sonnanstine, even though the risk of Jackson becoming a star somewhere is much greater. Not to mention the fact that KW wouldn't consider someone with limited future upside potential as Sonnanstine, he would only take someone like Jackson or Wade Davis, not McGee (injured?) or Niemann or someone like that.

 

It's all about "ceiling" and not where he is now....Gavin Floyd wasn't even worthy of being a part of Philly's rotation when we picked him up, yet he's now #3 with us.

 

Second, Jenks isn't going to fetch as big a return as everyone thinks with so many other closers on the market and the many "con's" for teams acquiring him.

 

Third, TB is already loaded with pitching prospects, we don't have anything to offer them besides Poreda in that area, or maybe Richard. They already have Howell to do what Richard does, so that's kind of a no-go. I'm not sure what they need that we can give them besides Dye, and Viciedo is too raw and inexperienced for them to put him in RF (not that KW would dream of trading him yet). Beyond that, would they really want Brandon Allen or Shelby. It simply has to be Dye or Jenks or any deal would be off the table.

 

 

[harfman77]

Not quite so simple. Jackson has the ability to be a 2-3 starter on most MLB teams, even an ace if he puts it all together.

 

Just because he was behind Sonnanstine (who made about $390,000) and Shields doesn't mean he's garbage, far from it. It's just that TB has financial constraints, and they already anticipate having to pay Shields and Garza soon enough, and Kazmir is already starting to make a lot of money. More importantly, they have to move Price into the rotation as well.

 

If you're the Rays, there's a clear reason financially to keep Sonnanstine, even though the risk of Jackson becoming a star somewhere is much greater. Not to mention the fact that KW wouldn't consider someone with limited future upside potential as Sonnanstine, he would only take someone like Jackson or Wade Davis, not McGee (injured?) or Niemann or someone like that.

 

It's all about "ceiling" and not where he is now....Gavin Floyd wasn't even worthy of being a part of Philly's rotation when we picked him up, yet he's now #3 with us.

 

Second, Jenks isn't going to fetch as big a return as everyone thinks with so many other closers on the market and the many "con's" for teams acquiring him.

 

Third, TB is already loaded with pitching prospects, we don't have anything to offer them besides Poreda in that area, or maybe Richard. They already have Howell to do what Richard does, so that's kind of a no-go. I'm not sure what they need that we can give them besides Dye, and Viciedo is too raw and inexperienced for them to put him in RF (not that KW would dream of trading him yet). Beyond that, would they really want Brandon Allen or Shelby. It simply has to be Dye or Jenks or any deal would be off the table.

 

Then the deal is off the table, you are essentially trading an Ace for a guy who might eventually be able to put things together. They would need to throw in a lot more than just Niemann to get a bite on either of those players. Dye has put up close to MVP numbers 2 of the last three seasons, Jenks has one of the best save conversion % in the last two seasons. Jackson is not worth either of those players even if you include a B prospect like Niemann. People here dicsount too much the value of Sox players and run up the value on people like Jackson. Jenks is more attractive than the options on the FA market because he is cheap and still under team control. He is a steal when K-Rod is going to get more than $16MM/per and Fuentes likely close to 12. If you are dealing Dye for a SP, Bailey has more ceiling at this point, and a lower floor which will allow you to get another quality player in return.

[caulfield12]

Just because Fuentes is asking for $12 million doesn't mean he'll get it. Look at Affeldt's much more reasonable contract. I think he will be quite lucky to get $10 million, but maybe it will be less. Rodriguez will be fortunate to get $45 million and 3 years. It's too big a risk for a closer who has so much wear and tear...everyone remembers what happened to Thigpen after his huge save season.

 

 

[EvilJester99]

Hubner said on the update for the Score that money seems to be holding this deal up....TIFWIW

[R.J.]

I think Dye, even at his age and with his defense declining, is definitely worth $11.5 million to a contender. The problem is that the Reds, despite their booming confidence, can't spend like contenders.

[ThunderBolt]

Jocketty’s a decent GM. If he thinks Dye’s the guy his team needs to succeeds there’s no money problem in the world big enough to prevent him from getting him

[BaseballNick]

Jocketty’s a decent GM. If he thinks Dye’s the guy his team needs to succeeds there’s no money problem in the world big enough to prevent him from getting him

 

Jocketty being a good GM has nothing to do with Jermaine Dye's contract being affordable to the Reds ownership. If KW is asking for too much, or won't take on any of JD's salary (which is something the White Sox are in no position to do) then maybe the Sox and Reds aren't good trading partners.

[Chisoxfn]

Interesting...the Sox never send cash in a deal but if they did I would expect to receive something else in return. Do the Reds have anyone of interest with a few mill contract that could be included? Maybe a backup catcher.

[Balta1701]

Interesting...the Sox never send cash in a deal but if they did I would expect to receive something else in return. Do the Reds have anyone of interest with a few mill contract that could be included? Maybe a backup catcher.

The Reds just signed Ben Davis to a minor league deal....

 

Anyway, right now the Reds are probably actually looking for a catcher of their own, but they have a right handed hitting C (Ryan Hanigan) and a Switch hitting C (Wilkin Castillo) both of whom are probably backup-level C's.

[DBAHO]

Considering the Reds lost Affledt and they're probably gonna lose Weathers, I wonder if they'd be interested in any of our relievers?

[Dick Allen]

The Reds just signed Ben Davis to a minor league deal....

 

As a pitcher.

 

[ThunderBolt]

Jocketty being a good GM has nothing to do with Jermaine Dye's contract being affordable to the Reds ownership. If KW is asking for too much, or won't take on any of JD's salary (which is something the White Sox are in no position to do) then maybe the Sox and Reds aren't good trading partners.

Unless there’s something I’m not seeing the money issue doesn’t appear to overly significant. The Reds have a modest budget, that’s all but certain to grow in the next couple years with the emergence of their young players. I’m not saying that money isn’t at play here, I just think that it won’t be a deal breaker in this situation. Dye’s salary is large, but it wouldn’t be ridiculous for a franchise like the Reds to take a good portion of it on, and not suffer for it. I’d be interested in hearing more specifics on the money situation that Gonzalez mentioned. Also, what I meant by Jocketty was not that he’s some money wizard, but rather he’s pretty decent at surmounting financial difficulties, and getting a good deal out of it.

[BaseballNick]

Unless there’s something I’m not seeing the money issue doesn’t appear to overly significant. The Reds have a modest budget, that’s all but certain to grow in the next couple years with the emergence of their young players. I’m not saying that money isn’t at play here, I just think that it won’t be a deal breaker in this situation. Dye’s salary is large, but it wouldn’t be ridiculous for a franchise like the Reds to take a good portion of it on, and not suffer for it. I’d be interested in hearing more specifics on the money situation that Gonzalez mentioned. Also, what I meant by Jocketty was not that he’s some money wizard, but rather he’s pretty decent at surmounting financial difficulties, and getting a good deal out of it.

 

$11.5mil doesn't seem like a whole lot for the numbers JD has been putting up, but you can't ignore today's economy. Attendance numbers are going to be down, so asking a mid market team to add anything to their payroll is probably asking too much. From what I gather, their expiring contracts aren't enough to take on JD's $11.5mil for 2009, so something else is going to have to give if the deal is to get done.

 

[harfman77]

The Reds cleared quite a bit of salary dumping Jr and Dunn this year, I think Arroyo and Harang's contracts are each increasing, but they should have some room to work with. Bu they may be thinking they can add JD cheap and then go after another FA outfielder as well and want to save room to do so.

[scenario]

Unless there’s something I’m not seeing the money issue doesn’t appear to overly significant. The Reds have a modest budget, that’s all but certain to grow in the next couple years with the emergence of their young players. I’m not saying that money isn’t at play here, I just think that it won’t be a deal breaker in this situation. Dye’s salary is large, but it wouldn’t be ridiculous for a franchise like the Reds to take a good portion of it on, and not suffer for it. I’d be interested in hearing more specifics on the money situation that Gonzalez mentioned. Also, what I meant by Jocketty was not that he’s some money wizard, but rather he’s pretty decent at surmounting financial difficulties, and getting a good deal out of it.

 

I'm guessing the "money issue" is a negotiation tactic. Sounds like another way of saying... "If you want better prospects, then we want you to eat some of Dye's salary."

[Steve9347]

I'm guessing the "money issue" is a negotiation tactic. Sounds like another way of saying... "If you want better prospects, then we want you to eat some of Dye's salary."

Jerry Reinsdorf: "F*** THAT!"

[Chisoxfn]

As a pitcher.

Really, he's making the switch?

[DukeNukeEm]

Dye to CIN for Bailey, Freel, low-level upside prospect (I think it's probably more realistic than Bailey + Dickerson)

 

Jenks + maybe mid-level prospect/spare part reliever to TB for Edwin Jackson + Jeff Niemann

 

Vazquez to Atlanta for one MLB-ready or very close to MLB-ready prospect PLUS a prospect who isn't that far away, probably one OF and one pitcher, like:

JoJo Reyes/Charlie Morton/Gregor Blanco/Jordan Schafer + Cole Rohrbough/Gorkys Hernandez/Jeff Locke

 

Hanson and Heyward should definitely be off the table

 

That's a really bad plan. You're taking on a lot of reclamation projects and risky prospects at the expense of 3 pretty good (and proven) MLB veterans. I'm down for trading one of Dye/Jenks/Vazquez to a projection player, but all three for a batch of prospect is ridiculous. Especially now that we have Beckham, Viciedo and Poreda as a very solid top 3 in our farm system.

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Dye's value just went down.

 

Abreu, Burrell, and Dunn will not cost draft picks. Ouch. I hope none of these guys were in the Reds plans and we can still get Bailey and whatnot.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

That's a really bad plan. You're taking on a lot of reclamation projects and risky prospects at the expense of 3 pretty good (and proven) MLB veterans. I'm down for trading one of Dye/Jenks/Vazquez to a projection player, but all three for a batch of prospect is ridiculous. Especially now that we have Beckham, Viciedo and Poreda as a very solid top 3 in our farm system.

Not if we get a very good young player out of it and use the savings elsewhere. I wouldn't lump Poreda on with Beckham until he shows the repertoire to start, and we haven't seen Viciedo play yet. If you're going to suggest the futures of the prospects we'd acquire are up in the air, then you have to say the exact same things about our guys.

[Chisoxfn]

That makes all of those guys very interesting candidates to pick-up if we get rid of a few guys. I still think Abreu could end up being an attractive #2 hitter.