Dye to Reds Speculation

[eickevinmorris]

Yes, hate. Seems like whenever his name is mentioned somebody goes off about how awful he is or how he sucks or whatever. The dude is like 25. Damn.

Yes, people flip out because there's no reason to believe he's a special pitcher. He's been bad to mediocre (at best!) in his two years with Tampa. If we target him in a deal, we are making a mistake.

[whitesoxfan101]

I would just like to say for the record that I hate this deal. I saw almost every one of Bailey's starts last year, and his velocity was nowhere near the levels I had heard it was when he pitched in the minors. Unless we have some sort of info that Bailey was pitching hurt last season, count me out on this deal.

Edited December 3, 2008 by whitesoxfan101

[fathom]

I would just like to say for the record that I hate this deal. I saw almost every one of Bailey's start last year, and his velocity was nowhere near the levels I had heard it was when he pitched in the minors. Unless we have some sort of info that Bailey was pitching hurt last season, count me out on this deal.

 

Yep, I think a lot of people clamoring for this deal have bought into the hype with Bailey and haven't actually seen him pitch before.

[whitesoxfan101]

Yep, I think a lot of people clamoring for this deal have bought into the hype with Bailey and haven't actually seen him pitch before.

 

I was baffled at some of the comments in this thread. When I heard this trade rumor, I panicked. Bailey was throwing in the low 90's with his fastball last season and his offspeed stuff was completely flat. If that's all we can get for Jermaine Dye, then this market sucks.

[whitesoxfan101]

It's not, and if Dye is really traded for Bailey, Williams just f***ed himself. The backlash from fans alone would be incredible.

 

Well forget the fans, he will have f***ed himself because it will have been perhaps his worst trade as our GM. You can't take a chip like Dye and trade him for Homer freaking Bailey. Have to get much more value in return than that, and I'm just confused that anybody would have any reaction to this rumor other than panic that our GM would even consider such a foolish move.

[whitesoxfan101]

The fans are just one aspect. I'm not even going to go into the baseball aspect, as it's fairly obvious how terrible of a deal it would be.

 

Nah I know what you mean, trading one of your most popular players and the former World Series MVP for a flameout former pitching prospect would be a PR disaster.

[max power]

Lets all get pissed off and swear about hypothetical situations.

Edited December 3, 2008 by MAX

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Yes, hate. Seems like whenever his name is mentioned somebody goes off about how awful he is or how he sucks or whatever. The dude is like 25. Damn.

Yeah, a 19-year-old when he debuted and who used to be one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and he spent his second full season as a starter in the Major Leagues on a team that went to the WS... and he was 24.

 

The hate is ridiculous and the luck "argument" isn't even an argument, it's a cop-out. Bringing luck into a discussion is basically saying "I have nothing intelligent to say, but I'm going to post anyway."

 

It seems like most of the guys who go from the pedigree of Edwin Jackson to guys that "suck" in the minds of fans, it is because of some major surgery that causes the pitcher to lose the stuff that made him so highly regarded. In Jackson's case, the stuff is still there. The problem has been control, and he has done nothing at all but improve in that area.

 

Jackson had a horrible September last year, as a 24-year-old once again. Prior to that, Jackson's numbers were:

 

26 GS, 156 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

 

He finished with...

 

32 GS, 183.3 IP, 4.42 ERA (above the league average of 4.44), 1.51 WHIP

 

And his peripherals have all improved. Anyone who thinks Jackson sucks is just plain ignorant of his age, his pedigree, his stuff, his improvement, and most importantly, the TB Rays organization as a whole. Why in the f*** would an organization with McGee, Davis, Price, Niemann, Hellickson, etc. have them all in the minor leagues if Edwin Jackson sucked? Use your head. The guy has serious talent and has shown nothing but growth in the Major Leagues.

Edited December 3, 2008 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[ThunderBolt]

Nah I know what you mean, trading one of your most popular players and the former World Series MVP for a flameout former pitching prospect would be a PR disaster.

What do you say we give up Floyd and Danks, Thome and get back Mcarthy and Garcia, and Rowand? Those guys were pretty important in the run to the World Series too. A GM can't base any descion on PR or loyalty. Homer Bailey is 22, ballplayers usually peak at 27 just two years ago he was the next big thing, he has a few years to go before he can be ruled a former pitching prospect.

[whitesoxfan101]

What do you say we give up Floyd and Danks, Thome and get back Mcarthy and Garcia, and Rowand? Those guys were pretty important in the run to the World Series too. A GM can't base any descion on PR or loyalty. Homer Bailey is 22, ballplayers usually peak at 27 just two years ago he was the next big thing, he has a few years to go before he can be ruled a former pitching prospect.

 

It has nothing to do with loyalty, it has to do with the fact that Homer Bailey was a vastly overrated pitching prospect who couldn't get above 92 on the radar gun last year, had flat offspeed stuff, and couldn't get anybody out. To trade Jermaine Dye for him would be simply stupid.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I would just like to say for the record that I hate this deal. I saw almost every one of Bailey's starts last year, and his velocity was nowhere near the levels I had heard it was when he pitched in the minors. Unless we have some sort of info that Bailey was pitching hurt last season, count me out on this deal.

FWIW, I read some posts on a Reds board that was linked to here, and someone over there was saying the Reds took away his FB for much of the year to concentrate on his offspeed stuff. Also I read that his velocity was back up at the end of the year and he was sitting in the mid-90's with his FB. I have no idea why his velocity would have been down on his FB earlier, unless he was trying to do something different with the pitch, but I imagine that if there were any problems whatsoever Bailey would have been shut down immediately. Instead he made 27 starts combined for Triple A Lousiville and the Reds.

[SoxFan1]

FWIW, I read some posts on a Reds board that was linked to here, and someone over there was saying the Reds took away his FB for much of the year to concentrate on his offspeed stuff. Also I read that his velocity was back up at the end of the year and he was sitting in the mid-90's with his FB. I have no idea why his velocity would have been down on his FB earlier, unless he was trying to do something different with the pitch, but I imagine that if there were any problems whatsoever Bailey would have been shut down immediately. Instead he made 27 starts combined for Triple A Lousiville and the Reds.

You can also consider TV radar guns. Seems like CSN/WGN are always a tad slow, where as Fox has everyone throwing 95+ so who knows. Plus, Dusty Baker was his manager.

[eickevinmorris]

Yeah, a 19-year-old when he debuted and who used to be one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and he spent his second full season as a starter in the Major Leagues on a team that went to the WS... and he was 24.

 

The hate is ridiculous and the luck "argument" isn't even an argument, it's a cop-out. Bringing luck into a discussion is basically saying "I have nothing intelligent to say, but I'm going to post anyway."

 

It seems like most of the guys who go from the pedigree of Edwin Jackson to guys that "suck" in the minds of fans, it is because of some major surgery that causes the pitcher to lose the stuff that made him so highly regarded. In Jackson's case, the stuff is still there. The problem has been control, and he has done nothing at all but improve in that area.

 

Jackson had a horrible September last year, as a 24-year-old once again. Prior to that, Jackson's numbers were:

 

26 GS, 156 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

 

He finished with...

 

32 GS, 183.3 IP, 4.42 ERA (above the league average of 4.44), 1.51 WHIP

 

And his peripherals have all improved. Anyone who thinks Jackson sucks is just plain ignorant of his age, his pedigree, his stuff, his improvement, and most importantly, the TB Rays organization as a whole. Why in the f*** would an organization with McGee, Davis, Price, Niemann, Hellickson, etc. have them all in the minor leagues if Edwin Jackson sucked? Use your head. The guy has serious talent and has shown nothing but growth in the Major Leagues.

Please, explain to me how luck doesn't exist in evaluating a pitcher. How can he be so fantastic with guys on base, but so awful with the bases empty? It's not a matter of clutchness, or holding something back until it matters most (in which case, please do me a favor and find some evidence of this), it's a matters of his peripherals showing his extreme luck. He may have stuff, but his command is terrible, as evidenced by his Jon Garland-esque strikeout rates.

[whitesoxfan101]

FWIW, I read some posts on a Reds board that was linked to here, and someone over there was saying the Reds took away his FB for much of the year to concentrate on his offspeed stuff. Also I read that his velocity was back up at the end of the year and he was sitting in the mid-90's with his FB. I have no idea why his velocity would have been down on his FB earlier, unless he was trying to do something different with the pitch, but I imagine that if there were any problems whatsoever Bailey would have been shut down immediately. Instead he made 27 starts combined for Triple A Lousiville and the Reds.

 

That's why I hate this deal. His velocity wasn't there and he was clearly healthy enough to pitch because they'd have shut him down otherwise. FWIW I saw him in person twice last year, once earlier in the season and once later on, and he looked equally atrocious stuffwise both times.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Please, explain to me how luck doesn't exist in evaluating a pitcher. How can he be so fantastic with guys on base, but so awful with the bases empty? It's not a matter of clutchness, or holding something back until it matters most (in which case, please do me a favor and find some evidence of this), it's a matters of his peripherals showing his extreme luck. He may have stuff, but his command is terrible, as evidenced by his Jon Garland-esque strikeout rates.

I'll say this one time, but I know you won't get it because you can't get the idea that luck is not a factor in anything.

 

Edwin Jackson has command problems. These control problems are the result of Edwin Jackson having trouble getting in a groove and consistently repeating his delivery. The chances are his command will improve deeper into innings and deeper into games. Had you bothered to look at the actual numbers instead of reading an article written by a soothsayer with a passing interest in team sports, you'd see him for what he is and you would not suggest luck. Luck is not a factor. When you throw in the high-90's and have a devastating slider, you are not lucky to retire Major League hitters.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/pspli...1&year=2008

 

These are his splits. See how opponents hit .341/.412/.538 against him during the first 25 pitches? See how that, as the game goes on, the opposition actually hits worse against him the second and third times through the lineup when they've actually seen more of him? Or how when you look at walks with a certain number of outs, that he actually walks 1/3 less players with 2 out than 0 or 1 out? Even better, just look at his gamelog. The guy has had 6 very bad starts which have hurt his overall numbers. Otherwise he is very, very good. The improvements in his peripherals strongly suggest that he is repeating his delivery more.

 

In short, there are probably a thousand things you can talk about. Luck is not one of them and it never will be one of them.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

That's why I hate this deal. His velocity wasn't there and he was clearly healthy enough to pitch because they'd have shut him down otherwise. FWIW I saw him in person twice last year, once earlier in the season and once later on, and he looked equally atrocious stuffwise both times.

That sucks. I've only seen video on the guy. I guess I'd just put faith in the Sox staff. He'd have to take a full physical to come here so I'm sure if there was anything all that major it would pop up - I can't imagine the Sox letting this go through without getting a look at everything they possibly can. Then again, I still wonder how in the world we were able to send Freddy to the Phils after '06 with a physical. I'd have my worries too, but he's one of those guys that if he can keep his FB in the mid-90's and find that curveball again, he could help us a whole lot for the next 6-7 years.

[Kalapse]

That sucks. I've only seen video on the guy. I guess I'd just put faith in the Sox staff. He'd have to take a full physical to come here so I'm sure if there was anything all that major it would pop up - I can't imagine the Sox letting this go through without getting a look at everything they possibly can. Then again, I still wonder how in the world we were able to send Freddy to the Phils after '06 with a physical. I'd have my worries too, but he's one of those guys that if he can keep his FB in the mid-90's and find that curveball again, he could help us a whole lot for the next 6-7 years.

Freddy Garcia never took a physical.

[eickevinmorris]

I'll say this one time, but I know you won't get it because you can't get the idea that luck is not a factor in anything.

 

Edwin Jackson has command problems. These control problems are the result of Edwin Jackson having trouble getting in a groove and consistently repeating his delivery. The chances are his command will improve deeper into innings and deeper into games. Had you bothered to look at the actual numbers instead of reading an article written by a soothsayer with a passing interest in team sports, you'd see him for what he is and you would not suggest luck. Luck is not a factor. When you throw in the high-90's and have a devastating slider, you are not lucky to retire Major League hitters.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/pspli...1&year=2008

 

These are his splits. See how opponents hit .341/.412/.538 against him during the first 25 pitches? See how that, as the game goes on, the opposition actually hits worse against him the second and third times through the lineup when they've actually seen more of him? Or how when you look at walks with a certain number of outs, that he actually walks 1/3 less players with 2 out than 0 or 1 out? Even better, just look at his gamelog. The guy has had 6 very bad starts which have hurt his overall numbers. Otherwise he is very, very good. The improvements in his peripherals strongly suggest that he is repeating his delivery more.

 

In short, there are probably a thousand things you can talk about. Luck is not one of them and it never will be one of them.

Wrong. So, so, so wrong. Luck is very important in evaluating a pitcher. A pitcher can control walks, strikeouts, and HR. Other than that, it is up to his defense. Lucky for Edwin, he was on a fantastic defensive team this season. With a bad defense, he's in trouble, considering how many guys he puts on base and his complete and utter inability to strike guys out. His peripherals are not impressive, and it's pretty clear he has a future in the bullpen.

[SoxFan1]

A pitcher can control walks, strikeouts, and HR.

That is HIGHLY arguable. Pitchers definitely cannot control HR. If you groove one right down the middle and it's a ground out, how is it different from a hitter golfing a slider at his ankles over the LF fence?

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Wrong. So, so, so wrong. Luck is very important in evaluating a pitcher. A pitcher can control walks, strikeouts, and HR. Other than that, it is up to his defense. Lucky for Edwin, he was on a fantastic defensive team this season. With a bad defense, he's in trouble, considering how many guys he puts on base and his complete and utter inability to strike guys out. His peripherals are not impressive, and it's pretty clear he has a future in the bullpen.

LMAO

 

A pitcher can control where he throws the ball and how he throws it. Some pitchers have trouble keeping their body under control, but that is not because they are unlucky. If a pitcher can control the opposition hitting home runs, why do pitchers allow that stuff?

 

And BTW, if you've never seen a pitcher's pitch hit for a home run then you have never seen a very good hitter in action.

[whitesoxfan101]

Btw, the 2 games in saw him in person, again FWIW (both middle of the season, my bad with the memory):

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore;_ylt=...F?gid=280610117

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore;_ylt=...F?gid=280713108

 

He actually had a decent outing in one of the games, but I remember it well because he was hit hard all day, a lot of "at him balls". And I watched the gun close both games, never got above 92.

Edited December 3, 2008 by whitesoxfan101

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Btw, the 2 games in saw him in person, again FWIW (both middle of the season, my bad with the memory):

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore;_ylt=...F?gid=280610117

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore;_ylt=...F?gid=280713108

 

He actually had a decent outing in one of the games, but I remember it well because he was hit hard all day, a lot of "at him balls". And I watched the gun close both games, never got above 92.

Was he throwing mainly fastballs though? And was he trying to get ahead in the count with his breaking stuff and then only resorting to his FB when down in the count?

 

Just from the Reds board I read it seems there were a ton of changes made to his repertoire and how he was supposed to go about getting hitters out. They said the Reds pretty much took away his curve for his slider. I don't know what went on, and like I say I can't explain why he couldn't get above 92 for those starts and then supposedly sit 93-96 late in the year unless maybe he was trying out a different grip and trying to add some movement to his fastball.

 

There are a lot of concerns obviously about a guy who climbs the charts with an upper-90's FB that touches 100 but then doesn't hit 92. As long as he checks out medically though he could end up being another Floyd, in that he just needs a change of scenery to get some things out of his head and let his talent work for him. Let him throw the curveball again if he wants to and let him use his fastball more. Whatever the case is, if he checks out then I'd be fine with the move, although I would like at least another high-upside prospect out of the low minors to go in the deal. And, I'd still like another starter after just trading Javy. I'd like someone with some experience that I know, at least on paper, is a sure bet to step in the 4th slot of the rotation.

[eickevinmorris]

LMAO

 

A pitcher can control where he throws the ball and how he throws it. Some pitchers have trouble keeping their body under control, but that is not because they are unlucky. If a pitcher can control the opposition hitting home runs, why do pitchers allow that stuff?

 

And BTW, if you've never seen a pitcher's pitch hit for a home run then you have never seen a very good hitter in action.

If a pitcher has an inordinately high HR rate, or crazy low HR rate, it displays a trend. I'm sorry if I'm not slobbing Jackson's knob for his middling and unimpressive peripherals. Lots and lots of guys possess Jackson's stuff, and he's shown no reason to believe in his ability to harness it.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

If a pitcher has an inordinately high HR rate, or crazy low HR rate, it displays a trend. I'm sorry if I'm not slobbing Jackson's knob for his middling and unimpressive peripherals. Lots and lots of guys possess Jackson's stuff, and he's shown no reason to believe in his ability to harness it.

By this exact reasoning Gavin Floyd would have been absolute garbage not worth acquiring. Your kind has been proven wrong, so don't try to take you luck bulls*** and apply it elsewhere.

 

And no, lot's of guys do not have the type of stuff Edwin Jackson possesses. Saying that shows how little you know about baseball so just stop it already.

 

This is from a Baseball America article 5 years ago when he was in the Dodgers system.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/featu...0s/dodgers.html

 

Top Prospect: Edwin Jackson, RHP

 

Age: 20 Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 190 Bats: R Throws: R

Drafted: HS—Columbus, Ga., 2001 (6th round)

Signed by: Lon Joyce/Jim Lester

 

Background: First spotted by Dodgers scouts Jim Lester (now with the Pirates) and Lon Joyce when he was a center fielder at Shaw High in Columbus, Ga., Jackson also was the No. 3 starter behind Nick Long, now an Expos prospect, and Steven Register, now Auburn’s closer. Jackson reached 91 mph at the time, but Joyce’s first instinct was to make the most of his athleticism and bat potential in the outfield. The Dodgers weren’t sure which direction his career would head, so they allowed him to DH when he wasn’t pitching during in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League in 2001. They abandoned any thoughts of developing him as an outfielder the following spring, and his career took off. After beginning 2002 in extended spring training, Jackson jumped to low Class A South Georgia. He carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning of his first start and fell seven innings short of qualifying for the South Atlantic League ERA title, which he would have won. Jackson skipped another level to start the 2003 season as one of the youngest pitchers in Double-A. He became the youngest pitcher since Dwight Gooden to win his major league debut when he beat Randy Johnson in September.

 

Strengths: Jackson’s picturesque delivery, clean arm action and premium athleticism aid him in making 98 mph fastballs look effortless. He sits between 91-97 and can maintain his velocity deep into games. His slider and changeup both have come a long way since he made the full-time conversion to pitching, and while he’s not consistent with his secondary pitches he flashes above-average potential with both offerings. Each of his three pitches features plus life, with his fastball boring up into the zone, his slider showing hard bite and depth at times, and his circle changeup fading and sinking. Jackson demonstrates an advanced feel for pitching too, not afraid to pitch inside or double up on sliders and changeups. The Dodgers have done a fine job limiting Jackson’s workload. He was limited to around 100 pitches a start, and he was scratched from the Arizona Fall League to avoid putting more innings on his arm.

 

Weaknesses: Jackson has been unfazed by his rapid ascent. He still needs to gain consistency and confidence with his slider and changeup. Like many strikeout pitchers, he can amass lofty pitch counts. With three potential out pitches and plus command, that shouldn’t be an issue for long.

 

The Future: Jackson is the complete package, and fits the profile of a top-of-the-line starting pitcher to a tee. He established himself as one of the elite prospects in baseball even before his September callup, and his performance all but guaranteed him a spot in the Los Angeles rotation for 2004. He’s the best homegrown pitching prospect the Dodgers have developed since Pedro Martinez, and they don’t plan on letting this one get away.

 

Then they gave up on him and he ended up going to Tampa Bay. The only thing that has changed is that he has gotten big league experience and has improved his control.

[eickevinmorris]

By this exact reasoning Gavin Floyd would have been absolute garbage not worth acquiring. Your kind has been proven wrong, so don't try to take you luck bulls*** and apply it elsewhere.

 

And no, lot's of guys do not have the type of stuff Edwin Jackson possesses. Saying that shows how little you know about baseball so just stop it already.

 

This is from a Baseball America article 5 years ago when he was in the Dodgers system.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/featu...0s/dodgers.html

 

 

 

Then they gave up on him and he ended up going to Tampa Bay. The only thing that has changed is that he has gotten big league experience and has improved his control.

He also doesn't strike anyone out anymore. That changed.

 

What the f*** does this have to do with Gavin? He's not garbage -- he can strike people out and his season of success was actually good peripherally.