Dye to Reds Speculation

[Kyyle23]

Ah, I was about 4 days later than I thought.

 

Previously granted credit now revoked.

 

 

[heirdog]

I'll bet he doesn't. He's 19 years old. Most guys that are 19 are playing in rookie ball, not even in class A. Maybe the kid is a phenom, in the mold of Andruw Jones and Miguel Cabrera and is ready to play at the age of 20. But bear in mind most US kids who are drafted out of high school at the age of 18 take at least 3 years to make the bigs. Most college guys drafted at the age of 21-22 take at least a year, usually two. I hope I'm wrong, and this kid is ready to play, right away, but I'll be very, very surprised.

 

Besides, you say alexei didn't play because of Uribe, well maybe viciedo won't play because of Betemit...even if he is ready

 

That is if he is really 19. I bet he's closer to 24. Next thing you're gonna try and tell me is that Alexei is 27 or 28, whatever he's listed at. The guy's probably 32 but he's still good so I'll take him for another 3+ years.

[RockRaines]

That is if he is really 19. I bet he's closer to 24. Next thing you're gonna try and tell me is that Alexei is 27 or 28, whatever he's listed at. The guy's probably 32 but he's still good so I'll take him for another 3+ years.

Ehhhh, all sources point to their ages being accurate. If you are telling me you really believe Alexei's frame and face is indicative of a 32 year old, then I will have to tell you to get out of the house a little more.

[nitetrain8601]

That is if he is really 19. I bet he's closer to 24. Next thing you're gonna try and tell me is that Alexei is 27 or 28, whatever he's listed at. The guy's probably 32 but he's still good so I'll take him for another 3+ years.

 

I'll take Cubano's word over yours. Dayan is a legit 19 years old and Alexei is 26.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

The problem with flipping Vazquez is it appears other MLB teams don't find his $11.5 million salary as big of bargain as the Soxtalk consensus. Although maybe Boston would be interested. In Bill James (I believe the Red Sox still employ him) new book for 2009 he has Vazquez with a 3.80 ERA which is lower than he has for any other White Sox starter.

4/52 for Dempster

Lowe wants at least 4/60

Sheets will end up paid heavily despite the fact that he's never healthy for a full season, and is more of a 2/3 than an ace like he's talked up as even when he is healthy

Burnett is going to pick up a bad contract, at least 4/60 or probably more

 

And all of those guys who haven't signed will cost a first round draft pick to any top-15 team that signs them should those players move on to new organizations. Javy would get 15 or 16M per in this market, so he's definitely a bargain salary-wise (and in years if you don't like the idea of Sheets or Lowe or Burnett at 4 or 5 years) and I highly doubt teams think otherwise. Perhaps they are balking at Kenny's asking price but I doubt Kenny is asking a "bargain" price. Kenny will let the market shake itself out and then deal with the desperate teams once a few guys sign, and he'll only make a deal right now if his high asking price is met.

 

BTW, WTF does Bill James have to do with anything? His projections mean jack s***, no more than the average fan who says "I think Javy will do awesome next year," or "I think Javy will suck next year." In fact your average scout or fan's prediction would probably be a much better bet since they actually watch the player instead of using their calculators to make a dumbass statement.

[watchtower41]

Surprised I am the first to mention this 4 pages in... but I have to

 

 

Danny Richar anyone?

[Dick Allen]

4/52 for Dempster

Lowe wants at least 4/60

Sheets will end up paid heavily despite the fact that he's never healthy for a full season, and is more of a 2/3 than an ace like he's talked up as even when he is healthy

Burnett is going to pick up a bad contract, at least 4/60 or probably more

 

And all of those guys who haven't signed will cost a first round draft pick to any top-15 team that signs them should those players move on to new organizations. Javy would get 15 or 16M per in this market, so he's definitely a bargain salary-wise (and in years if you don't like the idea of Sheets or Lowe or Burnett at 4 or 5 years) and I highly doubt teams think otherwise. Perhaps they are balking at Kenny's asking price but I doubt Kenny is asking a "bargain" price. Kenny will let the market shake itself out and then deal with the desperate teams once a few guys sign, and he'll only make a deal right now if his high asking price is met.

 

BTW, WTF does Bill James have to do with anything? His projections mean jack s***, no more than the average fan who says "I think Javy will do awesome next year," or "I think Javy will suck next year." In fact your average scout or fan's prediction would probably be a much better bet since they actually watch the player instead of using their calculators to make a dumbass statement.

 

There are indications that Sheets, if offered arbitration, would accept it. Dempster is coming off a huge year. Lowe may want that money, but he won't get it. Burnett will get it but he's better than Javy and still is overpaid. The draft picks don't mean as much as you think, especially with teams picking near the bottom. That's a couple million saved instead of giving to a guy who probably is a longshot anyway, and nowhere near as good as the guy they signed. There is no way Javy gets $15-16 million in today's market. Bill James has been coming out with these books for years. Some guys he gets exactly right, some guys he gets wrong. He works as a consultant or something along those lines for the Red Sox. They seem to admire his work. If he thinks Javy will have a 3.80 ERA next year, maybe the Red Sox will pay up to get the loser. I also think this time next year, Dempster's contract will seem ridiculous. I think he'll get torched in 2009.

Edited November 25, 2008 by Dick Allen

[Chisoxfn]

I hadn't seen that you said that. I gotta give you credit, you were dead on about Dayan.

I quietly believe the Sox plan is to have Alexei in CF and Furcal at SS.

[iamshack]

There are indications that Sheets, if offered arbitration, would accept it. Dempster is coming off a huge year. Lowe may want that money, but he won't get it. Burnett will get it but he's better than Javy and still is overpaid. The draft picks don't mean as much as you think, especially with teams picking near the bottom. That's a couple million saved instead of giving to a guy who probably is a longshot anyway, and nowhere near as good as the guy they signed. There is no way Javy gets $15-16 million in today's market. Bill James has been coming out with these books for years. Some guys he gets exactly right, some guys he gets wrong. He works as a consultant or something along those lines for the Red Sox. They seem to admire his work. If he thinks Javy will have a 3.80 ERA next year, maybe the Red Sox will pay up to get the loser.

 

Well, I guess Burnett may have had better seasons than Javy, but I'll take Javy's healthy arm over Burnett's injury-ridden self any day of the week....I actually do think Javy would command between $13-15 million per.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

There are indications that Sheets, if offered arbitration, would accept it. Dempster is coming off a huge year. Lowe may want that money, but he won't get it. Burnett will get it but he's better than Javy and still is overpaid. The draft picks don't mean as much as you think, especially with teams picking near the bottom. That's a couple million saved instead of giving to a guy who probably is a longshot anyway, and nowhere near as good as the guy they signed. There is no way Javy gets $15-16 million in today's market. Bill James has been coming out with these books for years. Some guys he gets exactly right, some guys he gets wrong. He works as a consultant or something along those lines for the Red Sox. They seem to admire his work. If he thinks Javy will have a 3.80 ERA next year, maybe the Red Sox will pay up to get the loser.

Sheets I guess could accept arbitration but I'd bet against that. Teams always give out stupid deals.

 

Coming off a big year or not, Dempster still got a lot of money to be essentially a back-end guy in the future. I don't see any reason to believe he'll be a #3 starter or better for the remainder of his contract. It's not as bad as the Marquis signing was, but it's still a waste IMO. I'd have rather given that money to Garland because even though he regressed again last year he is younger and has proven his durability in the American League, most of it in a hitters park. Dempster was a guy who was an average at best closer in the NL and then had a career year.

 

Disagree on Lowe as well. He may not get 4+ years, but I think he walks away with $16M per. The big market teams will do the serious bidding.

 

Javy could interest the Red Sox and you are right, Bill James may be a reason, but they always offer us crap so I don't think that one gets done.

 

Also disagree on the draft picks. It probably doesn't matter a whole lot to the Yankees or Red Sox since they spend so much internationally and have no problems going over slot in the later rounds, but for the teams that think they will be feeling some strain, I think the draft picks become a huge issue.

[heirdog]

Ehhhh, all sources point to their ages being accurate. If you are telling me you really believe Alexei's frame and face is indicative of a 32 year old, then I will have to tell you to get out of the house a little more.

 

I should have put my post in green as it was said in jest. However, your point about frame and face are way off. There may be the "prototype" 32-year-old in your mind, but if YOU actually got out of the house a little more, you would know there are plenty of guys in their early to mid-30s that have baby faces and slight frames and look like they are in their mid- to late-20s (Alexei is 27 apparently )...not the norm but very possible.

 

 

[GreatScott82]

I quietly believe the Sox plan is to have Alexei in CF and Furcal at SS.

Hmm thats a possibility. I wouldn't even mind if Alexie stayed at 2b... Let Fields and Viciedo duke it out during ST for 3b. And go ahead and get a speedy CF, LFer via trade....

[Chisoxfn]

Bailey's value has significantly declined so I'd be hesitant at any deal centered around him involving a player of Dye's status. There is no doubting his talent but his velocity has been very inconsistent the past season to season and a half and with that his prospect status has crashed like the market. There is still a lot of raw potential and a great frame on his body but what causes the constant variations in velocity is something to be concerned with. Reds have a pretty solid system though so there could be another guy of value that could make the deal worthy. I don't believe Ryan Freel is that guy, although I think he'd be a nice piece to get, he isn't the type of guy you build a deal around Dye for (nor is Homer Bailey). Both would be secondary chips in my book.

[heirdog]

Why in the world do the Reds want Dye? Compensation picks in the future? Flipping him at the trade deadline when teams are desperate? Bailey seems similar to Floyd in terms of hype without results at the current time but we traded a worn out Garcia for him. We are talking about a All-Star caliber player here in Dye who is still producing big-time numbers so not sure Bailey and a throw-in works for me. We would need another high end prospect at the very least.

[Balta1701]

Bailey's value has significantly declined so I'd be hesitant at any deal centered around him involving a player of Dye's status. There is no doubting his talent but his velocity has been very inconsistent the past season to season and a half and with that his prospect status has crashed like the market. There is still a lot of raw potential and a great frame on his body but what causes the constant variations in velocity is something to be concerned with. Reds have a pretty solid system though so there could be another guy of value that could make the deal worthy. I don't believe Ryan Freel is that guy, although I think he'd be a nice piece to get, he isn't the type of guy you build a deal around Dye for (nor is Homer Bailey). Both would be secondary chips in my book.

I see what you're saying and sort of feel similarly, but out of the guys the Reds have who'd be more valuable than that (Votto, Cueto, Bruce, Volquez, and hell Phillips while we're at it)...I can't see them actually being willing to move any of those guys for JD.

 

Perhaps I could see them interested in moving Aaron Harang's contract, which balloons up this year. But other than their real good young guys, I'm not sure who else they'd have that fits that bill.

[Dick Allen]

Well, I guess Burnett may have had better seasons than Javy, but I'll take Javy's healthy arm over Burnett's injury-ridden self any day of the week....I actually do think Javy would command between $13-15 million per.

No way Vazquez would get that coming off the season he had. Especially the finish. The owners new "collusion" will be the economy. The big guys will get their money. The rest is a crapshoot, and it will all be blamed on the economy. Read Barry Rozner's column today, with quotes from KW about trimming payroll. He said he was going to anyway to go younger, but with the economy being what it is......................the White Sox raised ticket prices. I think a lot of free agents are going to get a lot less than they hoped for.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Well, I guess Burnett may have had better seasons than Javy, but I'll take Javy's healthy arm over Burnett's injury-ridden self any day of the week....I actually do think Javy would command between $13-15 million per.

Burnett never has been, nor will he ever be, better than Javy overall.

 

Burnett = 2 seasons of 30+ starts

Burnett = 3 seasons over 200IP

Javy = 10 seasons over 30+ starts

Javy = 8 seasons over 200IP

 

Both are the same age

 

Career lines:

Javy: 127-129; 4.32 ERA; 353 GS; 2270.2 IP; H/9 9.00; HR 1.19; 2.39 BB/9; 7.99 K/9; WHIP 1.27

Burnett: 87-76; 3.81 ERA; 211 GS; 1376.1 IP; H/9 7.84; HR/9 0.80; BB/9 3.71; K/9 8.36; WHIP 1.28

 

The peripherals say they're pretty close. Javy gives up an extra hit per 9 but Burnett walks an extra man per 9. WHIP's are almost identical and K/9 and HR/9 favor Burnett slightly. The main difference is that 353 starts compared to 211 starts, and the fact that Javy has about 900 more innings in the Majors. Javy is not a health risk while Burnett is. Both are seemingly all-or-nothing pitchers.

 

Javy >>> Burnett.

 

2 years of Javy at $11.5M per >>>>>>>> 4-5 years of Burnett at $15-16M per.

[BearSox]

Homer Bailey would have to be a throw in for a trade for Dye. His velocity is way down and doesn't seem like he has much of a future right now.

[Kyyle23]

I quietly believe the Sox plan is to have Alexei in CF and Furcal at SS.

 

this is the opposite of quiet

[scenario]

I quietly believe the Sox plan is to have Alexei in CF and Furcal at SS.

 

Ditto.

 

[iamshack]

Ditto.

 

The "mystery team" is supposedly the Braves, but I suppose we could be in on Furcal....I don't personally believe it, however.

[yoyozuna]

The "mystery team" is supposedly the Braves, but I suppose we could be in on Furcal....I don't personally believe it, however.

I heard he is asking for 4/48. Do you think KW would be willing to spend that on a SS?

[Kyyle23]

Furcal is an all world talent, but hasnt he been injured for the better part of the last couple years?

[iamshack]

I heard he is asking for 4/48. Do you think KW would be willing to spend that on a SS?

 

Yes, but only because Furcal could also fulfill the leadoff role in our lineup....otherwise, not so much...

[RockRaines]

I heard he is asking for 4/48. Do you think KW would be willing to spend that on a SS?

Yes, actually. It fills two holes, three moving Alexei to CF. He has to unload either Javy's or Dye's contract first though. This is one of the reasons we will try in house options at 3B and maybe LF.